Hullabaloo

Wednesday, November 07, 2018

 
"Tuesday’s results only widened the persistent gulf between those coalitions"

by digby




The best analysis of last night's results and what they portend for the future is, unsurprisingly, by Ron Brownstein:

On Tuesday, a divided America returned a divided verdict on the tumultuous first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. Rather than delivering a “blue wave” or a “red wall,” the election produced a much more divergent result than usual in a midterm.

Democrats made sweeping gains in the House, ousting Republicans in urban and suburban seats across every region of the country to convincingly retake the majority for the first time since 2010. They also made a dramatic recovery in the Rust Belt states that tipped the presidency to Trump in 2016: Democrats won both the governorship and Senate races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the three bricks in the party’s “blue wall” that Trump dislodged to capture the White House.

But Republicans expanded their Senate majority across a belt of older, whiter heartland states, and crushed liberal hopes by denying victory to the three young Sun Belt Democrats who had captured the party’s imagination more than any other candidates in this election cycle. The Republicans Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz respectively defeated the African American gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum in Florida and Beto O’Rourke, the Texas Senate hopeful who energized party activists across not only the state but the country. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams, seeking to become the nation’s first female African American governor, trailed Republican Brian Kemp, but refused to concede while waiting to see whether the count of remaining ballots would force a runoff in December.

The combined results reconfirmed the deep lines of division etched in Trump’s narrow 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton. The evening amounted to a simultaneous repudiation and reaffirmation of Trump from two very different Americas, and underscored the fundamental demographic, cultural, and economic changes reshaping America and its politics.

The results dramatized both the benefits and the costs of the electoral bargain Trump is imposing on his party. Behind his racially infused nationalism, the GOP is trading white-collar voters for blue-collar voters; suburban for rural; and younger for older. Those trends advantaged them in a Senate map centered mostly on white heartland states, and they also showed continued potency in Sun Belt battlegrounds such as North Carolina and Georgia, where overwhelming margins among working-class white voters allowed Republicans to overcome erosion in other categories.

In Senate races, Trump successfully mobilized his coalition to help Republicans oust Democratic incumbents in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri, all states that he carried in 2016. Montana remained too close to call on Wednesday morning, though many analysts believed Democrat Jon Tester had a clearer path to victory. Trump’s coattails in the Republican victories were apparent: Exit polls conducted in Indiana and Missouri showed Trump’s approval rating at 50 percent or above in each, with the GOP candidates winning 86 to 88 percent of the voters who approved of him.

But for the first time in Trump’s national political career, the electoral costs of his approach also came due. House Republicans were swept away in urban and suburban districts, from New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Virginia in the East, to Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, Des Moines, and Kansas City in the Midwest, to Denver, Tucson, Orange County, and possibly even Salt Lake City in the West. Republicans fell even in suburb-heavy southern districts around Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Charleston, and possibly Atlanta that traditionally have leaned much more reliably red than similar areas in other regions.

All of these suburban seats were in places where voters are doing best in the buoyant economy, but widespread discomfort with Trump’s style and values ignited a huge backlash among college-educated white voters—primarily women, but also an unusually large number of men. The exit polls put Trump’s approval rating among college-educated white voters at only about 40 percent. Burdened by that verdict, Republican House members were swept away in fast-growing, economically dynamic metro areas.

In the midwestern states that were key to Trump’s victory in 2016, the Democrats rebounded, while also facing reminders of the obstacles they may face in reclaiming those states from Trump in 2020. Democratic Senators in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—all of whom were considered at risk after Trump carried their states two years ago—won comfortable victories. The party also reelected a governor in Pennsylvania, beat Scott Walker in Wisconsin, and took over for the outgoing GOP governor in Michigan. Still, Republicans comfortably held the Ohio governorship, and narrowly prevailed in Iowa.

In the Sun Belt, Democrats were frustrated by a string of relatively narrow losses. But the strong showing of Abrams in Georgia, Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona (whose race had not been called as of Wednesday morning), and, above all, O’Rourke in Texas could signal a revival of their competitiveness in those states. O’Rourke actually won more votes in Texas than Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 presidential race, an incredible performance. At the same time, the dispiriting loss for Gillum in Florida underscored the difficulty Democrats face winning the state in a high-turnout election—an ominous sign for 2020.

These diverging results—big Democratic gains in the House and respectable advances in governorships offset by a strong Republican performance in the Senate—were rooted in the intense polarization around Trump. Exit pollsmeasuring the national vote in House races showed that Democrats posted big advantages among the groups most antagonistic to the president: young voters(they carried about two-thirds of those younger than 30 and three-fifths of those between 30 and 40), African Americans (about nine in 10), and Latinos (about two-thirds). Republicans in turn won about three-fourths of white evangelical voters and ran up a double-digit lead over Democrats among rural voters.

But the defining trend of the night—as throughout the Trump presidency—was the substantial gap between white voters with and without a four-year college education. That gap helps explain both the Democratic suburban gains in the House and the strong GOP performance in the Senate.

In the first decades after World War II, white voters without a college education consistently voted more Democratic than white voters holding a four-year college degree or more. That’s flipped in recent years, with Democrats at both the congressional and presidential level consistently winning a higher share of white voters with a college degree than those without one.

That inversion has intensified under Donald Trump. In both the 2010 and 2014midterm elections under Obama, House Democrats won only about one-third of non-college whites and about two-fifths of whites with a college degree. In 2010, Democrats ran six points better among college whites than non-college whites; in 2014, the gap was seven points. But in 2016, with Trump on the ballot, the gap roughly doubled to 13 percentage points, as House Republicans improved further with non-college whites and lost ground among college-educated whites.

On Tuesday, the gap between the two groups expanded further. Democrats carried only 37 percent of white voters without a college education (compared with 61 percent for Republicans). But Democrats won a 53 percent majority of college-educated white voters (compared with 45 percent for Republicans). Tuesday’s Democratic performance among white voters without a college degree improved just slightly from their weak showings in the 2010 and 2014midterms, when they carried only about one-third of them each time. But their showing with college-educated whites on Tuesday represented a big improvement from those two previous midterms, when they carried about two-fifths of them in each election, according to exit polls. This week, Democrats not only carried 59 percent of college-educated white women, an unprecedented number, but reached 47 percent among college-educated white men; they hadn’t reached even 40 percent among those men nationally in any House election since 2008.

That surge in white-collar support sparked the gains in suburban seats that produced the Democrats’ first House majority since 2010. But the persistence of Trump’s appeal with blue-collar voters, amplified by his frenetic and fear-infused final campaign swing, frustrated Democratic hopes in several districts with substantial rural populations that they had earlier hoped to capture, including seats in Kansas and Kentucky. Trump also helped Republican Ron DeSantis win the Florida governor’s race by following the same model the president employed to carry the state in 2016: big margins in small places, which allowed them to overcome commanding Democratic advantages in the urban centers. Rick Scott, whose Florida Senate race appears to be heading for a recount, benefited from this dynamic as well.

