The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Great unease June 23, 2020

I think this sums up my own feelings very neatly in respect to the current period. Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett in the Guardian writes that:

…what’s weird is not the London of a few weeks ago, the eerie, empty stage that my husband and I walked onto, with Piccadilly Circus vacant but for the masked queue outside Boots, the famous advertisements all Covid-19-related messages of comfort and strength. No, what’s weird now is that things feel almost back to normal. Shops have opened, the traffic has resumed its flow, people blast music from cars, groups of people sit in parks, sharing crisps. Am I mad, I wonder, to still feel nervous?

The people a few houses down have been having parties in their garden. Meanwhile my dad, in north-west Wales, remains in almost total lockdown. There are the geographical discrepancies, but the other disconnect is psychological. People no longer bother with the 2-metre distance rule. Many aren’t wearing masks in shops. People no longer politely step aside to give one another space on park paths.

Someone put it to me the other day, that those of us who still observe the precepts of the government’s own guidance are treated by relatives and others as almost oddities, and on occasion as ‘mad’. It’s a strange feeling, as Cosslett notes:

What we are left with are people living in two parallel universes. In one, there are people who – knowing that the virus has not gone away – feel gaslit by the fact that things are opening up when there is absolutely no scientific reason for that to be happening.

Of course the virus in this state and perhaps on this island is well beaten back. But not to the extent that complacency should be the order of the day. There is still the need to social distance, to wash hands (arguably to wear masks) and so on. Yet there is also a sense, I see it every day on the streets, that all this is treated as optional and in many many instances disregarded.

Perhaps we dodge the bullet. Perhaps there will be no second wave. Perhaps we live in a world where social distancing is upheld kind of sort of in workplaces, to a lesser extent in places of entertainment, where there’s a bifurcation where many of us decide to avoid the latter for as long as it takes. Cosslett is understandably pessimistic about Britain:

I don’t know how, or when, these two realities will merge. I suspect that the more cautious among us will gradually loosen up in time for a second wave of infection, but even then, I don’t think we will ever return to a full lockdown in England, now that the government has proved itself incapable – and unwilling – to maintain one. I simply felt the need to put in writing that feeling of dislocation that many of us feel, so that if there comes a point in the future when I am asked why we didn’t try to do more to protect people from deaths that were far from inevitable, I can point them to this and say, well, it was a complicated time, and although there were parties, there was also great unease.

Great unease.

They would not govern! June 23, 2020

This from this week in the IT about the attitudes within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is very revealing.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are sharply divided on what to do if Green Party members reject the proposed coalition government deal between the three parties this week.
Sources in the parties expect a political crisis to arise if the programme for government is not endorsed by Green members this week, with a deadline for renewing the Offences Against the State Act on Tuesday, June 30th, looming.

So far so predictable. But:

Several senior Fine Gael figures, including a number of Cabinet Ministers, told The Irish Times they would not form a government with Fianna Fáil and Independent TDs if the Green Party rejected the programme.

And:

“We can’t put together a government with Independents. It’s this or nothing. People need to understand what our position is,” one Minister said.
Another Minister said they did not believe a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Independent arrangement would result in “a sustainable government”.

But in FF there’s more optimism.

Fianna Fáil sources say the party can form a government supported by or including Independents if the Greens do not endorse the deal, while some party sources also believe Labour can be persuaded to join the process if the Greens reject the proposal.

Is that driven by differing needs? FF knows the polls are abysmal for them. Should there be an election they’re not likely to gain seats. Indeed they might face a catastrophic electoral background in the wake of an election. Hence the driving need to keep on this course, even if the GP navigate away. FG by contrast could face into an election – granted not one immediately, but say some way down the line, with a degree more optimism. But how soon could an election actually be held?

This, though, is odd:

Mr Coveney acknowledged in Sunday night’s Fine Gael event that the 7 per cent reduction in carbon emissions would not be met in “the first few years”, but said the average annual reduction targets would be met over its lifetime. Mr Varadkar said most of these emissions reductions would happen in the second half of the decade.

