Those Scottish Elections: the essay

I know I'm a bit slow with this as I get the blog back on track but I thought I'd give a very quick overview of the Scottish elections. The headline, of course, was the amazing landslide for the Scottish National Party which, for those outside of Scotland, is essentially an alternative social democratic party to Labour, without the baggage of murder and government and at liberty to put political ideas independent of a Westminster agenda.

Whilst that does not mean the SNP is immune from exactly the same neo-liberal and reactionary pressures that Labour is prone to it is able to, for example, oppose trident and nuclear power or propose a tax on supermarkets in a way that Labour seem utterly unable to. Indeed I even voted SNP on the constituency ballot (where the Greens did not stand) in order to help displace the complacent Labour incumbent.

We could go into the SNP's deficiencies at length - but frankly that would be both boring and churlish in the face of their historic victory gaining a majority of seats under a system that was specifically designed to stop them doing just that.

How did they do it? Well, they certainly had a strong well-financed campaign, although I wont go as far as some to call it a work of genius. To a large extent it was achieved through the miserable state of the opposition and the ability to gain real momentum off the back of that. There were few people who voted on the 5th that had any illusion about whether the SNP would be forming the next government or not, but if we look back to January we see the polls were predicting a comfortable Labour victory... that lead was lost by Labour rather than overcome by the SNP.


Labour's campaign

Labour did so badly that they lost key Glasgow seats leaving them in a minority in the city... yes, Labour a minority in GLASGOW. Unthinkable.

Much has been made of the dismal and lacklustre Iain Gray, Labour's Scottish leader. It certainly has little to do with Ed Miliband, as he barely figured in the Scottish campaign, with the entire weight of responsibility placed on the shoulders of a man determined to do an uninspired impression of a sack of potatoes. But frankly Labour chose him so they can't be absolved of responsibility no matter how much their candidates complained of the terrible campaign.

Labour's vision for Scotland seemed to consist of refusing to think about any alternative to cuts and mandatory prison sentences for carrying a knife. I guess that combination of authoritarianism and abandonment of public services is nothing new but in a field where voters actually had an alternative non-Tory party of government it just would not wash.

I was stunned by Labour's refusal to even talk about tackling the cuts in any meaningful way. There wasn't even any hot and meaningless rhetoric, which could have gone down pretty nicely had Labour wanted to win, which I guess they didn't.

There were two turning points of note for me. Way back when Labour had the lead the SNP proposed a 'Tesco tax' on the 1% richest companies in order to offset public sector cuts. It was a good proposal universally opposed by Labour and the Coalition Parties prompting a widespread feeling that Labour et al were simply voting in the interests of their major donors.

The feeling that Labour were in the pockets of the rich was further entrenched by the fact their argument against the Tesco Tax was that this was a 'tax on jobs'. If they wanted to look identical to the Tories they were doing a fine job and I would not have been surprised if they'd come out with the 'trickle down effect' soon after. It was from that week that Labour started to flag in the polls.

The second turning point, which was far less avoidable, was when Iain Gray was confronted by anti-cuts protesters. It's a difficult situation to handle and I have *some* sympathy with Gray over this, but his choice to turn tail and hide in a sandwich shop became an overnight legend which genuinely started to define Labour's campaigning style, run away from anything difficult. People still raise this minor incident today, and it may well become Gray's legacy.

For me more symbolic of Gray's shambolic election was the less known incident from when Alex Salmond was doing a photoshoot in a supermarket, the way you do on the election trail. As the assembled press and journos directed their attention to the big man who should walk in by chance but Iain Gray. He weakly waved and then ambled off to the lavatory. It sums the man's political career up for me.

But herein lies the danger for Labour. They desperately need to do some soul searching and the temptation to blame Miliband for not doing enough or Gray for being rubbish has got to be overwhelming. However I think that would be a mistake. Labour lost because they had nothing to say, not who was delegated to not say it. Be nice to supermarkets, be frightened of independence and give more powers to the police simply did not resonate with the electorate, and why would it? Why not turn to a Scottish party that had been careful to play down any dangerous thoughts on Scottish autonomy.

What about the Tories and Lib Dems?

Whilst the Tories did not have a great night the utter rout of the Lib Dems is the big news. All three Westminster parties saw their leaders resign in the wake of the election result which is probably inevitable but quite what Goldie or Scott were meant to do with the hand life had dealt them God alone knows. At least the Tories ran an honest and clear campaign with a leader who was happy to look the electorate in the eye and tell them 'hard truths', even if I don't think they're true.

Tavish Scott, the leader of the Lib Dems on the other hand seemed utterly flummoxed by the whole thing and given a complete absence of anything useful to say seemed to drift as much as Labour. He tried to distance himself from the national Coalition but without any meaningful policy difference this just looked shifty and dishonest.

The flagship policy of the Scottish Lib Dems was even worse than Labour's lock up those carrying knives. It was opposition to merging Scottish police forces. The majority of the electorate probably didn't even know there wasn't a single Scottish police force, let alone felt particular concerned about whether it was merged. It was totemic of their campaign that they chose as their lead campaigning issue an obscure piece of admin.


The only other significant campaign issue raised from the yellow team was on refinancing the debt of Scottish Water. As the only newsworthy economic issue they raised it was both complicated and reeked of privatisation. However the main problem with it was for a party that justifies drastic cuts in public services on the basis that we're in too much debt suggesting we get into more debt seems just the tiniest bit incoherent and, well, opportunist.

Not for the first time I was left thinking that even Lib Dem members deserve a better leadership than this. My local constituency candidate Alex Cole-Hamilton could not have campaigned harder if he'd hired an army of clones to go door knocking with him. The man was a Stakonovite of historic proportions in a campaign he must have known that he'd be crushed in. I genuinely feel very sorry for the guy. I must be going soft in my dotage.

Alison Johnstone and Patrick Harvie launch the Manifesto

And then there's the Greens

The polls consistently put the Green Party on between six and eight MSPs which always seemed a touch fanciful to me - although I had hoped for an increase. In the end it was not to be, the increase in the Scottish Green Party vote was not enough to see the SGP do more than hold onto their seats (with only the Highlands and Islands seat close to an extra win, being just a few hundred votes away from electing Eleanor Scott).

Personally I think for a small party to get noticed enough and taken seriously enough to maintain their seats whilst all other parties were swept before the tartan steamroller is actually an impressive result. Increasing our vote under these circumstances was a real achievement, but many were understandably disappointed.