On each side there was some regional variation in this pattern. The Rust Belt Democratic Senators who won reelection in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan each pushed past 40 percent among white voters without a college education. That was hardly a commanding performance, but it represented at least some recovery from Hillary Clinton’s anemic showing in the same states in 2016—and it is sure to encourage Democrats who want to focus on recapturing those states as the most straightforward path back to the White House in 2020.

Conversely, the Democratic performance among college-educated whites in the South—who tend toward more conservative positions than their counterparts elsewhere, particularly on social issues—continued to lag. O’Rourke did capture just over two in five college-educated whites, which was a notable improvement over earlier Democrats in Texas (who have often struggled to win more than 30 percent of those voters), but it wasn’t enough to overcome Cruz’s distinct advantage among non-college whites, who gave him about three-fourths of their votes, according to the exit poll. Abrams, even more strikingly, lost over four-fifths of whites without a college degree, while attracting just a little over one-third of those with one. That was also better than Georgia Democrats had done in the past, but—pending the final ballot counting—not enough to win. The key to Gillum’s loss, a big letdown for Democrats, may have been his inability to win more than about one-third of college-educated white men (even as he won nearly three-fifths of white women with a college degree).

The parties are realigning dramatically. But because of our weird federalist system, the Senate and the electoral college are difficult even though the Democrats have a much larger coalition. A majority of states with more cows than people really, really, really like him. And there are a bunch of them.

If Democrats want to beat Trump they are going to have to choose someone who can transcend that divide in at least a few places.

Looming over all of this was the intensely divisive figure of Trump. As noted above, his approval rating stood at 50 percent or more in almost all of the states where Republicans notched important victories. But nationally, just 45 percent of voters approved of Trump’s performance, while 54 percent disapproved, according to the exit polls. And while 88 percent of those who approved of Trump said they backed Republican House candidates, fully 90 percent of those who disapproved said they voted Democratic. The correlation between attitudes toward the president and the vote in congressional races has been growing in recent years. But among both Trump’s supporters and his detractors, the connection between attitudes about the president’s performance and the House vote on Tuesday night was the highest recorded in exit polls since at least 1982.

Those numbers quantify the outsized shadow Trump is casting on American politics. Even as suburban voters in major metro areas from coast to coast registered an emphatic statement of discontent with his direction and performance, the small-town, exurban, rural, and blue-collar areas that powered his victory reaffirmed their commitment to his cause. Tuesday’s results only widened the persistent gulf between those coalitions and set up even more intense conflict between them moving forward.

It is about him. But it's also about his people. There are millions of them and they worship him. He can do no wrong.

It's going to be hand to hand combat all the way to 2020. I hope people are prepared for that and the Democrats don't wank ineffectually over internecine nonsense for months and instead concentrate on the big picture. There is no front-runner for the presidential race and I have no idea who the best candidate to win in 2020 will be. There are going to be a bunch of people running and we'll get a chance to see them in action.

Personally, I'm hoping for a younger, fresh face without decades of baggage hung around his or her neck. Democrats need to focus on the future and cast Trump as the guy who wants to turn back the clock to a time that never existed. I think, at heart, that's the real issue and it's always good to have someone who embodies your message.

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digby 11/07/2018 12:00:00 PM

 
The threat

by digby

REPORTER: Are you worried about getting hit with a blizzard of subpoenas now that Dems control the House?

TRUMP: If that happens, then we are going to do the same thing, and government comes to a halt. And I would blame them. pic.twitter.com/WTKDRETy13

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 7, 2018

Remember this?

Jason Chaffetz, the Utah congressman wrapping up his first term atop the powerful House Oversight Committee, unendorsed Donald Trump weeks ago. That freed him up to prepare for something else: spending years, come January, probing the record of a President Hillary Clinton.

“It’s a target-rich environment,” the Republican said in an interview in Salt Lake City’s suburbs. “Even before we get to Day One, we’ve got two years’ worth of material already lined up. She has four years of history at the State Department, and it ain’t good.”

In a tweet Wednesday night, Chaffetz reaffirmed his distaste for Clinton and his refusal to endorse Trump — but reversed his plans not to vote for the Republican nominee.

If Republicans retain control of the House, something that GOP-friendly maps make possible even in the event of a Trump loss, Clinton will become the first president since George H.W. Bush to immediately face a House Oversight Committee controlled by the opposition party. (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama lost Congress later in their presidencies.)

And other Republican leaders say they support Chaffetz’s efforts — raising the specter of more partisan acrimony between them and the White House for the next four years.

“The rigorous oversight conducted by House Republicans has already brought to light troubling developments in the [Hillary] Clinton email scandal,” the office of House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) said in a statement to The Washington Post. “The speaker supports [Oversight’s] investigative efforts following where the evidence leads, especially where it shows the need for changes in the law.”

And the Oversight Committee may not be the only House panel ready for partisan battle. While the Select Committee on Benghazi appears to have finished its work, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a committee member who says Clinton might have perjured herself on questions about her email, said recently that he wants the committee to continue.

On the campaign trail, Republicans running for every office confidently talk about Clinton facing criminal charges one day.

“Lady Justice doesn’t see black or white,” Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) said Wednesday at a rally in Loveland. “She doesn’t see male or female. She doesn't see rich or poor. But soon, lady Justice will see Hillary Clinton.”

It is the most illiberal statement ever seen on Television by an American President. It is a direct assault on the Founders vision of a Republic where Absolute power is constrained by a system of checks and balances. Trumps bullying, distemper and dishonesty are on full display

— Steve Schmidt (@SteveSchmidtSES) November 7, 2018

digby 11/07/2018 10:30:00 AM

 
The Democrats are now on the field. Let the battle begin.

by digby

My Salon column this morning:

Good morning. Welcome to the first official day of the 2020 presidential campaign! I'm sure you're all ready to roll up your sleeves and get to work. It that makes you feel like buying your face in a gallon of Ben and Jerry's and never coming up for air, I don't blame you. But it's the truth. Last night marked the end of the beginning of the Trump era. We're now hopefully at the beginning of the end.

If the midterm results are any example, it's going to be a wild ride. As I write this we don't know the final numbers yet but it's clear that the polls were on target projecting a Democratic House win and a GOP Senate hold. The new Democratic caucus is going to be younger and more diverse than ever, with "firsts" of many kinds, including the first Native American women, first Muslim women and the first Democratic Latina Governor. In fact, over 50% of the seats that were flipped from red to blue were won by women and the total number of women in the House is going to be historic:

Projection: today is the first day in history Americans have elected more than 100 women to the U.S. House of representatives.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 7, 2018

The Democrats also took six legislative chambers out of Republican hands and flipped at least six governorships.

And yes, they lost some heartbreakers as well, including the flagship Senate and Governor races in Texas, Florida and Georgia although the results were very close and some may not be decided yet. And there was always the hope that despite the brutal Senate electoral map that had Democrats defending far more seats than Republicans, ten of them in red states, they could possibly run the table and pick up a couple more. It wasn't a surprise that it didn't happen but disappointing that so many Republicans are still so happy to give Trump a blank check. His base in the solid red states came through.

