Why The Chinese-Indian Skirmishes May Escalate

On Monday night a fight between Indian and Chinese soldiers cost several dozen lives:

Twenty Indian Army personnel, including a commanding officer (CO), were killed in a fierce clash with Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh on Monday night, the biggest military confrontation in over five decades that has significantly escalated the already volatile border standoff in the region.
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Government sources said the Chinese side too suffered "proportionate casualties" but chose not to speculate on the number. An ANI source has speculated that at least 43 Chinese soldiers have been seriously injured or killed in the clash.

Both sides have agreed to not use guns along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between the two countries. The soldiers used clubs and stones to fight each other during the night on a mountain ridge at 4,000 meter (14,000ft) height above the steep canyon of a very cold river. Apparently many of the dead fell off the ridge down into the river and died of hypothermia.

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Minor clashes in the area over the historically ill defined and disputed border have been ongoing since April. The immediate reason seems to be a new military access road that India has built towards the LAC and more aggressive patrolling on both sides. But the strategic reasons behind these clashes loom much larger.

First a reminder of the area's history:

Cont. reading: Why The Chinese-Indian Skirmishes May Escalate

John Bolton Opines: "Quod licet bovi, non licet Iovi"

The New York Times was given a preview copy of the memoir John Bolton has written about his time as National Security Advisor under Trump.

Its piece about the book includes a curious contradiction.

This is how the NYT writer characterizes Bolton's time in the Donald Trump White House:

Mr. Bolton sought to use his 17 months in the White House to accomplish policy goals that were important to him, like withdrawing the United States from a host of international agreements he considers flawed, like the Iran nuclear accord, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and others.

Now compare that this quote from Bolton's book further down in the piece:

“A president may not misuse the national government’s legitimate powers by defining his own personal interest as synonymous with the national interest, or by inventing pretexts to mask the pursuit of personal interest under the guide of national interest,” Mr. Bolton writes.

While the NYT seems not to be troubled at all that Bolton pursued "policy goals that were important to him" it emphasizes Bolton's critique that Trump does the very same.

Apparently Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi has been turned into its opposite.

Open Thread 2020-48

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Belarus - A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway

U.S engineered attempts to overthrow a foreign government by stirring civil arrests are usually named after a color or, at times, a flower. Thus we had an "rose revolution" in Georgia, a "green movement" in Iran and an "orange revolution" in the Ukraine.

But now the CIA and its assortment of supporting organizations seems to have run out of color choices. How else can one explain that their latest attempt in Belarus is called a "slipper revolution".

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No, the Guardian, which published the 'Slipper  revolution' headline today but later changed it, did not come up with that stupid moniker by itself.

The U.S. State Department funded Belsat.eu TV station was the first to mention slippers in a picture caption on May 31.

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On June 6 the U.S. government funded RFE/RL was the first to use it in a headline.

Cont. reading: Belarus - A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway

Harry Harris - Insubordinate U.S. Ambo To South Korea - Soon To Be Fired

On Friday the U.S. embassy in Seoul hung up a large 'Black Lives Matter' banner and posted a tweet about it:

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U.S. Embassy Seoul - @USEmbassySeoul - 22:04 UTC · Jun 12, 2020

The U.S. Embassy stands in solidarity with fellow Americans grieving and peacefully protesting to demand positive change. Our #BlackLivesMatter banner shows our support for the fight against racial injustice and police brutality as we strive to be a more inclusive & just society.

When I first saw that tweet on Saturday I wondered how long the banner would stay up. It was clear that the White House would be miffed about it as the banner and the tweet were running against Trump's election tactic of raising tensions.

