Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

Martin Luther King, Jr. (1963): Letter from a Birmingham Jail [King, Jr.] http://www.africa.upenn.edu/Articles_Gen/Letter_Birmingham.html: ‘16 April 1963 :: My Dear Fellow Clergymen: While confined here in the Birmingham city jail, I came across your recent statement calling my present activities "unwise and untimely." Seldom do I pause to answer criticism of my work and ideas. If I sought to answer all the criticisms that cross my desk, my secretaries would have little time for anything other than such correspondence in the course of the day, and I would have no time for constructive work. But since I feel that you are men of genuine good will and that your criticisms are sincerely set forth, I want to try to answer your statement in what I hope will be patient and reasonable terms...

Chris Hayes: Arizona https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1272235663966994433:

.#coronavirus #noted #publichealth #2020-06-14

Cody Ross & al.: Resolution of Apparent Paradoxes in the Race-Specific Frequency of Use-Of-Force by Police https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0110-z: ‘Analyses of racial disparities in police use-of-force against unarmed individuals are central to public policy interventions; however, recent studies have come to apparently paradoxical findings concerning the existence and form of such disparities. Although anti-black racial disparities in U.S. police shootings have been consistently documented at the population level, new work has suggested that racial disparities in encounter-conditional use of lethal force by police are reversed relative to expectations, with police being more likely to: (1) shoot white relative to black individuals, and (2) use non-lethal as opposed to lethal force on black relative to white individuals https://www.nber.org/papers/w22399.... All currently described empirical patterns in the structuring of police use-of-force—including the “reversed” racial disparities in encounter-conditional use of lethal force—are explainable under a generative model in which there are consistent and systemic biases against black individuals.... Statistical assessments of racial disparities conditioned on problematic intermediate variables, such as encounters, which might themselves be a causal outcome of racial bias, can produce misleading inferences. Population-level measures of use-of-force by police are more robust indicators.... Research on encounter-conditional use-of-force by police can also fruitfully contribute to public policy discussions, since population-level measures alone cannot address whether racial disparities are driven by disparities in encounters or disparities in use-of-force conditional on encounters. Tests for racial biases in the encounter-conditional use of lethal force, however, must account for individual-level variation across officers in terms of race-specific encounter rates or risk falling to Simpson’s paradox.…#noted #2020-06-14

James Baldwin (1963): The Fire Next Time https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-baldwin-fire.pdf: 'You may be like· your grandfather in this.... Well, he is dead, he never saw you, and he had a terrible life; he was defeated long before he died because, at the bottom of his heart, he really believed what white people said about him.... You really are of another era, part of what happened when the Negro left the land and came into what the late E. Franklin Frazier called "the cities of destruction". You can only be destroyed by believing that you really are what the white world calls a nigger. I tell you this because I love you, and please don't you ever forget it.... I know what the world has done to my brother and how narrowly he has survived it. And I know, which is much worse, and this is the crime of which I accuse my country and my countrymen, and for which neither I nor time nor history will ever forgive them, that they have destroyed and are destroying hundreds of thousands of lives and do not know it and do not want to know it. One can be, indeed one must strive to become, tough and philosophical concerning destruction and death, for this is what most of mankind has been best at since we have heard of man. (But remember: most of mankind is not all of mankind.) But it is not permissible that the authors of devastation should also be innocent. It is the innocence which constitutes the crime. Now, my dear namesake, these innocent and well-meaning people, your countrymen, have caused you to be born under conditions not very far removed from those described for us by Charles Dickens in the London of more than a hundred years ago. (I hear the chorus of the innocents screaming, "No! This is not true ! How bitter you are !"-but I am writing this letter to you, to try to tell you something about how to handle them, for most of them do not yet really know that you exist. I know the conditions under which you were born, for I was there. Your countrymen were not there, and haven't made it yet. Your grandmother was also there, and no one has ever accused her of being bitter. I suggest that the innocents check with her. She isn't hard to find. Your countrymen don't know that she exists, either, though she has been working for them all their lives)...

