The libertarian personality

Here are some thoughts in reaction to the many interesting comments on my post on Peter Thiel.

1. Is libertarianism elitist?

I believe so. I think that most people value their own liberty, but they have a hard time extending this value to strangers who they do not entirely trust. It takes a lot of sophistication to appreciate enumerated powers, free speech, and the emergent order of market competition. Instead, I think that Fear Of Others’ Liberty is the norm. I believe that America’s Constitution was designed by elites, and as we gradually extended the franchise to include more FOOLs the Constitutional safeguards have been crushed under the weight of popular opinion.

2. Is libertarianism a white male ideology?

I don’t know whether there are racial differences, but I think I that empathizer-systemizer theory can explain statistical differences in male-female attitudes. To be libertarian, you have to look at the super-Dunbar world from the perspective of a systemizer rather than an empathizer, which means that libertarians are more likely to be found among males than among females.

3. Why are libertarians unwilling to sign up as conservatives or progressives?

Conservatives make concessions to FOOLs in order to get elected. Currently, these concessions include tariffs and immigration restrictions. Even worse, these concessions have for a long time included deficit spending and expansion of state power in the name of providing safety and security. Worst of all, conservatives long ago abandoned the doctrine of enumerated powers.

In practice, conservatives usually do not overturn progressive initiatives. Obamacare is the latest example.

Progressives propose government policies from an empathizer perspective. They will gladly toss away personal liberty in order to “help” people. Lockdowns are the latest example.

4. I think that many (most?) libertarians feel culturally in tune with college-educated progressives. I am an exception to that. I find that you can be smart and nice without a college degree, and you can be intellectually uninteresting and/or personally nasty with one.

My wife and most people in our social circle are not academics. On occasions where I have to spend a lot of time with a group of college professors, I am relieved when the gathering is over. When I was at Freddie Mac, I became bored with other economists, and I eventually gravitated toward people with experience in the mortgage business and/or information systems. When I started my Internet business, after about a year I found a partner who had only a high-school equivalency degree.

In business, I noticed that I did not like meetings attended primarily by males, nor did I like meetings attended primarily by females. At parties, when men congregate in one room and women congregate in another room, I find myself unable to engage in either conversation, and I usually end up talking to someone else who is feeling left out.

The bottom line is that I seem to get along ok with various types of people, without feeling especially sympatico with people in my field or with my level of education. Perhaps that leads me to be less inclined than other libertarians to side with progressives.

Posted in Libertarian Thought | 20 Comments

Paternalism is a dominance move

Robin Hanson writes,

Like most animals, humans strive to dominate each other, in order to rise in the local “pecking order”. And control over ourselves and others is widely taken as one of the strongest signs of dominance and non-submission. But unlike other animals, humans have norms against overt dominance and submission, and norms promoting pro-social behavior, that helps others. So we do push to dominate, but we pretend that we are actually just trying to help. And as usual, we are typically not consciously aware of our hypocrisy. In our mind, we are mainly aware of how they are doing the wrong things, and how they would be so much better off if only we could make them do things our way.

I am fond of the dichotomy between prestige hierarchies and dominance hierarchies. You get prestige by being good at something. You get dominance by imposing your will on others. For me, it’s pretty simple. Yay for prestige moves, boo for dominance moves. Actually, it gets complicated because the process for creating norms for prestige can involve dominance moves.

As an aside, a reader points out that Robin Hanson engages in asymmetric insight, which means not taking people at their word. An essential part of Robin’s outlook is his view that people’s true motives differ from what they themselves claim or even believe them to be. I would love to see a debate between Robin and Jeffrey Friedman on this issue. Jeffrey thinks that not taking people at their word is a violation of intellectual charity.

Posted in Jeffrey Friedman is provocative, The Wisdom of Robin Hanson | 19 Comments

Virus update

Jeff Harris, who did some research claiming that the NY subway system affected the outbreak there, is still ringing that bell.

That leaves us with the public transportation system, particularly New York City’s public subway system. We continue to stress the word system, because we should think of the subways not as a loose aggregate of individual stations docked in individual neighborhoods, but as a whole, as a mechanism for efficiently pooling millions of individuals into one large mixing basin.

