German Greens continue to advance

The results of the important Baden-Württemberg election are rocking Germany. In an area that has been Tory (CDU) since the fifties we are due to see their historic first Green President as a Green/SPD coalition rolls into power.

The Greens were the only party (bar the Pirates who hadn't stood before) to increase their vote share. Incredibly they doubled their vote to just under a full quarter of those who voted.

This comes as the Greens have been riding high in the polls for a while - what this spells out for the next general election though it is far too early to tell.

Party	Vote %	Change	Seats	Change
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	39	-5.2	60	-9
The Greens	24.2	12.5	36	19
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	23.1	-2.1	35	-3
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	5.3	-5.4	7	-8
Die Linke	2.8	-0.3
Pirate Party	2.1	2.1
The Republicans	1.1	-1.4
All Others	2.4

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Police attack environmental protesters in Stuttgart

On Thursday police in Stuttgart attacked demonstrators protesting about construction that they claim would cause massive environmental damage in the area. There have been a number of large protests over this in recent weeks, but this is the first to have been so heavily attacked.


Protesters were gassed, beaten and sprayed by water cannons which left, according to Taz, literally hundreds wounded. Britta Haßelmann, a Parliamentary spokesperson for the Greens condemned the attacks warning that the police actions had dangerously escalated the situation.

Dagmar Enkelmann, for the Left Party, said that after the images of so many wounded had come out that we could not continue "with business as usual". The SPD (Labour) spokesperson made a rather strange comment that I'm finding difficult to interpret where he said he felt sorry for the police, although condemned their "Rambo-politics".

Germany is currently being rocked by large scale environmental protests including over proposals to extend the use of nuclear power as well as issues like that of the 'Stuttgart 21' construction.

Pictures from Indymedia

German Greens Still Rising

According to polls the German Greens, who already have the most MPs they've ever had, are seeing an unprecedented rise in the polls seeing them neck and neck for the first time with the SPD, the German version of the Labour Party.

The current ruling Tory/Liberal Coalition (CDU and FDP on the graph) is polling at 34% to the SPD/Green 48%, or 58% if you include the Left Party. So what's to account for the rise which, like in Sweden, does not seem to have effected other parties to the left of the centre?

One explanation is that the new right-wing coalition's decision to extend the life of existing nuclear power stations has hit a nerve in a nation that has had a vibrant anti-nuclear movement for many decades.

Fresh politics

Others point to a fresh way of doing politics - they have the first Turkish (joint) leader of a political party and they have refused to get bogged down as an alternative to the Left Party, having been willing to deal with the parties of the right when it suits them. That's certainly not to my taste, but it's quite possible that this has allowed them to eat into the CDU's vote as well as the SPD's.

Ironically the CDU's backing for nuclear power has put a stop the potential deals between the Greens and the right so they're getting the best of both worlds - looking open minded and willing to work with anyone, whilst the right has cut itself out of the picture.

In other good news the liberal FDP is languishing at 5% as all these right wing liberal parties should be. This is a third of where they were a year ago and rightly so. I mean really what's the point of them when you might as well vote for the CDU or Tories and get honest conservatives?

A movement in the streets

Another theory is that with hundreds of thousands out on the street mobilised for an issue that the Greens claimed as their own years ago that surge of anti-government protest has fortuitously fallen in the lap of the Greens. Certainly Speigel think this might cause as many problems for the Greens as it offers opportunities as the party is no longer simply a party of protest.

Their experience of the SPD in a previous coalition was not entirely happy and many of the their activists in the east of Germany cut their teeth fighting the regime supported by leading figures in the Left Party. Coupled with the Left's own (shock!) internal problems and inability to mobilise properly for the recent protests they are not looking like particularly appetising bedfellows right now.

Some in the Green Party would certainly like to keep their options open about deals with the partiesto their right. But, if those parties are in charge of the nuclear programme that becomes impossible.

Who knows whether this will last or becomes a deeper long-term trend but it is becoming clearer that across Europe the centre simply is not holding, but there are no guarantees that the ground shifts towards the traditional far-right or far-left parties.