Nonetheless, it was a good night for Democrats, delivering exactly what they need to put a check on the Trump administration and solidify their own base as they gear up for the next phase of this rebuilding of America. I wasn't kidding when I said that this is really the first day of the presidential election. There will be no respite. It's on.

So how did the president respond to last night's results? He issued a perfunctory congratulations tweet to the winners and then posted this:

“There’s only been 5 times in the last 105 years that an incumbent President has won seats in the Senate in the off year election. Mr. Trump has magic about him. This guy has magic coming out of his ears. He is an astonishing vote getter & campaigner. The Republicans are.........

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2018

....unbelievably lucky to have him and I’m just awed at how well they’ve done. It’s all the Trump magic - Trump is the magic man. Incredible, he’s got the entire media against him, attacking him every day, and he pulls out these enormous wins.” Ben Stein, “The Capitalist Code”

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2018

.@DavidAsmanfox “How do the Democrats respond to this? Think of how his position with Republicans improves-all the candidates who won tonight. They realize how important he is because of what he did in campaigning for them. They owe him their political career.” Thanks, I agree!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2018

Surprise. President Trump seems to think he won big last night. The White House is already claiming he won "five for five" because he campaigned in Indiana, Missouri, Texas, Florida, and Georgia as if it's a brilliant feat for Republicans to win those states. Nonetheless, you can bet that he will be strutting around bragging about his strategic genius for the next two years.

He did not win big and this race tells us that he's weaker than he knows. Job growth has slowed down slightly from the last two years of Obama's presidency but unemployment is at 3.6% and this economic expansion has now reached historic levels. And yet he has never been able to raise his approval rating above what it was when he was elected, which was far below the usual approval rating for a new president. Right now, it's still running on average at least two points below where President Obama's was at this point in his presidency when the economy was still a smoldering ruin from the Great Recession and unemployment was at nearly 10%. With those economic numbers all the models show that he should be much more popular than he is.

And those Midwest states that allowed him to eke out tiny little victories that gave him his electoral college win? They are anything but solid for Republicans.

According to ABC News he was feeling uncharacteristically introspective on Tuesday morning:

"I've seen many of the newspapers saying it's a referendum on what we've done, so I don't know about that, but I can tell you that's the way they're going to play it, and if we don't have a good day, they are going to make it like it’s the end of the world,” Trump said in a call with the supporters the day before the election.

“The election,” Trump said, “is very vital because it really is summing up what we've done, it's going to show confidence for what we've done.”

"Even though I'm not on the ballot in a certain way I am on the ballot," Trump said.

But he wasn't worried, not really. He told his rally goers the other night that the House might be gone and reassured them that it would all be fine. He said, "It could happen. And you know what you do? My whole life, you know what I say? 'Don't worry about it, I'll just figure it out.'"

Apparently, he's "figured out" that the best thing to do is declare victory and boast about his brilliance. So, we will begin this new campaign right where we left off the last one.

Come January, Democrats will have the power to challenge the president and it will change the dynamics substantially. There will be oversight, public hearings and subpoenas flying and they are long overdue. The rampant corruption and conflicts of interest must be investigated. There must be some accountability for his policies that shock the conscience and violate the constitution. These things have to be publicly aired so that the people can see the scope of the scandals that are enveloping the executive branch.

We don't know how that will affect him and his followers. It would appear that for the most part they have been unmoved by Trump's outrageous performance in office these first two years. His base turned out in great numbers to endorse the party that enables him. They haven't lost the faith one bit. But we are only at the halfway mark of this ongoing nightmare. And the second half is going to be very different from the first.

Former Republican strategist Steve Schmidt put it this way: "Trumpism was repudiated in suburban and urban America, emboldened in rural America. Elected Republicans will learn from this that running away from Trump is a loser, cozying up is a winner."

So the fight continues. The difference is that the Democrats are now on the field and their army just got a whole lot bigger.


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digby 11/07/2018 09:00:00 AM

 

The day after

by Tom Sullivan

Image ncsl.org

Democrats took back control of the U.S. House last night, winning the 23 seats they needed for control, plus some. Counting continues this morning in some marquee races too close to call. At least six state legislative chambers flipped from Republican to Democratic control, below the 12 seen in similar cycles going back to 1900.

Trumpism took a hit last night, but did not go down. Democrats won governorships in Michigan and Wisconsin where Donald Trump victories in 2016 gave him the White House. Reuters reports by this morning Democrats had flipped at least seven Republican-held governorships. Democrat Andrew Gillam lost his bid for Florida's governorship. The race in Georgia between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp remains too close to call. Abrams trails but has not conceded.

Progressives will take comfort in seeing Wisconsin's Scott Walker and Kansas' Kris Kobach going down to defeat.

Republicans flipped U.S. Senate seats in North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana, increasing their majority by two.

It was a "massive night for female candidates" from both major parties. With races still outstanding, CNN projected 98 women would win House races. Women are competing against each other in two undecided races, so at least 100 women will serve in the House next year, a record number. The tilt favors Democrats.

Democratic victories are still being tempered by the losses.

Two longer-term results. First, state Democrats now look to 2020 races to help them gain control of redistricting in 2021. Advances in flipping legislatures last night make that more possible. Second, Democratic control of the U.S. House makes life harder for a Trump administration. Already facing the outcome of special counsel Robert Mueller's investigations, the sitting president now faces House investigations led by new Democratic committee chairmen beginning in January. Late last night, MSNBC's Ari Melber reported the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), will request President Trump's tax returns, teeing up a confrontation with the White House even before Democrats take control.

Expect Trump to move quickly now against Attorney General Jeff Sessions as he reinforces barricades around the White House and goes on attack against Mueller.

Star Fox News host and informal Trump adviser, Sean Hannity, joined Trump in campaigning for Republican candidates in Missouri Monday night. CNN reports news staff at Fox are "livid." While a Fox News spokesperson claims the "unfortunate distraction and has been addressed," there were no details of how. If it was not clear to the world Fox News is effectively state TV under Trump, Hannity confirmed it Monday night.

Tuesday night was just a skirmish.


Undercover Blue 11/07/2018 06:00:00 AM

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

 
Trump says if the GOP loses: My whole life, you know what I say? 'Don't worry about it, I'll just figure it out.'"

by digby




He's trying to figure out who to blame and how to wriggle out from responsibility if the GOP doesn't do well tonight. I think we can expect lots of claims of voter fraud, as he did in 2016 to explain away Clinton's 3 million popular vote win. And he'll blame the fake news and probably the GOP leadership. If they keep the Senate, he'll take credit. But if it doesn't go well, he's got to find a way to somehow explain that his magical demagogue tour wasn't the cause.

He's also got absolutely no idea what to do next:

Sources tell me & @Santucci that in calls w/ some advisers this morning Trump's message has been clear: he is not on the ballot. But yesterday in Cleveland, POTUS said: "In a sense, I am on the ticket."

