I’m In a Mood

by 9:44 pm. It has 0 Comments.

And I probably best should not share it here. I’m just deeply pessimistic.





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Open Thread: An ‘Angry (But Positive!) Mob’ — of Women Voters

by 9:08 pm. It has 36 Comments.

From the Washington Post, “Anti-Trump fervor fuels a new movement aimed squarely at winning elections”:

JACKSON TOWNSHIP, Ohio — President Trump’s political nightmare, a mother of two in a custom campaign polo, bounded down the driveway like a sweepstakes winner. She had just chatted up a shirtless Republican out to mow his lawn, and he liked what she said.

“He’s with me on the cost of health care and preexisting conditions,” Lorraine Wilburn, a first-time Democratic candidate for the Ohio statehouse, told her 11-year-old son, Finn. “He said he would take a look at me.”

Finn was used to this sort of enthusiasm, ever since his mother started attending liberal activist meetings after the 2016 election. He had learned not to be surprised if Mom started sounding like a comic book heroine akin to Wonder Woman, whose image she keeps on her phone…

Thin margins of error have not discouraged the new foot soldiers of the Democratic resistance. They don’t cover their faces with bandannas, speak of socialist revolution or get lost in debates about the best model for Medicare expansion.

Instead, many of them juggle campaign events with school commutes and soccer practice. They leave the kids with their husbands to march, come out of retirement to register voters and form close bonds with neighbors who were strangers when Hillary Clinton was the presumptive president. An aspiring blue wave with a decidedly pink hue, they are women defined by a desire to atone for their relative inaction in 2016.

“People are making social connections that they really, really like,” said Abby Karp, an organizer for Swing Left in North Carolina, who works days as a dean at a private school in Greensboro. “I don’t even have a Facebook page anymore. I have a political page. I don’t know what my cousin is doing. I know what canvass is coming up.”…

ActBlue, a central conduit for Democratic campaign contributions, has recorded 4.5 million contributors so far in the 2018 cycle, with about 61 percent of the money coming from women. That compares with 1.5 million donations in the 2014 cycle, when about 52 percent of the money came from women.

“Coming together is the antidote. It’s the antithesis of the divisiveness,” said Lauren Friedman, an Ohio state Senate candidate and mother of three, who started organizing with Wilburn in Canton days after Trump’s election. “Even us just going and canvassing — that is making a change.”…

Michelle Goldberg, in the NYTimes, on “A Cure for Political Despair”:

… There is, I find, only one thing that soothes my galloping anxiety, and that is talking to women who are actually doing the work of campaigning. The people who are knocking on doors and organizing rallies tend to be much more cheerful and confident than those who spend too much time on Twitter obsessing over each new poll.
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Monday Evening Open Thread: Be of Good Cheer!

by 6:22 pm. It has 202 Comments.


.

Maybe all we have left is sarcasm, but at least it’s an infinitely renewable resource…


Open Thread: A Little Fun

by 6:22 pm. It has 19 Comments.

I’m just beat. I’m also leaving town for a while, so hopefully, I’ll find my second wind. I am simultaneously worried about Nov 6 and so very, very tired of it all.

How about you? How are you hanging in there?

Open thread (which I’m sure after  7 hours of dead air, someone will big foot in 10 minutes)😉





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Because Why Not

by 11:13 am. It has 143 Comments.

Saw this a while back at my favorite fishmonger (New Deal Seafood on Cambridge St. in Cambridge, for you Hub of the Universe Juicers)…


Which, inevitably, evoked this:

Meanwhile, Tikka asks, are you ready?

Early voting opened in my town today (yeah — MA does it by city and town)…

Just sayin.

Open thread.


Don’t fear HSAs

by 8:32 am. It has 39 Comments.

In comments last week, Mayken expressed a fairly common sentiment on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)

My husband’s job is offering a HSA and he’s actually considering it. Scares the crap out of me frankly. As a person with a few chronic issues including asthma and a ridiculous number of meds plus a child under 10 at home, I can’t see how it can be good for us.

HSAs and High Deductible Health Plans (HDHP) to which they are attached to are not inherently scary.  They may not be the optimal plan for everyone but they are a logical choice for some groups of people.