Why say this if they’re trying to woo the GP. Unless they’re not.

A threat or a promise? June 23, 2020

Trying to work out which the following is:

More than 40 years after a referendum was passed to extend Seanad voting rights to graduates of all third level institutions, legislation to finally give effect to the result could be among the first Bills debated if a new government is formed.

A New Podcast June 22, 2020

Should you be stuck for listening…. I’ve started a Podcast (will be up on Spotify too later) looking at “The Others” in Irish Electoral Politics.
This week , complete with new microphone, A brief look at two small parties. The Blindmans Party that stood in June 1927 and Cine Gael that stood in 1954
Feedback more than welcome.
Episodes in planning include, The Waterford Peoples Party, The Christian Principles Party, Young Ireland, Irish Haemophilia Society candidates , The Natural Law Party, CPI (ML), Socialist Labour Party, Aontacht Éireann, The Community Party and more…..
Needless to say most episodes will be longer than this.
Alan Kinsella · “The Others” The Alan Kinsella Podcast -Episode 2 -The Blindmens Party and Cine Gael

Rotating taoiseach June 22, 2020

Thought this on RTÉ was a slightly curious framing of the now imminent arrival of an administration here to be led by an – ahem – rotating series of Taoiseach’s. Fiachra Ó Cionnaith rightly points to the innovative aspects of this, and notes that the offer was made to FF in 2016 by Enda at which point but one election away from being defeated, as he was in 2011, Micheál Martin was a lot less positive about the idea. But two elections away is a different matter entirely and this time he was a lot more open to it.

If a government is formed in the coming week, Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar have agreed to share the taoiseach role as they will be the leaders of the two largest parties in the coalition, with 37 and 35 seats compared to Eamon Ryan’s 12 seat Green Party haul.

…

He will continue in the position until 15 December 2022, just after the centenary of the Irish Free State’s foundation, while Mr Varadkar will take up an increased tánaiste role which will see him given a specific office and greater say on economic matters.

..

When the first two and a half years of the government’s at most five year term ends, the roles will be reversed.

How will FF feel about being subsidiary to FG for that last two years? A lot on trust in all this, but what can they do?

Oddly Ó Cionnaith points to the Blair/Brown ‘deal’ as a precursor. He writes:

…we don’t have to look far from Irish shores to see the clearest example of what can occur when those difficulties veer into view if handover gentleman’s agreements go wrong.

And:

Mr Blair would be allowed to seek the leadership uncontested, and if he became prime minister in 1997 would only serve two terms before handing the reigns of power over to his colleague Mr Brown.

The smiling Mr Blair agreed to the deal.

Only, once the first stage was over, he had a sudden change of heart, with Mr Brown being left frustrated and blocked from real power when his prime minister decided he would much rather not step aside, if you don’t mind, in 2005.

While Mr Blair eventually stepped down two years later, in June 2007 – helpfully handing power to his colleague just as a worldwide recession was looming on the horizon – the delay caused bitter acrimony between the pair which has since been immortalised in the political TV drama The Deal.

I’m not sure that is exactly the same thing. Both men belonged to the same party. The ‘deal’ as it was wasn’t part of a formal coalition arrangement. And crucially Blair was able to depend upon his party to stay with him throughout (more or less, but more more). In the context of Martin getting cold feat he would face not merely Varadkar (or whoever is leading FG at that point) but also the wrath of FG and like the GP too.

In fairness much of the rest of Ó Cionnaith’s analysis is spot on, not least that:

Should Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael join forces, it will leave at least one of the parties vulnerable to an almost daily attack from Sinn Féin – whose 37 seats from 42 candidates general election haul should not be forgotten – which will have free road as the main opposition party over the term of the next government.

In addition, it will leave Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael further open to the well-worn accusation that civil war politics or not they are – to its detractors at least – two sides of the same party.

One key USP of their political identity, not being the other as it were, will be lost forever. And the opportunity to embrace SF close to them is also lost. I imagine SF is quietly satisfied by this turn of events. Most likely they should be.

