David A. Hopkins

@DaveAHopkins

Political scientist at Boston College & author of Red Fighting Blue / Asymmetric Politics / Presidential Elections. American politics blogger at Honest Graft.

Boston, MA
honestgraft.com
Menyertai Mei 2011
117 Foto atau video 117 Foto dan video Foto dan video

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  1. Tweet Dipinkan
    27 Nov 2017

    My new book, Red Fighting Blue: How Geography and Electoral Rules Polarize American Politics, is now available in the UK & Europe as well as the USA! Wonder why today's politics is so divided by party, ideology, and geography? This is the book for you:

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  2. Mengetweet Semula
    6 jam lalu

    Ideological divides among partisans deepen: Conservatism among Republicans is at its highest level in polls back 22 years ( ) Details:

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  3. 9 jam lalu

    More bad polls for Trump, but I’m skeptical about the interpretation (that he’s losing ground in AZ/FL/TX due to new outbreaks). These results are consistent with pre-outbreak polling in all 3 states, and a tie in AZ is actually relatively good for Trump compared to other polls.

    CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Virus outbreak reshapes presidential race in Sun Belt
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  4. 10 Jul

    As I tell students, you can look at 90%+ re-election rates and think that members of Congress must feel entrenched. But if we expelled 10% of the university student body every two years in front of the media & public, you'd probably work hard not to be one of the ones thrown out.

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  5. 10 Jul

    As Josh says, most politicians are professional paranoiacs. But it's rational self-interest for a member in Slotkin's position to warn supporters & $$$ donors against complacency. Doesn't mean she's right about polls, & much more to this profile than that.

    Great read. Keep in mind Slotkin represents one of the most vulnerable districts in the entire House. Members almost uniformly discount their odds and inflate their flaws whether that's votes, polls, or campaigns.
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  6. Mengetweet Semula
    10 Jul

    Great read. Keep in mind Slotkin represents one of the most vulnerable districts in the entire House. Members almost uniformly discount their odds and inflate their flaws whether that's votes, polls, or campaigns.

    🚨 DON’T BELIEVE THE POLLS showing a Biden blowout, Elissa Slotkin warns fellow Dems🚨 She thinks the data is dead wrong. “They fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote” in 2016, she says. “I believe that same thing is happening right now.”
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  7. 8 Jul

    We've haven't seen any real indication that the Trump campaign is contesting Colorado or Virginia in 2020, or that Biden is investing in defending either state. VA was last safely Democratic in a presidential election in the 1940s, CO in...maybe 1916?

    RECAP -- The Trump campaign is currently up on TV in local markets in 12 states: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, WI The Trump camp has booked ad schedules for the fall in 10 states: AZ, FL, IA, MI, MN, NV, NC, OH, PA, WI (no reservations in GA and NM yet)
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  8. 7 Jul

    Were Democratic Voters Right About Biden's Electability?

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  9. Mengetweet Semula
    7 Jul

    Were Democratic Voters Right About Biden's Electability? ( / Honest Graft)

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  10. 7 Jul

    Were Democratic Voters Right About Biden's Electability?

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  11. 6 Jul

    This is being treated like it's something unique to Trump and the current moment, but it's been true of most Republican politicians for decades:

    Worth noting that White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany — speaking on behalf of the White House and President Trump — so far has repeatedly been unable to take any unambiguous stance about the place of the Confederate flag in our society.
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  12. Mengetweet Semula
    6 Jul

    Cable news ratings were very high for the first half of 2020. Fox News built a much larger prime-time lead over MSNBC.

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  13. 6 Jul

    Now, there are simply no good options when you're this far behind. But it does seem to confirm recent polls suggesting that the traditional northern battlegrounds (WI, PA) are still the pivotal states in the EC for now, despite the hype about AZ. Worth keeping an eye on as we go.

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  14. 6 Jul

    Trump has problems all over, but the big warning flares in this article are about the PA-MI-WI axis. For all the talk about the Sun Belt shifting Dem & Midwest trending GOP, his camp thinks it may need a Clinton state in the Southwest because of weakness in the Frost Belt. (2/3)

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  15. 6 Jul

    If you're Team Trump, "Can we still win the election if we lose Wisconsin?" is not the question you want to be asking at this point, and "Yes, if we flip New Hampshire plus Nevada or New Mexico" is not a very reassuring answer. (1/3)

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  16. 4 Jul

    Today's NY Times story on mask-wearing in West Texas identifies an idea that is essential to understanding why COVID became so polarized in the US: the belief that a conservative COVID response must *by definition* differ from the liberal COVID response:

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  17. 4 Jul

    My guess is that it'll be Biden's running mate, whomever she might be, who will become the "scary left-wing mob ruler" targeted by GOP attacks in the fall, with Biden portrayed as too out-of-it to limit her power:

    This is a great point by Alex. Making Biden into scary left-wing mob ruler is tough. And, the senile thing isn’t getting much traction either. So, bring back the AOC/Pelosi attacks and hope that gives suburban voters enough pause to split tickets.
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  18. 2 Jul

    Now that red-state America is the center of viral spread, the partisan dynamics of the issue are changing. COVID contrarianism is losing its appeal for GOP institutions:

    Fox News streaming service was set to give coronavirus skeptic Alex Berenson show, but show page (below) has been scrubbed. “This guy has nothing to do with Fox News,” spokesperson told me. Bigger story is that Fox News is changing pandemic coverage.
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  19. Mengetweet Semula
    2 Jul

    I examine the upset win. I argue it does not show a big change in the national Democratic Party. It shows that there is a progressive infrastructure in New York that is powerful but unique. Posted at

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  20. Mengetweet Semula
    2 Jul

    Also suggests that, as of now, third-party candidates playing less of a role this cycle than they were at a similar point in 2016.

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  21. 2 Jul

    Money seldom decides general elections for president, & very unlikely in 2020. Both sides will have a ton, Biden & (especially) Trump are already known quantities, and events/crises will dominate. DNC & RNC would be smart to divert funds downballot, especially state-level races.

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