— Katherine Faulders (@KFaulders) November 6, 2018

Tuesday’s election results will test whether the former reality star’s messaging -- to make the 2018 midterm elections about an “invasion” of migrants that hasn’t happened – is a success. No matter the results, the president signaled he would not take the blame.

"I've seen many of the newspapers saying it's a referendum on what we've done, so I don't know about that, but I can tell you that's the way they're going to play it, and if we don't have a good day, they are going to make it like it’s the end of the world,” Trump said in a call with the supporters the day before the election.

“The election,” Trump said, “is very vital because it really is summing up what we've done, it's going to show confidence for what we've done.”

"Even though I'm not on the ballot in a certain way I am on the ballot," Trump said.

But don't worry Trump cultists, he's got a plan:

Days before the election, the president appeared to admit for the first time that Republicans might lose the House. "It could happen," Trump said. "And you know what you do? My whole life, you know what I say? 'Don't worry about it, I'll just figure it out.'" Trump said.

He's dancing as fast as he can. Will he be able to dance out of this one?


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digby 11/06/2018 04:00:00 PM

 
Mobs Vote Trump 

by tristero

A mob is what the Charlottesville white supremacist riot was:

A mob is the Proud Boys:

Mobs vote Trump.

If you don't want to be ruled by these mobs:

VOTE!



tristero 11/06/2018 03:00:00 PM

 
The shallow end of the gene pool

by digby






Republicans are the most gullible people in the world:

Polls weren’t even open yet in some parts of the country before Election Day hoaxes started taking off online.

One fake video that’s getting circulation on both Facebook and Twitter today purports to show CNN anchor Don Lemon laughing as Democrats burn flags in a celebration of the “blue wave.”

Twitter pulled the video from its site around 11:00 a.m. on Tuesday, although it’s still on Facebook.

The video, which claims to be a scene from CNN’s “Reliable Sources” comes complete with a CNN-style chyron: "Dems celebrate 'Blue Wave' Burning Flags on Election Day." The original version of the video has was viewed nearly 55,000 views on Twitter since being posted Monday, with the tweet promoting it retweeted nearly 5,000 times.

The video is obviously fake, with the “CNN broadcast” actually consisting of unrelated footage of Lemon put next to footage of protesters burning flags. Even the show listed in the clip is wrong, since Lemon hosts “CNN Tonight,” not “Reliable Sources.”

The video appears to have been first posted by Twitter user “@RealDanJordan,” who said it was a reason to vote for Republican candidates.

“Do not give these people the satisfaction of a win on Tuesday,” the tweet reads. “Vote #Republican. Help @POTUS wipe the smile off the faces of these globalist elites.”

Speaking of "globalist elites" get a load of this:

TRUMP praises IVANKA before bringing her on stage.

"She's just smart. No, don't worry, I'm smart also, and we are smart. Don't you love it when they talk about the elites? Right? When they talk about the elites -- I want to tell you, this is the elites, Ivanka." pic.twitter.com/XL2T6ePHM8

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 6, 2018

The Trump's have business all over the world.

But whatever. The Trump voter isn't exactly the sharpest tools in the shed.



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digby 11/06/2018 02:00:00 PM

 
"The Democrat plan will obliterate Obamacare"

by digby

That's what he said, adding even more confusingly, "which is good."

His cult members clap like trained seals as usual:

The longer version of this dingbat quote is if anything even better. Trump says that Democrats will destroy Obamacare and that Obamacare is good. Then he says how McCain prevented Trump from destroying Obamacare but don't worry he's still going to destroy it next year. pic.twitter.com/l9MKzVBzmT

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 6, 2018

These crowds freak me out. People this deluded and illogical walk among us. They drive cars. They have jobs that have people's lives in their hands. It's a miracle the human species has survived this long.


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digby 11/06/2018 01:00:00 PM

 
They can't even do this right

by digby

A little diversion as we gnaw our fingernails down to the bone:

Got a chance to see the White House commemorative coin from Trump’s meeting with Putin in Helsinki. So far spotted 3 typos in the Russian inscriptions, including in the word “Helsinki.” pic.twitter.com/yhZapuL1sN

— Alina Selyukh (@alinaselyukh) November 5, 2018

I'm sure it gave Vlad and company a good laugh. It's just more evidence that he's an idiot.

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digby 11/06/2018 12:00:00 PM

 
Border patrol cancels its election day “mobile field force demonstration”

by digby



A moment of sanity:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection abruptly canceled a crowd-control exercise it had planned near a Hispanic neighborhood in El Paso on Tuesday after critics raised concerns that the presence of so many armed border agents could discourage voting.

The agency had planned to stage a “mobile field force demonstration” Tuesday morning at the Paso del Norte border crossing, in an area adjacent to a neighborhood known as Chihuahuita with about 100 modest homes.

After lawmakers, activists and the American Civil Liberties Union questioned the decision to conduct the exercise on Election Day, Border Patrol agents said it had been postponed.

The controversy flared as voters began going to the polls in a city where high turnout is especially crucial to the Senate campaign of Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the El Paso Democratic candidate challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

CBP and Homeland Security officials rejected allegations that the training exercises had any relation to the election.

It might even be true. But it says something that they feel the need to stage such a demonstration near a Hispanic neighborhood in the first place.

It's ridiculous that voting is so contentious in this country that this kind of thing has to be monitored constantly.

Reminder: there is no systematic voter fraud in this country. It simply doesn't exist. But vote suppression is more and more prevalent, especially now that the wingnut Supreme Court decided that it doesn't exist.

Our democracy is in crisis for a lot of reasons but this is right at the top of our list of problems.

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digby 11/06/2018 11:00:00 AM

 
Rank misogyny has been just as blatant as Trump's racism in this campaign

by digby



He's basically been calling Latinx migrants vermin and referring to black candidates as "unqualified" and "thieves."  But let's not forget that his incessant braying about Kavanaugh every night is nothing more than unfiltered misogyny:

Barely a month after CNN reported that President Trump’s initially “respectful” treatment of a sexual assault accuser left his aides “quietly stunned,” President Trump’s last two speeches before Tuesday’s midterm elections attacked the women who accused Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault.

“This woman came out and said she made up the story,” Trump said on Monday evening in Fort Wayne, Indiana, referring to a woman in Kentucky who reportedly admits she fabricated an allegation against Kavanaugh.

As the crowd started chanting “lock her up!” Trump added, “And they gotta look at the other ones also, folks, because... take a look at the other ones, folks!”


By “other ones,” Trump was referring to Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez, two women who accuse Kavanuagh of sexual assault.

A couple hours later in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, Trump seized upon news of the fabricated Kavanaugh allegation to make a case that all of the women who accused Kavanaugh of misconduct were lying.

“It was false accusations, it was a scam, it was fake, it was all fake!” Trump said, ignoring that both Ford and Ramirez have corroborating evidence for their claims.


