A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Week 17 Picks

Oh look, all of the games are on Sunday ... AS IT SHOULD BE!  Yes, I am an old school curmudgeon. 

With the exception of the sixth seed in both conferences, the playoff field is set.  Seeding is a different story.  Picking the week 17 games is so difficult because you have no idea which team will sit players and which won't.  Still I will do my best.

Bloody Monday (the day coaches and GMs generally get their walking papers) is on New Year's day this year, so it may be delayed a bit until Plasma Tuesday.  Still, the coaches I expect to take the long walk are Pagano, Fox, Lewis (which is already a given), and probably Mularkey.  Since Cleveland will go 0-16, I think Hue Jackson might be leaving.  But he has a done a significant amount of talent and pride building of a team desperate for something resembling consistency, so we'll see.  I'll have more to say next week.

Sunday:

Washington (7-8) at New York Giants (2-13) - Taterskins (10-18, GMen)

It's Cousins' last chance audition.  I think he's earned the job, but Washington is the most fucked up GM/Ownership situation in the NFL.

New York Jets (5-10) at New England (12-3) - Hatriots (6-26, Hatriots)

Krap (Kraft) will not allow his team to lose home field through the playoffs.  I can't be all that unhappy, because, at least in the AFC, a record of 13-3 tends to be a curse.

Chicago (5-10) at Minnesota (12-3) - Vikings (10-23, Vikings)

It doesn't matter if the Vikings rest their starters.  They are still better than the Bears and they are playing for the bye week.

Green Bay (7-8) at Detroit (8-7) - Lions (11-35, Lions)

Pride

Houston (4-11) at Indianapolis (3-12) - Colts (13-22, Colts)

Not much to work with here.

Cleveland (0-15) at Pittsburgh (12-3) - Steelers (24-28, Steelers)

Yes, Pittsburgh will rest starters and still beat the hapless Browns at home.

Dallas (8-7) at Philadelphia (13-2) - Cowboys (6-0, Cowboys)

The Eagles have everything as they want them.  They will not play anyone who risks a playoff run.

San Francisco (5-10) at Los Angeles Rams (11-4) - 49ers (34-13, 'Niners)

The Rams have already announced they are resting starters before the Wildcard weekend.

Oakland (6-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) - Chargers (10-30, Chargers)

The LA team is playing for a possible playoff birth.  They need a win and some help, which they might get.

Kansas City (9-6) at Denver (5-10) - Broncos (27-24, Chiefs)

The Chiefs have their seed and nothing to play for save safety.  I don't like the Broncos QB carousel drifting back to Lynch, but they should be able to beat the KC seconds.

Jacksonville (10-5) at Tennessee (8-7) - Jaguars (10-15, Titans)

The Jags may rest on offense, but that defense is still smarting from being spanked by the 'Niners.

New Orleans (11-4) at Tampa Bay (4-11) - Saints (24-31, Buccaneers)

The Saints are just a better team.

Buffalo (8-7) at Miami (6-9) - Dolphins (22-16, Bills)

My upset pick of the week, and Cutler is playing for a job.  The Bills run the ball, the Miami D is set to stuff the run.  I think the 'Fish take this.

Arizona (7-8) at Seattle (9-6) - Seahawks (26-24, Cardinals)

The Hacks are playing for a spot in the post season and ...

Carolina (11-4) at Atlanta (9-6) - Panthers (10-22, Falcons)

Julio Jones is dinged and the Panthers are hungry to take the top spot from the Saints.

Cincinnati (6-9) at Baltimore (9-6) - Ravens (31-27, Bengals)

It would be nice to see Marvin Lewis go out with a win.  But no.

Last Week's Score:  13 - 3,  81%   Overall:  161 - 79,  67%

 

Week 16 Picks

Have I mentioned that I really hate Saturday NFL football?  Good.  This is especially true because I picked a Thursday night game that wasn't ... until Saturday (which is today as of the writing of this post.)

 As if I needed yet another reason to hate the team from New England, the officials just gave them another win.  This one has terribly huge Playoff importance in that New England has the tie breaker for Home Field over the Steelers, and nobody beats the Hatriots in Foxborough in January.  I will never understand how that Jesse James touchdown got overturned.  First, he caught the ball cleanly, went to the ground untouched, and then spun to get the ball over the goal line.  That was a clear football move, which broke the plane.  Second his right hand was under the ball when his left slipped.  Still a catch, still a touchdown.  Pittsburgh was robbed and there is no other way to see it, other than bad officiating once again decided the outcome of an extremely important game.  As fans that isn't why we watch football.  The Hatriots legend grows due to sheer luck and bad sports, again, and this will be used as just more evidence of New England's 'greatness'.  Truly disgusting. 

