Bigger than brown envelopes… March 25, 2021
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This from Joe Mooney on Facebook on the news that the Appeals board has rejected Dublin City Council’s proposals to limit docklands height increases…
This decision by An Bord Pleanala spells disaster not just for Dockland residents but sets a precedent which will impact communities across the city and country .
Essentially what this achieves is allowing the ego & greed driven agenda of one notorious property developer to over-rule the strategic planning framework of Dublin City Council .He is now essentially a law unto himself and has a green light to ride roughshod over communities , planners and local authorities . And proper planning be damned ! This of course will benefit others in the profit before people business.
When people see questionable planning decisions the phrase ‘brown envelope’ is thrown around and corruption is hinted at . That is no longer the case – the era of the brown envelope is over . It is no longer necessary . I have said this on numerous occasions – what Fianna Fáil once allowed happen with their brown envelope culture Fine Gael have now allowed happen with legislation .
Flooding the zone March 25, 2021
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Anyone look at recent comments on the IT in the wake of the Astra Zeneca/UK government/EU debacle? Thought it intriguing that the number of pro-Brexit commenters suddenly shot up, these being new ones who were making much of the EU’s travails. It wasn’t simply a case of the affair suddenly ‘proving the worth of Brexit’ as some seemed to put it, so much as trying to make the case the EU had no cause for complaint. In other words the argument went along the lines ‘the EU was inept’ in its ordering but in any case it had no right to be irritated with either AZ or to a lesser degree the UK government. But reading these comments the thought struck me that it was quite possible for one to argue that the EU was indeed inept, and/or naive, in respect of the contract it signed with AZ, and simultaneously it could indeed be irritated and more with both AZ and the UK government.
But a broader question was whether these were autonomous commenters or part of a conscious effort on the part of the British state to change the narrative. I saw something similar on the Guardian in comments where there was disbelief expressed at the idea that the EU had actually signed contracts with AZ a day before the UK did. The EU was unwise in the extreme (again the term inept comes to mind) in relation to that contract, simply not building in the level of protections that were necessary. Though one could argue that it was the height of sharp practice on the part of AZ to proceed the way it did in relation to the UK contract and subsequently.
Which brings me to the phrase ‘flooding the zone’ which was the dubious gift of Steve Bannon. As noted here:
It was distilled almost perfectly by Steve Bannon, the former head of Breitbart News and chief strategist for Donald Trump. “The Democrats don’t matter,” Bannon reportedly said in 2018. “The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with s**t.”
Which is to say:
This idea isn’t new, but Bannon articulated it about as well as anyone can. The press ideally should sift fact from fiction, and give the public the information it needs to make enlightened political choices. If you short-circuit that process by saturating the ecosystem with misinformation and overwhelm the media’s ability to mediate, then you can disrupt the democratic process.
None of this exonerates the EU in the slightest. They should have been much much more careful in their approach. But nor is what is happening happening in a vacuum. The EU can be inept and AZ and the UK can have acted in ways that were deeply problematic. And as noted previously, the worst of this is the sense that leaving this to corporations and national governments was the wrong way to go from the off. Perhaps in an age of Trump and Johnston and others that was always baked into the system, but small wonder a global push against the virus has been sorely lacking, or indeed any sense of global solidarity. And no surprise that one can read this yesterday evening.
A way forward? Well, yesterday evening despite a warning in the Commons from Johnson about a vaccine blockade by the EU on Britain there was this:
The UK government and the European commission said in a joint statement on Wednesday evening that talks on a compromise were ongoing, and that they were working on a “win-win” solution to expand vaccine supply. It was clear, however, that a resolution remained some way off.
The new face of FG? March 25, 2021
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Mentioned over the weekend, but Stephen Collins latest thoughts on possible problems for Fine Gael were very interesting indeed. Indeed his framing of the issue, as a potential threat to the survival of the government was striking. This, in reference to the following:
As well as facing the unprecedented pressure of dealing with the pandemic, the Coalition is also facing internal political pressures which could have a seriously destabilising impact on its ability to govern. The Garda investigation into the leaking of a confidential document by Tánaiste Leo Varadkar in 2019 has the capacity to cause a convulsion in Fine Gael. While nobody in the party, or in the wider Coalition, believes that Varadkar did anything seriously wrong in leaking the document to try and win the support of doctors for a national pay deal, a decision to prosecute would be political dynamite.