Coalition wobbles?

Perhaps there's trouble in paradise? A liberal and conservative party starting up a marriage of convenience and yet under the strain of a tough economic climate they've started to bicker and stopped talking to each other over breakfast.

One partner wants a laissez faire partnership where the market is free to screw who it likes, the other wants a more traditional arrangement where frugality and responsibility with the public purse is the order of the day. On the face of it they agree in cuts and budget constraints but the tensions beneath the surface start to break out with a harsh word here and an off message briefing there.

The ink is hardly dry on the German coalition government's agreements and already there have been huffy resignations, bad news at the polls and talk of early elections to sort this mess out once and for all.

The German economy may still be one of the most robust in the EU, but it is no longer in a position to simply bail out other economies or fulfill its traditional duties of Europe's banker. This is causing international tensions as well as internal ones with France's Sarkozy making pointed remarks about Merkel's government.

The left has smelt blood and is pushing the coalition to take the plunge and call a new general election. It's certainly not an option either partner would take willingly as it would be seen as a major defeat, but if the working relationship between the parties and, crucially, within them has broken down to such an extent that they can no longer run a viable government then there may well be no choice.

It couldn't happen here though. The Lib Dems and Tories have found a very comfortable working relationship with each other and have, possibly to their own surprise, found each other more than natural allies in government, particularly when the Lib Dems are such accommodating partners. No early election for us I reckon.

Oh to be in Germany

I've always thought the Germans were sensible folk. You wont have ever seen me criticise any German person or organisation such is the high esteem I have for each and every one of them. Possibly.

Anyway I've noticed another excellent example of their general superiority to the Brits. Rich Germans have launched a petition demanding the right-wing government impose higher taxes on them.

These bloated capitalists "say they have more money than they need, and the extra revenue could fund economic and social programmes to aid Germany's economic recovery. Germany could raise 100bn euros (£91bn) if the richest people paid a 5% wealth tax for two years."

They are asking the government to impose this special fat cat tax on the richest 2.2 million Germans because "The path out of the crisis must be paved with massive investment in ecology, education and social justice".

They recognise that this can only be achieved through taxation rather than giving to charity and so their appeal for direct taxation on their wealth, in order to protect the most vulnerable and the environment, is both far sighted and laudable.

Will Richard Branson, the Queen or Lord Sainsbury demand that they be forced to cough up? I've decided not to hold my breath.

For God's sake Germany, what at are you thinking?

Alright I'm annoyed now, the bloody German Greens are mucking about. In Saarland, a German region of over a million people, there have been crucial coalition negotiations taking place between all five Parliamentary parties.

Due to the close nature of the vote the Greens, who got just less than 6% regionally and have just three representatives on the state Parliament, had become the power brokers deciding whether there would be a left-wing SPD / Die Linke / Green coalition or a right-wing CDU / FDP / Green block (pictured) to rule the area. A choice between what was called the red, red, green option or the Jamaican coalition (after the colours of the parties).

Oskar Lafontaine even stood down as national party leader of Die Linke and from national Parliament a few days ago in order to pay more specific attention to the area. This surprise move was greeted by Greens as more of a hindrance than a help and it's clear there is some personal animosity between the Greens and Lafontaine who was a government minister during the SPD/Green national coalition a few year ago. Green regional leader Hubert Ulrich said of the man and his party "I don't trust this man or this party at all".

The Green Party voted today by 117 to 32 to enter the right-wing coalition where they will take the education and environment ministries. I will go on record here and now that this is a really stupid decision which I suspect the party will come to regret at a national level if not a local one. It's not as stupid as the equivalent Irish decision, where they linked themselves to a corrupt and tarnished right-wing government, but it's still short term thinking and, frankly, distasteful.

I understand why they might be hesitant to form the 'red-red-green' coalition as they are suspicious of Die Linke's connections with the old regime in the East, which are not inconsiderable. Add to this the fact that the SPD is a failing organisation that is hemorrhaging support and a left coalition does not look that tasty.

