A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Week 4 Picks

In my many long years of watching football, I've never seen a weekend as wacky as this.  It isn't just the upsets.  It's that talented players, talented teams, looked  ... bored, disinterested, apathetic.  Of all, the Steelers were the worst.  They allowed a weaker Bears team to tie the game, and in overtime allowed TWO walk in touchdowns.  The first was called back on penalty.  How do you allow a second?

So, I was informed that there were a lot of 'protests' this weekend.  I've left no damned mystery that I hate politics intruding on football.  Still, I have a protest of my own.  I watched Mike Shanahan, as coach of the Broncos, get his field goal team on the field and snap the ball in 9 seconds to win a game.  The Lions 'scored a touchdown' according to the refs on the field.  They stopped the clock, reviewed, and decided it wasn't a touchdown.  But by rule of the refs, a ten second runoff occurred, handing the goddamned game to the Falcons.  If the refs had called down by contact at the one-foot line, the Lions may have been abl;e to get to the line, snap the ball and either QB sneak a victory or cause a defensive penalty.  But no, the rules stated that the Lions lost at the will of the Officials.  Games should not be decided by official's mistakes.  That's bullshit, and I protest.

So, lets get on with Week 4.

Thursday:

Chicago (1-2) at Green Bay (2-1) - Packers (14-35, Packers)

Sunday:

New Orleans (1-2) at Miami (1-1) - Saints (20-0, Saints)

Tennessee (2-1) at Houston (1-2) - Titans (14-57, Texans)

Jacksonville (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2) - Jaguars (20-23, Jets)

Carolina (2-1) at Hatriots (2-1) - Hatriots (33-30, Panthers)

Detroit (2-1) at Minnesota (2-1) - Lions (14-7, Lions)

Buffalo (2-1) at Atlanta (3-0) - Falcons (23-17, Bills)

Pittsburgh (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1) - Steelers (26-9, Steelers)

Cincinnati (0-3) at Cleveland (0-3) - Bengals (31-7, Bengals)

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Dallas (2-1) - Cowboys (35-30, Rams)

Philadelphia (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) - Chargers (26-24, Eagles)

New York Giants (0-3) at Tampa Bay (1-1) - Giants (23-25, Buccaneers)

San Francisco (0-3) at Arizona (1-2) - Cardinals (15-18, Cardinals)

Oakland (2-1) at Denver (2-1) - Broncos (10-16, Broncos)

Sunday Night:

Indianapolis (1-2) at Seattle (1-2) - Seahawks (18-46, Seahawks)

Monday Night:

Washington (2-1) at Kansas City (3-0) - Chiefs (20-29, Chiefs)

Byes:  None.

Last Week's Score:  9 - 7,  56%    Overall:  34-13,  72%

Week 3 Picks

At the higher echelons, not much more can be gleaned from week 2 than week 1.  The Patriots could still win out, the Broncos could go 4-12 (they do play the Jets and Bills after all), and  the Cowboys could still win it all.  It's at the lower tiers that things are becoming clear.  The New York teams are in deep trouble.  The Jets are woefully lacking in NFL talent.  The Giants are one of two teams that are desperate for decent offensive line play. The other is the Seattle Seahawks.  Both have good to great defense, but it is fair to ask which terrific franchise QB will find himself crushed onto the IR first, Wilson or Eli Manning?  Jacksonville is one QB shy of looking decent.  The Panthers are 2-0, but only on the skill of Gano.  Cam Newton would be only only 50-50 to hit the Game of Thrones Wall from 30 yards.

With this all in mind, it is time to begin the Coaching Career Deathwatch.  CCD number ...

1)  Marvin Lewis.  A lot of folks, myself included, have wondered how Lewis has kept his job for so long without winning a playoff game.  This year is worse by far.  The Bengals just look awful.  They have an enormous amount of offensive talent, and are still dead last in scoring after 2 games.  The Jets have scored more points.  Dalton looks confused and ineffective.  Cincinnati has one of the best backups in the NFL, yet there is no indication that we will see A.J. McCarron.  Unless there is a significant turn around in Cincy, Lewis' days are numbered.

2)  John Fox.  Yes, Chicago almost came back against Atlanta in week 1.  That doesn't matter.  Few things chap the ass of the Chicago fan base worse than being behind Detroit.  In Fox's tenure, now in it's 3rd year, the Bears have been looking at Lion butt too long.  It was easy to blame Cutler before, but now it falls squarely on Coach Fox.   Cutler is looking good in Miami (and how I hate to write that.)  Chicago is not a contender and doesn't even look like it could be.

