Kai Kupferschmidt’s Tweets

Nov 26

This pandemic has been all about communicating uncertainty and it doesn’t get more uncertain than early data on new variants. So a few things to keep in mind the next few days and weeks as the picture around B.1.1.529 becomes clearer and why it’s right to be concerned

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(Also worth remembering that Germany is in a worse position than countries like Norway, Denmark or UK in terms of immunity given comparatively low vaccination rate and low levels of immunity from infections. Boostering quite fast though.)

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(My two cents: Seems in line with the conclusions that countries sightly ahead of us in the omicron wave are reaching. There is a lot of uncertainty, but by the time we’re certain it will be too late. Good to see communication feature prominently in the opinion. Huge challenge!)

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The committee of 19 experts includes scientists like

and

. They unanimously agreed to this text. The entire document in German: bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/

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"The omicron wave hits a population that has been exhausted by a nearly two-year pandemic and its control, and in which massive tensions are evident on a daily basis.” Communication "with clear explanations of the new risk situation and the resulting measures is essential."

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The experts “expect enormous challenges in the coming weeks and months, which will require joint and timely action from all. In addition to consistent action, clear explanations are crucial."

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"Particularly vulnerable groups require increased protective measures through high-frequency testing and FFP2 masks. In all decisions, interests of particularly stressed and vulnerable groups, such as children, young people or those in need of care, must be given top priority."

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Beyond political decisions, "the population must be called upon to actively control infections. This includes avoiding larger gatherings, the consistent, preferred wearing of FFP2 masks, especially indoors, as well as the increased use of rapid tests at gatherings…"

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They call for: - further measures to reduce contacts - enforcing current measures - intensifying vaccination and booster campaigns "all models show that booster vaccinations alone do not adequately contain the omicron wave, but that additional contact restrictions are necessary"

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Germany’s new expert council weighs in on #omicron: "Due to the simultaneous, extreme number of patients, a considerable overload of the hospitals is to be expected - even in the unlikely case of significantly weakened disease severity compared to the Delta variant"

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Still more questions than answers on #omicron as this thread on SAfrica’s wave nicely demonstrates: “It really *does seem* as if South Africa, my country, will escape relatively unscathed in this wave” but what if “we 'bought' that present at horrendous cost during past waves”

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Tom Moultrie

@tomtom_m

· 6h

A series of mini-thoughts for a Sunday afternoon. South Africa vs. Rest of the World - the Omicron Edition. 1) We are pretty confident that Gauteng, the province at the South African Omicron epicentre is past its peak in terms of proportion of tests returning positive.

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John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

For no particular reason ... A Sunday thread highlighting just a tiny sample of the brilliant women whose tireless work has shaped my understanding of Covid-19

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With Omicron spreading ‘at lightning speed’ in Europe, the Netherlands locks down.

Martin Enserink

@martinenserink

22h

Welp, here we go again... The Netherlands enters a hard lockdown at 5 AM on Sunday.

nytimes.com

“We have to act now to prevent a worst-case scenario,” said Prime Minister Mark Rutte. “Without measures, we could be witnessing an uncontrollable situation at the start of January.”

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The South Africa Omicron Wave Is Already Peaking. Why?

20h

“This is going to be less severe, either because of immunity or intrinsic severity or both. What matters much more than what drives that reduced severity is how reduced it is.” This is a fantastic interview of

@trvrb

@dwallacewells

nymag.com

Virologist Trevor Bedford helps make sense of what is happening with the new variant in South Africa, and what it might mean for other countries.

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Tulio de Oliveira

@Tuliodna

Dec 17

I would like to ask one to be careful on not interpretation of Gauteng data from middle December. The reason is that Gauteng get quite empty and 100,000s of migrant workers and holiday makers leave. Tip, get a look at Beta wave at similar time last year in Gauteng

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Dec 18

This in particular is worth remembering: Decisions need to be made now based on imperfect data

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Ewan Birney

@ewanbirney

· Dec 18

Infection is one thing, but what decision makers want to know about is hospitalisations; again, the time from sense to decide to respond to change infection patterns is probably too short to be sure; one has to make decisions on far lighter data than one would wish.

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This is a good thread on #omicron from UK vantage right now “I can't see western Europe getting through this without some level of lockdowns, perhaps circuit breaker ones to ease off healthcare pressure, let booster campaigns complete, leaving some NPIs to see out Omicron wave”

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Ewan Birney

@ewanbirney

· Dec 18

Omicron thoughts from dark, Christmas London. TL;DR - Europe+World is facing the Omicron storm and it looks increasingly bad; and, obviously, the virus doesn't care about Christmas. Despite some serious response in the UK, this virus is replicating fast; more action likely needed

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Ridhwaan Suliman

@rid1tweets

Dec 18

Turned! 🙏🏽 Confirmed #COVID19 cases in Gauteng 🇿🇦 now on a decline, having peaked at case incidence of ~67 new cases per 100k, ~90% of delta wave peak, and currently showing a halving time of ~11 days 📉 #Omicron #OmicronVariant #Gauteng #Covid_19

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Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim im Gespräch | Pandemia - Die Welt. Die Viren. Und wir.

Dec 18

Ihr könnt das Ganze auch hier hören:

viertausendhertz.de

Im Gespräch mit dem Pandemia-Team erzählt die Wissenschaftsjournalistin Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim wie sie die vergangenen zwei Jahre erlebt hat, warum sie das Wort “Covidioten” ablehnt und was ihr gerade...