Saturday:

Indianapolis (3-11) at Baltimore (8-6) - Ravens (16-23, Ravens)

Minnesota (11-3) at Green Bay (7-7) - Vikings (16-0, Vikings)

Sunday:

Detroit (8-6) at Cincinnati (5-9) - Lions (17-26, Bengals)

Detroit is desperately clinging to the hopes of a playoff birth.  Of those currently on the NFC outside looking in, they have the best chance.

Miami (6-8) at Kansas City (8-6) - Chiefs (13-29, Chiefs)

Buffalo (8-6) at New England (11-3) - Hatriots (16-37, Hatriots)

Cleveland (0-14) at Chicago (4-10) - Bears (3-20, Bears)

I really hope to be wrong on this one.

Tampa Bay (4-10) at Carolina (10-4) - Panthers (19-22, Panthers)

Cam is heating up on the late season.

Atlanta (9-5) at New Orleans (10-4) - Saints (13-23, Saints)

The saints and Panthers control their own destinies.  The Falcons are just looking in.

Denver (5-9) at Washington (6-8) - Taterskins (11-27, Taterskins)

The Broncos haven't played very well in the east this year.

Los Angeles Rams (10-4) at Tennessee (8-6) - Rams (27-23, Rams)

Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) at New York Jets (5-9) - Chargers (14-7, Chargers)

Jacksonville (10-4) at San Francisco (4-10) - Jaguars (33-44, 'Niners)

Garrapolo loses his first.

Seattle (8-6) at Dallas (8-6) - Cowboys (21-12, Seahawks)

The loser is assured of spending January on the couch.

New York Giants (2-12) at Arizona (6-8) - Cardinals (0-23, Cardinals)

I'm going with the odds, but I'm strangely uncomfortable with this pick.

Christmas:

Pittsburgh (11-3) at Houston (4-10) - Steelers (34-6, Steelers)

Oakland (6-8) at Philadelphia (12-2) - Eagles (10-19, Eagles)

The Eagles lock up the top seed.

Last Week's Picks:  13 - 3, 81%,   Overall:  148 - 76,  66%

Week 15 Picks Official

Still no time so Im'a make this quick.

My picks last week sucked, but the Dolphins beat the Hatriots, so I kinda like Jay Cutler again.

Thursday:

Denver (4-9) at Indianapolis (3-10) - Colts (25-13, Broncos)

Saturday:

Chicago (4-9) at Detroit (7-6) - Lions (10-20, Lions)

Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) at Kansas City (7-6) - Chargers (13-30, Chiefs)

Sunday:

Baltimore (7-6) at Cleveland (0-13) - Ravens (27-10, Ravens)

Arizona (6-7) at Washington (5-8) - Taterskins (15-20, Taterskins)

Philadelphia (11-2) at New York Giants (2-11) - Eagles (34-29, Eagles)

Miami (6-7) at Buffalo (7-6) - Bills (16-24, Bills)

Green Bay (7-6) at Carolina (9-4) - Panthers (24-31, Panthers)

Houston (4-9) at Jacksonville (9-4) - Jaguars (7-45, Jaguars)

Cincinnati (5-8) at Minnesota (10-3) - Vikings (7-34, Vikings)

New York Jets (5-8) at New Orleans (9-4) - Saints (19-31, Saints)

Los Angeles Rams (9-4) at Seattle (8-5) - Rams (42-7, Rams)

New England (10-3) at Pittsburgh (11-2) - Steelers (27-24, Hatriots)

Tennessee (8-5) at San Francisco (3-10) - 'Niners (23-25, 49ers)

Sunday Night:

Dallas (7-6) at Oakland (6-7) - Cowboys (20-17, Cowboys)

Monday Night:

Atlanta (8-5) at Tampa Bay (4-9) - Falcons (24-21, Falcons)

Last Week's Score:   8 - 8, 50%    Overall:  135 - 73,  65%

 

Saturday Picks

Working today, still no time.

Saturday:

 

Chicago (4-9) at Detroit (7-6) - Lions

Los Angeles Chargers (7-6) at Kansas City (7-6) - Chargers

 

Thursday Pick

Again with no time so here is Thursday's pick, not that this game has any real implications for anything other than Chuck Pagano's job ...