An HSA is a savings account that has incredible tax advantages:

  • Deposits are tax free
  • Growth is tax free
  • Withdrawals are tax free if used for qualified medical expenses

An HSA can only be opened if an individual is covered by a HDHP which is a plan that has a deductible of at least $1,350/$2,700 (individual/family) with a maximum out of pocket of no more than $6,750/$13,500 (individual/family).  A HDHP covers nothing before the deductible is met EXCEPT for the key no-cost sharing preventative services (mammograms, flu shots etc).  There are high deductible plans which are not qualified high deductible plans as those plans will cover some services pre-deductible.  The actuarial value of a HDHP ranges from 60% (Bronze) to 86% (Platinum) .  It is more a benefit design and tax designation than an actuarial value designation.

The HDHP/HSA theory of change is that old style plans with low or no deductibles encouraged people to be price insensitive and to be willing to say yes to anything as they bore no immediate cost.  Shifting the plan design so that an insured individual or family is on the hook for a significant chunk of the initial because of the deductible would lead to better shopping for either lower priced care for the same services or the elimination of low value services entirely.

That is not the reality.  Brot-Goldberg et al found that HDHP/HSA plans led to a significant reduction in spending.  That reduction was solely through the indiscriminate reduction in services and not through better shopping or elimination of low value or wasteful care.  Haviland et al have found that HDHPs don’t produce snap-back spending three years out. We’re bad shoppers of complex goods and services where being wrong has potentially infinite costs.

From here, the theory of change extends a bit.  Using a lifecycle model where most people are mostly healthy/cheap when young (pregnancies excluded), the idea is that people would build up big balances in HSAs during their 20s, 30s and 40s and then use those balances to pay high deductibles in their 50s and 60s.  This is problematic for people who either hit their out of pocket maxes in most/all years at which point the HSA mainly acts as a tax washer on money and the HDHP acts as a permanent income tax based on disease burden/bad luck.  It is also problematic for people who can’t put significant net sums into an HSA because they don’t earn enough.  On average, it probably works but there are a lot of people left behind.

However, that is theory and general population insight;  let’s talk specifics.

HDHPs/HSAs can be a good deal for some people.  

The calculation people need to make is whether or not the Premiums + Deductible (realized)  -Tax Advantages (Deductible spend (realized)) is greater or less than a similar calculation for other plans.  Companies will often offer HDHPs with lower employee premium shares than non-HDHPs so there are plenty of situations where an HDHP/HSA combination can make sense.

However, even if the math makes sense over the course of a year, there are some caveats.

  • Credit/consumption shifting has to happen in the first year
    • Initial services require cash payment
    • First few months of the year are likely to be all cash if you modest chronic conditions (asthma, diabetes etc)
  • You see full contracted price
  • More record keeping

HDHP/HSA are not panaceas.  They are also not anathema.

Depending on your circumstances, risk tolerance and your ability to float a fairly large payment out of regular cash flow or other assets, they can make sense.





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On the Road and In Your Backyard

by 5:00 am. It has 19 Comments.

Good Morning All,

On The Road and In Your Backyard is a weekday feature spotlighting reader submissions. From the exotic to the familiar, please share your part of the world, whether you’re traveling or just in your locality. Share some photos and a narrative, let us see through your pictures and words. We’re so lucky each and every day to see and appreciate the world around us!

Submissions from commenters are welcome at tools.balloon-juice.com

==

To start out this week, a great double-treat from Le Comte. I’m so excited!

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Monday Morning Open Thread: All GOTV, All the Time

by 4:55 am. It has 98 Comments.


Late Night Open Thread: Clamor

by 11:45 pm. It has 14 Comments.

Gail Collins, in the NYTimes, “A Whole Lot of Babbling Going On”:

… Elections are coming and the president is all over the place, holding rallies and talking about his priorities. Like immigration and taxes and reminding people that he won the 2016 election.

“Remember — we won Florida,” he told an audience. … “In Tennessee, I remember a great Congressman Duncan. … He said, sir, they’re coming from the hills, the valleys, people that haven’t voted for a long time because they didn’t want to vote for the people that were running for office. And they’ve got Trump banners and Trump hats and Trump tattoos. …”…

There are several lessons to be gained by watching four or five Trump rally speeches in rapid succession. Well, not enough that you’d actually want to do it. That’s what we’re here for…

Trump always brags about the size of the crowds. He claimed there was an overflow of 44,000 people outside a rally in Missouri, which, a local newspaper noted, would have meant a quarter of the city’s population had gone to the event. In Ohio, he said that if the rally had been for “one of the normal presidents,” the audience would be about “300 people.”