To my mind refusing the one does not mean embracing the other. It's one thing to say you don't want to work with a mash up between New Labour and the apparatchiks of a dead Stalinist state but since when were the Tories and a neo-con version of the Liberals a better alternative?

Haven't they heard of Scotland? Make them work for your support but don't get married to the buggers. A couple of government posts will never make up for the fact that you'll be dancing to their tune, not the other way round.

Europe votes: good news and bad

Yesterday saw the German and Portuguese General Elections, elections which have both good and bad news for us lefty greens. First the bad news. Labour's sister parties have been elbowed out of position in both countries leaving the right with a much stronger hand.

In Portugal the ruling Socialist Party lost their Parliamentary majority going from 45% to 36.6% of the vote. Although still the largest of the parties their support was eroded by both the left and the right - leaving the right stronger over all.

The FT believes that the SP will not try to form a coalition but rather, under the watchful eye of their Conservative President, will try to run a minority government with a program agreed by the two right-wing parties (the PSD and CDS/PP).

As you can see from the figures the PS lost its vote share in almost equal proportion to the right and left, with the hard left coalition Left Bloc (BE) making the largest gains. The Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU), a coalition of the Greens and the Communist Party, also increased their Parliamentary representation, although not in as spectacular fashion.

Party	Votes	%	Change	Seats
Socialist Party (PS)	2,068,665	36.56	-8.4	96
Social Democratic Party (PSD)	1,646,097	29.09	+0.3	78
People's Party (CDS/PP)	592,064	10.46	+3.2	21
Left Bloc (BE)	557,109	9.85	+3.4	16
Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU)	446,174	7.88	+0.3	15

In Germany it seems the Grand Coalition of center left and right parties is at an end. While Merkel's Christian Democrats did not increase their vote share they did increase their seats and certainly are the beneficiaries of the collapse of the Social Democrat vote, a vote that has been distributed among the far right, far left and Greens.

The Social Democrats lost a wapping great third of their seats and aside from the right-liberal Bavarian Party was the only party to lose seats last night. you can see from the numbers that the right neo-liberal Free Democratic Party was by far the biggest winner but the The Left and The Greens also made substantial increases.

	Total seats	+/-
Christian Democratic Union	194	+14
Christian Social Union of Bavaria	45	-1
Social Democratic Party	146	-76
Free Democratic Party	93	+32
The Left	76	+22
The Greens	68	+17

Which makes the German Parliament look like this;

Being an electoral geek it's also worth looking at how those seats were won. In Germany they have a dual system of constituency votes and party lists that use PR to top up. It's actually a very useful way of seeing at a glance how a PR system alters the way that people vote and, I think, the results show how the big parties of government in this country rely on first Past the Post to bolster their own declining vote.

I'll explain using numbers. Here are the results for the top parties (and the Pirate Party) in both list and constituency votes.

	Constituency
	Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-
Christian Democratic Union	13,852,743	32	-0.6	173	+67
Christian Social Union of Bavaria	3,190,950	7.4	-0.9	45	+1
Social Democratic Party	12,077,437	27.9	-10.5	64	-81
Free Democratic Party	4,075,115	9.4	+4.7	0	-
The Left	4,790,007	11.1	+3.1	16	+13
The Greens	3,974,803	9.2	+3.8	1	-
German Pirate Party	46,750	0.1	+0.1	0	-
	Party List
	Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-
Christian Democratic Union	11,824,794	27.3	-0.5	21	-53
Christian Social Union of Bavaria	2,830,210	6.5	-0.9	0	-2
Social Democratic Party	9,988,843	23	-11.2	82	+5
Free Democratic Party	6,313,023	14.6	+4.8	93	+32
The Left	5,153,884	11.9	+3.2	60	+9
The Greens	4,641,197	10.7	+2.6	67	+17
German Pirate Party	845,904	2	+2	0	-

The three parties of government uniformly got better results in the constituency poll than the list system. Two million people (which is a lot) voted for the CDU in their local first past the post constituency who voted for someone else in the PR lists, possibly the FDU although that's an informed guess.

