I must admit to taking more than a bit of pleasure from the charges of irregularities in Washington’s Republican presidential caucus… and our local GOPologists muddled efforts to defend their party’s honor.
I cut my nasty, sharp blogger teeth covering the 2004 gubernatorial election contest, and while I wouldn’t mind sinking them into the pasty white necks of my friends over at (u)SP, they seem to be doing a pretty good job rending their own flesh all by their lonesome. First Eric expresses dismay over the tone of Mike Huckabee’s campaign, and his “scorched earth policy of throwing bare-knuckle punches at a state party and a state party chair.” (Heaven forfend!) And now Pudge dismisses the whole hoohah, arguing that the caucuses were so chaotic and mismanaged that the result “literally means nothing at all.” (Gee, didn’t I read something like that somewhere before?)
Well of course Mike Huckabee (and I’m guessin’ the apostles of Ron Paul) suspect error and/or fraud in Saturday’s caucus… such suspicions are part of the Republican Party’s DNA. Hell, Pudge’s own description of the process is far from reassuring; if this had been a general election in which officials simply called the race for the Democrat with 13% of ballots left uncounted, you can bet dollars to donuts that both he and Eric would be crying foul at the evil Democratic machine. But this wasn’t a general election, it was a caucus, and as such, perception is at least as meaningful as the ultimate delegate allocation. Luke Esser called the election for McCain on Saturday night because that was the headline McCain needed in the papers Sunday morning. Even Pudge understands this, though he clearly fails to understand (or admit) it’s meaning…
This is clear if you understand the process. The results were released just so that the party could make some news. They have no meaning.
Because… um… in politics, making news has no meaning. Uh-huh.
Back in 2004, when talk radio was calling for a revote and the EFF’s Bob Williams was repeatedly demanding that Dean Logan be jailed, I argued that errors occur in every election, and that the error rate in that one was well within the statistical boundaries described in the scholarly literature… an argument to which Stefan responded by accusing me of aiding and abetting a criminal cover up. So forgive my amusement at the sight of Republicans eating their own with accusations of election fraud. And forgive Huckabee for being so suspicious of a Washington state Republican establishment that has proven itself so cavalier and nakedly partisan on issues of election integrity.
check out this little gem from the comment boards on postman’s blog at the seattle times. there are a number of others elsewhere from people claiming to have been at the caucuses that paint a very similar picture. amazing.
posted by “BrianD”
11:09 PM, Feb 10, 2008
My wife is one who got this tempest in a teapot boiling. As a true believer in the Republican Party, she was pretty upset to be shut out of the county convention process by the sneaky, domineering precinct committee officer who engineered an exclusively McCain slate of delegates despite the diverse makeup of the precinct attendees. The four delegates and three of the four alternates came from the seven McCain supporters on the list of potential delegates. The Huckabee and Paul supporters were glossed over. Nobody got an opportunity to speak on behalf of themselves or their preferred candidates. She asked what was going on, and the guy simply left the building. She complained to the head of the district caucus, but only got an offer to be added as a potential alternate delegate. She was so excited and pleased to be able to participate in the process until all this happened. She complained to Huckabee’s man, the Rev. Fuiten by email, and to other officials as well. She’s an angel, but Hell hath no fury like a women scorned.
this page showing county by county results at MSNBC is just classic. it says it updates every five minutes, so be sure to refresh the page in your browser!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228678
I got up early this morning just so I could see what Goldy had to say about Caucus-gate. Josh Marshall, at TalkingPointsMemo.com, is covering this, too.
If there’s any justice is the world, the whole nation will soon be abuzz with talk about how the GOP stole the vote.
This is a national news story, but the PI and Times seem oddly oblivious to it. The WA GOP has a demonstrated record of cheating and lying when they don’t like the outcome of a vote. At least this time we can sit back and chuckle while they fight amongst themselves. Dan Evans must wonder what in the world happened to his party.
The following is from Pudge, a blogger on Sound Politics:
“People from all over the media, from Josh Marshall to Tim Russert, and Mike Huckabee, are talking about the party declaring a winner, whether it was too soon, and so on. But what the party said about the results literally means nothing at all.
This is clear if you understand the process. The results were released just so that the party could make some news. They have no meaning.
