SHOCK POLL: Americans Frickin' LOVE Voting Rights. Maybe Congress Should Pass Some.
The fuck you say?
Yesterday, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris gave big rousing speeches in Atlanta on the need to make voting rights happen, and Biden was more explicit than ever in his calls for the filibuster to be reformed to get it done. And the New York Times reports that it probably didn't have much effect back in DC.
But yeah, to be sure, this was some fiery shit, directed at Senate Republicans and their two BFFs, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema:
“Do you want to be on the side of Dr. King or George Wallace?” he declared, prompting some gasps from supporters in the audience. “Do you want to be on the side of John Lewis or Bull Connor? Do you want to be on the side of Abraham Lincoln or Jefferson Davis?”
Oh, the civility! To be clear, any senator who prevents meaningful voting rights legislation from passing is going to end up roommates in hell with George Wallace one day. Top bunk or bottom bunk, Joe Manchin?
What's wild is that, according to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll out today, summarized in this morning's Playbook, support for voting rights is actually really broad, including even among Republican voters.
First of all, have you been hearing all of a sudden about Electoral Count Act reform? It's this kind of arcane thing some Republicans and moderate Democrats suddenly are all glomming onto. In a vacuum, as a general concept, it's great, as it would make extra clear that the vice president isn't allowed to simply ignore the slates of electors states submit. Fifty-five percent of voters support ECA reform, and that includes 68 percent of Democrats.
But it ain't the whole enchilada. Obviously.
What the poll shows is that a lot of the parts of the Democrats' Freedom to Vote Act that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to force action on also have huge support. Playbook summarizes:
— Expanding access to early voting: 65% support, 23% oppose
— Prohibiting partisan gerrymandering: 64% support, 19% oppose
— Making it illegal to prevent someone from registering to vote: 62% support, 24% oppose
— Making Election Day a federal holiday: 61% support, 26% oppose
— Expanding same-day voter registration: 56% support, 30% oppose
— Expanding access to voting by mail: 55% support, 35% oppose
— Allowing Americans with prior criminal convictions to vote: 54% support, 32% oppose
— Expanding automatic voter registration: 51% support, 33% oppose
A lot of those things have major Republican support, clearly. They shouldn't be difficult for Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema to get their obstinate heads around.
But alas, there's the ancient and unchangeable tradition of the filibuster, which was designed by God in the year one million BC, in order to prevent Democrats from ever passing any legislation that might make a coal baron's asshole itch. No law should ever be allowed to pass, even if a nuclear bomb was riding a comet to earth and you were just trying to pass a bill to stop it, unless a magical number of 60 senators support it, right? Right? That's what Americans and God and Jesus think?
Not so much, according to this poll. Turns out 40 percent of Americans think bills should be able to pass with 51 votes, 41 percent think it should take 60, and 19 percent are like "Filibuster? But I just met her!" because they didn't understand the question. In other words, if Joe Biden murdered the filibuster in the middle of Fifth Avenue today, many Americans would be happy, but a bunch would just be like "HEENGGGGGH?"
The point is, as we have explained a number of times, that if Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema really think there is some giant majority out there in the American public that really cares about preserving things like the filibuster — which, factcheck, was not actually designed by God one million years ago, but rather came into its use in its current form pretty recently — then they are Dummy McWrongstupid idiots.
Americans also don't jerk themselves off into a lather about bipartisanship the way Manchin and Sinema think they do. We searched "bipartisanship" on PornHub (journalism!) and got no results. Not even weird amateur stuff.
Americans DO like getting things done, however. In fact, we'd imagine the general malaise that comes through in the rest of this poll, and the low approval ratings for Joe Biden and so forth, are directly related to a perception that not fuckin' shit is getting done. And you know what? We are a professional political writer and we find it hard to disagree.
Get. This. Shit. Done. There is no downside. Just fucking do it.
