Russell Wilson was 2-of-15 with 2 INTs on passes of 10+ air yards on Thursday night

judiciousjones · 2022-10-07T19:50:31+00:00

Obviously no two situations are the same, but I'm sure QBs move teams without aggressively sucking eggs sometimes.

judiciousjones · 2022-10-07T18:31:17+00:00

Last year Stafford underwent a seemingly comparable transition and did not have these difficulties.

judiciousjones · 2022-10-05T21:20:20+00:00

Omelettes and eggs and whatnot.

judiciousjones · 2022-10-01T06:19:26+00:00

If you want to look at it more consistently the falling does occur at a fixed point in initiative. Perhaps it's just a reaction that is likely to be triggered in multiple contiguous rounds.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-30T00:25:05+00:00

There is evidence of collusion. The trade is evidence. There's no possible world where this is reasonable.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-27T15:36:24+00:00

It's more true of backs though.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-26T18:44:12+00:00

I need cowboys d to be under 1.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-25T14:02:22+00:00

Cooks, we know he'll get plenty targets. I'm suspicious that at some point the pendulum on London will switch and Pitts will get the good opportunities.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T22:49:36+00:00

Who lives from their investments from day 1? Trust funders? If you look at the 100 dollars as a 100 dollar dividend given monthly on a 200000 dollar investment in a long term stable asset class... It's not bad at all.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T22:28:18+00:00

You don't need good margins though. Any margin is gravy. Real Estate is a solid long term investment without any margin. It's like having someone else buy stocks in your name lol.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T22:08:28+00:00

Seems like your current receiving options would be relevant.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T21:51:10+00:00

I want to say, well done in the end. It can be difficult to stay diplomatic when. There's a clear ingroup outgroup forming.

I'll also add a dollop of unrequested advice. At my session 0s I make it clear that players can do ANYTHING with enough effort and resources. I also make it clear that characters who choose to pursue goals that aren't aligned to the campaign we agreed on at the outset will pursue those goals off screen. The camera follows the party, not every players. If Bobbert the great wants to become a baker that's wonderful. Jeff, you're going to need to roll a level 7 pc so we can continue. I'll work with you on the backstory and we'll figure out how they connect with the party because Bobbert is an npc now.

I make it clear from day one that the only rule is that your character has to want to be in this party doing the things the party is doing basically.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T19:44:43+00:00

With so many mouths to feed what makes you think McLaurin is a buy low?

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T16:27:57+00:00

"You'd have more by letting the land sit for selling later"

Idk what I did to misrepresent that. I admit you're not conveying your ideas with much clarity, so I can't say I have a firm grasp at what you're trying to say, but I'm not maliciously misinterpreting you either.

If your point is that buying undeveloped land, waiting, and then selling it to a developer later is the optimal way of investing in real estate, then I don't really object to that notion. I don't know enough to say if that's actually true, but given the absurd profit margins of people who held on to once worthless bay area land it wouldn't surprise me. I would guess that the average gains well outpace the median though. The appealing part of renting is often that you can start gaining cashflow immediately. Dropping your money into undeveloped land may be efficient on a long time scale, but it does nothing for your day to day in the interim unless it appreciates enough to borrow against (which is again dodgey). However, buying a house for 20k down, putting 20k into it (which raises it's appraisal 80k) refinancing to pull your original 40k investment out, and then letting a renter pay your mortgage off for you is basically the landlord dream. One year in and you have all your original capital back out, and you're getting an extra couple bucks a month from your tenant while ALSO gaining generational wealth via asset appreciation that can be passed on through trusts at low or no tax.

On the 100 year time scale buying the next chicago and waiting is probably better, but on the 18 month time scale well executed rental moves are better (imo)

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T15:38:14+00:00

Ok, technically you said rental properties are a scam for the landlord if we're really aiming for pedantry which hardly makes any sense. However, I have no interest in such nonsense so we'll take this as the start of real debate.

I am interpreting your argument (since you want to erroneously invoke fallacies) as follows

Premise 1: Real Estate is more profitable when left uninhabited.

Conclusion: Rental properties are a bad investment

I must be missing some implied premises, but since what little bit you've directly stated follows no known trends of economics or logic I'm struggling to even begin.