Marcus Tullius Cicero (1 Oct. -54): Ad Atticum 4.17.6 http://perseus.uchicago.edu/perseus-cgi/citequery3.pl?dbname=PerseusLatinTexts&query=Cic.%20Att.%204.17&getid=0: ‘Scr. Romae K. Oct. a. 700 (54). Cicero Attico Sal.... Ex fratris litteris incredibilia de Caesaris in me amore cognovi, eaque sunt ipsius Caesaris uberrimis litteris confirmata. Britannici belli exitus exspectatur; constat enim aditus insulae esse muratos mirificis molibus. etiam illud iam cognitum est neque argenti scripulum esse ullum in illa insula neque ullam spem praedae nisi ex mancipiis; ex quibus nullos puto te litteris aut musicis eruditos exspectare…' ('From my brother's letter I gather surprising indications of Caesar's affection for me, and they have been confirmed by a very cordial letter from Caesar himself. The result of the British war is a source of anxiety. For it is ascertained that the approaches to the island are protected by astonishing masses of cliff. Moreover, it is now known that there isn't a pennyweight of silver in that island, nor any hope of booty except from slaves, among whom I don't suppose you can expect any instructed in literature or music...) #noted #2020-06-13

George Stigler (1962): The Problem of the Negro https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/05/weekend-reading-george-stigler-in-1962-on-the-problem-of-the-negro.html: ‘The great disservice of the leaders of Negro opinion was to direct the discontent at the white population.... It was a terrible disservice to identify the white man as the main obstacle to the rise of the negro. It was a disservice because it must lead to hatred, and hatred to violence, and violence to the retardation of the mounting compassion and assistance of the white mean. Could the stream of demonstrations, growing in size and in insolence, approved or at least tolerated by the political, intellectual, and religious leaders of the nation, have any other message for a semi-literate Negro teenager in a slum, than that evil prejudice of the white man was the fundamental cause of his low estate?… Consider employment. The Negro boy is excluded from many occupations by... prejudice.... But he is excluded from more occupations by his own inferiority as a worker.... Lacking education, lacking a tenacity of purpose, lacking a willingness to work hard, he will not be an object of employers' competition. What leader of Negro thought is fostering the ancient virtues of diligence and honesty and loyalty? It is so much easier to seek quotas.... It is not easy or popular to place the Negro's discontent upon himself. People will insist upon speaking of the previous or present faults of the white community, which numerous and deplorable—and now unimportant.... People will denounce any talk of the Negro's cultural and economic inferiority as racism... https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-stigler-negro-1962.pdf .#economicsgonewrong moralresponsibility #racism #2020-06-11

Rudyard Kipling (1919): The Gods of the Copybook Headings http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_copybook.htm: ‘AS I PASS through my incarnations, in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations, to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers, I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all...

...We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn.
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind....

With the Hopes that our World is built on, they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things....

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew.
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled, and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man.
There are only four things certain, since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit, and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing, and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

.#books #noted #kipling #2020-06-10

This is... not good... #coronavirus #noted #publichealth #2020-06-09

Henry Farrell: Broken Hearts https://crookedtimber.org/2020/06/09/broken-hearts/: ‘US libertarian intellectuals are increasingly divided.... Some are opting for a renewed commitment to democracy (where they are building arguments that are in some ways far more radical, and in other ways less radical than standard liberals)... pushing them towards... political commitments... rang[ing] from... NeverTrump Republicanism through to... Elizabeth Warren. Others are doubling down on the commitment to markets (and, tacitly, or explicitly, the Schumpeterian benefits of continued inequality), and a more opportunistic approach to politics where they are willing to strike tactical policy alliances.... This divide has surely been sharpened by the events of the last few weeks, and is likely to get sharper still over the next several months… #noted #2020-06-09