The first thing to understand is that people do not always vote by presidential preference.”
You see in the GOP world, votes don’t really matter, because people don’t really vote for who they want. I guess that’s why it’s up to the party to make a decision for them. They’re so paranoid they don’t even trust their own party members.
Gee, Esser, if the results don’t mean anything, then why the rush to call the election for McCain with over 13% of the votes not counted?
The hilarious thing about all of this is that Rossi’s entire platform is that, despite the lack of any evidence, the 2004 election was “stolen” from him. Yet the WSRP is perfectly happy to take a huge dump all over their own voters just so the party poo-bahs can get their favored outcome. Just how much does the GOP care about election integrity if their willing to act so despicably in their own caucus.
The Republican party is supported by lots of good, decent people who want the best for America. But the party itself is run by a bunch of thugs and criminals. If they’re not stealing elections (from their own supporters!), they’re stealing from the treasury (Cunningham, Ney, Delay, Doolittle, Renzi, Stevens, Young, Abramoff, Griles, Reed, Safavian, etc) or acting like sexual deviants (Foley, Vitter, Craig, Giuliani, Allen, etc). It’s pathetic.
This is disgusting. This kind of electoral malficence is expected in dictatorships. I think even Saddam Hussein had fairer elections than the one run by the WSRP on Saturday.
Miss Ya G Man ! I still think Luke is Bryan Styble Little step brother !
The Wash. State Republican “over-reaction” to the 2004 Governor’s election had a lot to do with turning THIS southern-born & reared, Eagle-Scout, Evangelical Protestant into a radicalized Democrat. It’s one thing to want a fair election (really, 99% of us do, Democrats and Republicans alike). It’s quite another to try to allege criminal conspiracy over a statistically insigificant counting problems in a process dominated by volunteer and low-paid clerical workers.
AI @ 6 said it very well, he beat me to the rest of my points by a half-hour or so.
Mike @ 1 — This goes hand in hand with the tyranny-of-the-majority process Richard Pope and I discuss in extended colloquy (earlier thread).
Tyranny works both ways. If Huckabee can assemble working majorities out of his plurality plus dissident delegate shares outside King County (where 80% or more of the state convention votes reside), he can dominate most national delegate selections.
He has a good shot at forging a ruling coalition out of the 75% non-McCain delegates within King County.
Upshot: Huckabee can still be King!
It’s always “fraud” when you don’t like the results.
Rs called 2004 Rossi Fraud
Ds called 2000 Bush Fraud
Hmmmm…perhaps it’s just a tad POLITICAL???
@10: Perhaps it is always fraud – but the 2000 election (in which Gore won the popular vote) would have gone to gore if they had recounted Florida. the Supreme court overruled the State and decided not to recount.
In the 2004 election a republican USAA decided (after an investigation) there was NO evidence of fraud – and the republicans fussed so much here that they got him fired.
Now this same republican party stand accused of voting irregularities and not counting the votes.
I think the word is HYPOCRISY – not fraud. I also notice that Huckabee is comparing the Wash. State Republican party with the USSR. I am embarassed for the Kremlin.
Lesser (short for Luke Esser) is the perfect republican boss –
“We don’t need no stinkin’ vote counts!”
check out this link of huckabee explaining how he loves the Washington State republicans:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/n.....e_is_l.php
Re-caucus! Re-caucus! Re-caucus!
I have to say: Piper warned us about this election. He explained how civil things were at the republican caucus and how they did things DIFFERENTLY.
We just didn’t understand HOW differently. Democracy is messy – and republicans really don’t like messes or democracy.
grassroots McCain video,The Audacity of Gloom (I see it as The Opposite of Hope)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gwqEneBKUs
http://www.youtube.com/user/Election08
“Flexible Counting methods” seems to have reached epidemic proportions within the Republican Party:
Remember me posting a while back that the DJIA has performed worse under Bush in the past quarter-century? Compare (numbers as of the market close on Friday 08Feb08):
Reagan: + 135.13% (8 years)
Bush I + 45.57% (4 years)
Clinton + 225.37% (8 years)
Bush II + 15.06% (7 years)
Over the seven years of the Bush administration, the DJIA has barely kept pace with inflation, despite considerable “propping up” in the past few weeks by large drops in the “discount rate” by the Fed, and the cooperation of a Democratic Congress towards enacting a tax rebate for Americans. But even with that help, a couple of more days like last Fridays (65+ point drops in the dow), and the DJIA will actually be in NEGATIVE territory during Bush’s Presidency.