Shortly after she came forward publicly with her account of being assaulted by Kavanaugh at a party while they were in high school, Ford disclosed she and her family weren’t living at home because of threats she was receiving. Trump, however, called for renewed scrutiny on her anyway.

Despite what Trump’s comments might lead people to believe, neither Ford or Ramirez have recanted any part of their claims against Kavanaugh. But the president’s decision to attack and subject them to further threats and public ridicule illustrates why women are reluctant to come forward with allegations against powerful men in the first place.

“Lock her up!” chants weren’t just directed toward Kavanaugh accusers on Monday night. During his rally in Missouri, Rush Limbaugh and U.S. Senate candidate Josh Hawley (R) each prompted the chant to be directed toward the typical object of Trump’s abuse, Hillary Clinton.

If women do come out to vote for Democrats in the numbers predicted in the polling, Republicans have no one to blame but their Dear Leader and themselves for their disgusting behavior toward the women of this country.

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digby 11/06/2018 10:00:00 AM

 
If you're told you can't vote

by digby

People should not have to worry so much about this. But when you have the president of the United States tweeting out things like this...

Law Enforcement has been strongly notified to watch closely for any ILLEGAL VOTING which may take place in Tuesday’s Election (or Early Voting). Anyone caught will be subject to the Maximum Criminal Penalties allowed by law. Thank you!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2018

Via CNN:

Even if your state doesn't require an ID to vote, it's best to bring one if you have one. Being over-prepared is just another layer of protection against voter suppression.

Remember that, most likely, you are LEGALLY ALLOWED to vote

What if you are told your registration didn't go through, or you don't have the required documents? Even if your registration is pending or your voter application has been wrongly purged, you are still allowed to vote.

According to the ACLU, if your qualifications are challenged, some states will have you sign a sworn statement that you satisfy your state's requirements and allow you to cast a regular ballot.

Or, if you did forget your ID at home or have been removed from the registration system, you can cast a provisional ballot -- a right all voters are entitled to by federal law.

If an individual declares that such individual is a registered voter in the jurisdiction in which the individual desires to vote and that the individual is eligible to vote in an election for Federal office, but the name of the individual does not appear on the official list of eligible voters for the polling place or an election official asserts that the individual is not eligible to vote, such individual shall be permitted to cast a provisional ballot...
§15482, CHAPTER 146, TITLE 42 OF THE 2009 UNITED STATES CODE

However, you're going to need to be your biggest advocate when it comes to provisional ballots: These ballots are typically kept separately from all other ballots, so make sure to follow up with your local elected officials to confirm they have looked into your qualifications and have counted the vote.

If you're aggressively being questioned about your right to cast a vote, you can calmly and clearly state you are exercising your legal right to vote. Report the behavior to other poll workers and peacefully communicate your intent. You should also report such incidents to election hotlines or local and state officials as voter intimidation. You have a few options:

Call a state or local election hotline to report any problems you're having with the voting process.

Call the Department of Justice voting rights hotline (1-800-253-3931) if you think your rights have been violated

digby 11/06/2018 09:00:00 AM

 
Win or Lose: We Must Demand Investigations

By Spocko

Democrats are expected to be good winners. After a Democratic win, the media will ask the Democrats about their plans to reach across the aisle when they arrive in congress. The media will question Democrats on how they will "unite the country," as if they were the ones working 24/7 to divide it. They will ask about--and expect--bipartisanship going forward.  Many Democrats will fall for this framing from the media. I understand. They want to be uniters, not dividers.

Democrats are expected to forgive and forget how Republicans did nothing while our highest values were trampled on by Trump.

 Even if an opponent lied about health care and supported hateful and violent rhetoric from Trump, Democrats are expected to forgive and forget. They will talk about being a representative for all the people in the district, not just the people who voted for them, because that is what you are supposed to say as a good winner.


Red and Blue Being Good Sports. AP photo CBS News

Democrats are expected to be good losers. They aren't supposed to demand investigations of voter suppression, hacking and campaign election fraud. There will be pressure to conceded rather than fight the results.  The mainstream media, Republicans and some centrist Democrats will want Democrats to concede --even when there isn't an overwhelmingly clear winner or loser!

Howie Klein said the other day that many Democrats have to win by 6-8 points because of the gerrymandering and voter suppression. That's insane.

But here's the deal. Democrats don't have to be good losers. We can be suspicious about all results that weren't projected blowouts for the Republicans.  We SHOULD be suspicious. If the shoe is on the other foot this evening Republicans will be demanding investigations.

Democrats don't have to be good winners. We can be winners who don't forget about the bad things that happened. I want winners who will change things so the people who follow them can have fair elections.

If there isn't punishment for abuses of power and law breaking in our system the problems continue. That is what happens when we only "look forward not backward" after a win. If we don't investigate and prosecute the people involved, the problems never stop.

Some problems, like breaking norms that weren't laws (e.g. disclosing taxes) need to be made into laws.

Democrats don't want to be like Red Hats at a Trump rally, mindlessly screaming 'Lock him up!' about their opponents. We actually do believe in the rule of law and the assumption of innocence until proven guilty. But what if their opponents actually committed crimes? 

We need a chant that assumes innocent until proven guilty. Something that applies to both real and false allegations of wrong doings. How about:

"A Full Investigation Means Justice For The Nation!"
(Nah, too many syllables, but at least it rhymes.)

Full investigations take time. People have short attention spans. Our people won't be in office until January. The good news, if you can call it that, is that Trump and his people will continue with their violent rhetoric, law breaking and lying every single day, win or lose.

As Sam Seder said, the Trump fever won't break if they lose. They didn't relax when they won. They are angry winners because they knew they didn't really deserve it. When they lose they will scream and cry like Trump. Everyone will be to blame but themselves. It will all be so very very unfair.

In The Squire of Gothos a powerful child-like being was punished by his parents who then apologized to the crew for the damage he had done.  When his parents took him away he whined, "But why? I didn't do anything wrong. I was winning, I was winning! You saw!" Sound like anyone you see on TV?

Post election we need to stay vigilant and keep track of people to investigate.

Newly elected Democrats will need to hold various members of the GOP accountable for their role in enabling this dangerous child with power. This includes holding people accountable who knew about various crimes, had the power to stop them, but didn't.

Finally, we can't let law-breaking, resigning Republicans fly off onto Lobbying World free as a bird. Yes, I'm alleging Republicans broke the law. I know of six Republicans who broke campaign finance laws in connection with money they got from the NRA that was really from Russia. Which specific laws they broke and how much they knew is still unclear, but that is why we need investigations.

Win or lose the GOP will continue to damage to the country until they are prosecuted for their crimes. Mueller's findings will push Trump into new levels of craziness between now and January.  Get ready to demand full investigations. 
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Spocko 11/06/2018 07:30:00 AM

 

It's show time…

by Tom Sullivan

Polls are open across most of the country.