With a strong media campaign and good professional approach to the campaign many members felt that this was the best SGP campaign that they could remember, although whether they'd all characterise our message as hard-left as the Scotsman did is debatable.

Certainly the Party focused on raising revenue to protect services and jobs. This gave our candidates something unique to say on hustings and in the press quite distinct from the other parties in Holyrood. It was good that the press focused on our economic policies, showing we were being taken seriously, and to my mind it is this reason that we were able to hold our ground - but in the future we need to ensure we have strong enough ground campaigns to deliver more MSPs in difficult elections as well as when the wind is going in our direction.


The others

The hard-left parties saw no resurgence in their fortunes and are sadly a shadow of their former selves. I saw one SSP candidate describe the idea of a rainbow Parliament at a hustings and to be honest that's what I would like to see, a real diversity of opinion represented (although not at the cost of the Greens, obviously!).

I was pleased that the Scottish Socialist Party polled almost three times higher than the morally bankrupt Solidarity and I hope that means they will be able to play a useful role in Scottish politics in the future. Sadly they did not out poll the Socialist Labour Party, a non-existent party who gain almost all of their votes from people who vote for them by mistake instead of the Scottish Labour Party.

Even though I love him dearly, I was also pleased that George Galloway was a long way off winning a seat in Glasgow. To be honest he doesn't live in Scotland, knows nothing about how Holyrood works, nor does he seem particularly interested in it. He's not qualified and the electorate knew it.


His hyperbolic intervention in the growing football tensions were particular unwelcome I thought and I'd far rather see a more thoughtful socialist like Colin Fox in place as an MSP than a walking megaphone like Galloway.

The far-right continue to be a non-existent force in Scotland and political Christianity, which tends to focus on the hell fire stuff rather than the love one another business, continued to languish at 0.1%. Maybe if they focused on the hugging more than the smiting they might poll a little better, who knows?

When the dust cleared it was clear we are in a new situation with the prospect of independence on the cards and Holyrood's first majority rule. I'm really pleased for Patrick and Alison, our two Green MSPs, and disappointed for those excellent candidates who didn't make it - but elected or no there are still important issues to be campaigning on and I think we're in a good position to do that.

Holyrood two sworn in and official

This morning I attended the swearing in of the two new Green MSPs at Holyrood. The experienced and battle hardened Patrick Harvie (Glasgow, pictured) and the fresh faced and bushy-tailed Alison Johnstone (Lothians). I will admit to *almost* crying but swear to all mighty Jehoshaphat that not one drop of saline solution touched my manly cheek.

LPW has an interesting piece on the role these rituals play in society and comments that one of the most interesting things for him is spotting the embarrassing middle names. For me the high point of the proceedings was when the Proclaimers walked onto the balcony to watch the show. I may have let out the subtlest of squeals of delight. But no one noticed, it's ok.

Marco Biagi, SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central, looked super cool as he took the oath in Italian (the first to do so perhaps?) and the mighty Alex rounded off one session of swearing ins by literally throwing a flower up into the expectant balcony - how's that for a curtain call?

Sadly no one had anything written on the their hands or made any ultra-embarrassing pre-oath remarks although Labour's Neil Findley prefaced his oath with a statement that his loyalty was to the people of Scotland and was taking the formal oath as a legal requirement not a binding pact with the Queen. I rather liked that.

Anyway, it was all very reminiscent of a graduation ceremony with family and friends dressed up to the nines to watch their loved ones receive their little certificate they'd been working for all these years. I'm not generally a fan of these formalised moments, but I was keen to attend today and was glad I did, it feels like a nice rounding off of my Scottish adventure.

Guest Post: How close were the Scottish Greens to more MSPs?

Jeff from Better Nation kindly consented to write a guest post on how close the Greens were in Scotland to getting more MSPs. I think the facts, as presented here, are useful if a little depressing.

My shared home blog Better Nation is regularly pinned as a 'Green blog', something that I am certainly comfortable with and I know that my fellow Editors there were bummed at the lack of a surge in Patrick Harvie's bloc of MSPs, as I was.

As only a member of the GPEW, it's not really my place to say where, if anywhere, the Scottish Greens went wrong in this campaign, they were after all the only party other than the SNP to increase their share of the vote. So, I decided to take a dispassionate look at each of the regions and see where the Greens might have fared better with a few more votes or, perhaps, constituencies falling elsewhere.

CENTRAL (0 Green MSPs)

The SNP took the 7th regional spot here, winning its third list MSP.

The Greens were 6,395 votes away from taking that 7th regional spot and were behind Labour, the Tories, the SNP and even the Senior Citizens Party. Put another way, the Greens were miles off winning a seat in Central and it was never a likely place for a gain.

GLASGOW (1 Green MSP)

I had tipped this to be a potential region where the Greens could have picked up two spots but, alas, it wasn't to be. In what will prove to be something of a theme, it was the SNP who took the 7th spot here, their 3rd regional MSP on top of the 5 FPTP victories. Patrick Harvie took the 3rd ranking spot and the Greens were 3,193 votes away from getting a second, behind both Labour and the SNP but, interestingly, not behind the Lib Dems as the Greens successfully managed to poll more than double the yellows in Glasgow.

Changing the constituency wins between Labour and the SNP doesn't make it more likely for the Greens to get any closer either. Indeed, making Labour win every constituency would mean the SNP would take the first six ranking spots and Patrick would take the seventh.

HIGHLANDS & ISLANDS (0 Green MSPs)

Yes, you guessed it, the SNP took the 7th regional spot here too but the Green candidate, co-convener Eleanor Scott, was a slender 877 votes behind the SNP and 494 votes behind Labour in the race for that 7th spot.

If the SNP had won one of Orkney or Shetland then the Greens would have moved ahead of the SNP in the pecking order by 108 votes. Changing the Labour and SNP constituency seats does not have an impact
as any FPTP win is automatically replaced with another list seat with no impact on the calculations for that 7th spot.

This was as close as the Greens came to getting that 3rd MSP.

LOTHIANS (1 Green MSP)

Edinburgh has always been a happy hunting ground for the Greens and it was unclear to what extent that was a personal vote for Robin Harper. However, Alison Johnstone was returned easily enough this time around
despite the threat of Margo Macdonald hoovering up much of the non-mainstream vote. Alison won her seat in Round 4 of the d'hondt allocations.

