The manipulation of the presidential election result in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has exposed a fault line in Africa between those who want the real result of the election held on 30 December 2018 to be respected, and those who support the DRC’s sovereign right to self-determination (the most powerful of these is South Africa). This unprecedented division highlights new power relations in Africa and the issues it faces.
The DRC’s Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) caused instant controversy with its announcement of provisional results on 10 January this year. The African Union initially called for a recount, but then accepted the verdict from the DRC’s constitutional court on 20 January. Against all evidence, Cap Pour le Changement (Coalition for Change, CACH) candidate Félix Tshisekedi was declared the winner, with 38.6% of the vote, ahead of another opposition challenger, Martin Fayulu of Lamuka (Wake up!, 34.8%), and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, former interior minister and outgoing president Joseph Kabila’s preferred successor (23.8%). The election was first-past-the-post with a single round of voting.
A report on 18 January from the highly respected National Episcopal Conference of Congo (CENCO) presented a very different result based on a representative sample of 13.1 million voters: this put Fayulu first with 62%, and Tshisekedi and Ramazani Shadary level, both with 17%. The method for the bishops’ polling survey has been used in recent elections in Ghana, Nigeria, Tunisia and other African countries.
The official result was the product of a last-minute arrangement between Kabila and Tshisekedi. Kabila, faced with his preferred candidate’s defeat, opted for next best: a deal with the runner-up (the CENCO poll put Tshisekedi marginally ahead of Ramazani Shadary). In the CENI-approved parliamentary election held on the same day, Kabila’s supporters secured a comfortable majority, with more than 300 seats (...)
