US deaths seen near 300,000 by December 1
The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation revised significantly higher its projection for the death toll in the US, undercutting optimism that perhaps progress was finally beginning to be made against the virus.
The IHME now projects 295,011 deaths in the US by December 1; so far 159,600 Americans have died because of the virus, according to the latest tally by Johns Hopkins University. The institute previously projected 230,822 deaths by November 1.
One simple way to fight the virus and lower the death toll would be wearing a mask, IHME director Dr Christopher Murray said. If 95 per cent of the people in the US were to wear masks when leaving home, more than 66,000 of the lives projected to be lost would be saved, he said.
"Masks and other protective measures against transmission of the virus are essential to staying COVID-free, but people’s inconsistent use of those measures is a serious problem," Dr Murray said.
The inconsistent use of masks reflects mixed messages on the need for them earlier this year, the lack now of a federal mandate and the politicisation of them - President Donald Trump rarely wears one and several Republican governors have blocked efforts by local officials to require them.
The end result, as well as reopening the economy too fast in some places, is that the virus continues to spread.
The US national average positive test rate is at 7.9 per cent over the past seven days, and Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Mississippi, Nevada and
Texas are each above 15 per cent, according to data from Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson.
"At the moment, we appear to be settling into a new level of COVID, down from the July peak but far above the" late May lows, Amherst Pierpont's Stephen Stanley said in a note.
Morgan Stanley continues to call the outbreak in the US "robust". It also continues to forecast about 6.5 million total known cases will be reached with a caveat: "We re-emphasise that our modelling is based on experiences from countries with stricter lockdown, and should be viewed as an optimistic outcome."
According to Johns Hopkins data, there are currently 4.87 million known cases in the US.
Dr Murray said that based on cases, hospitalisations, and deaths, several states are seeing increases in the transmission of COVID-19, including Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Virginia.
“These states may experience increasing cases for several weeks and then may see a response toward more responsible behaviour,” Dr Murray said.
If mask use is increased to 95 per cent, Dr Murray said the re-imposition of stricter mandates could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average.
The IHME model also assumes that 50 per cent of school districts in each state will opt for online instruction only for the 2020–2021 school year.
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