Monday morning, Cook's Political Report moved nine seats towards Democrats:

A "Red Exodus" is contributing to the potential "Blue Wave:" of Republicans' 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican.

Just by winning all of the races at least "leaning" their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota's 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That's not impossible, but it's very difficult.

The shift is another indication Democrats have the edge they need to retake the U.S. House. FiveThirtyEight sees a 1 in 5 chance Democrats will win control of the U.S. Senate.

NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 final House rating changes. Biggest moves are towards Dems:#FL25: Diaz-Balart (R) - Likely R to Lean R#GA06: Handel (R) - Lean R to Toss Up#MI06: Upton (R) - Likely R to Lean R#PA10: Perry (R) - Lean R to Toss Up#WA08: OPEN (R) - Toss Up to Lean D

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2018

The New York Times' Upshot finds a 3-point move towards Democrats since its September baseline numbers.

Nate Silver responded, "This is the single most terrifying bit of poll-related data for Republicans, in that Democrats made gains in a pretty diverse array of districts, which might lead one to wonder what's happening in the districts that *haven't* been polled recently."

As filmmaker Michael Moore reminds all who will listen:

IGNORE THE POLLSTERS! In this week's NY Times/Siena poll of the Senate race in Texas they reached out to 51,983 Texans. Only 800 gave them an answer! And of the 7,219 young voters (18-29 yrs old) they "polled", only 66 responded! Polls are wrong! Keep working & making calls!

— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) November 4, 2018

As we saw yesterday, the youth votes in several key states is breaking records. They are not being captured in the polls.

Democracy itself is on the line. Perhaps not only just in this country. Your actions today matter.

People on the sidewalk, at a birthday party, at the grocery store, etc., have asked my take on what will happen tonight. Nobody has seen a mid-term election quite like this. Early voting is at near-presidential levels. Will Beto win? Will Stacey? I tell them I don't know. But I do know whatever the outcome those who work hard today to get out the vote will not feel like road kill tonight. They might even feel they helped save the world.

Or helped strong women save the rest of us.




Undercover Blue 11/06/2018 06:00:00 AM

Monday, November 05, 2018

 
Drudge's Monday Night Banner

by digby


.... says it all:

Put me down for against.


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digby 11/05/2018 10:00:00 PM

 
"Enthralled by the moment and its meaning."

by digby

This piece from Roger Angell of the New Yorker says it all. If he can do it, we can all do it.

Back in 1992, I published a piece about voting at the Y on Lexington Avenue. “At the Y, nothing has changed,” I wrote:

Around the room, the machines’ shabby curtains snap open and bang shut; the vestal poll-watchers bend low over their thick volumes; and once again I have forgotten the number of my assembly district. Redirected, I sign my name above an amazing column of perfect prior replicas, in various inks: my straight A’s in civics. I get in line and, for this once, don’t mind its length or slowness. Inside at last, I flip the pleasing levers and then check my “X”s one more time; it’s all done so quickly that I linger a moment longer. . . . Then I grab the lever, record myself with a manly fling, and walk out, shriven, to go to work.

I went on to say that I’d fallen “a long way from the hot certainties of my twenties and thirties, when I would argue politics with my friends and family by the hour and the day and the night,” and fired off “burning letters to my congressman and dialled Western Union before bedtime with still another telegram to the White House. No more. I have no wish to sort out here what happened to me, what happened to us all, when our politics went onto the tube, for we know that story by heart. We are consumers of politics now, and hardly participants at all.”

Editing this piece now, before your eyes, I’d say that I like and stand behind my paean to the voting machine, whose absence I mourn each November—the pure and pearl-like oddity that so well matched the strangeness and beauty of voting. On the other hand, I could do without my hurried complaints about the massive shift of national politics from newspapers and radio onto television (the “tube,” as we called it then).

What I need to add here, in 2018, by contrast, is my reconversion from the distanced and gentlemanly 1992 Roger to something akin to the argumentative and impassioned younger me, which began with the arrival of Donald Trump in our politics and our daily lives. In a New Yorker piece posted the week before the 2016 election, I wrote that my first Presidential vote was for Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in 1944, when I was a young Air Force sergeant stationed in the Central Pacific. I went on to say that, seventy-two years later, defeating Trump made that immediate election the most important of my life. Alarmed as I was, I had no idea, of course, of the depths of the disaster that would befall us, taking away our leadership and moral standing in the world.

I am ninety-eight now, legally blind, and a pain in the ass to all my friends and much of my family with my constant rantings about the Trump debacle—his floods of lies, his racism, his abandonment of vital connections to ancient allies and critically urgent world concerns, his relentless attacks on the media, and, just lately, his arrant fearmongering about the agonizingly slow approach of a fading column of frightened Central American refugees. The not-to-mention list takes us to his scorn for the poor everywhere, his dismantling contempt for the F.B.I. and the Justice Department, and his broad ignorance and overriding failure of human response. A Democratic victory in this midterm election, in the House, at the least, will put a halt to a lot of this and prevent something much worse.

Countless friends of mine have been engaged this year in political action, but, at my age, I’m not quite up to making phone calls or ringing doorbells. But I can still vote, and I ended that 1992 piece by saying how the morning after Election Day I’d search out, in the Times, the totals in the Presidential balloting, and, “over to the right in my candidate’s column, count the millions of votes there, down to the very last number. ‘That’s me!’ ” I would whisper, “and, at the moment, perhaps feel once again the absurd conviction that that final number, the starboard digit, is something—go figure—I would still die for, if anyone cared.”

What I said I would die for I now want to live for. The quarter-century-plus since George H. W. Bush lost that election to Bill Clinton has brought a near-total change to our everyday world. Unendable wars, desperate refugee populations, a crashing climate, and a sickening flow of gun murders and massacres in schools, concert halls, churches, and temples are the abiding commonplace amid the buzz of social media, Obamacare, and #MeToo. What remains, still in place and now again before us, is voting.

What we can all do at this moment is vote—get up, brush our teeth, go to the polling place, and get in line. I was never in combat as a soldier, but now I am. Those of you who haven’t quite been getting to your polling place lately, who want better candidates or a clearer system of making yourself heard, or who just aren’t in the habit, need to get it done this time around. If you stay home, count yourself among the hundreds of thousands now being disenfranchised by the relentless parade of restrictions that Republicans everywhere are imposing and enforcing. If you don’t vote, they have won, and you are a captive, one of their prizes.

When you do go to vote on Tuesday, take a friend, a nephew, a neighbor, or a partner, and be patient when in line. Just up ahead of you, the old guy in a sailing cap, leaning on his cane and accompanied by his wife, is me, again not minding the wait, and again enthralled by the moment and its meaning.


Roger Angell, a senior editor and a staff writer, has contributed to The New Yorkersince 1944, and became a fiction editor in 1956.

digby 11/05/2018 05:00:00 PM

 
He says it's all about him --- and it is

by digby


According to this CNN poll, 70% of voters say they are sending a message to Donald Trump: 42% in opposition to him and 28% in support.

