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With another black-swan in crypto and another leg down, this time due to FTX. We are now officially in the second-longest bear market ever, an achievement I do not know whether we should be proud of. Especially as with the current sentiment globally, this could very well be the most brutal and longest bear market.
Firstly, what is a bear market and how to define it? A bear market is basically a long period where the price remains significantly below the recent ATH. There is no fixed negative percentage to define one (stock markets use 20%) and its measured from ATH to the bear market low.
LOG chart of BTC on TradingView
As we can now see that we are indeed longer in a bear market than during the 2018 “crypto winter“, even if we have hit our bottom right now (which is highly unlikely).
To become the greatest crypto bear market we are not too dar off either, the 2013-2015 bear market took 415 days, which would put us in early January which is very likely to still be in a bear market.
So be happy as you can soon call yourself a survivor of the most brutal and most long crypto bear market in history and that is not easy. Millions of people left the markets and we are truly the last ones standing. For coming this far and possibly even further, you all deserve a pat on your back. Well Done!
DeFi on Solana is being wiped out, so to speak.
At the start of the month, TVL on the chain was close to $1bn. Now it has crashed to $280m and is out of top 10.
The crash has been nothing short of spectacular
At the peak of the bull run, Solana boasted close to $10 BN in TVL. Now it down to 2.8% of that. Absolute carnage.
Solana has been plagued with one disaster after another - first the numerous chain halts, then the revelation that one team was responsible for most of TVL by creating double entries, now the final nail in the coffin has been the implosion of Sam, brining with it the downfall of the chain he shilled so much. Many exchanges are cutting down on exposure to Solana, Even stablecoins are migrating liquidity to other chains
Do you think this chain can pull itself together after all the fiascos?
With all the drama and debate around the credibility of exchanges holding your crypto, exchanges have now released their own proof of reserves to gain trust and assure customers that they have enough crypto for their needs but one trend is clearly saying otherwise.
The bitcoin supply on exchanges has just fallen to a new low since April of 2018, when the BTC price was just $6.9k and there were millions of fewer users on exchanges.
Chart from BTC_Archive on twitter
This trend clearly suggests that overall exchanges are having fewer and fewer crypto and its obvious that this is not proportional to the rising user numbers. So at one point many exchanges wont have enough crypto let every user withdraw in other words are not holding their assets 1:1 as hoped.
Now we got a lot of proof of reserves suggesting that some exchanges indeed have good balance sheets but trusting those reports is an other question. ANd to be honest I would personally not want to take that risk with my money and be on the safer side by not having most of my crypto on exchanges and only have some there for trading actively or in the process of converting to fiat.
https://imgur.com/hfRlKoI.png Picture to show price at the time.
We are living historic times right now. Never before has there been a time span this long, over which Bitcoin price has gone down. If you had bought Bitcoin at the peak hype of 2017, and hodled until today, you would have lost money, even without adjusting for inflation.
The milestone of a 5-year negative price development is looming right ahead of us. Even if the price goes up a bit from here, the famous 20k peak of 2017 is at December 17th, which is another large threat to reaching the infamous milestone.
Similarly, the market dominance of Bitcoin is also at a 4.5 year low, as Bitcoin was hit by the FTX crash harder than the market average.
What Is The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Indicator?
The Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin. It uses a logarithmic growth curve to forecast the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. It overlays rainbow color bands on top of the logarithmic growth curve channel in an attempt to highlight market sentiment at each rainbow color stage as price moves through it. Therefore, highlighting potential opportunities to buy or sell.
Bitcoin price usually stays within the rainbow color bands of the logarithmic growth channel.
But now Bitcoin price broken below blue rainbow color band after BTC price dropped to 17,107.
Because Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset class, its price movements are highly volatile. Although on a macro timeline Bitcoin is being adopted, which we can see in the general upwards price movement, it does experience market cycles. During these market cycles, the price of Bitcoin can increase parabolically and also drop very quickly. It also has very high daily volatility which investors need to be aware of BTC rainbow chart highlights where BTC price is in those cycles and provides a viewpoint on investor strategy. As mentioned earlier in this article, this chart and its legend labels are for entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment advice. The warmer upper colors of the rainbow chart show when the market is likely overheated. Such periods have historically proven to be good times for the strategic investor to begin taking some profits.
BTC to 10k next?
Hi everyone,
After a turbulent day with an insane amount of trading volume a lot of crypto assets were liquidated. In this post I'll put the liquidation statistics from the latest 24h.
The stats in the past 24h at the time of writing:
- In the past 24 hours, $891.37M of assets were liquidated.
- Liquidated longs and shorts: $620.90M were longs (69.66%) and $270.47M were shorts (30.34%).
- 404.567 traders were liquidated.
- Top 3 Liquidations: $299.61M of BTC, $238.80M of ETH and $59.09M of SOL.
- The largest single liquidation order happened on Bitmex - XBTUSD value $10.00M.
Thanks for reading!
Hey fellow money losers,
I am currently in the midst of conducting scientific work on the crypto/nft/DeFi sector and I am actively looking for studies or scientific papers on the mass adoption of said field.