Thursday:

Denver (4-9) at Indianapolis (3-10) - Colts

Week 14 Picks

You know who cheered when Eli Manning got benched?  Eagle's fans, Taterskin Fans, Dallas fans, the few remaining Charger fans (who are still butthurt about "the trade" and really lament the loss of Drew Brees) and of course, Tom Brady.  You know who cheered when Ben McAdoo got fired?  EVERYBODY.  Including the Giants locker room.

Juju Smith Schuster laid a perfect, Perfect, open field block on one of the most notorious players in the NFL.  He lead shoulder first and decleeted Vontez Berfict.  Watch it as many times as you like, but unless you are a Patriots fanboi or the NFL Commissioner (I repeat myself) you will see that it was a legal block by a 216 pound Wide Receiver thrown against a 248 pound Linebacker in the open field.  Smith Schuster then stood over Berfict's pain defiantly.  I totally understand a 15 yard Taunting penalty from that.  Nut Juju received a one game suspension, apparently for being a big meanie.  Rob Gronkowski, a 265 pound Tight End, leaps in the air and throws his entire weight behind an elbow to the neck of a player lying face down out of bounds well after the whistle.  That defenseless man was Tre'Davious White, a 176 pound cornerback.  So let me get this straight.  As The Punk Crabtree proved so well last week, throwing a punch at a helmeted opponent in no danger is worth a one game suspension.  Throwing a legal block against a larger opponent is worth a one game suspension.  Violently driving your weight against a player 89 pounds lighter than you in a cheap shot chicken shit move that could result in a snapped neck, crushed skull, or extreme concussion is only worth a one game suspension.  This, this right here, is why I think the NFL is doomed.   There is no possible way to pretend that these suspensions are equal.  There is no possible way to pretend that Gronk didn't get off easy because of fantasy football implications and playoff hopes for Robert Kraft's team of grifters.  There is no possible way to pretend that it isn't obvious why everyone outside of Massachusetts hates the Hatriots.

The Broncos are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, as are the Colts.  This might be why people hate math.  The only teams that can clinch the playoffs are the Vikings and the Eagles.

Thursday:

New Orleans (9-3) at Atlanta (7-5) - Saints (17-20, Falcons)

Sunday:

Indianapolis (3-9) at Buffalo (6-6) - Bills (7-13, Bills)

Dallas (6-6) at New York Giants (2-10) - Cowboys (30-10, Cowboys)

Detroit (6-6) at Tampa Bay (4-8) - Buccaneers (24-21, Lions)

Oakland (6-6) at Kansas City (6-6) - Chiefs (15-26, Chiefs)

San Francisco (2-10) at Houston (4-8) - Texans (26-16, Niners)

Green Bay (6-6) at Cleveland (0-12) - Packers (27-21, Packers)

Chicago (3-9) at Cincinnati (5-7) - Bengals (33-7, Bears)

Minnesota (10-2) at Carolina (8-4) - Vikings (24-31, Panthers)

Washington (5-7) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) - Chargers (13-30, Chargers)

New York Jets (5-7) at Denver (3-9) - Jets (0-23, Broncos)

Tennessee (8-4) at Arizona (5-7) - Titans (7-12, Cardinals)

Seattle (8-4) at Jacksonville (8-4) - Jaguars (24-30, Jaguars)

Sunday Night:

Baltimore (7-5) at Pittsburgh (10-2) - Steelers (38-39, Steelers)

Monday Night:

New England (10-2) at Miami (5-7) - Hatriots (20-27, Dolphins)

Last Week's Score:  13 - 3, 81%  Overall:   127 - 65,  66%

Week 13 Picks Actual

First, a note on last weeks picks.  I totally whiffed on picking Jacksonville at Arizona so that counts as a loss.  I would have picked the Jaguars anyway, so there is that.

I wrote last week that the Broncos starting Paxton Lynch over Osweiler or Simian smelled of desperation.  That fear sweat odor was palpable after the first half when it looked like the Broncos were going to get blanked again, for the second time in a season.  I understand the thinking of the Puppet Master Elway.  Lynch is potentially the QB of the Broncos future, but they have to see him in game action to know.  What was seen was  ... not pretty.  Of course there is potential, but like Jared Goff of last year, that potential is crushed by a poor offensive line and a weak performance from what should be a stellar defense leaving the Broncos in a hole most of the game.  Bronco Nation is calling for Vance Joseph's head (and possibly Elway's as well), but desperation moves are what bury franchises for many years.  Look at the Browns.  I have little respect for any franchise which fires a coach after 1 year, unless his name is Tomsula.  That guy was in way over his head.

