Ireland & Iceland

So this must be what that joke was about two years ago. You know the one - What's the difference between Iceland and Ireland? One letter and about six months.

I'm presuming a meteorologist, forecasting the cold weather snap that is currently affecting Ireland, was responsible.

There may be other similarities between the two countries, but they escape me at the moment...

The actual future for Ireland

All joking aside, this country is going to hell in a hand-basket. The Fianna Fáil led governments of the past thirteen years have bankrupt the Irish state and bankrupt the Irish people.

Despite having been left an economy in surplus by the Fine Gael/Labour/Democratic Left coalition in 1997, the low tax, high spending "when we have it we'll spend it" attitude of Charlie McCreevy (who is laughing all his way to the bank with €173,000 per annum in pensions alone) and successive ministers for finance has left the country in hock to foreign masters for generations to come.

As if decimating the country over their time in power for thirteen years wasn't bad enough, this government of halfwits has insisted on leading negotiating with the IMF rather than leaving it to someone more able and better qualified like Ruairi Quinn, Joan Burton, Michael Noonan or Richard Bruton.

Or bobo the fucking monkey.

Most of us can't quite understand what an €85 billion loan from the IMF means. Eighty five thousand million is not the sort of amount that the average Paddy, Biddy or Mick will ever encounter in their day to day lives. But there are a few important thing to remember.

This money is not being borrowed for investment or urgent spending for the Irish taxpayer - it's being borrowed to shore up the delinquent Irish Banks who borrowed recklessly, lent recklessly and were completely unregulated by the regulator, the Department of Finance or successive Fianna Fáil Ministers for Finance for the past Decade.

According to Simon Johnson, former Chief Economist at the IMF, who I interviewed two weeks ago for the Sunday Independent, our banking crisis was caused "primarily through the failure of bank regulation and the excessive risk taking that your big banks were allowed to take."

Not a global economic crisis, not Lehman Brothers, not Bear Stearns. The Irish banks; the Irish regulator; this Irish government.

RTE has just reported that the shaved apes that we have negotiating with the IMF have agreed to an interest rate of 6.7%. Not the 5% that has been widely speculated on, not the 5.2% that the Greeks got. What does this mean in real terms?

Twenty cent of every euro of tax you pay for the next decade will go direct to the IMF for the interest alone. That's not a cent paid off the principal €85 billion, that's just the interest.

This loan is the biggest per capita bailout of any sovereign state in the history of civilisation. In real terms it's bigger than the combined loans to South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

The only bailout bigger than this one was the Greek bailout of €110 billion, but of course Greece is a nation of 11 million people. And as we mentioned already, they are paying 5.2% interest.

Even if we end up paying a lower interest rate, we are borrowing far more than we can afford to ever repay. This country is truly fucked, and we have Fianna Fáil to blame for it. They failed to regulate, they failed to govern, they failed to lead and the whole time they told the Irish people that everything was fine.

More shame on the poor idiots who believed them and voted for them for the past 13 years. After all that has happened, the fact that almost 20% of the first preference votes went to Fianna Fáil in the Donegal South-West by-election is gobsmacking.

But I suppose we have to bear in mind that about the same percentage of people in the US still believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim, so we don't have a monopoly on idiocy.

This country is wrecked and we don't have any foreign bogeymen to blame this time around - we let our own countrymen (and they are mostly men) fuck this country while we sat back and watched.

We need some government politicians heads on poles outside Leinster House before they start to realise that they are our servants and not the other way around.

An alternative future for Ireland

It’s been a tough few months for Ireland Inc. Our economy has imploded, our banking sector has decimated the state and Brian Cowen was last seen ranting and raving in a bunker below government buildings that “it’s all the fault of the traitorous opposition.”

The rumours that Department of Finance officials have ordered a copy of “IMF bailouts for Dummies” on behalf of the Minister Lenihan have been denied, but not as vehemently as one would have hoped for. To say that the man can't count would be like saying that Brian Cowen is a glowing picture of
health.

