Monthly Archives: March 2014

No Way Out: The Military Has Wrecked Egypt

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 29, 2014

General—excuse me, Field Marshal—Abdul Fattah as-Sisi, dark glasses and all, the vital accessory of an Arab tyrant

General—excuse me, Field Marshal—Abdel Fattah as-Sisi, dark glasses and all, the vital accessory of an Arab tyrant

This week brought the news that 528 members and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood would be executed by the “interim government” in Egypt, and Abdel Fattah as-Sisi finally said publicly what everyone has long known: he will run for the presidency in July. Continue reading

The Sahel Front

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 28, 2014

A map of the Five Fronts command, an early effort at rebel unification that split the country into five strategic zones. The Sahel or Coast Front is also called the Central Front

A map of the Five Fronts command, an early effort at rebel unification that split the country into five strategic zones. The Sahel or Coast Front is also called the Central Front

On March 21, a major offensive began by anti-regime forces in the north of Latakia, an area where the regime has long been unable to re-fasten its rule. Continue reading

Iran Is Supporting al-Qaeda In Syria

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 24, 2014

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Given the increasing power of the Iranian theocracy in Syria on the Assad regime’s side, and the evidence of an overlap between the Assad regime and the Sunni jihadists who have descended on Syria, it is important to assess Tehran’s relationship with Salafi-jihadism.

Continue reading

The Assad Regime’s Collusion With ISIS and al-Qaeda: Assessing The Evidence

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 24, 2014

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There has long been speculation in Syrian oppositionist circles that the regime was colluding with the Qaeda-type forces in the insurgency, to shore-up its own base by frightening the minorities and to ward off external help to the rebellion from the West. Continue reading

Can Hillary Run Against Obama’s Foreign Policy?

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 22, 2014

U.S. Secretary of State Clinton listens to U.S. President Obama speak during a meeting with members of his cabinet in Washington

A recent article in the National Journal suggested that Hillary Clinton is beginning to position herself for the 2016 Presidential run. Headlined, ‘Hillary Clinton Steps Away From Obama on Foreign Policy,’ the main point was made. Continue reading

Algeria’s ‘Years of Blood’: Not Quite What They Seem

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 21, 2014

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Antar Zouabri, who became leader of the GIA in the summer of 1996

In December 1991, the Algerian government—the military regime in power since the French were expelled—gave in to public pressure, which had already turned sanguinary, and allowed an election. It was quite clear that the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), a fundamentalist party, would emerge victorious. To forestall the institution of a theocracy, in January 1992, the military launched a coup and shut down the final rounds of the election. A civil war erupted in which the jihadists sought to overpower the secular, if dictatorial, government. By the late 1990s, the jihadists’ savagery had meant their campaign had run aground; the vital centre in Algeria swallowed its misgivings and sought shelter behind the State. By 2002, the civil war was declared over: the jihadist revolt had been beaten.

That is the official story.

Continue reading

Al-Qaeda Disowns ISIS

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 21, 2014

On February 3, 2014, Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad (The Base of Holy War Organisation)—al-Qaeda—disowned ad-Dawla al-Islamiya fil-Iraq wa-Sham (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS), finally resolving the tortured question of the group’s “affiliation” with the terror network. Continue reading

Ayman al-Zawahiri Expels ISIS From Al-Qaeda

By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on March 21, 2014

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The announcement of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in April 2013 saw the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) claim to subsume its Syrian branch, Jabhat al-Nusra, a move rejected by al-Nusra’s leader who then swore allegiance to al-Qaeda. Both ISI and al-Nusra were believed to be branches of al-Qaeda at the time, and al-Qaeda’s emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, ruled that ISI should return to Iraq and al-Nusra should remain as al-Qaeda’s separate branch in Syria. ISI, keeping the ISIS name, dismissed this decision—and ISI(S)’s spokesman did so even more forcibly. After a year of turmoil,  al-Zawahiri released a statement on February 3, 2014, disowning ISIS. Al-Zawahiri’s speech was translated by @IraqiWitness and is reproduced below. Continue reading