And he argues:
Given the severe way Varadkar dealt with party colleagues who attended the golf dinner in Clifden last summer believing it was within the Covid rules, he will be in deep trouble if the Director of Public Prosecutions decides a prosecution is warranted in his case. A decision one way or the other is expected by June.
That would indeed be political dynamite if a Tánaiste had to leave office. But it would have significant ramifications within Fine Gael. There’s long been a reckoning, I’ve thought, in relation to Fine Gael’s less than stellar performance in 2020 under Varadkar. In a way he was fortunate that Fianna Fáil did near enough equally badly and that the two parties were unable to construct an alternative other than a coalition between them to govern. At the least that made constructing that coalition more palatable for politicians in each party (as well, perhaps as the sheer low number of TDs for both parties easing pressures on governmental positions, if only slightly).
So who would be the next leader?
A call for solidarity in the pandemic… March 25, 2021
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Useful discussion on RTÉ Morning Ireland during the week with Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He argued that with variants it was necessary to ramp up the restrictions yet further. To which the response was… ‘the difficulty is that at a time when you say we need to ramp up is a time when people have reached the limit of their capacity to stick to these restrictions, they’re tired and they’re exhausted.’
His point was basic. ‘Certainly they’re tired and they’re exhausted, but I’m not sure what the alternative is…’ and he paused ‘I’m not quite sure what the alternative is because if you actually open up everything you get a situation like Brazil which we can see where hospitals are overwhelmed, the oxygen is running out and people are dying in enormous numbers and I don’t think society can tolerate that.’
He had two other thoughts. One the vaccines are reducing transmission, but people can be left behind, the homeless and minority populations. Secondly the summer is coming and gathering outdoors is less risky. That said he noted that the vaccines needed to incorporate everyone including children and tests are ongoing in that regard.
He made the point this is about solidarity. A key point.
Meanwhile, all the above, and other contributions that are similar, is being ignored by various media commentators. For example Matt Cooper in the SBP at the weekend had this gem:
There’s no doubt that lobbying has to be seen for what it is, and that many of those who sought the easing or ending of restrictions at various times over the past year underestimated the public health dangers of the pandemic.
Buckets of salt have been required in assessing some of the claims, particularly from some publicans, hoteliers, restaurateurs and airline bosses, and from the construction sector, to take just a few examples.
But at the same time, many of them have legitimate arguments to make about their continued viability and ability to provide employment. Add in some of the self-employed too, many of whom are struggling greatly financially because of a collapse in income caused by lockdown restrictions.
It has been said many times – correctly and aptly – that those making the decisions don’t have to worry about receiving their next pay cheques. Even at a subliminal level, this must inform their decisions.
Twice in recent weeks, Nphet has done things that give rise to concerns that it can be unduly conservative and overly cautious in its approach. Transparency is clearly a good thing, and any leaks prior to any announcement would likely lead to allegations of attempted cover-up.
This line about how those who make the decisions don’t have to worry about their pay cheques is risible. As is the idea that this has a ‘subliminal’ effect. Note that no evidence is brought forward to support this contention. To be honest it’s a bizarre idea – those who make decisions are locked into social networks where partners, offspring and friends are in the private sector. Some of those will have themselves worked in the private sector. Some may still in some capacity or another. The idea that they’re all insulated from their actions is a crock. Moreover it is an evasionary crock. As McKee notes on RTÉ what is the alternative? Put in businesspeople and the answers to the math still come out the same. Open up and the virus spreads.
Cooper concludes by saying:
Maybe the right approach is being taken for public health needs, but more debate has to be had, and the voice of business and economic interests cannot be dismissed.
But he cannot evade reality. As soon as the virus spreads businesses will inevitably close – not just because as he says society cannot countenance fatalities, but because most people in the society will not go into situations where the risk is too high. One may suspect that Cooper thinks there’s some way of short circuiting or wishing away or ignoring that dynamic but nowhere has it proven to be so.