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Despite Joe Manchin’s Best Efforts, Democrats Building Polling Numbers Back Better
Promising polling start to a critical year.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll had some relatively good news for Democrats last week: They’re now slightly ahead of Republicans in the generic congressional ballot. Voters say they prefer unnamed Democratic candidates over Republicans who shall not be named 39 percent to 37 percent in this year’s midterm elections. Republicans had an eight-point advantage in the same poll in November, when very important pundits suggested Democrats not just panic over these numbers but “go into shock.”
However, running around like Dr. Smith from "Lost in Space" shouting “We’re doomed!” isn’t productive, and politics is obviously fluid. Although the odds are against Democrats, they haven’t lost until voters actually cast ballots, i.e. the part of the process Republicans don’t like very much. There’s a consensus among Democrats that Republicans shouldn’t win this year, but there’s some debate over the most effective messaging for a pandemic-weary electorate.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama declared, “We’ve got to vote like the future of our democracy depends on it.” The problem is that MAGAs are similarly motivated in a twisted way. Fortunately, Obama has more than just empty rhetoric. Her group, When We All Vote, plans to "recruit and train at least 100,000 volunteers" and "register more than a million new voters.”
Former first lady Michelle Obama has a message for Americans ahead of the 2022 midterm elections: "We've got to vote like the future of our democracy depends on it."https://cnn.it/3Fc2kLM— CNN (@CNN) 1641754811
We're going to need all of these new, left-leaning voters because we can’t trust once and future Republicans to come through for democracy. The non-democratic alternatives are just too tempting.
USA Today interviewed Mary Ann Chaffin, an 86-year-old retired small-business owner from Aurora, Colorado. She considers the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol "disgusting" and "very disheartening.” (We'd note that it was an insurrection, not the Mrs. Doubtfire musical.) She’s very concerned that democracy is in “peril” and she wishes “more brave Republicans,” other than the two, would stand up to Donald Trump and his Big Lie.
But she’s still not sold on Democrats and won’t commit to voting for them in the midterms. Her state sent Lauren Boebert to Congress, so she kind of owes us.
"It disturbs me what's happening to the Republican Party, and it disturbs me what's happening to the Democratic Party as we lean more and more towards socialism," Chaffin said.
This is, of course, false equivalency. The Republican Party has openly become an anti-democratic authoritarian cult of personality. Meanwhile, Democrats pass bipartisan infrastructure bills and believe we should address the climate crisis. The United States isn’t moving toward socialism. It’s becoming more of a corporate-owned plutocracy.
Chaffin "thanks God” for Senator Joe Manchin, because he's blocked Build Back Better. Maybe she is against the tyranny of the child tax credit.
That’s the conundrum for Democrats. Self-described independents like Chaffin claim they give a damn about democracy, but then they all too often won't do anything about it at the ballot box. Moderate Democrats worry that advancing an ambitious social spending agenda will alienate these “pro-democracy” voters, but Democrats can give them everything they want (e.g. the bipartisan infrastructure bill) and many of them will still cast ballots for frauds like Glenn Youngkin.
According to Matt Grossman, who heads the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, it’s doubtful that appeals to “democracy" will move the needle much.
"There's not much evidence that making democracy itself the issue is effective for winning votes when other issues are more important to voters," said [Grossman].
Overall, (Democrats) understand that this is not a top-tier concern for most swing voters," he said, predicting "it is generally not going to be the message to run in ads."
Voters' biggest concern is the economy, and it’s why Republicans are blaming President Joe Biden for inflation, supply chain issues, and the pandemic they’ve personally helped prolong. “Elections" didn’t crack one percent. Joe Manchin's and Kyrsten Sinema’s internal sabotage has prevented Democrats from delivering big for Americans. Voters like Ms. Chaffin might think reducing child poverty, expanding Medicare, and offering universal pre-K is all just “socialism” but all too often, voters like that were never voting for Democrats anyway.
