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Atmospheric CO2
February 2021
416.46
parts per million (ppm)
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Scripps UCSD)
Preliminary data released March 4, 2021
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Global Warming Update
January Global Temperature Change*
January Rankings: 1880 - 2021 Temperature Record
Comparisons with 20th Century Global Average Surface Temperature
(Temperatures are not compared here with a pre-industrial baseline)
Rank |
Year |
Change in
|
Hottest January |
2020 |
+1.15°C +2.07°F |
7th Hottest January |
2021 |
+0.80°C +1.44°F |
Coolest January |
1893 |
-0.74°C -1.33°F |
Data retrieved: February 21, 2021 |
*Surface temperature changes relative to 20th Century global average (1901 - 2000)
Source data NOAA-NCDC State of the Climate: Global Analysis [Web + data download]
Monthly Temperature: January 2021
"During the month, a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurred in late December through early January. During that time, the stratospheric polar vortex warmed dramatically and its jet stream weakened. As is typical for SSW events, it was followed by a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for most of January. These patterns are usually associated with colder temperatures for the eastern U.S. and for Europe. The cold anomalies were observed in Europe with a deep and persistent trough. However, the ridge from Greenland extended southwestward and brought above normal temperatures to the Northern U.S. The ridge was part of a wavetrain from the Pacific with positive Pacific-North America (PNA) /Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) patterns during the first two to three weeks of January. That wavetrain featured an enhanced ridge over the subtropical Pacific and a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Just as the ridge was unusual for the negative AO/NAO, the positive PNA wavetrain is also unusual for the ongoing La Niña event. SSW events are also associated with more intense winter storms. For additional information on the polar vortex, please see NOAA's article: The science behind the polar vortex.
The January 2021 global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.80°C (1.44°F) above the 20th century average and ranked as the seventh warmest January in the 142-year global records. January 2021 also marked the 45th consecutive January and the 433rd consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.
The year began with a La Niña episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean that started in August 2020. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect global temperatures. La Niña tends to cool global temperatures slightly, while El Niño tends to boost global temperatures. With a slightly cool start to the year, there is only a 2.9% chance of 2021 ending as the warmest year on record. However, there is an over 99% chance of the year ranking among the 10 warmest years on record.
During January 2021, northern North America, northern Africa, southeastern Europe, and parts of the Middle East had the most notable temperature departures that were at least 2.5°C (4.5°F) above average. Parts of the North and South Pacific and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean (off the U.S. Northeast coast) also had notable warm temperature departures at 2.0°C (3.6°F) above average or higher. Record warm January temperatures were present across parts of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, as well as, parts of eastern Canada, northern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern Asia. As a whole, about 5.93% of the world's surface had a record-warm January temperature–the third highest January percentage since records began in 1951. Only Januarys of 2016 (15.73%) and 2020 (7.05%) had a higher percentage of record warm January temperatures. Meanwhile, much of northern Asia was at least 2.0°C (3.6°F) colder than average, in stark contrast to most of 2020, when the region was well above average. Additionally, cooler-than-average conditions were present across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, consistent with La Niña conditions, as well as southeastern Pacific Ocean and the northern Atlantic Ocean (off the coast of Greenland). A small area in the southeastern Pacific Ocean had a record cold January temperature, which represents only 0.25% of the globe. January 2021 marked the first time since October 2019 (0.37%) where a record cold temperature occurred."
[NOAA/NCEI global analysis accessed February 21, 2021]
Dec. 2020: Columbia University Reports Observed Acceleration in Global Warming:
"Abstratct: Record global temperature in 2020, despite a strong La Niña in recent months, reaffirms a global warming acceleration that is too large to be unforced noise – it implies an increased growth rate of the total global climate forcing and Earth’s energy imbalance. Growth of measured forcings (greenhouse gases plus solar irradiance) decreased during the period of increased warming, implying that atmospheric aerosols probably decreased in the past decade. There is a need for accurate aerosol measurements and improved monitoring of Earth’s energy imbalance.
November 2020 was the warmest November in the period of instrumental data, thus jumping 2020 ahead of 2016 in the 11-month averages. December 2016 was relatively cool, so it is clear that 2020 will slightly edge 2016 for the warmest year, at least in the GISTEMP analysis. The rate of global warming accelerated in the past 6-7 years (Fig. 2). The deviation of the 5-year (60 month) running mean from the linear warming rate is large and persistent; it implies an increase in the net climate forcing and Earth’s energy imbalance, which drive global warming."
Fig. 2. Global temperature and Niño3.4 Index through November 2020.
Columbia U "Global Warming Acceleration" (Hansen & Sato) published & accessed December 14, 2020
"The science is sobering—the global temperature in 2012 was among the hottest since records began in 1880. Make no mistake: without concerted action, the very future of our planet is in peril."
~ Christine Lagarde, in 2012
Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
[video][text]
NOAA annual global analysis for 2020:
"With a slightly cooler end to the year, the year 2020 secured the rank of second warmest year in the 141-year record, with a global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average of +0.98°C (+1.76°F). This value is only 0.02°C (0.04°F) shy of tying the record high value of +1.00°C (+1.80°F) set in 2016 and only 0.03°C (0.05°F) above the now third warmest year on record set in 2019. The seven warmest years in the 1880–2020 record have all occurred since 2014, while the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. The year 1998 is no longer among the 10 warmest years on record, currently ranking as the 11th warmest year in the 141-year record. The year 2020 marks the 44th consecutive year (since 1977) with global land and ocean temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.
The decadal global land and ocean surface average temperature anomaly for 2011–2020 was the warmest decade on record for the globe, with a surface global temperature of +0.82°C (+1.48°F) above the 20th century average. This surpassed the previous decadal record (2001–2010) value of +0.62°C (+1.12°F).
The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.08°C (0.14°F) per decade since 1880 and over twice that rate (+0.18°C / +0.32°F) since 1981.
The 2020 Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the highest in the 141-year record at +1.28°C (+2.30°F) above average. This was 0.06°C (0.11°F) higher than the previous record set in 2016. Meanwhile, the annual Southern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the fifth highest on record."
[NOAA/NCEI global analysis for 2020 accessed February 21, 2021].
"Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much."
~ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies [NASA post of January 20, 2016]
Before the end of 2015, scientists projected that average global temperature increase for 2015 will exceed 1°C above pre-industrial levels. The years 1850-1900 are used as the pre-industrial baseline by the MET Office and Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the UK. The MET Office released this statement in November 2015:
"This year marks an important first but that doesn't necessarily mean every year from now on will be a degree or more above pre-industrial levels, as natural variability will still play a role in determining the temperature in any given year. As the world continues to warm in the coming decades, however, we will see more and more years passing the 1 degree marker - eventually it will become the norm."
~ Peter Stott
Head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution (MET Office)