Confidence and supply is one thing. Coalition another. I really think that this coalition deal, if it should come to pass, will inflict enormous collateral damage on the two largest parties.

Notes on the Front: “A Seedy Little Tax Cut” June 21, 2020

Michael Taft, who writes the Notes on the Front blog, has read the Programme for Government. I heartily recommend his post on a proposal in it.

A Seedy Little Tax Cut

It is not the biggest issue in the Programme for Government (PfG). But sometimes small proposals can speak volumes. So what are we to make of the following commitment in the PfG?

The 3% USC surcharge applied to self-employed income is unfair and proposals will be considered to ameliorate this over time as resources allow.

Reading though the lengthy document one might miss this or fail to grasp exactly what it entails. After all, the 3 percent USC surcharge is not the subject of much political discussion – indeed, none at all. Most would not be aware of it. It is a minor tax. But it’s one that is paid exclusively by the highest income earners in the economy – a 3 percent surcharge on self-employed income in excess of €100,000.

The rest of his post is here on his site.

1979 Local Elections Results June 21, 2020

Thought this might be of interest, its the book of the 1979 Local Election Results in pdf format. (It’s massive so takes a while to download)
First thing that struck me looking at it was the geographical spread of The Workers’ Party (SFWP). The lack of party choice in some areas with just FF or FG to choose from.
https://ptfs-oireachtas.s3.amazonaws.com/DriveH/AWData/Library3/Library2/DL015721.pdf

New poll June 21, 2020

https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2020/06/17/what-you-want-to-say-17-june-2020/#comment-771159

As noted in comments by roddy:

FG34 SF27 FF13 GRN8 LAB4 SD3 SOL/PBP2 IND10

Todays @ireland_thinks poll shows the post #GE2020 trends consolidating

Read the full detail in today’s… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…—
Eoin Ó Broin (@EOBroin) June 21, 2020

Independents up 4%, GP up 2%, no change for SF and FG and FF slightly down. All others as it was.

Statements in the media… good, bad and indifferent… June 21, 2020

A moment of sanity in the rush to ‘reopen’.

…Sinn Féin health spokeswoman Louise O’Reilly said women had contacted her to express dismay that “there seems to be very much a concerted national effort to reopen tourism and hospitality, but that there isn’t the same emphasis on reopening and re-starting screening programmes” for cancer.

An unintentionally telling comment by an FFer as quoted in a Diarmuid Ferriter column:

On Tuesday, Jennifer Barry, the vice-chair of Fianna Fáil in Dublin South, expressed her sorrow at the prospect of sharing government with Fine Gael and the Green Party on the grounds that “Fianna Fáil brings a really important value and contribution to Irish politics. It’s the party of the working people, the party of the builders and the farmers. Where are their voices being heard?”

The builders – eh?

Meanwhile, putting a brave face on matters:

For Micheál Martin the conundrum is the opposite. He will finally achieve his ambition of becoming taoiseach but at a time when his party is sinking in the polls and the man he is replacing has managed to generate a record level of public trust. Establishing his authority as taoiseach will be his first priority and that will not be easy given the scale of the task ahead.

‘Sinking in the polls’ is perhaps as kind a way to put it as is humanly possible. Some authority.

Meanwhile, last week a commentator in the IT was breezily demanding that we ‘reopen’ the economy and ignore those in the medical establishment who warn about second waves, and that if any such waves occur the government shouldn’t and ‘won’t rush to lock down the country again if they emerge’. One could ask where the safety of workers was in all this. But apparently if ‘the easing of restrictions may have resulted in some more people catching the virus here’ that’s a price worth paying. This week though… the Green Party is apparently in thrall to…

Degrowthers breezily pretend that their vision is some gentle, managed Utopian process of greening that won’t harm anyone’s health or hurt workers.

Then again there’s also this gem:

I am not a climate scientist and so I don’t know enough to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy that says Earth is on a short route to total environmental disaster due to economic excess.

It doesn’t take a climate scientist to be able to read into this subject. And someone who is paid as part of their job to write columns on issues and then writes on this one perhaps should make it their business to read into it.