The only threats to a landlord's bottom line that I can think of stemming from occupancy are; 1. Property Damage 2. Legal Liability and associated fees for legal services in the case of a tricky eviction or some litigious tenant. 3. Opportunity Cost of a sale that fails due to occupancy status.

I have no meaningful way of measuring 3, and there's an (imo) comparable opportunity cost wherein some buyers would prefer to buy an occupied property I'm willing to call that a wash.

1: I can imagine no reasonable world where, in the long term, tenants do more damage than their rent covers monthly. A full reno probably should never cost more than 100x rent? So as long as you're not having to do the most cost inefficient version of a complete gut each and every 8.33 years you're good. In my observation that is a very reasonable assumption. I've never heard of a landlord having to sell because they can't afford repairs. I'm simply not convinced that's even a mild concern.

2: While messy evictions are to some degree unavoidable, the lost rent is a nonfactor when comparing to the strategy of leave unoccupied and most litigation can be pre-empted by good vetting and not doing illegal crap. I believe most eviction procedures require minimal if any lawyer interaction directly, much being done in small claims I believe. So again, just not seeing it.

As an aside, appreciation of the property is a big deal, but it happens at largely the same rate whether occupied or not, so I see no reason someone with a long term hold approach to real estate would benefit from leaving their property unrented/unleased. I'd be interested in hearing your numbers. Also, what on Earth do you mean "you're paying yourself if you end up being a landlord.". Is that a bad thing?

TLDR:. What are you even talking about.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T14:45:29+00:00

Well hang on, how can it be that rental properties are a bad investment and ALSO landlords are leeches who rob people of the joyous opportunity of having most of their wealth invested in real estate? They can't really be greedy leeches AND financially insolvent can they?

One of my things with landlording is the whole making money monthly while also having your equity increase.

"I'm barely making money here" Is really "I'm barely making short term profits while also stacking long term bands in equity and appreciation."

Tldr: Rental Properties are a great investment. It's practically free money lol.

Edit: Changed real estate to rental properties because it doesn't change the merit of anything I said and perhaps it will satiate the thirst for pedantry.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T14:29:57+00:00

It likely wanes somewhat linearly, and approximately 60 days is when it crosses the line to statistically insignificant. It's still there, but not readily discernable from statistical noise.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T14:28:32+00:00

I mean, a lot of times you just see if anything changed at all. Compare the mean median and mode of all the following data pre and post; reported speed for speeding stops, accident frequency, severity, maybe even data from google maps. I'm sure they have tons of metadata, not sure how available it is. Add to that, "did other ethnicities see parallel shifts in stops?" And you can get a decent picture.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T01:56:34+00:00

Does winter sowing just mean sowing in the winter? Or is it a proper term with more to it? Off to google I go.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-23T01:48:19+00:00

Perhaps something I should consider. I'm moreso looking at native perennials tbh, but getting things started indoors may be helpful nonetheless.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-22T23:08:53+00:00

I will say that I have tried the sheet mulch approach, and while it's great for weed suppression, it is tough to get seeds to germinate. I've found that even the ones that do tend to struggle, possibly from lack of nitrogen (gets bound up in the decomp process) or underwatering (I don't water anything).

Although I guess I may just be terrible at this.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-22T22:45:23+00:00

I'm trying to do this too, what was your process for converting lawn to this? Are these all plantings or seed grown?

judiciousjones · 2022-09-22T19:27:59+00:00

Another way to consider this trade is

Who will you drop?

Then, if the drop fodder is useless enough to not matter then it becomes a simple question of "is James Robinson better than your current tight end". It's entirely likely that kelce outscores cook, but there's no guarantees. If cook and kelce tie this year, then basically which is better, james Robinson or your tight end streaming efforts.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-22T18:08:33+00:00

Yea, pally 5 is just not the play. I mean slipping warlock 1 in after 5 is ok? But you want 6. 6 is huge. Scrolls are deffo no guarantee.

judiciousjones · 2022-09-22T05:20:13+00:00

Go look at the youtuber "Stuff Made Here". He did a video making a device that actually does what this video pretends to do and you can get an idea for how hard it is and how insufficient what you're seeing is.

judiciousjones

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