Today the banner was taken down:

Cont. reading: Harry Harris - Insubordinate U.S. Ambo To South Korea - Soon To Be Fired

The MoA Week In Review - Open Thread 2020-47

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• June 8 - Russia Attempts To Freeze The Conflict In Libya
  Related:
  Turkey tests military flights to Libya amid reports of establishing bases - MEE

• June 9 - How To Change The Meaning Of Monuments Without Removing Them

• June 11 - Coronavirus - How A German City Proved That Wearing Masks Works
  Related:
  A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic - Royal Society
  Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 - PNAS

> Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. <

• June 12 - North Korea Laments Failed Deal With Trump - Will Again Test Nukes And Missiles

• June 13 - This Isn't A Way To Defeat Trump
  Related:
  America Explodes - Adam Shatz on Trump’s domestic war - LRB
  Iran's Zarif sees Trump favourite to win U.S. election - Reuters

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Other issues:

Economy:

A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming - Stephen Roach / Bloomberg
"The Stock Market Is Deluding Itself" - Nouriel Roubini / Spiegel

Censorship:

Narrative Control Operations Escalate As America Burns - Caitlin Johnstone

PayPal have banned the words “Syria”, “Iran” and “Palestine” in all transaction messages. Payments fall ‘under review’.

Today Twitter announced the takedown of 7,340 accounts linked to the youth wing of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey’s ruling party 🇹🇷. My SIO team, w/ @akis_alp, @makrevis, @JoshAGoldstein, and Katie Jonsson, analyzed the network

Twitter partnered with ASPI—a think tank funded by the US military—to ban 170k accounts run by real Chinese people for writing in Chinese, praising China's COVID response, or criticizing the HK protests.
This is the "free speech" & "democracy" that the US wants to export abroad.

This is incredibly alarming. Twitter says the accounts were "spreading geopolitical narratives favorable to the Communist Party of China", such as praising China's response to COVID-19, along with "antagonizing" the US and Hong Kong's protests. Only anti-China views allowed!

The censors at @Facebook are systematically erasing the accounts of Palestinian journalists and photographers: electronicintifada.net/content/facebo…
Facebook should be nationalized then immediately shut down, IMO. Far too much power.

Fun:

Suggested Slogans for the Biden Campaign - New Yorker

Use as open thread ...

This Isn't A Way To Defeat Trump

At Counterpunch Professor David Schultz sees a final fracturing of the Democratic party, labor, and civil rights coalition:

George Floyd being killed by a police officer in Minneapolis is not simply about the death of one Black man. His death also killed an historic but uneasy alliance among the Democratic Party, labor unions, and the civil rights movement. The reaction to his death is ending the last vestiges of the historic New Deal coalition that defined progressive politics in American for at least 50 years, ushering in an era where it now appears that the Democratic Party and the civil rights community are at odds with labor and unions.

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What was the last time these posturing millionaires with political power have done something for the working class?

The 'autonomous zone' in Seattle seems to be run by 'Black Lives Matter':

They come from a variety of groups and interests, ranging from Black Lives Matter organizers to labor and neighborhood groups. Most want the police precinct to be turned into a community center and much of the department’s funding to be redirected to health and social services.

“What you see out here is people coming together and loving each other,” said Mark Henry Jr. of Black Lives Matter. “I see people coming from different walks of life ... learning from each other.”

The zone was set up after the police left the Capitol Hill precinct.

Police Chief Carmen Best said the decision to leave the Capitol Hill precinct wasn’t hers and she was angry about it.

So who told the police to leave the precinct?

Pepe Escobar suspects that the Democrats are using the 'autonomous zone' as a 'color revolution' method to contrast themselves to Donald Trump:

Capital Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) is supported by the city of Seattle – run by a Democrat – which is supported by the governor of Washington State, also a Democrat.

There’s no chance Washington State will use the National Guard to crush CHAZ. And Trump cannot take over Washington State National Guard without the approval of the governor, even though he has tweeted, “Take back your city NOW. If you don’t do it, I will. This is not a game.”

It’s enlightening to observe that “counter-insurgency” can be applied in Afghanistan and the tribal areas; to occupy Iraq; to protect the looting of oil/gas in eastern Syria. But not at home. Even if 58% of Americans would actually support it: for many among them, the Commune may be as bad if not worse than looting.

But then there are those firmly opposed. Among them: the “Butcher of Fallujah” Mad Dog Mattis; color revolution practitioners NED; Nike; JP Morgan; the whole Democratic Party establishment; and virtually the whole U.S. Army establishment.

