How good at predicting the future are we? How quickly does time move in the NBA? What is time, even?
I was curious to know how NBA opinions and predictions aged, so I listened to about 6 podcasts from the 2017 offseason (mostly Simmons/The Ringer) and wrote down every interesting take (good or bad).
Before we leave the present day for the past, let me remind you of what the 2017 off-season was while we still have our hindsight glasses on:
Boston was a good team who had the #1 pick (Brooklyn trade) and traded back with Philly for #3 and a future pick. They picked Tatum with #3. Fultz and Lonzo went 1/2.
Other notables in the draft include De’aaron Fox (#5) Donovan Mitchell (#13), Lauri (#7), Bam (#14), and a ton of good role players.
Chicago traded Jimmy Butler to Minnesota for Lavine and the pick that became Lauri.
Indy traded Paul George to OKC for Sabonis/Oladipo.
Clippers traded Chris Paul to the Rockets.
Cavs traded Kyrie to Boston for Isaiah Thomas and a Nets pick.
Gordon Hayward was the jewel of FA and signed with Boston
5 years doesn’t seem that long ago, but Kawai was still in San Antonio, Jeff Teague was still relevant, and people thought Kristaps Porzingis might become one of the best players ever.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s get into the time machine.
Pre-draft, post Philly/Boston trade (no other trades have happened yet) pod from Simmons:
The sentiment seems to be that Boston lost the Fultz for #3+Kings pick trade, but speculation that there might be something up with Fultz that we don’t know about.
No one is high on Tatum or Josh Jackson (either could go at 3), as Lonzo and Fultz are seen as clearly better, and there’s speculation that Boston will trade the 3rd pick for Jimmy Butler
Markelle Fultz doesn’t have the highest ceiling but he’s the safest bet and will definitely be great, even if he doesn’t become a HOFer.
Lots of Celtics talk (surprise). Few people seem to be interested in Celtics building around Jaylen Brown and #3 (which becomes Tatum). People think they should trade for AD (still on NO) or PG (still on Indy) or Butler (still on Chicago) or sign big name FAs. Not much faith in Danny Ainge’s drafting. No excitement for Jaylen/Tatum/Smart. Simmons thinks Isaiah Thomas is too popular in Boston to ever trade away…(this was right before the Kyrie trade)
Simmons: “Can Josh Jackson be Kawhi Leonard?” KOC: “No” (proceeds to have concerns about his shooting) Simmons: “Can Tatum be Paul Pierce?” KOC: “Yes”
Simmons says GS will win the next two titles anyway and that everyone should build for the future and forget win-now moves. (Raptors traded for Kawhi the next season and won the title)
Simmons says he doesn’t think Paul George is a number one guy. Thinks he’s a really good number 3 guy. (He was 3rd in MVP voting in OKC just 2 years later. I don’t remember people being so low on post-injury Pacers PG but he’s being referred to as a high level role player)
Titus joins the call and says he thinks Sixers won the Fultz/Tatum trade. No one on the pod understands what Ainge is trying to do and they mock him by saying he’s “playing 4D Chess” and “overthinking it” and that Fultz is a no-brainer.
Offhand mentions of Michael Porter Jr (the following class) possibly being a better prospect than anyone from this class.
They think Tatum is a low-ceiling, high-floor player who will just be pretty good but not great.
Bill thinks Kennard is akin to Joe Alexander and Nik Stauskas in that he’s a workout warrior who will get drafted too high and can’t be a starter on a champion.
Bill’s dad thinks the Fultz for 3+future pick is the worst trade in Boston history.
Bill and his dad would have liked to trade Terry Rozier for Richaun Holmes and don’t sound high on Rozier. They also seem way way higher on Avery Bradley than Marcus Smart and don’t seem super high on Jaylen Brown
Thinks that the Hornets should move on from Kemba Walker and find a new franchise player. (He made 3 all-star games after this comment was made, yet also is already out of the league, so I don’t even know if this was a good take or not. Time moves fast in the NBA.)
Simmons mock draft podcast with KOC:
Nets just traded for D’Angelo Russell. Both think that D’Angelo Russell is going to be great and that the Lakers gave up on him too early.