I am talking about specific studies or findings beyond the usual metrics of simple market cap numbers.
If anyone knows papers of that nature, I would be really grateful if you could point it out to me.
For anyone interested: My work will be mainly about the Problems illicit use of crypto assets impose and how that could be tackled in the favor of the crypto sector as I believe for mass adoption we will have to face those problems.
I wich you all diamond hands 💎
Blockchain Center made a page to show what would be the result if MicroStrategy had bought Ethereum instead of Bitcoin.
Using the entire capital they have outlaid so far to buy BTC, if they had instead bought ETH instead, MSTR would have 3.5 Million ETH now.
In dollar terms, Instead of being down $1.3 billion on their investment, MSTR would be up $1.6 Bn. Thats a delta of almost $3 Billion..
Even if they buy ETH now with all their BTC, MSTR could have 1.6 Million ETH.
If they stake this 1.6 Million ETH,, they would earn $134 Million every year from staking that ETH (at current price and staking return rate). According to this site, Microstrategy has never made so much operating income in its history.
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/there-is-no-second-best/
People crying in comments about choosing shitcoin, relax, its just a joke on "Second Best" since ETH is in second now, not your shitcoin xD
Arbitrum and Optimism have both already flipped Solana in terms of TVL.
TVL of top 10 chains. Source: DefiLlama
As of now, Solana's TVL has dropped below $1bn and has lost 22% of its TVL in the last month, in a major blow to the project.
And Arbitrum doesnt even have a native token (yet!). But it has already leapfrogged Solana both in terms of TVL and also in number of projects deployed on the network. Having a native token means a portion of the token's supply is deployed in various DeFi protocols, thereby increasing the chain's TVL. This is the case with Solana, where Solana's native token SOL is deployed into various Liquid staking protocols, CDPs, DEX LPs and lending pools, thereby increasing the TVL on Solana network. Arbitrum doesn't even have a token, yet has amassed over $1bn in real TVL.
Another interesting fact is that now 9 of the top 10 chains are all EVM compatible chains. Solana is the only one that is a non-EVM chain.
Edit:
Currently Arbitrum is quite centralized. L2s use sequencers and validators to generate fraud proofs, and currently the Arbitrum team operates these and therefore the L2 is quite centralized.
https://l2beat.com/scaling/risk/ - you can click over the yellow box to see the security assumption risks under which L2s are currently operating. Right now, all the L2s are centralized to various degrees.
The technology to decentralize sequencers is still being developed. It is around 12-24 months away. No one really thought that L2s would be big in 2022 itself, and Zk-rollups are also almost nearing mainnet launch. The initial belief was zk-rollups wouldn't be live till 2025. Tech in this space moves very fast
Launching a token helps decentalize the network. The base layer gas token cannot be used to decentralize a L2 rollup that is built on top of the base layer, or govern the L2 network.
I tried unsuccessfully to find a good resource that regularly updates/calculates the current inflation rates for cryptocurrencies. So now I do it for myself.
What is inflation of a crypto?
I am invested into a small number of projects, but one key factor I focus heavily on is the inflationary nature of the native token or coin for a project. At its core basis is the idea of supply and demand. Simply put, if supply outstrips demand, then the price of the crypto will drop.
The Inflation of a coin is simply the rate at which it is currently increasing its supply every year. I.e. If a token has a 2% inflation rate, then one year from now, 2% more tokens are available to buy.
The circulating supply of a token can drop for a number of reasons such as a burning or lost keys. Supply can increase for minting, rewards, staking or token unlocks.
Inflation can be a good thing for some projects in early stages, but overall a low rate of inflation will keep the buying pressure high. For example, Bitcoin's inflation rate in 2012 was 32% and halved the following year. So if the project is under a year old, you can cut it some slack for now. But if it's still hitting double figure inflation after three years, it is not in good shape.
Max Supply:
It is worth noting that some projects have a maximum number of tokens that can ever be put into circulation, whereas some projects have an infinite supply, meaning the number of tokens can increase forever. For example, Bitcoin can never exceed 21million coins.
Ethereum Merge:
An important milestone occurred last month when Ethereum finally moved from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. This is expected to lower the level of inflation over time for ETH.