Back when we were normal, Barack Obama got crowds of up to 100,000 and people would get so excited they’d faint. At which point Obama would mildly suggest that someone bring over “a little water and some juice.” Sigh.

But to be fair, that was not during midterm campaigns. It’s tough going from city to city, day after day, trying to rally some excitement for the local congressional candidates. Trump has been super dedicated. And only a deep cynic would believe it’s just because he enjoys standing in front of a huge crowd and making the whole thing about him…

Look on the bright side: The more noise Trump makes right now, the more those low-info voters outside his Deplorable Base remember which party is responsible for his embarrassing shit-shows. We get our blue wave, the man’s probably gonna start trying to claim the credit. Nobody debases the GOP like Donald Trump! Every live rally broadcast encourages more Democratic turnout!


Sunday Night Open Thread

by 10:38 pm. It has 47 Comments.

Just curious what you all do to help the people around you vote?





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Basic Science For Global Warming

by 7:12 pm. It has 51 Comments.

In order to understand discussions of global warming, you need a few basic scientific facts. I’m stripping them down so they’re easy to remember.

Thermodynamics is an imposing word that means “movement of heat.” Thermodynamics fundamentally establishes boundaries on what chemical reactions can take place and what other kinds of work can be done. Facts derived from thermodynamics cannot be bent or gotten around. Heat is a type of energy, so I’ll use the two words interchangeably here.

Fact #1: Carbon dioxide and water result from the production of energy by burning fossil fuels. In order to make them into something else, energy must be supplied. Not only that, but more energy must be supplied than was produced by burning, sometimes a lot more.

Any claim that a process can turn carbon dioxide back into fuels, or that water can supply hydrogen as a fuel, should be met with the question “Where does the energy come from?” If the answer is non-carbon power, the claim may be worth pursuing. If the claim says nothing about energy sources, more information is needed.

Fact #2: Separating something from a mixture requires energy. The lower the concentration, the more energy is required.

Carbon dioxide is about 400 parts per million in the atmosphere, or 0.04%. That is a very low concentration. Any claim of taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere should be met with that same question, “Where does the energy come from?”

Windmills get their energy from wind, solar cells from sunlight, and plants and algae from sunlight. Some of the schemes involving them may seem to counter Facts #1 and #2, but careful energy tracing will show that they do not.

Electricity and hydrogen, while clean in their immediate area, are only as clean as their sources. They are energy carriers rather than energy sources – they put a source of energy, say a nuclear reactor, into a form you can tuck into your car or home.

That’s all the thermodynamics you need to understand most of global warming.

Video from National Geographic.


Calling Cheryl and Adam, Impending Nuclear Holocaust Edition

by 6:14 pm. It has 78 Comments.

Somehow I missed this kinda important story this weekend:

Donald Trump has confirmed the US will leave an arms control treaty with Russia dating from the cold war that has kept nuclear missiles out of Europe for three decades.

“We’ll have to develop those weapons,” the president told reporters in Nevada after a rally. “We’re going to terminate the agreement and we’re going to pull out.”

Trump was referring to the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF), which banned ground-launch nuclear missiles with ranges from 500km to 5,500km. Signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, it led to nearly 2,700 short- and medium-range missiles being eliminated, and an end to a dangerous standoff between US Pershing and cruise missiles and Soviet SS-20 missiles in Europe.

No prizes for guessing whose fingerprints are all over this measured, well thought out decision:

The Guardian reported on Friday that Trump’s third national security adviser, John Bolton, a longstanding opponent of arms control treaties, was pushing for US withdrawal.

There are arguments! There always are.  In this case, it’s an allegation that Russia is violating the agreement w. a cruise missile development program, and that China is looming, outside the treaty.  I’m way out of the zone of what passes for my expertise here, so I’ll leave it to Cheryl and/or Adam to weigh in on these claims. Here I’ll just note both claims have the look of assertions that are drummed into service to fill in the gaps marked “pretextual verbiage needed here” on the form providing cover for what one wants to do anyway.

That view is strengthened, I think, by the fact that there isn’t a single arms control treaty these bloody incompetents have ever liked.