In a round of quick player discussions (some vets, some incoming rookies): Bobby Portis “might be an okay player someday” but is a flier. Harry Giles is a flier. OG Anunoby is a flier. Cedi Osman will be good. Marquese Chriss will be really good.
Simmons said he proposed a fake Porzingis+8 for Devin Booker+4 trade and that everyone debated it and people picked both teams as winners in the hypothetical. KP seems to have more trade value than Booker.
Simmons would trade #3 (Tatum) and a future pick for KP. Simmons ranks trade value among young “franchise” bigs around the league as: 1. Giannis. 2. KAT 3. KP 4. Jokic. But then debates AD vs Giannis so maybe AD is #2?
There are rumors of Chris Paul going to Houston. They ask how would CP and Harden possibly work together? That would be a train wreck. KOC thinks it’s a smokescreen and that there’s no way Houston would actually be interested in trading for Chris Paul. Simmons says Morey likes to send smokescreens and this is clearly one. (Chris Paul was traded to the Rockets one week later)
Simmons is upset that Josh Jackson won’t work out for the Celtics and seems to be talking himself into Tatum being a good pick at 3 instead of Jackson.
KOC thinks Kings shouldn’t draft Fox at 5 because Ntilikina or Dennis Smith will be available at 10. Simmons says that plan would be too smart for the Kings.
Bill thinks Ben Simmons choosing to not go to Summer League is a sign of bad work ethic.
Fultz/Embiid/Simmons are an incredible young nucleus that will win lots of games if Embiid stays healthy. That’s the only X factor.
Discussion of Lonzo Ball potentially becoming a HOF caliber player. They think Lonzo and LeBron is a perfect pairing if bron goes to LA
Jae Crowder is a 9th man on a good team and his defense has gotten bad.
KOC thinks DeAndre Jordan is worth ~ the 5th pick in the draft. Simmons thinks that’s crazy and thinks he’s worth the 10th-15th pick.
Lauri won’t be a good player and is being overrated - will be one of the worst players from the first round and shouldn’t be a lottery pick.
Both do not like Lavine at all. Both seem higher on Kris Dunn than Lavine.
Simmons wants his Celtics to trade 3 (Tatum) to Kings for 5 and 10 and to take Monk at 5.
KOC seems higher on Donovan Mitchell than the projected rankings.
KOC would pick OG Anonouby at 10. Simmons says that’s way too high because he’s hurt.
Simmons says he doesn’t think Vucevic has any trade value (the Magic eventually got Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr, and a future first for him)
All agree that the Nets have the bleakest future in the league. 5 years later we look at them as failures for not winning 2 titles in the past 3 years. Things change QUICK.
Simmons post-draft pod:
Started with a bombshell. Minnesota traded Lavine, Dunn, pick for Jimmy Butler. Simmons thinks it’s horrible horrible horrible for Chicago. One of the worst trades he’s ever seen. Then to make things worse, Chicago uses the pick (#7), to make a horrible pick (Lauri Markkanen) - everyone predicts he will be worse than Kelly Olynyk and Channing Frye. They think Dennis Smith Jr or Malik Monk would have been much better picks. Also seem low on Kris Dunn and Lavine, thinking Lavine won’t ever become anything special.
Simmons predicts Hayward to Boston and House thinks he’s full of BS.
Charlotte = big winners. Malik Monk will be a star.
Simmons can’t help but wonder why the Celtics cooled on Fultz and wonders if there’s a legit reason why the Celtics traded back from the first pick
House fake laughs at a Simmons joke
No team can ever win anything with Wiggins as the team’s best or 2nd best offensive player but that he’d be a fantastic 3rd best player (pretty on the money tbh)
Simmons thinks Tatum will be as good as Danny Granger but worse than Paul Pierce. You can tell House thinks this is classic Bill Simmons Celtics homerism (overrating Tatum) and thinks it’s a bad take.
