Labor's $2000 battery rebate won't tip sales
Labor's $2000 rebate for household batteries will be the "icing on the cake" for consumers wanting to take the plunge into behind-the-meter technology but won't make a huge difference to the uptake of battery storage in Australia, according to energy industry experts.
While the price of roof-top solar photovoltaic units have plunged in recent years which has encourage rapid uptake in solar PV, battery units have yet to hit the critical price point for mass consumption in Australia.
Labor's $2000 rebate scheme will help take the edge off the final price for a battery unit in Australia, but it won't make a substantial difference to the final decision to buy an average battery storage unit, which cost between $10,000 and $14,000.
If a household was looking to install a new battery/solar combination it would probably set them back close to $20,000.
"The rebate will just be a little sweetener," Green Energy Markets director Tristan Edis told AFR Weekend.
But Mr Edis believes Bill Shorten's pledge to help install 1 million battery storage units in Australia by 2025, will be a vote of confidence in the sector which is aiming to piggyback on the popularity of the roof-top solar industry in Australia.
He expects solar and battery storage installers across the country to start marketing packages around the rebate which will be available for up to four kilowatts for households that earn less than $180,000 a year.
"The value of the rebate is not just the $2,000 but the focus or market halo effect its creates within consumers. Australians love a rebate and it's a bit of an endorsement," he said.
There are about 50,000 battery units installed in Australia, according to solar consultancy SunWiz, with 21,000 installed last year and a further 30,000 expected by the end of this year.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts the residential energy storage market will top over 60,000 in 2019, making it the second largest in the world.
Federal Labor's $2000 rebate scheme will join state schemes in Victoria (capped at $4800), South Australia (capped at $6000), Queensland and the ACT, but a future Shorten government won't allow households to "double-dip" between federal and state incentives.
The Morrison government has warned the scheme could end like the disastrous pink batts scheme adopted by the former Rudd government, while others have warned it could create another financial headache like the generous solar feed-in tariff schemes which became mostly redundant when the price of solar PV plunged.
SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston said battery prices had not come down in recent years and they were not expected to come down as quickly as solar PV. In fact, battery prices had risen 5 per cent this year because of the demand for electric vehicles and some companies, such as Tesla, increasing the price of their popular Powerwall product.
"It [the rebate] takes a significant chunk off the first small bit of battery, but it's only to 4 kilowatt hours, which is not a massive battery," he said.
"But I think it is needed and it's a valuable way of strengthening our grid and accelerating our energy transformation and modernising our electricity infrastructure. It's a way of showing leadership and it's a vote of confidence in the sector."
A Bloomberg New Energy Finance report said the sale of batteries in Australia in 2018 had been disappointing because the payback periods are between 15 and 60 years unsubsidised.
"PV with storage remains an irrational purchase and too expensive for most consumers," it said.
But with a predicted market of 60,000 in 2019, BNEF warned the global market may not be able to keep up with supply.
"The availability of residential storage systems from leading providers has been limited in 2018 and may not ease until 2020. If installers are simply unable to procure enough energy storage systems, installations will be delayed into 2020," it found.
But Brisbane-based solar and battery producer Redback Technologies chief executive Patrick Matmeew said rebates were the most effective way to move Australia to a clean energy future.