New York City’s unique subway system had the capability in late February and early March to rapidly disperse SARS-CoV-2 throughout the city’s boroughs

Elsewhere, Harris notes that the falling ratio of deaths to reported cases suggests that treatment is getting better. That goes along with my prediction that treatment is more likely than a vaccine to be the solution.

Tyler Cowen notes that testing with rapid results could change the game, also, and he put some grant money where his mouth is. Read the whole post.

Suppose that with current best treatment practices (aided by rapid-results testing?), out of 10,000 otherwise healthy people who get the virus, fewer than 5 suffer adverse long-term consequences. Are we still supposed to structure our lives around fear of the virus?

Of course, health experts cannot or will not give us an estimate of how many out of 10,000 otherwise health people will suffer adverse long-term consequences if they get the virus. Because we are in the dark, every outbreak of cases becomes a justification for allowing our lives to be directed by health experts.

I note that this paper looks at India’s performance with respect to the virus by comparing age-specific case fatality rates across countries. The U.S. is not one of the comparison countries. Probably because we do not have the data broken down that way?

Posted in Tyler Cowen is my Favorite Blogger, virus crisis | 24 Comments

Michael Anton’s Republican Party

Michael Anton writes,

What’s needed, then, is a Trumpist political party focused squarely on “old economy”—rural, manufacturing, and blue-collar interests. Which means, in most if not all cases, a party actively opposed to the program of the ruling class. If the Republican Party can become that, all to the good. If it can’t, it should go out of business.

To me, that sounds like a party that stands for stagnation. A party with no vision for the future, only nostalgia for the past.

I will grant that the future on offer from the Democratic Party is dystopian. In my view, they want to “reform” what works (the market). They want to double down on what fails (state-run and state-subsidized education, health care, and “green” energy). And they want to cozy up to the religion that persecutes heretics.

The Republican Party that I would prefer would offer a better vision of the future. Let health care and education be reformed by market forces. Do so by reducing subsidies to demand and restrictions on supply. And protect the principles of the first amendment from the religion that persecutes heretics.

Posted in Politics | 48 Comments

Finding the best ideas

A commenter asks

How does one find the best ideas at present?

I think an important heuristic is to consider a person’s error correction mechanism. The vast majority of people try to create the impression that they are never wrong. That makes them untrustworthy by my heuristic.

One of the reasons that Scott Alexander is (was? will SlateStarCodex come back?) such a useful source of ideas is that he is very diligent, and even systematic, about error correction.

Posted in culture | 10 Comments

The authoritarian personality

This was in infamous concept that supposedly characterized the right. But Jordan Moss and Peter J. O’Connor write,

Individuals high in authoritarianism – regardless of whether the hold politically correct or rightwing views – tend to score highly on DT and entitlement. Such individuals therefore are statistically more likely than average to be higher in psychopathy, narcissism, Machiavellianism and entitlement. We found both moderate bivariate effects and unique effects (regression coefficients) and conclude that the DT and entitlement have important shared and unique effects in predicting our attitudinal outcomes.

Pointer from Zaid Jilani.

In other words, somebody who likes to act out extreme political views is likely to have the “dark triad” (DT) personality characteristics. But we are in an environment of “the other side does it,” so people are willing to excuse the nuts on their own side, which encourages them.

By the way, I have not seen one defense of President Trump’s executive orders bypassing Congress on the next round of “stimulus” that isn’t of the form “the other side does it.” That means it is not an acceptable defense, in my view.

Posted in Politics | 21 Comments

The other tribes

A reader asks,

I’m curious which writers you find best among the other tribes. Who do you read regularly so that you can take the most charitable view of those who disagree with the libertarian perspective?

1. I give points to anyone who looks at the virus crisis without saying that President Trump was a dominant causal factor. For example, Raj Chetty listening to the data tell him that individual responses preceded government lockdowns. I also give points to Chetty and to Amir Sufi for looking at the economic impact of the crisis without using a GDP factory framework.

2. I take points off from anyone who bashes libertarians as being responsible for things being in a bad state. If you ask me, there are many more opportunities to improve public policy by making it more libertarian, and there are very few opportunities for making public policy better by making it less libertarian. Feel free to make specific criticisms of libertarian points of view, but don’t disgrace yourself a la Niskanen Center.