https://delong.typepad.com/files/twitter-delong-pseudocia-reading-2020-06-08.pdf

.#books #cognition #ontwitter #2020-06-08􏰌􏰆􏰝􏰝􏰗􏰉􏰊 􏰥􏰦􏰧􏰒 􏰝􏰟􏰆 􏰍􏰈􏰁􏰃􏰔 􏰨􏰤􏰝 􏰗􏰉 􏰝􏰆􏰁􏰜􏰔 􏰈􏰣 􏰤􏰕􏰊􏰁􏰂􏰃􏰗􏰉􏰊 􏰩􏰈􏰤􏰁 􏰍􏰆􏰝􏰍􏰂􏰁􏰆􏰢􏰗􏰔 􏰁􏰆􏰜􏰂􏰁􏰪􏰂􏰨􏰌􏰩 􏰃􏰗􏰣􏰣􏰗􏰫􏰤􏰌􏰝􏰠 􏰬􏰫􏰂􏰉􏰉􏰗􏰉􏰊 􏰃􏰂􏰁􏰪 􏰔􏰩􏰜􏰨􏰈􏰌􏰔 􏰂􏰊􏰂􏰗􏰉􏰔􏰝 􏰂 􏰌􏰗􏰊􏰟􏰝 􏰕􏰂􏰊􏰆 􏰝􏰁􏰗􏰊􏰊􏰆􏰁􏰔 􏰣􏰆􏰂􏰝􏰔 􏰈􏰣 􏰜􏰆􏰜􏰈􏰁􏰩 􏰂􏰉􏰃 􏰗􏰜􏰂􏰊􏰗􏰉􏰂􏰝􏰗􏰈􏰉 􏰝􏰟􏰂􏰝 􏰗􏰉􏰔􏰝􏰂􏰌􏰌 􏰂 􏰝􏰆􏰜􏰕􏰈􏰁􏰂􏰁􏰩 􏰔􏰤􏰨􏰭􏰮􏰤􏰁􏰗􏰉􏰊 􏰗􏰉􏰔􏰝􏰂􏰉􏰝􏰗􏰂􏰝􏰗􏰈􏰉 􏰈􏰣 􏰝􏰟􏰆 􏰂􏰤􏰝􏰟􏰈􏰁􏰯􏰔 􏰰􏰱

􏰎􏰜􏰆􏰉􏰝􏰗􏰈􏰉􏰔 􏰲􏰗􏰉􏰃 􏰈􏰉 􏰩􏰈􏰤􏰁 􏰈􏰍􏰉 􏰍􏰆􏰝􏰍􏰂􏰁􏰆􏰳 􏰍􏰗􏰝􏰟 􏰍􏰟􏰈􏰜 􏰩􏰈􏰤 􏰝􏰟􏰆􏰉 􏰟􏰂􏰘􏰆 􏰂􏰉 􏰗􏰜􏰂􏰊􏰗􏰉􏰂􏰁􏰩 􏰫􏰈􏰉􏰘􏰆􏰁􏰔􏰂􏰝􏰗􏰈􏰉􏰳 􏰃􏰂􏰝􏰆􏰳 􏰂􏰉􏰃 􏰃􏰗􏰔􏰫􏰤􏰔􏰔􏰗􏰈􏰉

https://delong.typepad.com/files/twitter-delong-goldberg-2020-06-08.pdf

https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/12/walter-womackas-socialist-realist-stained-glass.html #notetoself #reminder #2020-06-08

Occasionally—not often—and largely by accident, Peggy Noon writes something true: Peggy Noonan: On Some Things, Americans Can AgreeJ https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-noonan-deplorable.pdf: ‘[Trump] explicitly patronized his own followers... as if he was saying: I’m going to show you how stupid I know you are. I’ll give you crude and gross imagery and you’ll love it because you’re crude and gross people. And some would love it. But... not most.... His base... his 40%... [he will] keep it.... He is proud of his many billionaire friends and think they love him. They don’t. Their support is utterly transactional. They’re embarrassed by him. When they begin to think he won’t be re-elected they will turn, and it will be bloody and on a dime.... He should give an Oval Office address announcing he’s leaving.... He won’t be outshone by his successor. Network producers will listen to Mike Pence once and say, “Let’s do ‘Shark Week.’ ” But you know, America could use a shark week… #journamalism #noted #2020-06-08

Duncan Black: You Expect Us To Read Our Own Opinion Page? https://www.eschatonblog.com/2020/06/you-expect-us-to-read-our-own-opinion.html: ‘"Hi James, do you have anything to say?" "We published Cotton’s argument in part because we’ve committed to Times readers to provide a debate on important questions like this." "James, did you even read it?" "Uh, no." Society can only survive so many generations of elite failsons running everything. They're stupid and lazy and immoral and dishonest and they think they're smarter than you because of where they fucking went to high school (James went to St. Albans, you know)… #journamalism #noted #tags #2020-06-08

Smart observations through the lens of French collaboration after 1940 and eastern European collaboration after 1945:

Anne Applebaum: Why Do Republican Leaders Continue to Enable Trump? https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/trumps-collaborators/612250/: 'The point is not to compare Trump to Hitler or Stalin; the point is to compare the experiences of high-ranking members of the American Republican Party, especially those who work most closely with the White House, to the experiences of Frenchmen in 1940, or of East Germans in 1945, or of Czesław Miłosz in 1947...

