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Hello all - I’m back on here, back in economics and after a few weeks wilfully getting lost in transit, am newly on here, and shortly on air in a new role as Economics Editor of the BBC.. first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics...https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48903058 …
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Faisal Islam Retweeted
Many members of our college community and beyond have expressed their concern for the potential impact of yesterday’s A Level results on this year’s incoming students. There is some information here: https://www.worc.ox.ac.uk/about/news/worcester-college-places-all-uk-offer-holders …
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From our head of stats
@robertcuffe - lockdown hotspots for infection aren’t so far leading to spikes in hospitalisation...https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53772459 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Faisal Islam Retweeted
“I wanted to make everyone that believed in me proud… I knew I could get those grades if I actually did the exams.” Mithushan Thiagarajah had an offer to read medicine at Cambridge and was predicted 4 A*s. Today he was downgraded and the offer has been withdrawn.
#Newsnightpic.twitter.com/40l2x9o7sXBBC NewsnightSubscribe to BBC Newsnight on YouTube. Like us on Facebook. Catch up on iPlayer https://bbc.in/2Ps915GThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Tonally Chancellor different, perhaps unsurprising given -20% figure... talked to me about “hard times” about the need for “humility” in policy making because there is no “playbook” for this pandemic recession situation...https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1293493509979340800?s=21 …
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interesting interview with Chancellor - adamant furlough will not be extended, said it would not do people favours to “pretend” absolutely everybody’s jobs would return... also asked him why UK was at wrong end of both G7 excess death and GDP comparisons:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53749788 …
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UK double whammy: Putting together three different measures of G7 major economy excess deaths during pandemic peak, with Q2 GDP fall (Japan/ Canada is a forecast, TBC) - from our calculations with
@HealthFdn in June. UK at wrong end of both calcs..pic.twitter.com/ro3FJF8v4vShow this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Some of that growth has rebounded in June as the economy started top reopen - up 8.7% in June alone - as lights that were switched off to aid public health were switched back on - question is how long that sustains over next few months...
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ONS international comparison - bigger economic hit than G7 countries that have reported so far, a bit smaller than Spain...pic.twitter.com/9c9E3BjrMI
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It means that the UK on course for sharpest hit in G7 for the economy, (await official confirmation of Q2 for Japan and Canada, but forecasts are lower than 20%) and on the last figures calculated, for excess deaths from the pandemic too... Worst on record by far...pic.twitter.com/AdKfHW6JN5
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Recession confirmed by ONS - no surprise. But the sheer extent of this negative number - 20.4% in second quarter is still extraordinary. Mostly driven by what happened in April where a fraction ( a fifth) of the economy shut down, when it is normally fractions of a per cent....
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We saw industry internal memo on this in June - looks like Govt has not paid for warehousing yet - interesting this does acknowledge sufficient chance of disruption on the short straits at the end of the transition period that it needs to be planned for https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1269883125401882624?s=21 …https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1269883125401882624 …
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NEW: Govt writes to medicines industry to tell them to rebuild 6 week no trade deal Brexit stockpiles even while “recognising global supply chains under significant pressure, exacerbated by COVID-19” amid concerns for cross channel disruption after transition period ends:pic.twitter.com/1F4I1G7NXQ
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#ThankYouNHS from maternity ward of@ImperialNHS St Mary’s where stereo newborn screaming greeted#nhs72 & on NHS birthday, amazing midwives & medics here have again “delivered” as they always do Special shout out to Millie & all who kept maternity services going thru pandemicpic.twitter.com/tMEneSyRlSThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Take for example region around capital Rome, Lazio, population 5.9 million. Total deaths 841. Fewer than any region of England or nation of UK... Put another way, the pandemic spread to and around the UK and England far far more than it did from Lombardy, 400 miles to Rome /4
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3/ UK having more excess deaths than Italy is key here. Remember in early March lobby corrs being briefed Italy were the ones not to follow. Also, point of UK approach was to stop the health system being overwhelmed as it had done “in Italy”. ..Well it was only really Lombardy
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An explanation: UK had time advantage. But manner in which it arrived here, seeding after half term in every town /city across nation spreads it v wide v quickly. So quick distancing/ shutdown necc, but put off till end March. Then virus transferred deep into care home sector
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This Long Read seeks to deep dive into those numbers/patterns - and questions arising from, for now, having highest per capita deaths in G7... Was it really inevitable? consequence of London effect? Why does Italy now have fewer excess deaths than UK?https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53279391 …
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working with
@HealthFdn and@INETOxford put together comparable statistics for impact from pandemic over first wave so far, using different methods, and comparing with G7 and hardest hit in Europe... UK & England esp at rough end of all comparisons - Why? And What can we learn?https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1277643514030051331 …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
This argument - made by California Governors past and present including Arnie - to wear masks so that more small businesses can open up - not really made here: https://twitter.com/cagovernor/status/1274997980005675009?s=21 …https://twitter.com/CAgovernor/status/1274997980005675009 …
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