The Greens were 5,757 votes away from the Conservatives who took the 7th seat in this region but were also 4,835 votes behind the Lib Dems, 3,356 votes behind Labour and 1,575 votes behind the SNP so they
really weren't getting a look in. The Lib Dems or Conservatives winning a seat here and there might have helped but in truth the SNP and Labour vote share were just too high again with the Greens falling short.

MID SCOTLAND & FIFE (0 Green MSPs)

The SNP took the 7th regional spot here, winning their only regional MSP with it too. The Greens were 2,008 votes away from taking it. Again, changing the constituency wins would have no impact here as
seats won/lost by the SNP are just replaced on the list.


NORTH EAST (0 Green MSPs)

Similar story to MSF, the SNP took their only regional MSP on the 7th allocation. The Greens were 2,388 votes short and were also behind the Tories and Labour in the queue to take an MSP. Very unfortunate to not see Dr Martin Ford at Holyrood.


SOUTH (0 Green MSPs)

The SNP again took the 7th regional spot here and the Greens were 5,627 votes short (from a total number of votes won of 8,656). The Greens were also behind Labour and the Tories in the fight for that seat so were always outsiders to win a seat in this region.

WEST (0 Green MSPs)

Labour finally take a 7th regional spot, pipping the SNP by only 185 votes. The Greens were 4,804 votes short.


So, all in all, depressing reading and it will be a painful review that the Green party will have to embark on in order to understand how a radical alternative manifesto and a collapsing Lib Dem vote did not deliver gains. It is a shame that there is not even any real opportunity of analysis on switching constituency wins to see to what
extent that may have helped the Greens win, they simply didn't have enough votes to be in the hunt.

The simple problem was that the SNP took far too much of the vote.


Under a true PR system, the Greens with their 4.4% national vote share would have been entitled to 6 MSPs, thrice what they have now. But sadly there is effectively a 6.67% de minimis limit as there are typically 16 MSP slots available in each region.

My only advice to the Greens, albeit hollow as they appear to be doing it already, is to be the main line of defence against local decisions that go against the party's ethos. From Aberdeen parks through Edinburgh trams to Glasgow University cuts, the Greens were there but regional strategies to compliment a national strategy is, for me, the way ahead.

One final thought, because I'm nothing if not ornery - Patrick Harvie said he didn't go into Politics to sit in a group of two, and yet that is what he shall be doing for the next five years. Will those words come back to haunt him? I do hope that Patrick continues to value his place in the Parliament even if he doesn't have the numbers he has been wishing for. Scotland needs a strong, vibrant Green party, even if the nation doesn't always realise it at election time!

Election countdown: a random round-up

Just a few interesting bits and bobs from the Scottish elections today.

• A Labour MP has been issuing leaflets saying that the "Tories bite off babies' heads". Possibly a bit too much in the genteel world of Scottish politics. Although Labour had no comment the publisher said "I apologise if it has damaged the Tories' chances of winning a seat in the south of Glasgow". Cheeky beggar.

• Someone highlighted this piece of feminist cultural analysis the smurfette principle about the tokenism of cartoons that have a load of men and one woman who is essentially a servant (Madame Cholet and Smurfette we're looking at you). It wasn't long before some wag had to mention the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon... oh dear.

• For Greens in Scotland a little talked about problem is how to vote on the constituency list, as the Greens are only standing on the regional, proportional representation list. I'm bound to secrecy as to how I used my vote (well, until 10 pm) but others have opted to spoil theirs.

From Transform Scotland

• Adam at Bright Green has a round-up of how to vote in the devolved assemblies and parliaments.
  
  
• Patrick Harvie has the honour of blogging at Better Nation who have been phenomenal during the election. If there was a gold star award for Holyrood blogging Better Nation, and Jeff in particular, would win it hands down (read the predictions of Malc and Jeff for last minute pointless but fascinating speculation that look good for the Greens).
  
  
• My predictions? Pretty boring really... SNP victory, Lib Dems do badly, Greens increase our representation. I don't think there's going to be much off beam today. I think Galloway is very unlikely to be elected, it's possible Margo MacDonald does not retain her seat, but thoughts of Iain Gray losing his personal seat or a breakthrough for a party not represented in Holyrood last time are nothing more than wishful thinking in my view. We'll see soon enough!
  
  
• Ideas of Civilisation has an interesting post on the downside of winning the Holyrood election.
  
  
• And not to forget They owe us a living on education, LPW on 'the trump', Bella Calendonia's thoughtful piece on liminal moments

When are the results in?

• AV results in: between 8pm and 10pm on Friday and will be announced regionally.
• English Council election result in: through the night starting at 11.30 am and into Friday. Some councils will only *start* counting on Friday.
• Leiceister South by-election: Friday evening.
• Welsh Assembly results in: should be done by Friday 'breakfast'.
• N. Ireland results in: the results will be declared by 5pm Saturday (!)
  
• Holyrood results in: from 2.30am we'll start to see constituency results, from 6am we'll see the first list results full results.

A few highlights from the Scottish election

I thought I'd round up a few of the interesting things (well, interesting to me) that have been happening in the Scottish elections.

Robin Harper, Steen Parish and an owl

In the office sweep stake I'm going to need us to get nine MSPs to win the kitty. I'm ever the optimist but that might be taking it a little too far... even if STV seem to think it's possible.

• This week the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has donated £500 to the campaign to get Patrick Harvie elected in Glasgow.
  
  John Duffy, Scottish Secretary of the FBU, said: "Patrick has consistently recognised the importance of the fire and rescue service throughout the last session of Parliament. He is also very aware of the value of high quality public services and we look forward to working with him to protect those services over the coming years."
  
  
• I was tickled by one restaurant's menufesto voting which includes an explanation of AV and a potentially controversial fish dish chosen by the local Green candidate.
  
  
• As the years go on I'm becoming ever more skeptical that any election rules are actually enforced. However local Lib Dem candidate Pringle has been forced to pulp his leaflets over accidentally describing himself as an MSP even though, technically, he ceased to be one a few weeks ago. Despite his Lib Dem status I rather pity the guy.
  
  
• Red under the bed explains why he'll be voting Green this time.
  
  
• There haven't been many shenanigans this election, but this twitter hoax against Labour was disgraceful, and rather funny.
  