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Oregon Gov. Kate Brown Is Nation's Least Popular Governor, So That Seems Unfair
She’s actually not that bad. We swear.
Morning Consult ran a story last week ranking the nation's governors by approval rating, and Democratic Oregon Governor Kate Brown brought up the rear with just 43 percent approval. Vermont GOP Governor Phil Scott commands the top spot with 79 percent.
Why exactly is Brown America's least popular governor? I live in Oregon and have apparently survived Brown's apparent reign of terror unscathed. (Full disclosure: I met the governor at a private function recently, and she was charming.) She's not scandal-ridden like South Dakota GOP Governor Kristi Noem, whose entire COVID-19 policy appears to be to let God sort 'em out. Noem ranks 14th with 58 percent approval. Yes, that Kristi Noem.
Oregon's economy has also reasonably weathered the pandemic. According to state economist Josh Lehner:
The economic recovery from the pandemic continues to be robust. Booming wage gains are now offsetting the fading federal aid. Household incomes and consumer spending remain strong, supporting an overall bright outlook. The economy is set to reach full employment a year from now, or three times faster than in the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Governors usually ride the wave of positive economic trends, but Brown is still less popular than that Cats musical. Despite her solid efforts keeping Oregonians alive during the pandemic, Brown faced considerable backlash last year for the ongoing unrest in downtown Portland. Folks also weren't thrilled with all the homeless people sleeping in tents near the food trucks.
Local pollster John Horvick with DHM research said Brown's "numbers are as negative as Trump's were during his administration." That's a slightly unfair comparison considering Trump is an unhinged authoritarian who incited an attack against a co-equal branch of government. Brown's major failing is not making homeless people go away forever.
"Voters are mad about homelessness and really upset about crime," Horvick says. "There is disorder and decay out there, and I think voters are feeling somebody should be held accountable."
Joe Scarborough also claimed that Brown was presiding over Portland's “disorder and decay." It's really not that bad here. The pandemic hit downtown hard, and I predicted a corresponding increase in crime rates even before the unrest. Portland has exceeded the national trend in rising homicides, but it's still not The Purge. (Although conservatives and those ever-fickle moderates want to claim that any efforts at holding the police accountable are directly responsible for the increase.)
Brown has taken more of a hit than Washington Governor Jay Inslee, and Trump's Department of so-called Justice also declared Seattle an “anarchist zone." Seattle also has a considerable homeless problem, which apparently annoys residents because it's more “visible." Yet Inslee still enjoys 55 percent approval.
Horvick declared in March that Brown "has never been particularly popular." What's worse is that Oregonians support most of her policies, especially related to COVID-19 and her push to get students back in school, but that doesn't show up in her approval ratings. Voters give her little to no credit for everything she does that they like, but directly blame her for everything that goes wrong. In short, she's a classic Democrat.
Brown's spokesman, Charles Boyle, says the governor is focused on serving her constituents rather than worrying about polls.
"Gov. Brown's top concerns are the health and well-being of Oregon families, keeping students learning in classrooms, and a strong and equitable economic recovery––not her political favorability," Boyle says.
Brown is term-limited out of what would've likely proven a difficult election next year. The upside for Democrats is that it seems as if voters resent Brown herself and not her policies, so there's no need to shift right or anything too desperate. However, moderate Democratic state Senator Betsy Johnson is running for governor as an independent. Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek, state Treasurer Tobias Read, and former New York Times reporter Nicholas Kristof are also running for the Democratic primary nomination. I presume no one informed Kristof that there were other, actual qualified candidates.
Meanwhile, back in Vermont, Phil Scott's popularity is more than a little concerning because Democratic incumbent Patrick Leahy is retiring next year. Scott so far insists he won't run for the open seat, but why would anyone trust a Republican?
It's probably no consolation to Governor Brown, but I still think she's swell.