The reason why I included the Pirate Party is that here you can see a small party with a bit of support who people did vote for when it was PR but who were not remotely tempted when it came to candidates for unwinnable First Past the Post seats. A full on 18 times as many people voted for the Pirates under the Proportional Representation system than for them in the constituency votes. In Germany you might shrug your shoulders and say, well they can get seats through the top up list, here in the UK there's no such mechanism which means that minority parties have their small vote diminished even further simply through the voting system we use.


So you can see from this chart that, basically, a load of people voting for the centre right vote for the more minor right-wing libertarians of the FDP when their vote has more chance of making an impact and a large portion of voters who vote for the SPD in the constituencies where only the big players might win then vote for the Left, the Greens and, ahem, the Pirates when their vote has more chance of influencing the outcome.

Geekery aside the Greens have done very well to get more than four and a half million votes and likewise for the Left to get more than five million votes shows, just like in Portugal, that there are alternatives to the failed Labour-style parties so they better buck up their ideas, but as yet that mileau is not winning votes from the right and without doing that they can't move society to the left, just move the left to the left.

NB I'd like to recommend Tina Becker on Die Linke which I thought was particularly interesting.

The embers of the Reichstag Fire

I'm surprised more blogs haven't picked up on the news that Marinus van der Lubbe, the man executed by the Nazis for the 1933 Reichstag fire, has been pardoned seventy five years after the event.

One of the things I find interesting about the whole incident is that many people seem to misunderstand what actually happened. Reichstag fire is almost a by-word in some quarters for a government staging an attack against itself in order to justify cracking down on political opponents.

Anyone involved in the anti-war movement in the last ten years will have heard the term used in this way (even by the excellent David Rovics), in particular in reference to 9/11 where some activists continue to insist that this was an outrage committed by the Bush government in order to help precipitate a war without end.

The facts of the Reichstag fire are slightly less difficult to unpick than an underhand conspiracy pinned on an innocent man. No serious historian doubts that der Lubbe was involved in setting fire to the Reichstag building nor that he was a revolutionary leftist, admittedly one more influenced by anarchism than the dominant Stalinist ideas of the day. There is debate as to whether he acted alone (which seems unlikely but remains unproved one way or the other) but not whether he was sincere in his opposition to fascism.

The events of that night, coming less than a month after Hitler had been appointed Chancellor by the then President Hindenburg, were used to justify the banning of the Communist Party (a serious anti-Nazi force, filled with workers and the unemployed), the arrest of political opponents (including some SPD and KPD Parliamentarians), the elimination of "subversive" publications, the suspension of civil liberties and, importantly, new elections.

These elections, combined with the enabling act, effectively made Hitler the dictator of Germany - a post he held for twelve tragic years. That train of events was undoubtedly set in motion by the Reichstag fire - although the fire did not create the social forces involved. We can debate whether, without the fire, the Nazis could have been stopped but with the benefit of hindsight it's hard to argue that setting the fire was a well thought out act.

If we really have to we can draw the parallel between 9/11 and the Reichstag fire in that they are both instances where terrorist outrages were used to further the aims of the intended targets. Objectively they assisted the aims of the New American Century caucus and the Nazis respectively - but in neither case were the outrages planned or perpetrated by those groups.

We can admire individual acts of heroism if we choose, but if we allow them to become a fetish or a shortcut to achieving our ends we'll always be outnumbered and always outgunned. Der Lubbe believed in the idea of exemplary acts that would spark wider radical conflagration, his increasing frustration with official channels and the rotten politics of the KPD drove him to commit one of the most misguided acts of the century.

The real lessons of the Reichstag fire are that we should not play with matches or we'll all get burned. The social forces that could have stopped the Nazis were the ordinary men and women involved in the SPD, KPD and the unions - only they had the clout to fight the Nazis on the streets, in the workplaces and in Parliament. Only they had the strength to turn the tide of history away from the darkness to come.