  
• Better Nation has been indispensable to any election geek this election but Jeff's post on how the constituency votes fit with the regional list votes is glorious. It's extraordinary but under the current system votes in the PR list often do not end up electing anyone from a major party at all. In these areas your vote is often best placed for the Greens who will make full use of it!
  
  This table, produced by Jeff, shows the previous elections and the regions where parties did not get anyone elected on the list ballot paper.
  
  
   
  
  
• My predictions for the election are pretty pedestrian - crash and burn for the Lib Dems, a slight increase for the Tories and a slump for Labour as their votes flow to the SNP. I'm not making any predictions for the Greens though... that way lies madness.

Most of the election I've been tucked away in a darkened room but I did get out the other day only to see Alex Salmond get off a London train with two handlers both of whom were struggling under tons of bags as the big man strode joyfully unburdened through the station. Ah, the privileges of power.

Current Scottish Polls

Yesterday's Scotsman has published this latest poll from YouGov. Obviously we'll have to wait for Friday to find out how close their seat project is to reality. Poll

Constituency vote

SNP: 42%
Lab: 34%
Con: 12%
Lib: 7%

Regional vote

SNP: 35%
Lab: 33%
Con: 12%
Grn: 7%
Lib: 6%

Seat projection for

SNP: 54
Lab: 47
Con: 14
Grn: 8
Lib: 5

BBC on the Scottish polls

The BBC have been explaining how the Scottish Parliament elections work here. As you can see they predict that, if current polls are correct, the Lib Dems will come a well deserved fifth. Interestingly, they appear to be saying the English Greens will achieve eight seats which is all very jolly as they are currently busy fighting local elections south of the border... the struggle to keep our broadcasters on brand continues it seems.

Note: polls may in fact be bullshit, but might not be either.

The polls shine on the Scottish Greens

There's always a danger that polls can mesmerise, hypnotise and discombobulatise the political class. As the saying goes, there's only one poll that counts and that's on election day. You could drive yourself mad playing with Scotland Votes, you could. However, whilst the barometer may not be the same thing as the storm they still give an indication of what's happening on the ground outside the fetid party HQs and squalor of the news rooms.

Today's Scottish polls build on the steady results the Greens have been getting throughout the election that we should be doubling or tripling our representation - which would be very welcome, if replicated on the day. In today's polls it puts the Greens on 7 MSPs, equal with the Lib Dems, which brings closer the tantalising thought that we could shove the yellow devils into fifth place.

For more on the number crunching see Jeff Breslin and LPW but Jeff reckons that today's polls would mean 62 for the SNP, 38 Labour, 14 Tory, 7 each to Greens and the Lib Dems and 1 independent.
  I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch, particularly because the national vote has to be spread the right way across the regions for us to get the best possible result. We have eleven days to go and I'd be happy with any increase in MSPs, although if we were to hit, say, the magic number eight I wouldn't send any of them back for a recount.

In fact the poll shows two 'nice' things for the Greens. One that we're doing well enough to see a likely increase in representation and two that the gap between the SNP and Labour is looking unbridgeable - which means any third party squeeze shouldn't be too significant a factor on the day. Iain Gray is likely to resign as Scottish leader of the Labour Party directly after the election (shall we pencil in Monday the 9th for that?) as much of the blame for Labour's poor performance has been laid directly at his door, which is probably unfair even if understandable.

Certainly those who usually vote Labour (or Lib Dem for that matter) for leftist reasons would be making good use of their second vote by lending it to the Greens at this election without it going to waste.

The Greens are explicitly pushing progressive taxation, where we expect the greatest contribution from those most able to pay, renationalising the rail, retaining Royal Mail in public hands, a focus on affordable, warm housing including tackling fuel poverty with a large scale home-insulation scheme, investment in public services rather than cuts and we're even talking about fan ownership of football clubs. Not policies any Labour vote will get you anyway, no matter how left leaning your intention.

With Patrick Harvie still excluded from the leaders' debates (sign the petition) it's all down to the last leg of the campaign on the ground now. Certainly the feeling out on the streets is good for the Greens and we're a distinctive voice among the shades of grey that are the other parties. Let's see what we can make happen on May 5th. If you live in Scotland feel free to get involved with the Scottish Greens campaign.

Tavish faces up to the Lib Dems' Cleggacy

For those to the south of the Scottish border you may not have heard of a gentleman by the name of Tavish Scott. He's the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats who are, it appears, heading for an inglorious drubbing at the polls this May.

Here Scott is quizzed about his party's prospects on the Scottish Newsnight, or Newsnicht as they say in these parts. Car crash TV in its purest form.



Tavish does a number of things here. First of all he tries to pretend that the Scottish Lib Dems are quite separate from their southern cousins. This despite the fact that Clegg was warmly welcomed at their recent conference and that the Lib Dem MPs returned from Scotland have an identical voting record as all the rest of them.

The same broken pledges, the same attempts to blame everyone except themselves for their own actions and the same dismal poll ratings. It simply feels incredibly dishonest to try to disown a government that Lib Dem MPs in Scotland are enthusiastic members of.

Tavish also manages to say that even their plans for Scottish Water (a plan to refinance debt for a short-term cash sum paid back with interest by the tax payer) which are the centre piece of their campaign is something that they'd ditch at a moment's notice if someone, anyone, would only go into coalition with them.

I think Lib Dem voters deserve something better than this.

In fact it's the failure to take responsibility for any policy or decision that I think is the worse thing of all here. This is exemplified by the way that the closure of A and Es is blamed on Labour, even though the Lib Dems were in coalition government with them and supported the policy at the time.

Tavish then says that although Lib Dem policy is now different, the fact that Labour have changed their policy as well is some kind of disgraceful U-turn. It's one of the most incoherent defences of a party's position I've ever seen.

Some people are thinking that a No vote in the referendum is the best way to punish the Lib Dems for their shoddy coalition. I don't agree. The best way to punish them is to make sure they are beaten by the Greens on the list vote. That is where it will really hurt the Lib Dems, lost seats round the table, after all no one really gives a damn about AV anyway.

The far right and May 5th

The Labour years saw a steady increase in the vote of the far right, a rise that took the BNP to historic levels of support and unprecedented, if modest, success at the ballot box - predominately in Labour "safe" seats where the electorate had been taken for granted and ignored for years.

