Victorian state election: Poor Coalition campaign bodes ill for Morrison government
Matthew Guy's Liberal-National coalition is on track to lose the popular vote in Saturday's Victorian election decisively, and that doesn't augur well for Scott Morrison's federal government in the federal election to be held by next May.
It pays to be cautious in translating state election outcomes to the federal sphere, but the large margins in favour of Daniel Andrews' Labor government in the latest uComms/ReachTEL and YouGov/Galaxy polls – 54:46 and 53:47 – don't augur well for the Coalition.
They confirm the Liberals and the Nationals are failing to connect with the electorate in the second largest – and fastest growing – state in the nation, which is more ethnically diverse and socially liberal than other states, Monash University political scientist Paul Strangio says.
"It's a major problem for a political party that they cannot speak to Victorians effectively. This result will only affirm Labor's dominance in Victoria, which is also reflected in federal elections where Labor consistently wins the two-party preferred vote," Strangio says.
The Coalition is already battling byelection losses in Longman, in Queensland, and Wentworth, in Sydney's eastern suburbs, and an adverse federal electoral redistribution. The net result of these has been to reduce its nominal seat numbers to 73 in the 151-seat house and lift Labor's numbers to 71, narrowing the gap ahead of the federal election.
The branding problems revealed by their failure to cut through in Victoria despite crime and terror attacks playing to their dominant campaign theme of law and order – and Prime Minister Scott Morrison weighing in on their behalf – are only compounded by the redistribution, and the fact that the coalition is trailing in federal polls by an election-losing margin.
Crime doesn't pay
"The general sense of the Coalition branding being in a poor state in Victoria is exacerbated by the redistribution, so they are up against it in this upcoming federal election in Victoria," Strangio says.
One problem for Morrison and his team is that – like Guy's team – they are campaigning heavily on crime, terror, and law and order, but the uComms-ReachTEL poll taken on Wednesday suggests that while this weighed on many voters' minds, it didn't shift a lot of votes.
The 1239 respondents were asked what impact the Bourke Street terror attack on November 9 had on their voting intentions. Of the 39 per cent who gave their primary vote to Labor, 93 per cent were just as likely or more likely to vote Labor, and only 4.7 per cent had shifted to the coalition. Of the 36 per cent who gave their primary vote to the coalition, 92.5 per cent were just as likely or more likely to vote coalition, and 5.4 per cent had shifted to Labor.
In Victoria at least, the Coalition's rhetoric on an issue which is likely to be a major plank of the Morrison government's campaign platform next year seems to have repelled at least as many voters as it attracted. Overall, the polls had firmed for Labor, not the Coalition.
Others states may react differently – the Victorian election may not be a good guide to the NSW election next March. But crime and terror don't look sure-fire winners for the Coalition over Labor's focus on everyday needs in health, education and transport services.
Another issue on which Guy's coalition campaigned on a starkly different policy – vowing to rip up Andrews' renewable energy targets and build a new power station instead – doesn't appear to have played to their advantage either.
That should be another warning to the Morrison government, which is readying a similar attack on federal Labor's $17 billion clean-energy package.