So, what steps do the “Financial Republicans” (those who seem to really control the Party) take to salvage at least some shred of the Bush legacy? Why, they change the DJIA:
NEWS ITEM: “NEW YORK – Bank of America Corp. and Chevron Corp. will replace Honeywell International Inc. and Altria Group Inc. on the Dow Jones industrial average next week, Dow Jones & Co. said Monday….”
Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23110640/
Now, I know that the makeup of the DJIA has changed from time-to-time. But the timing of this move, and the companies being changed, seems suspicious to me. You remove one company from the most troubled areas of our economy: high-technology & manufacturing (Hewlit-Packard), and you add instead an oil company (Chevron) and one of the few finance companies apparantly not affected much by the sub-prime loan problems (Bank of America). You do so ten months before the election, so that any resulting changes make it appear that the DJIA is “on the upswing”, which has to be good for the incumbent political party.
In fairness, “Dow Jones said it will make mathematical changes to the way it computes the value of the index before Feb. 19 so that the change in components will not affect the index’s level.” (Ibid). Well, perhaps not immediately. But as I said, if you take out two declining stocks and substitute two which are having very good years, then the “trend” will still be upwards – even though the economy might, overall, be stagnant or even getting worse.
I’ve also heard comments that, at some point, the CPI was also changed to “factor out volatile commodities” such as price increases in oil and food. I don’t have any details, I’m still looking for that. But it might well explain why the rate of inflation in the Seattle area is pegged at 4.6% last year, and less in the previous few years, although my own experience has shown that my own monthly expenses (housing, utilities, gas, groceries, etc.) have gone up at leat 1/3 over the past two years. Anybody trying to buy a house over the past three+ years would have noticed at least a 100% increase in housing costs over the previous periods. Of course, working wages (union contracts, goverment employees, etc.) are often tied to the CPI, but CEO profits don’t seem to have any “ties” at all.
I Told You
Repricans aside, this just illustrates why the Caucus system AND mail-in ballots are both bad ideas.
Th secret ballot is the core of our system. Caususes are easily manipulated. Mail in ballots undercut the campaign’s ability to campaign and offer obvious opportunities for ballot stuffing.
See! Trickle-down really does work. Fascism from the top of the pyramid has percolated to the caucus level. The Repub’s really sucked the CAUCus big time.
One point on the disarray of WA Republicans can be seen by comparing the suspended campaigns of Romney and Edwards.
Jon Edwards’ suspension of campaign led his Democratic caucus attenders to pick Clinton or Obama as a second choice; none were selected for Edwards, and only 1% of caucus delegates to the next level are uncommitted. That’s 99% of delegates supporting a candidate still in the campaign.
By contrast, although Romney had suspended his campaign, he received 17% of the caucus delegates. And 12% of delegates were uncommitted. That’s close to 1/3 of the caucus-selected delegates unwilling to vote for a still-running candidate — add to that another 21% voting for Ron Paul, and you’ve got over 50% of the party of Party Unity, and that’s not even getting to the question of whether McCain or Huckabee “won” the winner-take-all caucus with about 25% of total delegates, and 50% of their party faithful unwilling to choose either of them.
It’s not hard to understand. They don’t respect elections, voters, or the rule of law. They are incompetent managers and cutthroat cheaters. What else can we expect?
BTW, enjoy the second Bush Recession of the 21st century.
“Back in 2004, when talk radio was calling for a revote and the EFF’s Bob Williams was repeatedly demanding that Dean Logan be jailed, I argued that errors occur in every election, and that the error rate in that one was well within the statistical boundaries described in the scholarly literature…”
A caucus is not an election.
I don’t really care either way, but Huckabee is just grandstanding. Primaries are about the parties….
And be careful casting those stones Democrats…. Obama is streaking ahead in the delegate count, but it doesn’t matter becuase the super delegates are going to select the Democrat candidate….