It’s become clear that the scale of the problem is not one that can be fixed merely with prudent economic management, a return to normal levels of taxation and slashing spending. Frankly, we are well past that point.

An EU/IMF bailout now seems like an inevitbility but The State of the Nation has learned that at a late night brainstorming meeting by the financial wizards in the Department of Finance, a radical new plan is being thrashed out that could save Ireland from complete international humiliation.

So what’s it going to be? Take the public finances to Las Vegas and bet it all on black? Unfortunately Minister Lenihan’s preferred option is a non-runner. Las Vegas, for decades run by a shadowy, cliquish, group of poorly educated gangsters in ill-fitting suits, has seen an economic implosion second only to Ireland’s.

Las Vegas's troubles are in no small part due to unsustainably low levels of taxation, politicians that emphasised extreme free-market capitalism and an over reliance on property tax and the gambling industry for the public finances. A situation which sounds oddly familiar...

But help is at hand. It’s believed that senior Cabinet members are in the process of negotiating a complex and highly controversial deal which would bring Ireland’s economy back to the dizzying heights of the Celtic Tiger in one fell swoop, albeit at a price.

The traditional budget announcement in December is to be replaced by a proposal that we lease the entire Irish state to the Chinese government for 100 years and re-name the country “Hong Kong West.”

No doubt there will be consternation at the proposal, especially among the staunch Republicans on the government benches who have driven the country to the brink of oblivion, but there are few alternatives left to consider.

Due to the government’s inability to regulate the Irish banking system and unwillingness to face down the bond holders, Irish taxpayers are now liable for the €10’s of billions of bad debt that the property-happy banks have on their balance sheets.

Nor is the plan as far-fetched as it may seem. China is the only country in the world which is able to take on Ireland’s government debt and bad banks without blinking and have been looking for an ‘in’ in Western Europe for the last five years.

Previous attempts to buy the Canary Islands from the Spanish stalled mostly due to geographic considerations, as the islands were deemed too far from continental Europe for China’s planned financial hub.

The benefits for the Irish people are obvious: government debt would be immediately cleared and our banks, replete with new Chinese boards of directors who are able to both add and read a balance sheet, would be re-capitalised.

Ireland would become the hub for China’s burgeoning financial services industry and with the island ideally situated between the New York and major European stock exchanges, the long term plan would be to relocate the Shanghai exchange to “Shanghai-West”, the proposed new name for Dublin.

Human rights worries should not be a particular hindrance to a deal; the Chinese government is already used to the concept of a “One Nation, Two System” model, since they took over Hong Kong in 1997.

In any case, Ireland has essentially been a one and a half party state for most of the history of the state and the move to a one party system would not be much of a shock for most of the electorate.

Like Hong Kong, Ireland would retain its own parliament and a certain degree of local autonomy, in much the same way that Ireland did when it joined the EC in 1973 but with some concessions.

The Chinese government would naturally take charge of all foreign affairs responsibilities but would otherwise take a policy of “Positive Non-Interventionism” in the country, as they have in Hong Kong. Irish citizens would now carry Chinese passports when travelling abroad, which are far less likely to be forged by Mossad.

Instead of Irish and English being the official languages of government, it would now be Cantonese and English. As in Hong Kong, most people would continue to speak English and the Irish would no doubt ignore Cantonese with the same aplomb as they have managed with Irish for the last 100 years.

So what are the drawbacks from an Irish perspective? Frankly it’s hard to think of any. Irish businesses would have unfettered access to the world’s largest growth market and the tourism industry would see an instant boost from a nation of one billion people with new money to burn.

Ireland would immediately return to the dizzying heights of the boom years, and more, with a genuine ‘Tiger’ economy that won’t deflate at the first sign of turbulence.

After 100 years we could regain complete control of our own affairs should we so choose, with a much stronger economic base than we currently enjoy. Given the situation we have bene led to by the most craven government in Ireland's history, we can’t dismiss the plan out of hand.

After all, who better to think their way out of this pretty pickle than the bright minds that led us to this point? Let’s just hope Granny can learn how to use the chopsticks...