Among women, 50% are voting to send a message in opposition to Trump and 25% are in support with the rest saying he has no effect on their vote.

The gender gap cuts across lines of race and education, with non-white women (79% favor Democrats) and white women with college degrees (68% back the Democrat) breaking most heavily for the Democrats, while white men (57% Republican) and particularly white men without college degrees (65% back the Republican) are most deeply behind the GOP.

Trump has been saying at every rally that a vote for a Republican is a vote for him. It's true. That's what this is about, when you get right down to it.  70% of voters agree.

So the result tomorrow is all about him and the sycophantic toadies who have kissed his feet. They own it.


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digby 11/05/2018 03:30:00 PM

 
"Offensive is effective"

by digby

The president today:

NEW: "We have a lot of ads," Pres. Trump says when asked about controversy over anti-immigration ad. "They certainly are effective, based on the numbers that we're seeing."

"A lot of things are offensive," he says on criticism that ad is offensive. "Your questions are offensive" pic.twitter.com/rAElL01ST6

— ABC News (@ABC) November 5, 2018

He personally tweeted the disgusting piece of shit:

It is outrageous what the Democrats are doing to our Country. Vote Republican now! https://t.co/0pWiwCHGbh pic.twitter.com/2crea9HF7G

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 31, 2018

That's just the way he thinks.

O'Reilly: “Putin is a killer.”

Trump: “There are a lot of killers. We have a lot of killers. Well, you think our country is so innocent?”

A lot of people are racists.
A lot of people are anti-semites.
A lot of people are misogynists

A lot of things are fascist.

Like him.


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digby 11/05/2018 02:00:00 PM

 
This is Trump TV

by digby



They don't really even try to hide it anymore:

Sean Hannity and Fox News asserted Monday that he wasn’t going to be on stage “campaigning” with President Donald Trump at a political rally the day before Election Day — perhaps leading readers to believe he hasn’t endorsed, campaigned for or appeared on stage with GOP candidates for office and other politicians in recent years.

But the television and radio personality has repeatedly made clear that he sees himself as both a partisan operator and a media presence, endorsing and appearing with candidates for office over and over again.

Here’s a brief timeline of Hannity’s most prominent political endorsements and appearances in recent years:

On March 11, 2016, Hannity interviewed Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), then a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, at a rally in Orlando. The Orlando Sentinel recorded the event and reported: “GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz, interviews with TV-host Sean Hannity during a rally at the Faith Assembly of God church, in Orlando, Fla.” Cruz and Hannity appeared together at several campaign events in 2016, including one in February at which Hannity looked on as Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC) endorsed Cruz on stage.

ORLANDO, FL – MARCH 11: Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) speaks in a discussion with political commentator Sean Hannity during a campaign rally at Faith Assembly of God Church on March 11, 2016 in Orlando, Florida. The candidates continue to campaign before the March 15th Florida primary. (Photo by Gerardo Mora/Getty Images)

On March 18, 2016, Hannity interviewed Cruz again, this time in Arizona. Hannity aired the interview footage on his show but noted, referring to members of the audience holding “CHOOSE CRUZ” signs: “They’re here for an event that was put together by the super PAC Keep the Promise.” Cruz and Hannity spoke against a backdrop of “CHOOSE CRUZ” and “KEEP THE PROMISE” logos.

On Sept. 26, 2016, Hannity appeared in a Donald Trump campaign video, apparently without telling his bosses at Fox News ahead of time. “We were not aware of Sean Hannity participating in a promotional video and he will not be doing anything along these lines for the remainder of the election season,” a Fox spokesperson told TPM at the time.

On April 6, 2017, Hannity endorsed Amy Kremer for Congress.

On July 19, 2017, Hannity endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) for re-election. At the time, Cruz noted: “You endorsed me early in the primary when I first ran for Senate in 2012” — Here’s that tape.

On Nov. 8, 2017, Hannity endorsed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach to be governor of Kansas.

On Jan. 17, 2018, Hannity endorsed then-Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to be governor of Florida.

On June 26, 2018, Hannity headlined the 2018 Manhattan GOP Freedom Gala “in support of Chele Farley for U.S. Senate,” according to Farley’s campaign. Farley’s campaign made Hannity’s political involvement explicit: “With the federal filing deadline approaching, Hannity and the Manhattan GOP are helping to cap a strong fundraising quarter for Farley in her bid to unseat the Senate’s top obstructionist and 2020 presidential poser Kirsten Gillibrand.”

On July 2, 2018, Hannity appeared at three campaign rallies in one day in support of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and DeSantis. “We need these guys in office for us,” Hannity said while pointing to DeSantis and Gaetz, according to the Pensacola News Journal.

On Sept. 20, 2018, Hannity interviewed Trump ahead of a campaign rally in Las Vegas. He autographed “Make America Great Again” hats and threw them to fans. “I know this crowd— You ready to hear the President?” he asked rally attendees, to cheers.

Of course he's campaigning with the president today. Everyone knows it. It's absurd to even pretend otherwise. He is the president's most important supporter and one of his most influential advisers. We can see that every single night.

By the way, Rush Limbaugh wants in on this action too. He's going to be with Trump at his final rally as well.

No word on whether Alex Jones and David Duke are flying in but maybe it's going to be a big surprise.

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digby 11/05/2018 12:30:00 PM

 
Donald Trump and Scott Walker's 4.5 billion dollar grift

by digby

Remember that Foxconn deal? Trump strutting around with Scott Walker, talking about bringing thousands of high paying manufacturing jobs to Wisconsin?

Are you surprised to find out that it is a typical Trump con job?

In September of 2017, Governor Scott Walker, Republican of Wisconsin, signed a contract that would make his state the home of the first U.S. factory of Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer. The company, which is based in Taiwan and makes products for Apple, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo, among others, would build a 21.5-million-square-foot manufacturing campus, invest up to ten billion dollars in Wisconsin, and hire as many as thirteen thousand workers at an average wage of fifty-four thousand dollars a year. For Walker, whose approval had fallen to the mid-thirties after his aborted Presidential run, the deal was seen as a crucial boost to his reëlection prospects. “The Foxconn initiative looked like something that could be a hallmark of Walker’s reëlection campaign,” Charles Franklin, a professor and pollster at Marquette University Law School, told me. “He could claim a major new manufacturing presence, one that would also employ blue-collar workers in a region where blue-collar jobs are more scarce than they used to be.”

The idea of putting the plant in southeastern Wisconsin originated in April of 2017, during a helicopter ride President Donald Trump took with Reince Priebus, a Wisconsin native and Trump’s chief of staff at the time. Flying over Kenosha, Priebus’s home town, they passed the empty lot that once held the American Motors Corporation plant. “Why is all that land vacant?” Trump asked, according to an account Priebus gave to a Milwaukee television station. “That land should be used.” When Terry Gou, Foxconn’s chairman, came to the White House to discuss Foxconn’s desire to build a U.S. factory, Trump suggested the site in Kenosha. It wasn’t big enough, but the town of Mt. Pleasant, fifteen miles north, pursued the company aggressively, and was ultimately selected by Foxconn in October of 2017.