16 SJ
“Mail in ballots…offer obvious opportunities for ballot stuffing. ”
Well, something so “obvious” should surely have been exploited over the decades that mail-in balloting has been available widely. Perhaps you could regale us with some evidence of such stuffing. Or don’t you have any?
because
@21 Daddy Love
No, I do not have evidence BUT the phenomenon is new. As one example, there is nothing to prevent a union or church from having a voter’s breakfast where friendly folks go around assisting the pancake eaters.
As i understand it, it would even be legal for a church or union ot offer to request ballots for its members.
The caucus system is worse.
@2
I’m just starting on my morning coffee so I took me a minute to get what you were pointing out. Very classy on the part of the Republicans.
The Dem’s on the other hand did it right.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228626
What goes around comes around. After no doubt sexually assaulting children for years another democrat is finally caught.
Another democrat gets caught with little boys. How cute. What is it about being a democrat that makes one think it’s okay to have sex with children?
http://www.examiner.com/a-1207.....n_Boy.html
Of course, if you read the article the political party is omitted.
Hmmmm…not a peep so far in this thread from The Piper, after all his previous blather about how so much more organized, ethical and dignified the Republicans are in running thier caucuses.
@25
Republican’s seem to do that sort of thing far more often than Democrats. And when it happens we, unlike Republicans, don’t try to cover it up.
Plus, you’re way off topic.
“If the Government is a car setting out to give every one a ride to work, then for 40 years the Republicans have been puncturing the tires, pouring sand in the gas tank, stealing the distributor cap, and, whenever they can get their hands on the wheel, driving it straight into the nearest ditch and then, pointing to the wreckage as the tow truck backs up to it, saying, See, this proves that people were meant to walk. And they do this so that they don’t have to chip in on gas.”
http://atrios.blogspot.com/200.....7056958617
@26
I almost feel sorry for the guy.
23 There are plenty of folks who claim that our two-party system basically sucks. There have been several times in the course of my life when what got deposited in the Oval Office at the end of the process served as evidence of that contention.
How I, a true liberal, differ from most of you divisive liberal partisans is I stand for what is right, no matter who is involved. It’s funny, when Guantanamo prisoners are tortured, you don’t say “what goes around comes around.” No, you say we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard. We need to treat prisoners right, no matter how they may have treated us. But when it comes to politics, all of a sudden you have this “let’s screw them like they screwed us” attitude. We need to do what’s right, no matter what. And we need to support the right thing, no matter who is involved. This is a nation of laws, and we need to strive for that ideal no matter what.
“That is not what we do in American elections,” Huckabee said on CNN’s American Morning Monday. “Maybe that’s how they used to conduct it in the old Soviet Union, but you don’t just throw people’s votes out and say, ‘well, we’re not going to bother counting them because we kind of think we know where this was going.’
Thanks Mr. Huckabee, I couldn’t have said it better myself. And FANTASTIC job Mr. Esser, you made believers of all of us.
@26…AF…
Peep.
The Piper
Washington State Republicans === fascists, communists, crooks and liars!
31 ‘It’s funny, when Guantanamo prisoners are tortured, you don’t say “what goes around comes around.” ‘
Actually, it seems McCain has been saying precisely that. That’s OK, but I’d be more impressed to hear someone say, “We shouldn’t do that because it’s just not right.”
@33: OK Piper – you got me laughing with your peep. I may not agree with you on issue – but you can be pretty funny.
23 SJ
No evidence. Yeah, I knew that one.
Let me clue you in on something, buddy…the “phenomenon” of voting by mail is not “new.” Unless by “new” you mean that more than 50% of WA voters were already voting by mail in 2000 and nearly 90% do now, or that by “new” you mean that thirty-six of thirty-nine WA counties already conduct all-mail elections. (http://secstate.wa.gov/office/.....PZqA%3d%3d).
You have voiced your concerns before, but they are just baseless speculation about a “phenomenon” (and by “phenomenon” I mean the “ballot stuffing” to which you referred) that not only has never been shown to exist but also that the state GOP spent millions of dollars unsuccessfully trying to prove at a time when 70-to-80-odd percent of the state was voting by mail.