I like Michael Bennet a lot: his position is that he pushes for policies where he can see a path to getting 60 votes in the senate. By all accounts Doug Bennet was a great president of Wesleyan. But James Bennet—both at the Atlantic and at the New York Times—appears, by all accounts, to have been the wrong person at the wrong time in the wrong job, and to have lacked the self-awareness to understand that:

Ben Terris: Can the Bennet brothers Save the Establishment? https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-terris-james-bennet.pdf: 'In early 2014... Caitlin Flanagan... the state of fraternities in America.... The article included the story of a female student who was raped at a Wesleyan University party, and the ugly court battle that followed---during which the college tried to defend itself against a lawsuit by blaming the woman for putting herself in an unsafe situation. [Father] Douglas Bennet... was not president of the college at the time of the sexual assault or the subsequent court case... mentioned in the story only in passing.... James agreed to recuse himself from any role in editing the story, but Jennifer Barnett, the managing editor at the time, said in an interview with The Post that "over the course of producing the story, he abused the staff and undermined the editorial process."...

...James mistreated Scott Stossel, the editor in charge of the story, often in "hard-to-detect ways," such as not inviting him to staff gatherings, ignoring his emails and cutting him off when speaking in front of colleagues. When reached to comment, Stossel, who still works at the Atlantic, said in an email: "James, with whom I worked for a decade, was an excellent, highly principled editor-in-chief and I'm very proud of the journalism we produced under his leadership. In this particular situation, circumstances put James into an impossible position, so he was recused from working on that piece, which we published as a cover story, to general acclaim."

Barnett said she reported James to human resources three times during the episode. In an email, she told Scott Havens, who was then president of the Atlantic, that James had been acting "openly hostile" toward Stossel. It was "affecting every aspect of the magazine production," she wrote, "and is quite literally making me ill." "Hi Jennifer, thanks for reporting this," Havens wrote back. "Please know I'm also aware and involved." (Havens declined to comment for this article.)

After the story published—without any changes made by James—James called the managing editor into his office. "He told me to 'be very careful,'" Barnett said. "That he was 'in this for the long game.'" A short time later, James was promoted to co-president of the Atlantic and eventually lured back to the New York Times. But not before Barnett left journalism. "I quit because of him," she said—adding that it wasn't only the fraternity story but the atmosphere James created.

"I'm astonished and very sorry to hear this, but there's no way I can defend myself. I've said I would recuse myself from anything related to my brother's campaign, and this article clearly falls into that category," James wrote in an email when asked to comment...

.#noted #2020-06-08

A slow recovery from the coronavirus recession will be a societal policy choice. But I think that it is a societal policy choice that we are going to make. Adam Ozimek is trying to push back the tide, and it is a tide:

Adam Ozimek: '[Labor market] matching matters https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1269979410947506177. The argument from the G[reat ]R[ecession] was never that recovery could happen overnight, but that it could have happened significantly faster...

I am writing before this event has taken place. But I am extremely confident that it will be—was—very interesting and very useful:

Heather Boushey & co.: Recession Ready: Fiscal Policy Options to Support Communities and Stabilize the Economy https://www.hamiltonproject.org/events/recession_ready_fiscal_policy_options_to_support_communities_and_stabilize_the_economy: 'Monday, June 8, 2020 :: 2:00-3:00 p.m. EDT :: Online Chat Washington, DC: The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth will host a webcast discussing the importance of expanding aid to state and local governments as part of the continued fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The webcast will begin with a fireside chat with Rep. Don Beyer, vice chair of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, and Heather Boushey of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. The webcast will also include a roundtable discussion between Jason Furman of Harvard University, former Mayor of Philadelphia Michael Nutter, and Jay Shambaugh of The Hamilton Project. The webcast will coincide with the one year anniversary of the release of The Hamilton Project and Washington Center for Equitable Growth book, "Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy"... #equitablegrowth #noted #2020-06-08

Always smart, always interesting, always useful. I am, however, going to suggest that Kate, Carmen, and company focus more on employment rather than unemployment numbers. I am becoming increasingly skeptical of how much the unemployment rate, as the CPS questions are asked and answered, corresponds to the reality of our economy:

