As Chirag Paswan meets Lalu, Tejashwi, is Bihar set for political realignment?

Paswan has been looking for political space in Bihar since his uncle, Pashupati Paras, with four other Lok Sabha members, effectively split the party, following which Paras was given a Union Cabinet berth at the Centre.

The political context

Paswan has not announced his exit from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even though he has been extremely critical of Bihar chief minister (CM) and Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) leader, Nitish Kumar — also part of the NDA.

Paswan had split from the NDA in Bihar and contested against JD(U) in the assembly polls. The CM held Paswan responsible for the party’s drop in seats, and is understood to have encouraged the split in LJP. Chirag Paswan now has his father’s legacy, but is bereft of a party organisation.

Since then, the RJD has been open to extending an invitation to Chirag, but has placed the ball in his court. Amid the faction war within the LJP, RJD chief Lalu Prasad even described Chirag Paswan as the leader of the masses, and praised Ram Vilas Paswan, with whom he shared a relationship of political rivalry in recent times, as the true leader of Dalits.

Chirag Paswan met Tejashwi Yadav to invite him for his father’s first death anniversary function. He also met Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) leader, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and is likely to invite others, including Nitish Kumar. “I have got my name written for an appointment so that I could extend my invitation to him. I am waiting,” he said to a query from media persons.

Though Paswan said that “no political meaning” should be attached to his meeting Yadav in politics, it was hard to miss the political subtext. With by-elections for two assembly seats in Bihar in the next few months, his next move will be keenly watched.

BJP spokesperson Nikhil Anand dismissed the meeting between the two leaders as a non-event, and even criticised Paswan for installing the statue of late Ram Vilas Paswan at the official residence allotted to the former Union minister in New Delhi without following the due procedures. “Both Tejashwi Prasad Yadav and Chirag were up to the same game. While Yadav is trusting to get rid of his elder brother, Paswan is after his uncle. Both are discontented and the meeting of the two does not carry any meaning,” he added.

The politics of the by-polls

But what is significant about the two seats, up for by-polls, is that both were held by the JD(U) and intra-LJP dynamics can make a difference.

In Kusheshwar Asthan, The late Shashibhushan Hazari defeated his Congress rival Ashok Kumar by a margin of 7,222 votes, while LJP‘s Poonam Devi finished third, with 13,362 votes. In Tarapur, The late ML Choudhary of the JD(U) won by a margin of 7,225 votes against RJD’s Divya Prakash, while LJP’s Mina Devi polled 11,264 votes. The death of the two leaders, Hazari and Choudhary, necessitated the by-polls.

Paswan’s support could help the RJD — in both seats, the LJP got more votes than the margin of defeat of the RJD — but on its own, Paswan does not have the strength to sway the outcome. For the JD(U), which was relegated to the third position in the 2020 polls, the stakes are the highest, as it would not like to lose its sitting seats. The CM’s visit to flood-hit Kusheshwar Asthan by boat earlier this month indicated the importance of the seats.

The RJD’s embrace of Paswan, and his possible entry into the opposition alliance, can shape electoral outcomes. The difference in vote share between the RJD-led grand alliance and the NDA was only 0.03%. The LJP, on its own, got 4% of the total votes polled. The NDA came to power with 125 seats and the grand alliance got 110 seats in the closely contested polls.

A leader close to Paswan, who did not wish to be identified, said that at this stage, the young leader was in no hurry and would open his cards when the situation demanded it. “In by-polls, there may be an understanding between different parties, which is normal. The LJP has traditionally contested both the Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur seats, but the party under Chirag Paswan is working with a long-term vision of ‘Bihar first, Bihari first’. He has been moving around the state,” the LJP leader said.

The internal discord within LJP

While Chirag Paswan adopts a wait-and-watch approach, political experts feel that the party’s posturing in the upcoming by-poll for the two seats, which could also bring the two factions of the LJP face-to-face, could be a sign of things to come.

It will also be a test of whether Chirag Paswan does carry the legacy of his father and can independently swing the Dalit, specifically the Paswan, vote — or whether his uncle, with the party symbol, has inherited the legacy.

“It is quite clear that with Pashupati Kumar Paras group with the JD-U, Chirag Paswan may end up throwing his weight behind the RJD, despite not formally joining hands at this stage. He has the legacy of his father with him, and time on his side. But while Paswan has been consistently critical of the JD(U), but he has not been critical in the case of the BJP so far,” said analyst DM Diwakar.