3)  Chuck Pagano.  The Colts are playing with a bit of spirit, but the fans are restless, and feeling lied to.  No one seems to know when the Wunderkind Luck will be back on the field.  Brissett looked okay, before handing the game away last week.  Chuck seems confused and concerned and not likely to be the Colts coach for much longer.

Others to watch:

Sean Payton, New Orleans

Todd Bowles, New York Jets

More to come.

 

On with the Picks:

Thursday:

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at San Francisco (0-2) - Rams (41-39, Rams)

 The 'Niners defense is playing well.  LA's is playing more aggressive.  And frankly, Goff hasn't looked that bad.

Sunday:

Baltimore (2-0) at Jacksonville (1-1) - Ravens (7-44, Jaguars)

Bortles is Bortles, and T-Sizzle (Terrell Suggs) is making a play for the Hall of Fame.

Cleveland (0-2) at Indianapolis (0-2) - Browns (28-31, Colts)

Very risky pick given Kizer's migraine problem.  Brissett is good, but win good with Indy has yet to be determined.

New York Giants (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1) - Eagles (24-27, Eagles)

The trenches, man, the trenches.

Miami (1-0) at New York Jets (0-2) - Dolphins (6-20, Jets)

Jets --- Bad.

Denver (2-0) at Buffalo (1-1) - Broncos (16-26, Bills)

Have I mentioned that defense is legit?  Flying across country is not ideal, but Trevor Simian seems far more capable than he is given credit for.

New Orleans (0-2) at Carolina (2-0) - Saints (34-13, Saints)

Probably my riskiest pick of the week.  But Cam is not the equal of Drew Brees.

Pittsburgh (2-0) at Chicago (0-2) - Steelers (17-23, Bears)

Not a doubt.

Atlanta (2-0) at Detroit (2-0) - Falcons (30-26, Falcons)

They looked just so last year, last week.

Tampa Bay (1-0) at Minnesota (1-1) - Buccaneers (17-34, Vikings)

This game is completely dependent on whether Bradford plays or not.

Houston (1-1) at New England (1-1) - Hatriots (33-36, Hatriots)

Whatever.

Seattle (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1) - Titans (27-33, Titans)

The Seahawks have no offensive line to speak of.

Cincinnati (0-2) at Green Bay (1-1) - Packers (24-27, Packers)

Do I really need to explain this?

Kansas City (2-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) - Chiefs (24-10, Chiefs)

The Chiefs are, right now, ranked as the best team in football.  The Chargers are ... not.

Sunday Night:

Oakland (2-0) at Washington (1-1) - Raiders (10-27, Taterskins)

Amari Cooper has been deemed questionable for this game.  It doesn't matter

Monday Night:

Dallas (1-1) at Arizona (1-1) - Cowboys (28-17, Cowboys)

Ezekial Elliot bounces back since he doesn't face the Broncos.

Byes:  None

Last Week's Score:  13 - 3,  81%   Overall:  25 - 6, 81%

 

 

Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was, predictably sloppy at times (the officiating comes to mind) and brilliant at others.  Some rookies are coming into the spotlight, like Galladay, while trusted veterans are shitting the bed (BRADY!).  Buffalo is atop the AFC East and the Los Angeles Rams rule the NFC West ... for a week.  That really is the point of the first week, to set your team's tone for the year and just shake off the rust.  There isn't a ton of analysis that will mean anything come November just yet.

Thursday:

Houston (0-1) at Cincinnati (0-1) - Texans 13-9, Texans)

The impotent against the futile.  The experts are picking Bengals but I'll go with the Houston D no matter how awful that offense looks.

Sunday:

Cleveland (0-1) at Baltimore (1-) - Ravens (10-24, Ravens)

The Browns are going to surprise some people this year, and this might actually be the week they do it.  But the Ravens are at home.

Chicago (0-1) at Tampa Bay (0-0) - Buccaneers (7-29, Buccaneers)

I predict we see Trubiski by the 3rd quarter.

Minnesota (1-0) at Pittsburgh (1-0) - Steelers (9-26, Steelers)

Last year, the Steelers were unstoppable at home.  I expect more of the same.

New England (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1) - Hatriots (36-20, Hatriots)

Whatever.

Philadelphia (1-0) at Kansas City (1-0) - Chiefs (20-27, Chiefs)

The two best looking teams of week 1 go head to head.  This is the game of the week.