Kate Bahn & Carmen Sanchez Cumming: Equitable Growth's Jobs Day Graphs: May 2020 Report Edition https://equitablegrowth.org/equitable-growths-jobs-day-graphs-may-2020-report-edition/: 'On June 5th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of May. Below are five graphs compiled by Equitable Growth staff highlighting important trends in the data. As the overall unemployment rate declined to 13.3%, this was led by a decline in white unemployment from 14.2% to 12.4%. Meanwhile, Black unemployment increased slightly from 16.7% to 16.8% and Hispanic unemployment declined from a historic high of 18.9% to 17.6%.... Employment across sectors began to rebound in May, and growth was led by leisure and hospitality after this industry lost nearly half of all employment in the prior month.... After the most extreme decline in employment levels in history in April, the prime-age employment rate moved upward in May to 71.4%... #equitablegrowth #noted #2020-06-08

A very smart piece from Iona Marinescu. One of the frequent complaints about unemployment insurance is that it is not incentive-compatible on the job search dimension. A cash bounty for those losing their jobs whether or not they get quickly reemployed would eliminate this worry:

Ioana Marinescu: Moving from Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation to a Job Losers' Stimulus Program Amid the Coronavirus Recession https://equitablegrowth.org/moving-from-federal-pandemic-unemployment-compensation-to-a-job-losers-stimulus-program-amid-the-coronavirus-recession/: 'My proposed policy, the job losers' stimulus program, is a cash stimulus for workers who have lost their jobs regardless of whether they remain unemployed or find new employment. Compared to only providing higher unemployment benefits to the unemployed, the job losers' stimulus program boasts the twin benefits of providing greater support to workers who have been most affected by pandemic-related job losses while also modestly increasing overall employment. The exact size of the impact of this new stimulus program is difficult to predict, but a simple policy simulation shows that it could increase the amount of stimulus by 34 percent and allow an additional 6 percent of workers to exit unemployment and return to work within 4 months of losing their jobs... #equitablegrowth #noted #2020-06-08

The WCEG, historically, has been much more of a “class” than a “race” organization—and more of a win-win pie growing than a redistribution-per-se organization. We very much need to shift more in the race and intersectionality directions. Where, I think, there is a gap we can fill is in pushing forward especially hard on research on the aggregate costs to the economy as a whole of racial prejudice, discrimination, and oppression:

Equitable Growth: Elevating Economic Research on Racist Violence & Exclusion in the United States https://equitablegrowth.org/elevating-economic-research-on-racist-violence-and-exclusion-in-the-united-states/: 'On May 25, 2020, a police officer murdered George Floyd in Minneapolis...

...one of the most recent murders of Black people either by law enforcement or by civilians who faced no immediate consequences... Ahmaud Arbery... Breonna Taylor... Tony McDade, David McAtee... far too many others... the unacceptable view of the expendability of Black lives... the undeniable harm caused by racism and the persistent damage that is present today....

The violence and repression wielded against Black people, often carried out by authorities at all levels of government in the country or implicitly sanctioned by those same authorities, is deployed in order to minimize Black Americans' political power and economic opportunity.... It is impossible to understand our economy, our failure to ensure broad-based growth and stability, and the economic connections to social and political power without addressing these forces in our policy frameworks and policymaking.

That's why the Washington Center for Equitable Growth is elevating key empirical research... on incarceration and police militarization, as well as economic consequences of racist violence, exclusion, and disenfranchisement.... Equitable Growth must still do much more...

.#equitablegrowth #inequality #noted #racism #2020-06-08

Note to Self #tickler: The works & relevance of A.C. Pigou:

Ian Kumekawa (2017): The First Serious Optimist: A. C. Pigou and the Birth of Welfare Economics https://www.amazon.com/Ian-Kumekawa-ebook/dp/B071R54415/...
Ian Kumekawa (2020): We Need to Revisit the Idea of Pigou Wealth Tax https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-kumekuwa-pigou-wealth-tax.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1916): The Economy & Finance of the War: Being a Discussion of the Real Costs 0f the War & the Way in Which They Should Be Met https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-war-finance.pdf...
Arthur Cecil Pigou (1919): The Burden of War & Future Generations https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-pigou-burden-of-war.pdf...
Arthur Cecil Pigou (1920): A Capital Levy & a Levy on War Wealth https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-wealth-tax.pdf...
Arthur Cecil Pigou (1920): The Economics of Welfare https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-economics-of-welfare.pdf... Arthur Cecil Pigou (1940): The Political Economy of War https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-war.pdf...
Arthur Cecil Pigou (1946): Income: An Introduction to Economics https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-income.pdf...
Arthur Cecil Pigou (1947): A Study In Public Finance https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-public-finance.pdf...