One can contextualise other contributions to this issue in similar terms. For example Jack Horgan-Jones in the IT quotes the following:
A senior official says there is a “central problem” with the power located in Nphet, namely that “focusing purely on the disease leads to a certain view”. Other criticisms from politicians, advisers and officials are well-rehearsed: that the team is unwieldy, full of civil servants, has been slow to act on issues like masking and antigen testing, and ultimately retains too much agenda-setting power. Some on the political side also argue the chief medical officer is too central. “Locating all the institutional power of Nphet in one individual means they carry too much power and too much responsibility.”
Uh-huh. And the alternative being?
There have been attempts to redress the power balance, with varying degrees of success. The Senior Officials Group, led by Fraser, was designed to blend Nphet advice with wider perspectives before they were sent to the Cabinet Covid subcommittee. However, it has had limited success, often overtaken by events, as well as the force and high visibility of Nphet recommendations.
That’s an interesting way to put it – ‘often overtaken by events’. What were those events? Numbers rising. What did they rise on the back of? Lifting of restrictions. What was the result? Increased cases and increased deaths. Again the problem is that this equation is now well known. There is an inevitability to the outcomes because that is the way that a viral pandemic works. And all the Senior Officials Group’s in the world will not alter the trajectory of the virus in the slightest by ‘reopening’ without vaccination.
For three of the last 10 days, no deaths were recorded. The highest number of daily deaths was 18. This compares to a peak of about 100 deaths on the worst day of the third wave in mid-February.
But it takes a moments thought to realise that he’s not comparing like and like. Deaths follow increased case numbers – those deaths were the ones that were a result of infection across December and into January on foot of loosened restrictions. Now we are in a period of heightened restrictions and so numbers of deaths have fallen, but if restrictions are lifted again… well, come on, he must know this stuff. Most of us do. Yet he feels comfortable in stating:
The early vaccination of vulnerable groups has clearly helped to cut the death toll from Covid-19. While still deadly, we are unlikely to see the kind of mortality we witnessed twice in this pandemic again.
And there we have it. Hope over experience, unfounded assertions over fact.
In the UK the Guardian has a more sober analysis of what is likely to happen next there in a state where about 40% of the adult population has had at least one of two shots of vaccine. And the following has an explicit warning in regard to too rapid moves from restrictions in advance of sufficient numbers vaccinated…
Dr Anne Cori of Imperial College London, who is modelling the coronavirus outbreak, said what happens in the coming weeks is uncertain, but with the dominant Kent variant so transmissible, we can inspect the epidemic to grow as Britain comes out of lockdown. “We would expect more cases, but also more hospitalisations and deaths as we unlock,” she said. All the modelling has highlighted the importance of reaching high vaccine coverage before relaxing restrictions, she said, “to keep this ‘third wave’ to a minimal level.” If a slow down in vaccine rollout is not countered by slower relaxation, we can expect more hospitalisations and deaths. Imperial modelling suggests the UK can expect a further 30,000 coronavirus deaths by next June.
If that’s the situation in a polity where so many are now given at least part protection, what about in one where so relatively few are?
Candidate selection March 24, 2021
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Her candidacy has divided the 16-strong parliamentary party. Six of its 16 TDs, including Deputy Leader Catherine Martin, support the party running a candidate. However a majority of 10 opposed the proposal and say the party should have no candidate in the byelection.
Likewise, the party’s executive council also did not agree to holding a selection convention to select a candidate.
However, because the required two-thirds majority was not reached in any of the fora, it meant there was no whipped decision, and therefore no bar on Ms Chu running as an independent candidate.
Do other parties have similar approaches or is this unique to the GP? And anyone know why the majority of GP parliamentarians were against a GP candidate in the first place?
Podcast -Nan Joyce March 24, 2021
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A look at the November 1982 General Election campaign of Nan Joyce , the first member of the Travelling Community to run for the Dáil.