[Willamette Week / Oregon Office of Economic Analysis]
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Trump Threatens To Tank GOP In Midterms If Party Fails To Pucker Up And Kiss His Ass
You make a deal with the devil, he's gonna come collecting.
Donald Trump, the parasite devouring the Republican party from within, has a warning about the 2022 midterms.
"If we don't solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 (which we have thoroughly and conclusively documented), Republicans will not be voting in '22 or '24," he whined last week on his mommyblog. "It is the single most important thing for Republicans to do."
And Mitch McConnell popped another antacid. Because for Ol' Yertle, the most important thing is not relitigating 2020 for all eternity. He wants to win back both houses of Congress, and he can't do it if the Madman of Mar-a-Lago keeps telling the base to boycott the polls.
Yesterday the New York Times reported on an internal GOP survey of voters in Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's Georgia House district, which The Cook Political Report rates as R+28.
The internal survey found that 5 percent of Republican voters said they would sit out the 2022 election if the state of Georgia did not conduct a forensic audit of the 2020 election — a demand that some of Mr. Trump's hard-core supporters have made. Another 4 percent said they would consider sitting out the election absent an audit.
The possibility that nearly 10 percent of Republicans could sit out any election — even one in a solidly red district like the one held by Ms. Taylor Greene — was something Republican strategists said they found alarming.
Which jibes with the results of January's Senate runoffs when Republicans got pissed off and stayed home, handing the Senate to Joe Manchin. Which sucks mightily, but is certainly better than the alternative. (Shut up, yes it is. We're getting two more excellent judges confirmed this afternoon.)
And in case Trump was too subtle, Steve Bannon is making it perfectly clear.
"President Trump is saying: 'Hey, I'm putting you guys on notice. My people aren't coming out,'" he told the Times. "There could not be a bigger shot across the establishment bow."
As Robyn said last week, don't threaten us with a good time!
And that idiot's still at it. On Friday, Trump blasted out a "statistical analysis" "proving" he'd won Arizona, where Democrats are hoping to flip the secretary of state and governor's seats, as well as give Sen. Mark Kelly a full term in 2022. It was the same warmed-over bullshit about the impossibility of mail-in ballots going so heavily for Biden, salted with some nonsense about fraudulent ballots that are theoretically rampant and undetectable.
The precincts above 92% mail-in return rate represented 264,000 votes. If just 2% are fraudulent, meaning Trump votes went to Biden, that would be enough to change the so-called margin in Arizona of 10,457 votes.
It's pure fantasy, but if Trump is going to keep howling about the futility of voting in Arizona, it's unlikely to boost Republican turnout.
More immediately, Trump's antics threaten Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, who has tried to run as far away from the former president as possible without pissing off the base. A big wet kiss of a shoutout from the big man himself on Wednesday served only to gift Terry McAuliffe several news cycles of Glenn "Trumpkin" coverage.
As former GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock, who got routed from her northern Virginia seat in 2018, told the Times, "[Trump] doesn't want other people to win without groveling to him. That's the threat ... It's not about winning. It's all about him. And that's what's so stupid about Republicans even trying to deal with him, because you never know when he'll drive the car off the cliff."
Over at the Post, Philip Bump has a contrarian take. In his telling, Trump knows his base isn't going to show up next year, and he's trying to preemptively take credit for it as proof that the party is now a one-man band.
A natural conclusion, then, is that we're getting Trump's threat backward. Perhaps it's not that Trump is threatening to withhold the enthusiasm of his base unless the party does the impossible thing he demands. Instead, he's using the failure to do the impossible thing as the rationalization for why he won't be able to turn out his base.
Which seems a little 2017, TBQH. You know, back when people said with a straight face, "You just don't get it, man, Trump is playing 27-dimensional chess!" It was bullshit then, and it's bullshit now. He's a delusional iconoclast, and the question isn't when he'll drive the car off the cliff. The only question is whether he'll do it to all of America, the way did in 2016, or just to the GOP, like he did in 2018.
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