The Hangover

It's been a heady few weeks in politics, with more revelations about politicians and their drinking habits than there has been in a long while.

It all kicked off when former the British Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted in his autobiography that “alcohol had become somewhat of a prop” while he served as Prime Minister, shocking sections of the British press, not least when they compared his apparent problem with their own drinking habits.

But the less said about the drinking habits of journalists the better; we’re here to talk about politicians.

Then last week Sha Zukang, China’s top diplomat at the UN got a little the worse for wear at an official dinner and rather undiplomatically told everyone what he thought of them (not a lot, apparently.)

After informing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon that “I never really liked you” he went on to lambaste another official Bob Orr. "I don't really like him," Sha said "He's an American, and I really don't like Americans." If the mortification doesn’t cause Sha to kick the bottle once and for all, I don’t know what will.

But over the past few days it’s been Brian Cowen’s performance on Morning Ireland that hit the headlines around the English speaking world, perhaps a little unfairly.

While he did sound a little dazed, confused and incoherent on RTE, and while he refused to give a straight answer to most of Cathal MacCoille’s questions, it’s unfair to say that this is anything out of ordinary for the Taoiseach.

Having read the transcript of what the Taoiseach actually said, most people would agree that it was no less substantive than anything he has produced in public for a number of years now.

Whatever the facts of the matter however, within hours the websites of major news organisations from London to New York carried versions of the story, in a prime example of journalistic Chinese whispers.

The typically hysteria-prone Fox News website read: “Ireland’s embattled prime minister denies being drunk, hung over; opposition demands election.” As anyone in Ireland could have told the good people at Fox, their headline was hardly news - after all, aren’t the opposition always demanding an election?

The Taoiseach’s supporters argue that he was merely suffering from a respiratory problem when he appeared on the radio, and members of the press who were in the Hotel bar with him the night before say that while he did stay up until well after 3am, the Taoiseach was far from drunk.

While “hoarse and nasally congested” hasn’t yet replaced “tired and emotional” as the phrase de jour for being 'a bit the worse for wear', it has as much potential for infamy as Charles Haughey’s GUBU speech.

Leaving questions of Mr Cowen’s sobriety aside for a minute, there does seem to be a link between high political office and alcohol abuse. As they lead highly pressurised lives it’s unsurprising that there is a long history of world leaders and Prime Ministers in particular who have had an over-reliance on alcohol, some with extremely unfortunate results for their parties and their countries.

In 1984 the then Prime Minister of New Zealand Robert Muldoon famously called for a snap election while visibly drunk on national television. When a journalist noted that it didn’t give him much time to prepare for an election Muldoon slurred “Well it doesn’t give my opponents much time in the run up to an election, does it?”

Unfortunately for him, it was time enough. The opposition Labour party’s preparations worked and Muldoon’s National Party was out of government for over a decade.

While it wasn’t Muldoon’s finest moment, nor was it his biggest mistake. Almost ten years previously, when Minister for Finance, Muldoon disbanded a contentious savings scheme set up by the Labour Party in order to win the 1975 election.

According to one financial analyst “There is little doubt the abolition of the Superannuation Scheme was our worst economic decision over the past 40 years.”

One of Australia’s longest serving Prime Minister’s Bob Hawke had better fortunes as a result of his drunken shenanigans - while a Rhodes Scholar to Oxford in 1955 he downed a yard of ale in 11 seconds and was subsequently included in the Guinness Book of Records.

In his memoirs Hawke recalled "This feat was to endear me to some of my fellow Australians more than anything else I ever achieved."

However Hawke reportedly gave up alcohol before he reached the Zenith of Australian politics and he served as Prime Minister of Australia between 1983 and 1992.

Sir John A. MacDonald was Canada’s first Prime Minister and served three terms. An able politician, it’s believed the protracted illness and subsequent death of his first wife Isabella triggered his alcoholic binging. MacDonald’s nickname was “Old Tomorrow” for his habit of putting off any tough decisions until it was politically expedient for him to make them.