The project moved quickly. Last June, a groundbreaking ceremony was held in Mt. Pleasant to celebrate a political triumph for Trump and Walker. After depositing a couple scoops of earth with a gold-plated shovel, Trump called Foxconn’s future campus “the eighth wonder of the world” and hinted that its promise of well-paying manufacturing jobs could be a model for other states in the Midwest, which were, like Wisconsin, crucial to Trump’s narrow Electoral College victory in the 2016 election. “I recommended Wisconsin, in this case,” Trump said. “And I’ll be recommending Ohio, and I’ll be recommending Pennsylvania, and I’ll be recommending Iowa.”

But as the public has become aware of the spiralling costs for these jobs, the Foxconn deal has become something of a political liability for Walker, particularly among voters outside of southeastern Wisconsin. Those costs include taxpayer subsidies to the company totalling more than $4.5 billion, the largest subsidy for a foreign corporation in American history. Since Wisconsin already exempts manufacturing companies from paying taxes, Foxconn, which generated a hundred and fifty-eight billion dollars in revenue last year, will receive much of this subsidy in direct cash payments from taxpayers. Depending on how many jobs are actually created, taxpayers will be paying between two hundred and twenty thousand dollars and more than a million dollars per job. According to the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, a nonpartisan agency that provides economic analysis to the Wisconsin state legislature, the earliest citizens might see a return on their Foxconn investment is in 2042.

Walker is in trouble and this has a lot to do with why. No one should be surprised. He ran through tens of millions in donations for his presidential race before the primaries even started, and he was the first one to drop out. "Fiscal responsibility" isn't his strong suit.

I can't tell you how happy it will make me to see this guy defeated.

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digby 11/05/2018 11:00:00 AM

 
Yes I'm nervous. I'd be a fool not to be!

by digby



My Salon column this morning:

On the Monday before the election two years ago, Democrats were merrily laying in their bottles of champagne for the inevitable Tuesday celebration. It had been the weirdest campaign in memory, maybe all of history, with the first woman nominee facing a bizarre unfiltered celebrity who might as well have landed from outer space. Everyone was optimistic, even a little bit wired from the overdose of surreality, and anxious to get back to normal.

I had my morning-after Salon column almost entirely written before the returns came in. Having watched nearly all of his speeches and rallies and seeing the effect he had on his followers, I was concerned about what Trump had stirred up. But nonetheless, I too succumbed to certainty in the last days even though I could see that the polls were uncomfortably close. It was hard not to. Being a generally positive, rational person it simply seemed impossible that the United States of America would elect this unqualified demagogue to the most important job in the world.

Obviously, I had to re-write that piece in the middle of the night, which my editor published under the headline, "A nation gone wrong in a world gone crazy."

Democratic voters reeled for a while, but nobody withdrew to their corners to feel sorry for themselves for long. Gobsmacked by this unthinkable result, people decided to resist this extremist president and soon picked themselves up and took to the streets, created organizations, convened meetings, donated money and filed to run for office. This surge of political involvement started immediately after the election and has continued at full steam ever since. It has been impressive.

The final polls show Democrats probably with at least the edge they need to take over the majority in the House, which was always the primary goal. The Senate map was always daunting so I don't think anyone placed their hopes there. But they didn't need to --- one House of Congress can stop the GOP agenda in its tracks and provide the oversight that the president's accomplices in the current Congress have refused to provide.  So, one would think that the Democrats would be cautiously optimistic and somewhat energized, knowing that their hard work stands a good chance of paying off tomorrow night.

I don't know about you, but I don't know even one person who feels anything but anxiety. Every Democratic voter I see around me, in real life, on social media and television is a nervous wreck. Saturday Night Live caught the vibe perfectly with a skit last Saturday:



According to a  a poll conducted by YouGov  the political environment is making Democrats so apprehensive that they are 50 percent more likely than Republicans to say they’re “eating their feelings” meaning they are pigging out from stress. They report they are also drinking more at a 2-to-1 ratio to their GOP counterparts and working out excessively, which isn't necessarily healthy either. NBC news reported:

“I’m seeing some people so stressed at the moment they're doing two, even three soul cycle classes at day,” Dr. Navya Mysore, a primary care doctor, tells NBC News BETTER. “Exercise is good for you, but too much is not. You [risk] dehydration and your body needs time to rest and rejuvenate.”

Meanwhile, therapists are treating what some are calling "Trump anxiety disorder"  among people who are alarmed by the president's doomsday rhetoric, such as this one from last July:

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2018

(Trump voters are upset too, mostly because of liberals' dislike of their president, which I examined in this Salon piece right after the 2016 election.)

It's natural for Democrats to be fretful about the election after the trauma of the Donald Trump upset. Nobody wants to make the mistake of ever being so sure of themselves again and have to deal with the PTSD that followed. And with all the shennanigans around vote suppression and foreign interference and structural imbalance that makes it necessary for Democrats to have millions of more votes just to eke out a small win, you'd be a fool to take anything for granted.

Wanting to put a check on Trump is the only rational response to what we've seen over the past two years. From defending Neo-Nazis and sundry right wing crazies to destroying the global framework that's kept the world from catastrophic war for 70 years to rampant corruption and cozying up to the world's worst authoritarian dictators, it's been a living nightmare every single day. The non-stop reflexive lying and bragging and blaming alone is enough to drive you crazy.

But even with all that, as terrible as it is, I don't believe it's the whole story. I think people are also anxious and fearful about this election because it will tell us, once and for all, how many of our fellow Americans have truly bought into this madness.

I think we all assume that in 2016 there were Trump voters who simply couldn't stand Clinton and while they knew Trump was appalling, they just couldn't pull the lever for her. And it's fair to conclude that there were quite a few Republicans and Independents who thought his campaign persona was just an act, that he'd become presidential once in office. The press certainly did.

What I think has many of us especially frightened is that we are seeing huge turnout for a midterm election, possibly even hitting presidential levels when all the votes are counted. And we don't know if that huge surge means more of us or more of them.

The polls show that these races are very close! What if these past two years of Trump haven't opened more people's eyes to his unfitness for the office but have actually persuaded many of those formerly reluctant Trump voters that his act is a winner? How can we be sure there aren't new voters out there who believe that his terrible, horrible, very bad presidency really is the triumph he says it is? It's terrifying to contemplate.

That's what wakes me up at night with a start from a dream in which the whole country is a sea of red MAGA hats and the blue wave is just a trickle on the margins.  A little neurotic? Maybe. But when you see those ecstatic cult-of-personality rallies and remember that they currently control all three branches of government, it's not insane to worry. Let's just hope that after tomorrow, we can finally find some peace.

Oh what am I saying? No matter what happens, Donald Trump will still be president. But maybe we will get to feel a little better that he isn't taking even more of the country all the way down the rabbit hole.

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digby 11/05/2018 09:00:00 AM