Escobar points out that 'Black Lives Matter' as an organization has no real political program at least when compared to the movements of the 1960s. It is fed by corporate money and the Ford foundation. The Donate button on its web page goes to Act Blue, a Democrat donation collection service which also works for the Sanders and Biden campaigns.

Do the Democrats believe that they can win the election with such a 'strategy of tension' against a 'law and order' Trump?

If so they are making a huge mistake.

The 'silent majority' that voted for Nixon will also vote for Trump.

North Korea Laments Failed Deal With Trump - Will Again Test Nukes And Missiles

Two years after a failed attempt to make peace with the United States, North Korea announced that will restart nuclear testing and its long range missile program.

On June 12 2018 U.S. President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea met for the first time and signed an aspirational document. The core part said:

Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards the complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

This was a freeze for freeze agreement which North Korea had long offered and which China had urged the U.S. and North Korea to accept:

The U.S. stops the large "strategic" maneuvers involving nuclear capable bombers flying from Guam, aircraft carriers and the like, while North Korea stops testing nukes and missiles. North Korea achieved its first aim. It can now lower its miliary posture and develop its economy.

The situation is still somewhat unstable as both freeze steps are reversible.

The 'freeze for freeze' is, as the Chinese Foreign Minister envisioned, a starting point for a long series of talks which may finally lead to a peace agreement and some nuclear disarmament. Now comes the "dual-track approach" of a peace agreement in exchange for some disarmament "in a synchronized and reciprocal manner". This will be a "step-by-step" process which will take years or even decades.

The U.S. foreign policy borg went immediately to work to sabotage the deal. The Pentagon did not stop its common maneuvers with South Korea and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo constantly claimed that North Korea had promised to disarm without the U.S. doing anything on its side of the deal. It had never done so.

A second meeting between Trump and Kim in February 2019 failed:

Cont. reading: North Korea Laments Failed Deal With Trump - Will Again Test Nukes And Missiles

Coronavirus - How A German City Proved That Wearing Masks Works

A new study shows that mandatory mask wearing is the most effective measure during the Covid-19 epidemic.

On March 23 we started to urge everyone to wear masks during the Covid-19 pandemic:

Wearing a mask helps with protecting oneself but even more importantly helps to protect others. One might be carrying and spreading the disease without knowing it. We all release fine droplets when we speak, sneeze or cough. Masks prevent one's droplets from spreading out.

There was and still is a lot of cultural resistance in 'western' societies to wearing masks even as it seem obvious that masks help to prevent infections. But while there was evidence that masks work in certain situation there was no scientific research that showed the effects general mask wearing would have on the growth of the epidemic. We did not know how much general mask wearing would 'flatten the curve'.

We now have a sound answer. There is now a study that compares a city which ordered everyone to wear masks with a similar city that had no 'mask-up' order during the same period of the epidemic.

On April 6 the German city of Jena with a population of 110,000 people ordered everyone to wear a mask in all public settings. The announcement of the order was made a week earlier and was followed by a local awareness campaign - "Jena wears mask!"

No other city in Germany did this at the time. The states of Germany only ordered mandatory mask wearing between April 22 and 26.

For 20 days Jena was different than the rest of the country but experienced the same epidemic. That made it possible to test the effect the mask order had on the number of new cases in Jena.

To be able to make a one to one comparison with Jena researchers from the University of Mainz constructed a 'synthetic city' of the same size and demographic characteristics as Jena from the weighted data of six other German cities (selected from a bigger pool). They then compared the Covid-19 case data from Jena with the case data from the synthetic city.

At the beginning of the pandemic in Germany the synthetic city and Jena had similar developments. But ten days after the announcement of the order and four days after its mandatory implementation the case numbers in Jena dropped away from those of the comparison city.

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The people in Jena started to wear masks before other German cities did so. It nearly immediately paid off.

At the time of the announcement of the mask campaign Jena and the synthetic control city each had 93 cases. On April 6 Jena had 142 registered cases compared to 143 cases in the synthetic control city. On April 26 Jena counted 158 cases and the synthetic control city had 205 cases. It shows a significant reduction in the growth of the epidemic.

The authors conclude:

Cont. reading: Coronavirus - How A German City Proved That Wearing Masks Works

Open Thread 2020-46

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