During one election debate he was so drunk that he vomited while on stage. When his opponent asked the gathered masses whether or not they wanted a drunk leading the country, MacDonald is reported to have replied "I get sick ... not because of drink [but because] I am forced to listen to the ranting of my honourable opponent."

Another version has MacDonald replying that "The people of Canada would rather have John A. drunk than his opponents sober." Whether or not these responses were imagined up after the fact by early political handlers is unclear.

Political leaders in America are no less prone to the demon drink as the transcripts of a conversation in the White House between Henry Kissinger and another adviser during the Nixon administration reveal.

When asked if the President could take a call from 10 Downing Street to discuss the Arab-Israeli War of 1973, a situation of not inconsiderable importance, Kissinger responded; “Can we tell them no? When I talked to the President he was loaded.”

So what do these three Prime Ministers and one President have in common with our own Taoiseach? All were political leaders of former British colonies when they succumbed to the temptations of intemperance.

If the self-styled ‘Republican Party’ has political spin-doctors of any worth they will exploit the link, persuade Mr Cowen to admit to a problem whether he has one or not and help the electorate join the dots. ‘It’s not my fault’ the script will read, ‘the British made me do it.’

After all, just like the case of the Irish economy, why admit to a problem when you can blame it on someone else?

'A little lively'

The big day has arrived for the Fine Gael parliamentary party and by the end of the day we'll know... well, at least a little more.

Will Fine Gael split in 'Official' and 'Provisional' sections? Will Kenny take Bruton's head and by extension his power, making him an unstoppable force in Irish politics? Will Bruton triumph and be hailed by the good people of Ireland as our next Taoiseach? Will his children form a family band and tour the nation? But I digress.

While they're on tenterhooks, I thought that the rest of us could use some light relief while the main party of opposition implodes. After all, when you've been ruled by the most venal, corrupt and shambolic party in Irish politics for 20 of the last 23 years and they've sabotagued our societey and our economy, what you really want, nay need, is the main opposition party destroying itself from within.

And so I come to the 'light relief'. A colleague was contacting a member of the FG front bench via email for an article early last week and things were progressing nicely until communication dried up unexpectedly. He sent another mail and got no reply until he received this on Monday;

Dear -----,

------ has asked me to contact you, -- received your questions and will endeavour to draft a reply this week but as you can appreciate things are a little lively in Fine Gael at the moment.

Kind Regards,

-----

A little lively? I'm glad the good people in Fine Gael are keeping their perspective through this troubled time! Let's hope it all remains as light hearted whatever happens today.

There can be only one

Say what you like about Fine Gael, but they're nothing if not entertaining. Miriam O'Callaghan just described the events of the last few days as "mind-boggling shenanigans" and you'd be hard pressed to disagree with her.

Where do Fine Gael go from here? It's clear that Enda and Richard are no longer a viable double act. If Enda Kenny pulls off what now seems like a shock win on Thursday, the party will be irreparably damaged. If Bruton wins out, the party will be irreparably damaged. It's lose-lose for Fine Gael right now and they have only themselves to blame.

Having watched Richard Bruton's shaky performance on both The Front Line and Tonight with Vincent Browne, I'm not convinced he could do any better than Kenny. He stuttered, he stammered and he looked incredibly uneasy. The coup, while seemingly long thought about, was pushed through at the right wrong time and with a seemingly unwilling mob leader.

Fine Gael's history is one of coups against leaders and panicking when times get tough. It's why Fianna Fáil has had such an easy ride for far too long. FG's self-destruction and inability to organise themselves (until Kenny came along in 2002) is a major factor for our near one-party state.

On a side note, you don't see Labour getting involved in unseemly leadership coups. As a friend who is an exasperated Fine Gael member said to me earlier today "you don't see those crazy commies stabbing each other in the back." A little over the top I thought, but the sentiment was accurate. Labour and Eamon Gilmore are looking more and more suitable to lead the country in the net coalition.

So what now for Fine Gael? Perhaps they should battle it out to the death with samurai swords, beheading each other until there is only one left. I'm not sure where I got the idea from, but I think it's the best thing for the party right now. They're clearly not fit for much else.