  #economics #equitablegrowth #inequality #politicaleconomy #notetoself #moralphilosophy #tickler #2020-06-07

Lucy Meilus, Kelly Dobkin, & Tae Yoon: Best Burgers in NYC: Good Burger Spots for Delivery & Takeout Orders https://www.thrillist.com/eat/new-york/best-burgers-nyc: ‘Lucali Burger. Bond Street Cafe. 365 Bond Street, Brooklyn: Located in Gowanus right by the canal, this local American cafe specializes in coffee, breakfast items like avocado toast, and a hefty list of sandwiches both hot and cold. Remaining open during COVID, Bond Street Cafe has continued to offer its regular menu for takeout and delivery, in addition to adding a special burger made in collaboration with famed Brooklyn pizzeria, Lucali. The Lucali Burger’s double patties are made with a blend of brisket and short rib from local butcher Paisanos and is served with melted American cheese, onions, pickles, mustard, and ketchup between a seeded roll… #coronavirus #food #noted #2020-06-07

Gandalf the Grey talking shop. Since none of the eight people he is talking to are wizards, nobody he is addressing has the slightest idea what he is talking about—except possibly Legolas: Gandalf: The Fellowship of the Ring: 'I found myself suddenly faced by something that I have not met before. I could think of nothing to do but to try and put a shutting-spell on the door. I know many; but to do things of that kind rightly requires time, and even then the door can be broken by strength. As I stood there I could hear orc-voices on the other side: at any moment I thought they would burst it open. I could not hear what was said; they seemed to be talking in their own hideous language. All I caught was ghâsh: that is “fire”. Then something came into the chamber–I felt it through the door, and the orcs themselves were afraid and fell silent. It laid hold of the iron ring, and then it perceived me and my spell. What it was I cannot guess, but I have never felt such a challenge. The counter-spell was terrible. It nearly broke me. For an instant the door left my control and began to open! I had to speak a word of Command. That proved too great a strain. The door burst in pieces. Something dark as a cloud was blocking out all the light inside, and I was thrown backwards down the stairs. All the wall gave way, and the roof of the chamber as well, I think… #books #noted #2020-06-04

My day job as a professor is teaching people at the college level. Americas colleges and universities are highly, highly effective as teaching institutions: we boost people’s incomes by about 7% for each year attended, and it looks as though only 2%-points of those 7 are signaling and selection—the rest are true value. Moreover, those who major in my discipline, economics, appear to gain an extra 20% in income relative to those similarly situated who major in some other non-STEM discipline. Plus we genuinely believe that we open mental doors, and give our students the tools they need to live richer lives.

But there has long been a problem with colleges and universities as an industry: we do not really understand how we do it. Much of what we do is give lectures, assign readings, and administer tests. But the research shows that most of our students learn very little from lectures, are rather poor at learning from readings (when they do them, rather than take a look at the pile we have overassigned and give up), and cram for tests in a way that turns test studying into the opposite of effective reinforcement learning.

The smart money has been that our success as an industry is primarily the result of the social-intellectual rather than the formal-intellectual component of higher education. But we are not sure. This problem, however, has been on the back burner for years… generations… perhaps centuries… because our “customers” have long been highly satisfied.

But now this knowledge problem of ours has suddenly become urgent. The social-intellectual component of education has come crashing down in the age of coronavirus. We badly need to retool. We badly need to retool immediately. Yet we do not know how to do so:

Scott Galloway: How Coronavirus Will Disrupt Future Colleges & Universities https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/scott-galloway-future-of-college.html: ‘The value of education has been substantially degraded. There’s the education certification and then there’s the experience part of college. The experience part of it is down to zero, and the education part has been dramatically reduced.... At universities, we’re having constant meetings, and we’ve all adopted this narrative of “This is unprecedented, and we’re in this together,” which is Latin for “We’re not lowering our prices, bitches.” Universities are still in a period of consensual hallucination with each saying, “We’re going to maintain these prices for what has become, overnight, a dramatically less compelling product offering.” In fact, the coronavirus is forcing people to take a hard look at that 51,000 tuition they’re spending.... It’s a great year to take a gap year.... Ultimately, universities are going to partner with companies to help them expand. I think that partnership will look something like MIT and Google partnering. Microsoft and Berkeley. Big-tech companies are about to enter education…

 #berkeley #cognition #noted #teaching #universities #2020-06-04