However, by the time our new coalition overlords came to power the BNP's momentum was well and truly broken as the organisation fell into infighting, expulsions and paranoia. Other groupings like the English Democrats and the National Front have made life extremely uncomfortable in selected areas, but as organisations are abject failures.

Sadly, this does not mean that the mood which spawned these far right organisations has disappeared. In fact the last general election saw a record vote for the BNP and with UKIP's more, cough, eccentric approach attracting many of the right's stability challenged individuals we have a movement that has been beaten organisationally but not psychologically.

Of course that doesn't stop the BNP's chief Mussolini impersonator Nick Griffin from being a bugbear used to frighten the children.

For example, the Yes to AV people have been playing heavily on the fact that Griffin opposes AV and if the black shirted devil thinks something we can't possibly agree with him. That rather ignores two obvious things.

Griffin is also for renationalising the railways and opposed the Iraq War. Are the millions of people in this country that do the same somehow capitulating to fascism? Of course not, no more than vegetarians are similar to Hitler. Griffin will hold a host of views, some political some not, that are not the defining feature of his politics. Yet somehow this political irrelevance is being used to give the moral high ground to all those who are voting Yes on May 5th.

It also ignores the fact that Nick Clegg is far more hated than Griffin (because more people actively think hate-y thoughts about him more of the time) so it might not be wise to start playing the "You can't agree with him" game. It makes no more sense to "vote Yes to oppose the BNP" than it does to "vote No to annoy Nick Clegg". Well, it actually makes less sense.

I digress. The electoral prospects for the BNP are dismal at best as they are standing fewer candidates than for years and some former strongholds have no BNP candidates at all. This is all very satisfactory and people in those areas can concentrate on averting the global catastrophe that is mainstream politics free from the distractions of goose-stepping uniform fetishists.

Of course, organisations like Hope Not Hate are working hard targeting those council wards where the BNP can be driven out once and for all. The BNP are defending eleven council seats this year, in particular in Stoke on Trent, and if fail to keep these seats that will be half their remaining councillors gone and the organisation's spirit broken for good. This is where the battle is.

It's frustrating to see in Edinburgh posters up advocating  us to "vote to keep out the BNP". It's frustrating because the BNP don't have a hope in hell of winning an MSP anywhere in Scotland, nor even of coming close to winning one. This election isn't even remotely about the BNP and the only people going into the polling station thinking of the BNP will be the genuinely tiny number of people who will be voting for them.

It's also frustrating because this tactic of mobilising the vote against the far right has a real use under particular circumstances. The classic example is that of Derek Beackon, a BNP member who won their first ever council seat back in 1993, the same year Stephen Lawrence was murdered. The anti-fascist movement came out in droves to get Beackon out and the next year he was out of the council again.

However, whilst inspiring it is worth noting what, specifically, the anti-fascists achieved electorally. Leaving aside the added confidence in the area to those opposing the right, the BNP's vote actually increased from the '93 by-election to the '94 full council election where Beackon gained more than 2,000 votes in his ward (over 28%) but the Labour vote was also dramatically increased as the obvious candidate to beat the BNP.

In the context this was an incredibly useful strategy, but in areas where they have no chance of winning this tactic (which inevitably increases the far right vote) serves simply to advertise the presence of the far right in areas where they do not have the man-power to make their presence felt themselves. In other words in places like Edinburgh ignoring them in elections where they don't have a chance is the best and most effective anti-fascist tactic even though banging the drum might make you feel better and allow you to recruit to your organisation.

The only people going out of their way to let the people of Edinburgh know they can vote for a Nazi this May are the small group of anti-fascists, and the only possible result of their activities is that the BNP's impact in the area is increased. I'd also say that this tactic is less well suited to proportional representation elections (which the second vote is) anyway, because concentrating the "not fascist" vote into one party doesn't stop them getting elected.

The BNP is dying on its arse. In those remaining eleven council seats it needs to be squashed out of existence, but everywhere else the very worse thing we can do is to make out they are still a significant force in UK politics, because frankly the only thing that could save them now is if people start to believe that.

Hustings report: Edinburgh Southern

It was a beautiful sunny day today, so what better place to spend it than in a church hall listening to politicians. Glorious. This time it was the Newington Churches Together hustings for Edinburgh Southern and we had Andrew McPake from the SSP list, Gavin Brown the Tory constituency candidate, Jim Eady the SNP constituency candidate, Margo MacDonald the respected independent, Mike Pringle, the outgoing Lib Dem MSP and Paul Godzik Labour's constituency candidate.

Alison Johnstone for the Greens (pic from here)

Oh, and Alison Johnstone for the Greens who was the best of all of them (pictured).

I'm going to be nauseatingly pleasant for a moment and say I thought they all came across well, in terms of speaking style and personability. In other words there were no 'duds' on the panel, but there was a great deal to disagree with. I wrote sporadic notes throughout but wont attempt to give a blow by blow account, just a flavour.

Alison (Greens) started off and managed to set the agenda of the initial discussion by raising the cuts, whether they are actually necessary and the amount of social harm that they will do. She praised groups like UKUncut for their sterling work against corporate tax evasion and talked about the need for tighter legislation to ensure even the richest companies and individuals have to pay their fair share of tax. As she said the private sector will not fill the jobs gap when public sector workers have been laid off.

Andrew (SSP) said how we used to have a colourful parliament. Full of different parties that represented different view points and this was good for democracy. He hoped to see a 'rainbow parliament' again, with SSP members in it. Like Alison he railed against the cuts and felt that in order to tackle tax avoidance we needed an 'independent Scotland with teeth'. We didn't need cuts but increased taxation revenue, and that was to come from the rich.

Gavin (Conservatives) listed all the money the Tories were giving to various small business schemes and market organisations. For me this came across as hand outs for businesses and we'll close your library. Later he also said that the cuts were *not* savage, but more a gentle rebalancing of the books.

Jim (SNP) was a competent speaker but lacked detail I thought. So for example he said the cuts weren't necessary but I was never sure why he thought that, unless it was his comment about using the wealth oil would bring in - which I'm pretty sure is not a sustainable model. Certainly though he came across as a steady social democrat, but I did drift off a bit when he was speaking. Sorry.