Bill Simmons really likes Deaaron Fox and brings up the fact that Lonzo went ahead of him even though Fox outplayed him in college. Thinks Kings were smart for drafting Fox, but thinks Kings trading #10 for #15 and #20 was dumb. (Honestly, all of this was spot on)
Bill says this is an 11 player draft and that things plummet after Malik Monk at 11. (Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo went 13 and 14)
Bill really really really liked Malik Monk. It feels like 20 minutes of this podcast is Bill calling teams dumb for not drafting Malik Monk.
Bill still keeps talking about Malik Monk. It’s been another 10 minutes and he keeps coming back to him.
House calls Jeanie Buss the biggest winner of the week for adding Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka as GMs…
Simmons predicts Giannis will absolutely take over the league
The Ringer Free-agency primer:
Bill and House think Chris Paul and Harden aren’t enough to win a title and they need a Melo/Gallinari/etc to win a title.
Bill and House debate Blake Griffin’s value. Bill thinks he could still be, at best case-scenario, the 12th best player in the league.
Tyler Johnson and James Johnson have good trade value/are good players with good futures. Hassan Whiteside is a building block
Bill says Wiggins a horrible defensive player, cites stats that call him a bottom-4 defender in the league, and calls him a joke
Bill says if a new plague ever sweeps America, it will be from a virus that grew in one of those batting cage/arcade places
Gordon Hayward is a franchise player
John Wall is one of the best players in the league and the Wizards are fresh off of their best season of the last 40 seasons
Last year, Washington cleared cap some to try to sign Durant, missed, and signed In Mahinmi to a huge deal that they now already sorely regret 1 year later.
House thinks Aldridge is washed. Simmons thinks he’s a good asset in the right situation.
Greg Monroe is unstoppable in the post
Ringer NBA show FA winners/losers and Summer League talk:
Vernon says the three players standing out amongst rookies at Summer League are Jason Tatum, Dennis Smith Jr, and Donovan Mitchell
Tatum’s stock has risen a lot since the draft, they seem amazed that Tatum looks better than Jaylen Brown already.
Vernon predicts a huge leap for Jokic and said his first all-star game was just the beginning and we could see a Giannis-like leap
Lauri Markkanen looks like the only bad player from the lottery in the summer league
Bam Adebayo looks like a steal
Donovan Mitchell will be good in this league even if his offense never develops because he’s so good at defense.
Utah trading up for Mitchell might’ve been the smartest move of the summer
Vernon says at least 2 of Frank Mason, Marshon Brooks, and Sindarius Thornwell will have long NBA careers
Trading Oladipo and Sabonis for Paul George was the best/smartest decision of the summer
KOC likes the Toronto resignings of Lowry and Ibaka, (and it sounds like the public is not high on Toronto’s moves) Both KOC and Vernon think Patrick Patterson is way better than Ibaka though.
Both think Nick Young is going to be killer on GSW and that Jordan Bell will be better than Javale McGee was for the Warriors. I forgot Swaggy P ever played for the Warriors, tbh
They think Sabonis might be an okay player someday (sounds as if they think a 4th best starter on an average team is his ceiling and it seems like they’re higher on him than the public at the time)
Vernon recapping the first week of FA with Tas Melas:
Grim outlook of the East. Best Eastern teams as of now: Cavs (but everyone knows LeBron is LeAving), Celtics, Raptors, Wizards and a BLEAK outlook of everyone else “The Bucks will be just okay…Heat will be just okay….some awful teams are going to make the playoffs for the next few years”
If Mudiay doesn’t become good, Nuggets won’t be a playoff team
The Ringer pod right after CP3 trade:
Preseason pod with KOC and Vernon:
Both think that Spurs resigning LaMarcus is a good idea but both show slight concern with Kawhi’s injury as he “might be out a couple of weeks.” Vernon can’t see Spurs trading Kawhi
KOC said some guy from Reddit emailed him 7 times from 7 accounts with a message starting with “Chris Paul and James Harden are frauds” with a long list of the failures of each.