Bolton and the top arms control adviser in the National Security Council (NSC), Tim Morrison, are also opposed to the extension of another major pillar of arms control, the 2010 New Start agreement with Russia, which limited the number of deployed strategic warheads on either side to 1,550. That agreement, signed by Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev, then president of Russia, is due to expire in 2021.

The early reviews for this buried, weekend news dump are what you’d expect:

Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said: “This is a colossal mistake. Russia gets to violate the treaty and Trump takes the blame.

“I doubt very much that the US will deploy much that would have been prohibited by the treaty. Russia, though, will go gangbusters.”

Old friend Mikhail Gorbachev adds:

Gorbachev, 87, wondered aloud: “Is it really that hard to understand that rejecting these agreements is, as the people say, not the work of a great mind.”

Concur

Gorbachev called Trump’s decision “a mistake” and “very strange.”

“Do they really not understand in Washington what this can lead to?” he asked.

Concur.

And doubly, trebly concur with this:

“All agreements aimed at nuclear disarmament and limiting nuclear weapons must be preserved, for the sake of preserving life on earth,” he added, per the Times.

This is the true measure of the GOP betrayal of America.  They knew who Donald Trump was long before he became President. They knew — hell the candidates, Cruz and Graham and the rest said so out loud — that he was the last person you’d want near the nuclear button.  And yet when the choice came down to tax cuts and an anti-abortion SC vs the safety and security of the United States…

They all got in line.  We, and the world, are in ever deeper peril as a result.

Oh — and one more thing? How is this not a huge story? Republican maladministration wants Europe back on a hair trigger?  I’m looking at the New York Times home page and it isn’t there.  Our media iz not lerning.

Image: Simone del Tintore (attr.), Still Life with Mushrooms, Fruit, a Basket of Flowers and a Cat, before 1708.


Point & Mock Open Thread

by 2:20 pm. It has 88 Comments.

Come the revolution, the ersatz ‘rock star’ and his fan the ersatz ‘president’ can get together in their obscurity and keep each other company whining about the fickleness of fame.


Stacey Abrams vs. the Revanchist Racist

by 10:25 am. It has 110 Comments.

… “I have a hard time imagining this is anything but an intentional effort,” said Mr. Laven, who teaches political science at Kennesaw State University. “I can’t imagine this is just pure incompetence. Everyone knew how serious people have been around here about getting out the vote.”…

Georgia ranks 43rd out of 50 in election integrity, according to one of Mr. Shufeldt’s measures, which grades things like state election administration and expert opinion surveys.

That ranking is emblematic of almost a decade of fights between election rights groups and Mr. Kemp. Questions have long swirled around Mr. Kemp’s office about issues including voter data security and whether Georgia’s voting machines were fit for modern elections…

From The Root, “Neither Voter Suppression Nor Being Called ‘Coon’ and the N-Word Will Stop Black Georgia From Voting”:

Waynesboro, Georgia—Sarah Jenkins has long had to deal with simmering community tensions. She owns a small business in a white part of town that caters to senior citizens and people with mental disabilities, an arrangement many of her neighbors frown upon.

But since “Ms. Jenkins,” as folks like to call her, became a big supporter of Stacey Abrams—who is trying to become the first black woman to become governor anywhere in the nation—those tensions have boiled over. They’ve grown especially ugly since Abrams won the Democratic nomination in her quest to lead Georgia.
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Sunday Morning Garden Chat: Happy Flowers

by 4:42 am. It has 78 Comments.

From laudably determined commentor Watergirl:

I didn’t get to garden much this year because of my broken ankle, but at least I had some happy flowers to look at through the windows and from the porch.

The windflowers were my happy surprise this spring. I had planted the windflower bulbs last fall, not knowing for sure what they would look like. They really popped, and they are such happy flowers — I am planting more this year.

This was the best year ever for my hydrangeas. Not sure if that’s because we got a lot of rain early or if they finally came into their own after being in place for several years, but either way, I’ll take it! For all those weeks I was stuck inside with my broken ankle. I cold at least look out the french doors and see some happy flowers on the side of my house.

It was also a great year for my mandevilla. I overwinter it every year, but this year I put it on the opposite side of the house so I could see it every time I looked out the window. (see ankle, broken) You can’t quite tell from the photo, but the flowers start out the palest of pale pinks, and then turn white with the yellow centers once they open fully. Pale, pale pink flowers are some of my favorites.


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