It was good to hear Margo (Independent) in the flesh as I'd heard nice things about her. I was very disappointed then when the main thrust of her opening address was on how essential the cuts were, and that they needed to be deep. She claimed that the politicians (including herself) did not understand the current situation (which I took to mean she didn't) and that we needed to get the election "over with as soon  as possible". Frankly I think the date is set at May 5th and it would be a bit of a hassle to change that now.

Mike (Lib Dems) agreed with Margo about how necessary the cuts were but that his priority at this election was police numbers, and opposition to the merger of the Scottish police forces. He stated very clearly that he was against free prescription charges and opposed to a council tax freeze (at least I can agree with him on that last one).


Paul (Labour) made quite a motherhood and apple pie introduction talking about protecting jobs and "frontline" services, although he was opposed to getting extra revenue from taxation. I wondered how he was going to achieve this, well, "efficiencies" in the "backroom" (where clearly nothing useful happens because the public can't see them) and "Scottish solutions for Scottish problems". In particular he wanted further efficiency savings in the police, fire-service and health. That's all sorted then, job done, no harm to anyone.

Of the highlights of the debate I'd say there were three. First on crime. The Lib Dem and Margo MacDonald both came out against mandatory sentencing for carrying a knife and although the Labour guy tried to defend it he just sounded like someone who likes locking people up and doesn't mind if they deserved it. It was Andrew from the SSP who took it up a  notch getting very impassioned about the low conviction rate for rape in Scotland and noted that it was time we thought about lowering the evidence threshold on rape. I'm not for that, but it was a strong point well made.

The Conservative, Gavin Brown, felt that we weren't sending enough people to prison and that we were letting them out too soon. I should have heckled that Ken Clarke didn't agree with him, but was too lazy.


The second was on renewable energy. Now this is an area which I think is difficult for the Greens (at a hustings). Everyone expects us to be good on this, it's our topic as it were. So if we shine - well, that's as it should be - and if the others all say they like turbines, sun and wave (as they all say they do these days) it's harder for us to be distinctive on this unless we're prepare to really hammer the record of the other parties.

So we had a few comments about how windy and wavy Scotland was and that the SNP were going to make us 100% renewable powered. Then Alison stepped in and, I think, blew the others out of the water. It's all very well arguing for new wind turbines, she argued, they're ok I suppose, but the key problem is that we're using too much energy, not simply that we're producing it in the wrong way.

If our home insulation scheme was rolled out properly (unlike the half hearted scheme the SNP proposed) it would have a phenomenal impact on our energy *needs* as well as making the poorest households warmer. Without tackling waste and reliance on oil fancy renewable technologies wont take us nearly far enough. I thought that was great, as it challenged the idea that green ideas are something you can just buy in and carry on as normal.

The last highlight (there were lots of other questions) was on what party the panelists would be a member of if they couldn't be in their own. It's a great innocent sounding question that is an incredible minefield for all the parties, but especially the Greens.

SNP Jim got in quick with his "The Margo MacDonald Party" which was promptly banned as an answer for further panelists. Then Labour, Lib Dem and the SSP candidates all said they'd be in the Greens (the SSP candidate pointing out that many members of his party had actually been expelled from Labour so might find it hard to go back).

Alison for the Greens, faced with all this love, had to do some quick thinking. She basically ran through the fact that we like some of the policies of other parties and work with them (for instance the SNP and nuclear) but would have real problems digesting some other policies (for instance SNP and road building). In the end she plumped for the Green Party of England and Wales - which in no way answers the question, well dodged that woman.

That only left the Tory who made some weird remark about Solidarity... but I don't think he was considering joining them.

Anyway, those were my impressions. I'm sticking with the Scottish Greens for the list vote, as you might expect, but you'll have to wait and find out who I vote for in the Constituency list where the Greens aren't standing.

Scottish Greens Election Broadcast

Because from Scottish Greens on Vimeo.

Once you've watched this go look at this http://scot.gr/because/

Edinburgh Central: Climate Cafe

Tonight I attended a Climate Cafe for the Edinburgh Central constituency in my ongoing attempt to decide how to use my constituency vote at the upcoming Holyrood elections. All five parties were in attendance and after much careful thought and consideration I decided I'd vote for Greens on the list. They are paying me after all.

The Climate Cafes are a really nice alternative to hustings where voters sit in groups and the candidates rotate round, speed dating style, for fifteen minutes face to face with each group. It's less confrontational and more intimate and everyone attending should get a good chance to ask their question of at least some of the candidates.

It also looks like the candidates prefer it to the all answer in a line approach, which always has the problem that someone answers first and someone last, skewing their ability to look fresh or comeback on other candidates.

I'll make a few comments about each candidate in turn, which were my personal impressions, I'm sure others in the room had a quite different cafe experience.

Labour's Sarah Boyack was first to our table. On some levels she gave the best performance of the five but having had a non-response to my email questions from her I've since discovered a whole number of locals who have found it impossible to get her to reply. If she doesn't listen to her constituents she doesn't get my vote, end of.

Her responses were pretty steady and competent, which always goes a long way and her comments about the reliability of tidal power, despite its early days in the research and development stages were interesting. I think she was the only candidate to mention (unprompted) local energy production, which is another fruitless plus.

Next up was Conservative Iain McGill who appeared a little nervous I thought. In his introduction before the cafe bit started he mentioned how his party was in coalition with 'Alex's Party' which was particularly cruel as I'm sure the Lib Dem Alex was hoping we'd forgotten that, he certainly winced at the time.

Iain took control of the table and directed it from the moment he sat down, which was in contrast to the other four candidates who all allowed the table to direct how the questions got asked. He also talked quite a lot which might have been nerves, or possibly a strategy to reduce the number of questions he got asked.

I asked him how we were meant to be meeting environmental targets if all the regulating bodies had been abolished in the bonfire of the quangos. He replied that the conservatives were not anti-regulation but were in fact for extra regulations, but they would be enforced in a different or new way. I happen to think this is completely untrue, but it was a nice try.

One thing he said that I liked, gasp, was to change the taxation on aviation so that each flight is taxed, not each passenger. I think that's quite a good idea, although admittedly small beer.


Alex Cole Hamilton for the Lib Dems came next who was appropriately enough asked about what he was going to do about all this junk mail. He replied he was on a 'sticky wicket' on this one as he'd be out of the race if he stopped the deluge of paper, which had the ring of honesty about it. He was the only candidate to have canvassed one of our table, which caused a frisson of excitement.