KOC thinks CP3+Harden can make a WCF and possibly be contenders, Vernon doesn’t think they can
Vernon thinks Melo will be great in OKC
Another Ringer FA pod:
Bill Simmons says Indiana got too little for Paul George (Sabonis and Oladipo) and should have traded him to Boston, where they could’ve gotten a better package of Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and two non-lotto picks
Everyone (like literally everyone on every podcast I’ve listened to) thinks the Patrick Patterson signing was fantastic for OKC
Joel Embiid ($140m over 5 years) extension is CRAZY and an overpay. Greg Oden has played 51 more games than Embiid has. People only like Embiid because he’s funny on social media and this will end up being a bad contract because he won’t be healthy and won’t ever be elite. KOC brings up Bill Walton and said he was an MVP player when healthy and got laughed at for thinking Embiid would ever be MVP level.
Then I listened to the Dunc’d on podcast, which is less focused on entertainment and more focused on nuance. Dunc’d On post-draft takes:
They also think Chicago got fleeced in the Butler trade, but add “Lavine is the worst player in the NBA who has logged 1000+ minutes”
“Maybe before he got hurt, you could squint and see Lavine as the 3rd best player on an okay team, but he won’t be that good post-injury, and it’s hard to ever see Lauri or Lavine be a good starter on a good team”
Sounds like George Hill is more highly regarded than Jrue Holiday and Kyle Lowry
It’s hard to see a future with Jaylen Brown + Jason Tatum together. Boston has too many wings and Brown looks better than Tatum. Duncan liked Jonathan Issac and Dennis Smith better than Tatum.
De’Aaron Fox isn’t as good as Dennis Smith or Ntilikina, but he’s a model citizen and at this point, Sacramento needs guys who want to be there, so it’s an okay pick for that reason.
Woj apparently reported that NY offered Porzingis to Phoenix for Booker+4. Both Duncan and Danny say they would’ve done it if they were Phoenix. Both think KP will be way better than Booker going forward.
Apparently Isola reported that Boston offered Jaylen Brown + #3 (Tatum) for Porzingis and NY said no. Both Duncan and Danny think it’s a slight overpay for Boston, but that it’s close to fair value and they would consider doing it if they were Boston.
Michael Porter Jr would’ve been the #1 pick in this draft if he could’ve come out as a high schooler.
They don’t like Portland picking Zach Collins at 10. They like Nurkic a lot better and don’t think Zach can be a modern 4.
Danny thinks Detroit should’ve taken Donovan Mitchell instead of Luke Kenard
Denver trades down from 13 to Utah and picks up Trey Lyles in the process. Utah picks Donovan Mitchell at 13. Mitchell can be a good insurance policy if Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood leave. Duncan thinks Denver won the trade and likes Lyles
They like Miami drafting Bam at 14 “reasonably well.” He can never be a starting 5, and he can’t play next to cornerstone Whiteside, but he’ll be a solid backup 5 and that’s a win at this point in the draft.
They don’t like the TJ Leaf pick for Indy. He doesn’t have a place in the modern NBA. John Collins has tools but he is a 4/5 tweener and doesn’t have a position. He’ll be a good bench player.
Skal Labissière and Harry Giles will be a legit starting frontcourt for the Kings in the future.
Jarrett Allen has the ability to eventually be a starting center (was the 22nd pick and they were low on many players picked before him, so good prediction)
OG Anunoby (23rd pick) has great defensive tools but probably won’t ever be able to shoot and his injury issues are concerning.
Kyle Kuzma will be an okay bench player. Tony Bradley is just meh.
Derrick White drafted with the 29th pick. They said he was 6’0” going into college. He was only offered 3 scholarships; none of them were DII or higher, and one was a culinary school. Worked his way up to DI through transfers. He’s a late bloomer (23 at draft) and they like him, but think the clock ran out and that he’ll never turn into anything.
Takes that all pods agree on:
Lavine is horrible and won’t ever be great. Patrick Patterson is great. Porzingis is HOF talent. Fultz is worth top pick. Lonzo is worth 2nd. Dennis Smith will be a star.
What did we learn from this? Personally, I learned that we don’t know anything. Next time I hear anyone say matter of factly that ____ is washed or ____ will be a star, I’m going to be skeptical.
I was also surprised that Simmons/The Ringer seemed to have more accurate predictions than Nate Duncan and Danny from Dunc’d On, since they’re more cap savvy and seem to be nerdier.
What stands out to you?
