Daily briefing

Today’s release of America’s consumer-price index for March will probably mark the start of a temporary surge in inflation. Economists expect year-over-year growth in prices to rise from 1.7% to 2.5% as prices subdued by the pandemic a year ago enter the comparison. The Federal Reserve expects higher inflation—on its preferred measure, which differs from CPI—to persist for a few months, then subside. In any case, monetary policymakers want inflation to overshoot their 2% target. It is part of their new “average inflation targeting” regime, which calls for the Fed to make up for past shortfalls. But it is not entirely clear how far they want to overshoot. The sag in inflation during the pandemic was concentrated in the spring of 2020, but the regime only started in the autumn. As it gets closer to tightening monetary policy, the Fed will have to be more specific about what its target is.

First, a mysterious explosion. Then a power failure. Now the Natanz nuclear facility will probably be out of action for months. It is apt that Sunday’s events seem like a spy novel. They were probably part of an Israeli operation against Iran’s nuclear programme. Last week, Israel attacked an Iranian spy-ship in the Red Sea. Such actions are not new, but their increased tempo and the willingness of senior Israeli sources to give anonymous media briefings about them reveals Binyamin Netanyahu’s anxieties. Israel’s prime minister has been unnerved by Joe Biden’s efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal—indirect talks between the White House and Iran could begin this week—and by growing pressure at home. His trial for bribery and fraud is resuming and, after disappointing election results three weeks ago, he has been unable to cobble together a governing coalition. Perhaps he hopes increased tension with Iran will convince recalcitrant political allies to join a new government under him.

The race to succeed Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor has suddenly heated up. Mrs Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union and its sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union, must choose a joint candidate to lead them into September’s general election. The leaders of both parties want the job, and yesterday each won the backing of their respective parties’ executive committees. Armin Laschet, the CDU’s chair, has the stronger claim as leader of the larger party. But Markus Söder, his CSU counterpart, is a better communicator and far outshines his rival in national polls. Despite promising to seek the job only if the CDU asked, Mr Söder is refusing to stand down, instead urging a broader discussion between the parties, including its MPs, who are meeting this afternoon. The CDU/CSU has lately tumbled in opinion polls as Germany has struggled with a third wave of covid-19. Now may not be the best time for a family row.

Grab, a South-East Asian ride-hailing group, said today that it will publicly list via the largest-ever merger with a blank-cheque company. The deal values the Singapore-based group, which offers a range of services from ride-hailing to food delivery and financial services, at around $40bn. The merger with Altimeter Capital’s special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, will raise up to $4.5bn for Grab. T. Rowe Price, an investment firm, and BlackRock, an asset manager, will take part in the fundraising along with several other investors. Grab is backed by investments from SoftBank, a Japanese giant, and has expanded across a number of markets in the region since it was founded in 2012. The deal makes it among the most-valuable tech unicorns in South-East Asia, where a handful of groups are competing to take market share across a range of digital services.

A clinical trial in Britain found that budesonide, a steroid widely used for asthma, can speed recovery from covid-19 and may lower hospital admission rates. The trial looked at 1,800 people 65 or over (and people 50 or over with underlying health problems) who were being treated at home. Of these, 751 were prescribed a palm-sized inhaler with budesonide. The study found that 32% of those in the budesonide group recovered within 14 days, compared with 22% of the rest. On average, the drug reduced recovery time by three days. After 28 days, preliminary data show that 8.5% of those using budesonide were admitted to hospital, compared with 10.3% of the control group (though the difference is not statistically significant). It is not only effective but cheap. The steroid is widely available globally, and an inhaler costs Britain’s National Health Service just £14 ($19). Those nursing covid-19 at home can breathe a little easier.