So far but no further March 24, 2021
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Biden will perhaps have to make tough choices on immigration, but while he has been repeatedly vocal in stressing the imperativeness of protecting the Belfast Agreement, he is unlikely to frame a foreign policy that pushes the Irish unity agenda. China, climate change and Russia loom much larger, as do what Biden and others have termed the “forever wars” of the Middle East.
And he counterposes this with the following view:
Niall O’Dowd, founder of the Irish Voice newspaper, has suggested that the fallout from Brexit combined with Biden’s interest in Ireland “makes it a good time for Irish-America and Irish nationalism generally to engage in a discussion about unification”. But the recent flurry of advertising in America by Friends of Sinn Féin around a Border poll and the need for the Irish Government “to promote and plan” for unity is unlikely to push Biden outside of the current Irish Government’s comfort zone when it comes to that issue.
And yet, I can’t help but wonder is that an argument pitching best against better. I mean that in the sense that unlike the Trump Administration, where as Ferriter (see quote below) notes there were many Irish Americans, for all the good it did, the Biden Administration seems to genuinely be supportive of the status quo ante – that is the GFA/BA dispensation and all that it entailed including an invisible border on this island. Small wonder given that it was a Democrat administration that was pivotal in shaping that agreement.
And while it would, no doubt, be very useful to have a US administration that was more supportive of unification – though one imagines such support would have to be kept somewhat low-key in order not to be in and of itself potentially destabilising, having that status quo ante defended is actually a pretty good place for any Irish government to find itself, even this one which is clearly deeply disturbed by talk of unity.
So I’d tend to see the current situation as perhaps as good as things can get.
Still, Ferriter does note a likely new factor in the equation.
Irish Americans were a prominent part of the last White House administration and will be in the current one, but this “greening” will probably remain largely poetic. The next interesting chapter in the Irish-American political story is likely to involve a Sinn Féin taoiseach seeking a sympathetic hearing for the Irish unity case but, as with a century ago, that might remain a step too far for the White House.
Nothing is static. And that will be a fascinating development, should it come to pass, in and of itself – a government that will perhaps be the most pro-unity in generations. And in a context where the situation on the ground has itself changed radically from earlier periods, with cross-border links, power-sharing at Stormont and a Britain that seems preoccupied with its own woes.
A novel defense… March 24, 2021
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…from Sidney Powell, Trump supporter and member of the legal team that…
…sought to steal the 2020 election for Donald Trump [who] is defending herself against a billion-dollar defamation lawsuit by arguing…
Yes…
….that “no reasonable person” could have mistaken her wild claims about election fraud last November as statements of fact.
Huh?
In a motion to dismiss a complaint by the large US-based voting machine company Dominion, lawyers for Sidney Powell argued that elaborate conspiracies she laid out on television and radio last November while simultaneously suing to overturn election results in four states constituted legally protected first amendment speech.
“No reasonable person would conclude that the statements were truly statements of fact,” argued lawyers for Powell, a former federal prosecutor from Texas who caught Trump’s attention through her involvement in the defense of former national security adviser Michael Flynn.
Some entertaining responses on twitter…
“This is her defense. Wow,” tweeted Republican representative Adam Kinzinger.
“Bad argument!” tweeted Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen. “[Powell] should have gone with an insanity defense due to #TrumpDerangementSyndrome.”
“Shorter Sidney Powell: suckers!” tweeted Charlie Sykes, an editor of the anti-Trump conservative publication the Bulwark.
But Sykes et al are correct.
Not least due to this:
In her defense against the Dominion defamation lawsuit, Powell argued that whatever “reasonable persons” thought of her wild claims, Dominion had failed to demonstrate that she herself thought them to be false as she spoke them – a key distinction in defamation cases.
“In fact,” Powell’s motion reads, “she believed the allegations then and she believes them now.”
Words fail…
What you want to say – 24th March 2021 March 24, 2021
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As always, following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.
Not a surprise… March 23, 2021
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Thanks to JH for pointing to this news…
Sturgeon wins confidence vote in Scottish parliament by 65 votes to 31
Almost needless to say that was a Tory 31, with Labour and LDs abstaining (and Green Party voting with the SNP)perhaps seeing what way the wind was going.