Tennessee (0-1) at Jacksonville (1-0) - Titans (37-16, Titans)

We see the real Bortles against Dick Lebeau's defense.

Arizona (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1) - Cardinals (16-13, Cardinals)

The Arizona defense outscores Indy.  For the record, until Luck plays, I think Indy contends with the New York Jets as 'worst in the league'.

Buffalo (1-0) at Carolina (1-0) - Panthers (3-9, Panthers)

Though both won last week, neither looked very impressive.  Edge - Mccaffrey.

New York Jets (0-1) at Oakland (1-0) - Raiders (20-45, Raiders)

No explanation needed.

Miami (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) - Chargers (19-17, Dolphins)

The 'Bolts came close to coming back on Denver.

San Francisco (0-1) at Seattle (0-1) - Seahawks (9-12, Seahawks)

The 'Niners don't have the horses to exploit the 'Hawks tissue thin O-line.

Washington (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0) - Rams (27-20, Taterskins)

Goff played ... well?  And the Rams defense is legit.

Dallas (1-0) at Denver (1-0) - Broncos (17-42, Broncos)

Home field?  Elliot could and likely will cause problems for Denver.  The Dallas defense is playing without talent but with real purpose.  I should probably pick the Cowboys, but not this early in the season.

Sunday Night:

Green Bay (1-0) at Atlanta (1-0) - Packers (23-34, Falcons)

Rodgers shines under the lights.  And Atlanta was practicing their best 'choke' against the Bears last week.

Monday Night:

Detroit (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1) - Lions (24-10, Lions)

Much was made from Detroit coming back in the 4th quarter, again.  It shouldn't have been.  They simply kept the pressure on all game until Arizona folded completely.  The G-Men never even started against Dallas.

Byes:  None.

Last Week's Score:  12 - 3,  80%   Overall:  12 - 3,  80%

 

Week 1 Picks

So that happened.  I have been too busy to even consider making my picks until now, and I missed the first game to open the year.  Doesn't much matter though.  I would have picked the Patriots.  There is a niggling conspiratorial worm in my brain that thinks that Belichick threw the game to silence all talk of an undefeated season.  Still, Brady didn't look like Brady, and Alex Smith certainly didn't look like a man on the verge of replacement.  The Chiefs looked nothing like the team that held a slow slogging death march in January of 2016, the last time they were in Foxborough, and the last time these teams squared off.  Congratulations, KC.  You just made fans the country across.

3 Times the Patriots have lost their opener and gone on to win the SuperbOwl.  Week one is always something of a crapshoot.  So on with the Picks.

Thursday:

Kansas City at New England - Patriots (Chiefs, 42-27)

Sunday:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - Steelers (Steelers, 21-18)

Arizona at Detroit - Lions (Lions, 23-35)

Jacksonville at Houston - Texans (Jaguars, 29-7)

J.J. Watt has a 'come-back party'

Oakland at Tennessee - Raiders (Raiders, 26-16)

Risky pick.  The Titans have to prove their defense.

Philadelphia at Washington - Eagles (Eagles, 30-17)

I'm on the Wentz wagon.

Baltimore at Cincinnati - Ravens (Ravens, 20-0)

Can Flacco's back hold up?

Atlanta at Chicago - Falcons (Falcons, 23-17)

New York Jets at Buffalo - Bills (Bills, 12-21)

I will pick against the J-E-T-S until they show me otherwise.  This is an awful, woeful horrible team.

Indianapolis at L. A. Rams - Rams (Rams, 46-9)

I trust that D to start strong.  And no Luck for Indy.

Seattle at Green Bay - Packers (Packers, 9-17)

This is the game of the week, bar none.  No team loves an early challenge as much as the Packers, and no one is more able to give it than the Seahawks.

Carolina at San Francisco - Panthers (Panthers, 23-3)

If the Niners can beat the Panthers, I will consider them for the surprise team of the year.

Sunday Night:

New York Football Giants at Dallas - Giants (Cowboys, 3-19)

Dallas has Ezekiel Elliot for this game.  But New York seems to have their number, regardless.

Monday Night:

New Orleans at Minnesota - Vikings (Vikings, 19-29)

That northern defense is too good.  And I don't think Sam Bradford will disappoint.

L. A. Chargers at Denver - Broncos (Broncos, 21-24)

Denver doesn't tend to lose home openers.  And people still, STILL, underestimate that defense because the team doesn't have Peyton Manning under center.  Stupid.

Byes/Postponed - Miami - Tampa Bay.  Irma is a bitch, and I think we're going to find out how much over the next 48 hours.