He did say that at a time when "we are cutting back on front line services" (note: this is not the line, the line is front line services will not be effected by the cuts, bad candidate!) councils producing lots of waste paper was one area we could happily cut without tears.

One thing he said that I liked was that it was not currently feasible for us to meet our renewables targets because there was no political will to do so. He said "the political class and the public at large are in second gear on climate change" and I always like to hear candidates slag off the public. I do! The public might not, obviously, but I think it demonstrates a bit of integrity. He then topped it off by saying the Lib Dems were willing to take unpopular decisions - that's one Lib Dem pledge I doubt they'll break!

Marco Biagi for the SNP was up next. He's currently the front runner for my constituency vote, but I'm still open to persuasion. The first question he was asked (not by me) was "Who are your preferences for a coalition partner?" to which he replied "Green, then Labour, then Lib Dem, then Margo MacDonald, then the presiding officer, then, um.... move to Ireland."

He was asked about new coal and he had a particularly dispiriting answer which was there is no need for it, but because of UK law it would happen anyway. While the Scottish government can use planning regulations they are bound over what arguments they can use and climate change is not one of them.

He also put the emphasis on renewable energy technologies, and all but said that we could not afford a massive home insulation scheme even though it is "vital". He is "100% behind it, but where's the cash?" That's not really good enough to be frank, but again it was shot through with honesty.

Green candidate Steve Burgess was last to our table. I'm entirely biased on him so won't bang on, but I thought he came across well with a quietly spoken and mild, thoughtful manner. He was the only candidate to attack oil, talk about moral obligations to other nations (this was a cafe about the climate after all) and the only candidate to talk about the role of the unions.

Things livened up a little when he criticised growth and was asked which industry's workers he was planning to lay off. For me this really underlined how even with a clear job creation plan at the front of our policies our critique of 'growth' needs a lot more refining, especially in the way we articulate it, otherwise it just sounds like we're arguing for a deeper recession - which we aren't.


Steve handled the question well I thought but we're not always there, face to face, to deal with these questions and, for me, all these phrases like steady state economy and zero growth need a lot more work before we fit them neatly into our Green New Deal approach. Anyway, I found it helpful, so thought I'd pass a report on.

Meet the Edinburgh Central candidates

It's hustings central here at the Daily (Maybe) at the moment, although this one is a change of pace from all that Green Party stuff. I'm based in Edinburgh at the moment and in the upcoming Holyrood elections the Greens stand on the second, proportional representation, ballot paper but not in the First Past the Post constituency lists.

This presents people like me, who'd naturally vote Green on any ballot paper put in front of them, with a dilemma - which of the other main parties to vote for? I could, of course, spoil my ballot but I've never been quite that tribal. While there are disturbing similarities between the parties some candidates are always going to be better than others.

To help resolve this conundrum I wrote to the four candidates for Edinburgh Central with three simple questions. They're busy people so an in-depth questionnaire was unlikely to get any response.

The SNP and the Liberal Democrats (in that order) got back to me really quickly with very friendly emails. I heard nothing from the Tory, even after a follow-up email, although in fairness his answers would have had to have been pretty damn good to get on my short list!

Labour's candidate didn't get back to me but someone else did with a terse email asking for my address. I'm not quite sure why that was necessary but I supplied it anyway - that was the last I heard from them. My vote's clearly not worth very much to her then, at least not as much as knowing my address is.

Anyway, thanks to Marco Biagi of the SNP and Alex Cole-Hamilton of the Liberal Democrats for their responses. Here's what they had to say, both really interesting I thought - for different reasons.

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Marco Biagi of the SNP

1) The cuts are dominating the headlines at the moment. Are you in favour of using the Scottish Parliament's tax raising powers to off set job losses and protect public services? If so please do give a specific example.

I support fair and progressive taxation. The existing income tax power is neither. As Holyrood can only change the base rate the burden would fall on virtually all those earning. A 1p rise in the Scottish Variable Rate would mean a £60 per year for a full-time minimum wage worker - and frankly people working for £5.93 an hour 40 hours a week should be paying less tax and not more.

Even using the full 3p of the power would not have been enough to cancel the £1.3bn cut happening just this year. The SVR was intended never to be usable and its designers did their job well. Don't even get me started on Council Tax. It was invented by a Conservative Party who were trying to go as little distance as possible from their beloved poll tax and is even more regressive than VAT. Freezing it is progressive but I'd rather replace it entirely.

The Scottish Parliament's tax raising powers however also cover business rates. In the SNP policy team I helped conceive the Large Retailers Levy as a way of trying to find ways to raise revenue from sources who could even now afford to pay a bit more. Unfortunately this fell under yet another alliance of convenience of the other three big parties.

Other revenue options at a local level are worth exploring, such as scaling empty business relief. Personally I also think we should be courageous and make use of the provisions to introduce a carrier bag charge under the Climate Change Act, provided the money goes straight to green jobs schemes. I'd also like to see money that is Scotland's by right - like the Fossil Fuel Levy or consequentials from the London Olympics - coming to Holyrood. Unfortunately when it comes to enforceability the Barnett Convention isn't worth the paper it isn't written on.


2) I received a free education, my Dad was in the same job for almost all his life and it seems that everywhere I look services, like local libraries, are being closed down. are we moving backwards as a society?

There's a trap here of falling into a giant postmodern discussion about the meaning of progress. Yes, there are fewer libraries in the country than fifty years ago but there are more nurseries (as just one example).

Services change based on the demands of the public and their willingness to pay, and many things the government provides now weren't even thought of back then. Employment has changed almost unrecognisably too - more fragmented and less unionised yes, but also with better rights in workplace safety and minimum pay.

Movement though isn't something that should happen *to* people, it should happen because of them. There can be a better future if people are willing to engage and be part of it - and if people go against those who present dystopia in the language of progress (not that I'm thinking of any Big Society in particular).

The SNP restoring free education by abolishing the Graduate Endowment was the embodiment of a group of motivated people choosing to put one their principles into action and reverse a direction of travel - towards ever more charging - that until then had seemed unstoppable. We chose party politics.

Some people prefer to lobby politicians through interest groups, but it's a lot easier to win an argument with an elected representative if that elected representative agrees with you in the first place. And, incidentally, when it comes to free education, wild horses couldn't shift me - no tuition fees. End of story.


3) I'm voting Green on the list. How would you pitch for my vote on the constituency paper?