Calculations:
I have taken the numbers from coinmarketcap at 31 Oct 2021 and 31 Oct 2022 (today). Anyone can verify these if they wish. I've calculated inflation simply as:
Inflation Rate % = (2022 Supply / 2021 Supply ) - 1
Results:
| TOKEN | INFLATION RATE | 2021 SUPPLY | 2022 SUPPLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | - 4.09 % | 166,801,148 | 159,978,504 |
| Shiba Inu | - 0.01 % | 549,095,509,738,353 | 549,063,278,876,302 |
| Cronos | 0.00 % | 25,263,013,692 | 25,263,013,692 |
| Nano | 0.00 % | 133,248,297 | 133,248,297 |
| Fantom | 0.00 % | 2,545,006,273 | 2,545,006,273 |
| Dogecoin | 0.56 % | 131,929,723,836 | 132,670,764,300 |
| Bitcoin | 1.77 % | 18,860,168 | 19,194,206 |
| Cardano | 3.17 % | 33,271,310,416 | 34,325,270,611 |
| Ethereum | 3.57 % | 118,156,446 | 122,373,863 |
| XRP | 6.53 % | 47,015,237,181 | 50,085,407,159 |
| Algorand | 14.01 % | 6,194,033,655 | 7,061,993,140 |
| Polkadot | 14.58 % | 987,579,315 | 1,131,550,789 |
| Harmony One | 18.48 % | 10,777,987,196 | 12,769,222,408 |
| Solana | 19.05 % | 301,367,632 | 358,775,865 |
| Cosmos | 27.95 % | 223,815,498 | 286,370,297 |
| Polygon | 28.75 % | 6,783,681,381 | 8,734,317,475 |
| Avalanche | 35.51 % | 220,286,577 | 298,505,863 |
| Hedera | 52.93 % | 15,018,941,582 | 22,968,168,351 |
| Internet Computer | 54.18 % | 174,431,259 | 268,931,411 |
| Near | 54.32 % | 529,643,442 | 817,345,537 |
| Flow | 236.28 % | 308,132,424 | 1,032,200,000 |
| Luna Classic | 1,644,822.00 % | 400,688,919 | 6,591,020,165,368 |
Some projects publish their expected inflation rate. For example, Bitcoin's estimated inflation rate for the year was 1.77% - which was absolutely perfect.
I will reserve judgement for now as to which projects show more or less potential for value increase based on supply and demand only. How does your project choice measure up? What is the advertised rate according the white paper tokenomics? How close is it to the actual numbers?
If you are concerned about your investments, check the numbers against several other sources. CoinGecko would be another good place to start.
Also, if somebody can please give me a reliable circulating supply for Moons one year ago, I will add them to the table. The current circulating supply is already available at 104,2725,031.
EDIT: Requested by users in the comments:
| Tron | 28.75 % | 71,659,657,369 | 92,262,421,589 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elrond | 20.12 % | 19,669,188 | 23,627,340 |
| Ankr | 18.38 % | 8,162,899,378 | 9,662,899,378 |
| Chainlink | 6.29 % | 462,509,554 | 491,599,970.45 |
| Monero | 1.00 % | 18,014,104 | 18,194,506.79 |
| Loopring | 0.60 % | 1,322,208,249 | 1,330,133,546 |
| Vechain | 12.77 % | 64,315,576,989 | 72,511,146,418 |
| Quant | 0.00 % | 12,072,738 | 12,072,738 |
| Icon | 36.68 % | 672,735,872 | 919,483,096 |
| Kadena | 28.37 % | 154,273,442 | 198,047,245 |
| Rose | 235.16 % | 1,500,000,000 | 5,027,383,223 |
I'm not here to talk about Matt Damon. I'm sure he probably couldn't care less how Crypto.com is doing since he apparently got paid in cash anyway.
Let's take a look at the history of the exchange since the day of the famous commercial launch.
For reference, I'll compare it to Bitcoin. The commercial premiered exactly one year ago. Had you bought $1,000 worth of Bitcoin on that day, you would have just ~$400 now. That's a loss of 60%.
Timeline of Crypto.com from the commercial to now (the one-year anniversary).
| Date | Event | CRO Price |
|---|---|---|
| 29 October 2021 | Commercial launch | 21 c |
| 4 November 2021 | Token listed on Coinbase | 29 c |
| 11 November 2021 | Staples Centre Rebrand | 35 c |
| 24 November 2021 | CRO All Time High | 97 c |
| 1 December 2021 | Buys Nadex for $216m | 61 c |
| 7 January 2022 | Two ads banned in UK | 50 c |
| 18 January 2022 | Withdrawals paused on platform after $30 hack | 45 c |
| 9 February 2022 | Withdraws sponsorship from Champions League | 47 c |
| 23 March 2022 | FIFA World Cup sponsorship announcement | 42 c |
| 3 May 2022 | Perks and Staking Rewards slashed | 29 c |
| 6 June 2022 | 260 employees sacked | 17 c |
| 29 June 2022 | Rewards and earn slashed again | 12 c |
| 12 July 2022 | Rewards slashed again | 11 c |
| 25 July 2022 | Spotify/Netflix perk removed from lower cards | 12 c |
| 21 August 2022 | Sueing user who accidentally received $10m | 11 c |
| 29 October 2022 | Current price today | 11 c |
In the past year, Crypto.com’s exchange volume has also dropped by 91%, from $4 billion to $380 million per day.
What was the investment return?
Based on the current price of roughly 11c....
Buying CRO on the day of the commercial (21c) would mean a return of -46% today.
Selling at the top in late November (97c) would have yielded a return of +360%, or a 3.6x.
Buying at the top, would have yielded a return of -89%.
Fortune favored some brave people I suppose....
EDIT: OK, so a user reported me for the suicide watch. My allocation to CRO isn't that high and I can always find more celebrities. I'm all good, but thanks for your concern!