Which leads me to a coach whose seat gets toastier by the minute.  I do not understand the benching of Eli Manning for ... get this ... Geno Smith.  This reeks of a coach, afraid to make eye contact with ownership or fans, meekly offering a potential Hall of Famer as a sacrifice to keep his paycheck after a miserably coached and injury derailed season.  Yes, Manning is getting older and the Giants need to look to the future.  That future is NOT geno Smith.  Unlike Lynch who needs to be evaluated in game conditions, we all know Geno, a man so worthy as a leader that his jaw was broken by a teammate.  The Giants' season is effectively over, along with the Browns and the 'Niners, save for spoiling and looking to next year.  The Browns still have a boatload of draft picks, the 'Niners have a growing core of young players.  The Giants have, what now?  Oh yeah, great receivers on IR to be back next year, a quarterback who beat the unbeatable, and a defense capable of achieving much more than they've shown this season.  So the record shows not a flaw with players but with coaching and luck.  True, Eli can't hurl the ball down field like he used to, except when he throws 50 yard bombs to OBJ (currently on IR.)  Manning doesn't scramble like he used to, almost like he doesn't get any protection and has to waffle for his life.  I know that Eli is getting older, and this may be his swan song year.  But benching him for the hollow promise of a well derided second stringer just seems ... personal and mean.  It isn't Eli Manning that needs to go, it's Ben McAdoo.

The rumors are flying that the Puppet Master will swoop in and bring Eli to the Rocky Mountains.  I don't think it will happen.  Elway values size and physical gifts that Peyton had and Eli does not completely share.  They are both cerebral quarterbacks with an astounding will to win, but Eli's fade will be quicker than his brother's without particular offensive help, like a good O line.  Ultimately, the price tag will be too high for the Broncos.  Ultimately, though it might be just me, I feel that Eli Manning should remain and retire as a New York Football Giant.

Several years ago, Richard Sherman very publicly and vocally called Michael Crabtree a "punk".  People got on Sherman for that, but he was right.  Crabtree is a little punk.  Note for Micheal Crabtree.  Hey punk, in a fight between fist and helmet, helmet always wins.  Next time I hope you connect with that haymaker, punk.

Thursday:

Washington (5-7) at Dallas (6-6) - Cowboys (14-38, Cowboys)

I called that on the fly, and looky there.

Sunday:

Minnesota (9-2) at Atlanta (7-4) - Vikings (14-9, Vikings)

I hope they leave the roof open.

Houston (4-7) at Tennessee (7-4) - Titans (13-24, Titans)

Titans are fighting for playoffs.  The Texans are bit too banged up.

Kansas City (6-5) at New York Jets (4-7) - Jets (31-38, Jets)

I don't know what's happened to KC but it ain't good.

Denver (3-8) at Miami (4-7) - Broncos (9-35, Dolphins)

Simian was red-hot after getting benched.

Indianapolis (3-8) at Jacksonville (7-4) - Jaguars (10-30, Jaguars)

I am so impressed with Jacoby Brissett.  But Jacksonville had an off week in the desert and that defense is still legit.

Tampa Bay (4-7) at Green Bay (5-6) - Packers (20-26, Packers)

Battle of the bays ... in the North country.

Detroit (6-5) at Baltimore (6-5) - Ravens (20-44, Ravens)

Defense

New England (9-2) at Buffalo (6-5) - Hatriots (23-3, Hatriots)

Belichick always finds defense late in the season.

San Francisco (1-10) at Chicago (3-8) - Bears (15-14, 'Niners)

The 'Niners are p[laying with heart but they go to the midwest

Cleveland (0-11) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-6) - Chargers (10-19, Chargers)

Rivers is gunning for late season MVP.

New York Giants (2-9) at Oakland (5-6) - Raiders (17-24, Raiders)

Hand the Silver and Black an easy win over Geno.

Carolina (8-3) at New Orleans (8-3)- Saints (21-31, Saints)

Home field if nothing else.

Los Angeles Rams (8-3) at Arizona (5-6) - Rams (32-16, Rams)

LA could be the Philly spoiler in the playoffs.

Sunday Night:

Philadelphia (10-1) at Seattle (7-4) - Eagles (10-24, Seahawks)

If Seattle had an offensive line ... You simply will not beat the Eagles when your quarterback is responsible for 85% of your scoring.

Monday Night:

Pittsburgh (9-2) at Cincinnati (5-6) - Steelers (23-20, Steelers)

3/2 odds Berfict gets ejected.

Last Week's Score:   12 - 4,  75%  Overall:   114 - 62, 70%