That question is a bit of an elephant trap and it would be very easy to be cynical. I'm standing for the party that ended PFI, froze an unfair tax, increased the police to record highs and took class sizes down to record lows, restored free and funded higher education, abolished prescription charges, and focused our support for industry on small business and the new, emerging low carbon technologies.

We've done a lot and we'll do even more if and when we're able to make more of the big decisions about the economy, jobs, pensions and our relations with the rest of the world from here in Scotland. That's the same list of achievements I'd give to anyone on a doorstep, and I'd be doing you a disservice as a voter if I did otherwise. We have an environmental record that is second to none, and I'll expound it any time and anywhere you want. But that's not what you asked.

My answer in a nutshell? I think you should vote SNP on both.

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Alex Cole-Hamilton of the Liberal Democrats

1) The cuts are dominating the headlines at the moment. Are you in favour of using the Scottish Parliament's tax raising powers to off set job losses and protect public services? If so please do give a specific example.

We live in unprecedented times, the UK's structural deficit was costing us £120 million a day in interest payments alone, that's the equivalent of ten new primary schools a day going straight into the pockets of international financiers. So whilst I didn't get into politics to make cuts, I recognise that in this instance something had to give. Labour have a nerve when they suggest that the cuts the coalition are making are deliberately targeted at the poor and vulnerable.

By their own admission, they were going to cut public spending by 16% whilst renewing trident and keeping ID cards, the coalition are only cutting 19% but not renewing trident and scrapping ID cards, so under Labour vulnerable groups would have suffered just as much, because they depend disproportionately more on public spending.

With regard to raising tax in Scotland to offset the need to cut public spending, I'm not convinced. With inflation at 4% and the cost of living soaring as a result, the last thing hard up families need is to pay more tax. I do agree however that the poorest should in fact pay less tax. That's why I'm proud that Lib Dems in government in the UK are moving the income tax threshold to £10,000 meaning that over 90,000 Scottish families will soon pay no tax at all.

I think we can be more sophisticated in Scotland about where the cuts fall and it doesn't have to mean job losses or service closures. Public sector pay is a major area that could provide a saving, I think it's outrageous that hundreds of public sector bosses earn more money than the First Minister and with no accountability. Similarly In think that by delivering services in partnership with the voluntary sector, we can do a lot more, more efficiently and for less money.


2) I received a free education, my Dad was in the same job for almost all his life and it seems that everywhere I look services, like local libraries, are being closed down. are we moving backwards as a society?

A lot of the problems we face are being experienced in many developed countries around the world, but they are worsened in the UK by the size of our deficit and the burden of debt repayment we face. But everywhere I see reasons to be cheerful- in the determination of community groups and charities pulling together to get through these difficult times. Sometimes adversity brings out the best in people and you can see that in local campaigns springing up, like the successful campaign to save Dalry swim centre.

We will come out of this slump with a greater sense of community and an understanding that we need to be more responsible with public spending in the future, to me that suggests we are in fact moving forward as a society, despite the problems we face.

With regard to free education, Students in Scotland pay no tuition fees, because the Lib Dems in Government in Scotland scrapped fees after Labour first brought them in. We intend to preserve free education in Scotland as it should be a right and not a privilege.


3) I'm voting Green on the list. How would you pitch for my vote on the constituency paper?

As a Quaker, a voluntary sector worker and a committed environmentalist, I have always had a great deal of sympathy with the green movement. Our manifesto for the forthcoming elections is packed with policy to make our country and our economy more sustainable and cognisant of our responsibilities to the world around us.

This includes a dramatic refocusing of our economy towards the renewable energy sector, something which, if done correctly, could provide thousands of new jobs. We are also committed to the full implementation of the Climate Change Act. The Liberal Democrats were the only major party consistently to argue for the 42 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020, and we are proud of the role we played in securing the inclusion of cumulative emissions, sectoral targets and tough annual targets within the Act. Concerted effort is now required to meet those targets, and we recognise that sustained, early action over the course of the next parliamentary session is crucial.

Time for a Triple Scotch in May?

In May this year the Scottish Parliamentary elctions will be the most significant election for the Greens in the UK. There are prospects of the great leap into the Welsh Assembly with the possibility of our first Welsh Assembly member and breakthroughs on local councils throughout England, all of which will be most welcome news. But north of the border things look even more exciting, if you can imagine it.

The Scottish Greens (donate) have been represented in Holyrood since the very beginning of time (1999) and currently have two MSPs in the shape of the mellifluous Patrick Harvie and the incredulous Robin Harper.

However, a YouGov poll released yesterday (pdf) suggests the Scottish Greens could be looking for a very happy May election indeed on 6.4%. These figures would mean a leap upwards to six Green MSPs fighting against the cuts agenda and for a sustainable society.

Indeed this is the second recent poll that suggests the Scots Greens might triple their representation. However, where the Times poll (which had only half the number of respondents I believe) was surprising in that it placed the SNP and Labour neck and neck, the YouGov poll confirmed the impression most people are getting that the gap between the Nats and Labour is, in fact, even widening with Labour in the lead.

This is not, I should hasten to add, because Labour are such a vigorous and dynamic force God bless them but because, with the Coalition in power, Labour's army of donkeys in red rosettes are benefitting across the UK from a tidal surge not of their own making, and which, personally, I don't think they deserve very much.

Similarly the Lib Dems couldd run the best campaign in history and they'd get obliterated - the electoral climate is just too inclement for them poor souls. This is probably just as well as they don't appear to have any campaign money.

Of course, we have to caveat all of this with the fact that there is only one poll that matters, and that's in May (no, there isn't a new series of X-Factor then). I really don't want to be like some (not all) SNP supporters who welcomed with open arms the previous Times poll and then are picking apart the more substantial YouGov poll based upon the convenience of the results.

After all, if I was going to cheery pick I'd point to the fact that more people YouGov spoke to said they'd vote Green than Liberal Democrat. I'd dearly love that to be the result on the day but that's before weighting and the poll actually says the Lib Dems are a whopping 0.4% ahead of us.

However, I should to like add "Woo Hoo!" at this juncture.

The thing that makes me nervous and excited by turns is that if you enter the figures into the excellent Scotland Votes site you quickly realise that very marginal differences to the SGP vote can impact on how many Green MSPs we elect. Every second vote counts as they say.