While we keep hearing a lot about how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is supposed to be the anointed GOP candidate in 2024 if Donald Trump doesn't run, or is (ahem) otherwise occupied, like if he's throwing trays of prison food at the walls (don't get your hopes up), we aren't yet seeing much speculation about the Democratic ticket. That's mostly because it seems pretty likely Joe Biden will run for reelection. But if he chooses not to, polling has already pretty consistently shown Vice President Kamala Harris doing especially well against DeSantis. A recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll even shows her running about even with Trump, with both Harris and Trump getting 41 percent.
Yes, this is where we remind you that, four months before this year's midterms, it seems pretty daft to be talking about polling for the 2024 presidential race, and any numbers out there represent vague impressions, not an outline for what's coming. Heck, by the time the 2024 primaries are supposed to start, America may already be under martial law after Canadian peacekeepers march in to save us from ourselves.
Again, don't get your hopes up.
But for all his general We Don't Listen To Joe Scarborough Ever-ness, MSNBC Morning Zoo deejay Joe Scarborough made a pretty good point on the Twitters: Harris keeps beating DeSantis in early polling, so where's the big profile about her bright prospects?
DeSantis sneezes and he’s framed as the rising star of politics. And yet the Great White Hope STILL loses is every head-to-head matchup with Harris. The VP also draws even with Trump.
To be sure, Scarborough links to polling from May, but the more recent polling shows similar results: Yes, DeSantis wins a Trumpless field, but generally not with overwhelming support. And up against Harris, or against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who ran some dandy DeSantis-kicking ads in Florida — on Fox — DeSantis hardly looks like a juggernaut, a dreadnought, or even an Ugnaught for '24.
The Yahoo/YouGov poll
found Biden leading Trump 42% to 40% and DeSantis 41% to 37%. It found Harris tied with Trump 41% to 41%, but matched Biden's margin against DeSantis at 41% to 37%.
Newsom did just a touch better than Harris — or not better at all, considering margins of error — edging Trump 40 percent to 39 percent, and beating DeSantis 39 percent to 36 percent, although in a hypothetical Newsom-DeSantis matchup, the undecideds are a whopping 25 percent, leading many respondents to ask where they could get more information on this Undecided person, who really resonated with their concerns.
Here, have a little data visualization of that rundown, also too:
So while it may be a little early to be placing bets on the 2024 election, those are some encouraging numbers, isn't that nice? Also, it's probably not too early to be making plans to escape to a saner country in late 2024 or early 2025, just in case.
[Florida Politics / SFGate / Photo: Gage Skidmore, Creative Commons License 2.0]
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