All you are doing is stoking the fires of unreasoning and baseless suspicion. Unless you got a mouse in your pocket with some fucking evidence, I’d say you’ve had your say and it has proven to be without meaningful content. You could give it a rest, but I suspect you’ll keep on spouting the nearly identically phrased suspiscions without a shred of proof (or decency, really) forever.
Peeper Scott @ 33
So what is your take on this?
@37: Daddy Love
Nice one. Voter fraud is mostly an illusion – but cover-up is a republican standard process. I happen to like the caucuses. They are messy and can be manipulated some – but they bring out passion and communication. You get to meet like-minded neighbors. Sitting at home with my “bic and beer” (to quote that well known pundit, Le goldy) ain’t the same. When there is a 6-5 250 lb guy who is in construction next to me – and he and I (similar size, but both soft-spoken) are both for Obama – it speaks in a way that voting at home will never get to…a common sense of purpose. When the two sweet elderly ladies at the table are also sporting Obama buttons and my 18 year old is elected an Obama delegate – it tells me there is broad support for Obama: from young and old, black and white.
Hillary is fine – I just think Obama is the better candidate to take on McCain. I think with Hillary we will get a huge negative fight. I think with Obama we will get a discussion of the issues – but Obama will defend himself rapidly – as he has already shown. If Hillary is so tough and seasoned – why is the underdog Obama now winning?
It is not gender and it is not race – it is who can we trust, who can inspire, who can win and also appeal to independents. People who are trying to make this about gender and race are missing the point.
Daddy Love
What is in your pants today?
First of all, saying that something has been around for 8 years and is therefore proven to work is absurd. If you want to argue with my concerns do so based on real objections, not .. gee we have not had an earthquake in Puget Sound of any considerable size so lets not worry about the viaduct.
Second, lest just imagine that you and I are churchian repricans and are really concerned abut John McCain. Lets also suppose James Dobson runs for Prexy in 08. Why wouldn;t we organize parayer brakfast vote athons???
Third, lets imagine Hillary winds and to over-ride the expected objections of moneyed interests, she proposes a national referendum. You and I are FOR Hillary Care and we are both billioniares. So, I come to you and propose that we put on a national “ballots for HillaryCare.” In our campaign, we would offer free signed pix of Hilalry, free blood pressure and choclesterol tests, BUT the price woould be to bring in your ballot and fill it out in the hall we provide .. compete with advisers and Hillarycare pens!
Democracy is a sort of evolution platform. If it works, any political device will be used.
—————————–
Is this is a broken record? No more than any other issue I care a lto about. What do you care about?
@26 Yes, it was the Pooper’s Squat that was doing all that blathering.
And I am sure he will carry on. . . .and on. . .and on. . . .
Nice to know the Republicans have progressed from 2000 where they refused to count Democratic votes, to 2008 where they are now refusing to count their own votes.
23,37 Here’s one for you to ponder…my parents voted absentee as they got older, and Dad helped Mom fill out her ballot year after year as she descended into the depths of Alzheimer’s. Knowing she had always been a rock-ribbed Republican, he’d always make sure she voted for all the Republican candidates, even when he himself was voting for someone else. (The one exception to this was Helen Sommers, who they knew personally.)
Was this right or wrong? The rules don’t say you have to be Einstein to vote. As long as you’re still breathing, who gets elected and what they do has bearing on your well-being. Should people be able to designate someone to vote as their proxy? After all, that’s how “corporate governance” works.
@39 correctnotright
I would agree with you IF we had the reosurces to make this a secret ballot. Those of us who want to spoeak out, of course should be able to. But, I suspect a lot of people are too shy to cluster with the loyalists,
Why couldn’t we rejigger the affair as follows:
Each precinct has two ballot boxes.
Each voter has two ballots … one straw poll and one final.
If you want to vote and not stand by, you can place a ballot in the final box.
If you want to participate and listen to your neighbors, you can choose not to vote in the straw poll or vote your current idea.
After discussion and caucus, a final vote is taken.
Wouldn’t this preserve the secrecy of the ballot (other than choice of party) AND allow for caucussing?
One could even go further and provide .. by mail .. each voter with two chits they could use for their voting. If we need to assure some participation, you would need to come in person to the caucus but once there you could vote and leave.
@43 Good question. