Last night at the Oklahoma governor's debate, the Democratic candidate correctly stated that Oklahoma has worse crime rates than New York and California - https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1582894307169951744. People laughed at her statement, including her opponent.

It's true, though. See https://twitter.com/BryanDawsonUSA/status/1582917496843010048 for one of many people affirming that her statement was correct, Oklahoma does have worse crime rates than California or New York.

We recently had a discussion here related to the Third Wave's report on how states that sent electors for Trump had much worse crime rates (specifically criminal homicide) than states that sent electors for Biden. Responses were mixed because the data is mixed. My take on that discussion is there's no 100% clear correlation between politics and crime, but GOP claims that "blue states" are crime ridden hell holes simply doesn't stand up to facts.

There's an article in the Atlantic today, What’s Really Going On With the Crime Rate?, that points out some of these issues and how they are often mischaracterized, then talks about a new study by the Center for American Progress that compares cities that have elected so-called progressive prosecutors with places whose district attorneys continue to pursue more traditional approaches. I can't find the study yet, so I hesitate to post second hand information, but as it matches up well with other things we already knew that I wanted to kick off a discussion.

The Atlantic article states today's situation this way

Republicans are pinning higher crime rates on Democrats who have expressed sympathy for almost any aspect of the movement to confront racial inequities in the criminal-justice system.

...

These attacks assume that the changes in criminal-justice policies that some states and many cities have pursued over the past few years are undermining public safety and fueling higher crime rates.

That seems accurate to me. The study, though, found that's not true.

Countering conventional wisdom, the study found that homicides over recent years increased less rapidly in cities with progressive prosecutors than in those with more traditional district attorneys. It also found no meaningful differences between cities with progressive or traditional DAs in the trends for larceny and robbery. “I think it’s really important to emphasize the extent to which we looked for a relationship and found none” between a prosecutors’ commitment to reform and crime rates, Todd Foglesong, a fellow in residence at the University of Toronto and one of the co-authors, told me.

and

Looking at the period from 2015 to 2019, for instance, the study found that murder rates increased in a smaller share of cities with progressive prosecutors (56 percent) than in those with traditional prosecutors (68 percent) or prosecutors who fell in the middle (62 percent). (The study used a classification system for local DAs developed by a former federal prosecutor who is a critic of the progressive movement.) What’s more, the absolute number of murders increased by more in the cities with traditional and moderate prosecutors than in those with progressive ones.

Lastly

But as the CAP report notes, the political problem for progressive prosecutors is that there’s no clear alternative explanation for rising crime. And so long as that’s true, the authors write, criminal-justice reforms will remain a tempting target, as the 2022 electoral season is dramatically demonstrating.

This last paragraph I think it really important for centrists to take in. We don't know why crime rates have gone up across the board, and we don't know if the slower increase in places with "progressive" DAs are related in any way to the DAs themselves.

We must resist the urge to ascribe blame without proof simply because loud partisan voices are saying that it's due to "progressive" DAs or police funding. We must also resist the counter-argument that "progressive" DAs lead to lower crime.

Here's what we know - there was a spike in crime during the pandemic, the spike affected areas differently, but everywhere in the US had that spike. What we don't know is if there was any political reason for this increase or how to bring the numbers back down.

Do you disagree? If so, how do you disagree and how do you support your position?

Remember that downvotes discourage discussion, they shouldn't be used to note you disagree with someone's comment (see Reddiquette - "Please don't ... In regard to voting: Downvote an otherwise acceptable post because you don't personally like it.").