3. For progressives now, I am most focused on their willingness to stand up for old-fashioned liberal values, such as free speech. So I give credit to Jonathan Haidt and Bret Weinstein and I enjoy listening to them. I like progressives who are willing to speak out for policy positions that go against their own tribe. In the past, I have mentioned William Galston and the Progressive Policy Institute as examples. Jason Furman would be another example.

4. For conservatives now, I am focused on their willingness to stand up for old-fashioned conservative values, such as fiscal responsibility and civility. Yuval Levin. George Will. Megan McArdle. I am probably overlooking many others.

5. These days, it is important to me to see writers who are not heavily dug in on President Trump. Some conservatives are too intent on supporting him. Many progressives are too insistent on attacking him.

Posted in Libertarian Thought | 25 Comments

Has Peter Thiel gone neo-reactionary?

Brian Doherty writes,

Claremont’s web journal The American Mind, though, was launched in 2018 with a more provocative agenda: to “rethink the ideological framework of the American Right.” The animating idea, founding editor Matthew Peterson explains, is that traditional right-of-center groups are out of touch: They don’t even realize that their own staffs include “people under 35″ who “fundamentally disagree with supposedly fundamental [classical liberal] tenets of their organization. No one wants to hear or deal with it. They want to stick their heads in the sand.” A vibrant and ideologically adventurous new conservative movement, Peterson says, is “bubbling beneath the surface, or even online all over the place. We are not supposed to talk about these things or engage that movement?”

Yarvin is perhaps better known for the pen name under which he rose to internet fame in the late 2000s and early 2010s: “Mencius Moldbug.” At his Unqualified Reservations blog, Moldbug, a software entrepreneur by day, unspooled head-spinningly long-winded “neoreactionary” screeds. . .

I think that Wikipedia credits me with coining the term “neoreactionary.” Doherty shares my concern that national conservatism is neoreactionary and throws libertarians under the bus. His essay connects Peter Thiel to the neoreactionary view, but Doherty admits to being unsure about exactly where Thiel stands.

To the neoreactionaries, the libertarians are too soft to fight a war against the religion that identifies and persecutes heretics. To libertarians, a war to the death between neoreactionaries and that religion would be a war with no winner.

I think of the war as having three fronts.

1. The media. There, the social justice warriors have captured the most famous brands, but the Internet has diluted the importance of those brands. I might resent the NYT, but I do not fear it.

2. Politics. To me, this is a weird front, because I think most voters don’t think they have a dog in the fight, so that the outcome of elections does not tell us how much people like or don’t like the social justice religion. This November, I think that as long as there is a clear winner, the post-election period will find the social justice activists and the more reasonable left battling one another. It would be nice to let the fight play out, rather than to have an all out right-vs.-left battle. My worst fear, though, is that there will be no clear winner in November, in which case the social justice activists and the center-left will stick to one another like glue as they fight for Biden to defeat Trump in the contested aftermath.

3. Intellectuals. Here, my hope is that universities will go down the path of the media. That is, the famous brands will lose their luster, and alternative arenas for developing and debating ideas will become increasingly influential. Personally, I would rather fight the religion on this front than on the other two.

Posted in Libertarian Thought | 25 Comments

My recent reading

Arthur Herman, The Idea of Decline in Western History. Originally published in 1997, but there is a 2010 edition. It is an intellectual history, somewhat sprawling and tangled. I get the sense that the book should have made more of a splash than it did, and that I should have come across it sooner.

He draws a distinction between what he calls “historical pessimism” and “cultural pessimism.” I think of it in terms of the REM anthem, “It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.” Both types of pessimists agree with the first phrase, and the cultural pessimists add the last four words. They want to see the world end so that they can create it anew. I think there is a pretty obvious link between cultural pessimism and the religion that is animated by finding and persecuting heretics.

Non-pessimists these days would be people like Matt Ridley or Steven Pinker. Many conservatives are historical pessimists, who fear for the fragility of civilization.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

From the Wayback Machine

An email correspondent asked me for my essay on competitive government vs. democracy, and I had to go to the Wayback Machine to find it.

What is needed to implement competitive government are rules, procedures, and norms that allow groups of citizens to secede from existing government programs and regulations while forming new organizations to provide services in different ways. Competitive government requires easy entry and easy exit relative to government functions.

Worth re-reading. Contains the core ideas of the widely-unread Unchecked and Unbalanced.

Posted in Libertarian Thought, links to my essays | 6 Comments