Rukmini SVerified account

In my reporting of govt data, I have seen this before - with crime data. Criticism of cities or states that reported more crime had a very real impact on the incentives of police stations to record FIRs, even when it was clear that higher numbers were a *good* sign.

One prime example of this is media reporting of death audits/ reconciliation exercises. Instead of some appreciation (with criticism!) of the fact that these committees uncovered missed deaths, outrage about numbers rising is dictating how these committees report their data.

Unfortunately, we are reacting with a sort of linear outrage to numbers instead of looking at who has good and bad processes. This has already created perverse incentives - our outrage is already harming us, information is being obfuscated and rationed.

Once you look closely at testing, you can't see growing cases the same way again. Once you see how deaths are registered, you cannot uncritically cheer low deaths any more.

This is a pandemic that has already caused so much devastation. It's a highly infectious and highly dangerous pathogen. So how to react except with outrage to higher numbers? Well once you try to understand how the numbers are produced, it's just not that easy any more.

So surprising and unfortunate to still see a state government conduct crowded public events of this sorthttps://twitter.com/VSrinivasGoud/status/1282572127200145414 …

Last tweet of this thread: please demand that your state releases antigen testing (tests conducted daily AND positives) data separately. It matters.

Kerala is the only other state that I found reports its antigen tests. These tests made up less than 1% of their total tests so far. They too do not report positives separately, but the scale of the problem is much smaller than Delhi, which is leaning so heavily on antigen tests.

Adding mass antigen testing (cheap, quick) to your RT-PCR testing is a public health improvement. Replacing RT-PCR tests with antigen tests is not. Reporting it all so opaquely is an all-round disaster.

The health ministry requires every negative antigen test to be re-conducted via RT-PCR. Zero detail on that from any state. But that doesn't take away from the issue - discovering new positives the more your testing skews towards antigen testing.

The problem is bigger: "test positivity rate" isn't just a cute number nerds like looking at. It directly means that a greater share of the testing is now being done via a less sensitive test, so new patient discovery should be seen with some scepticism.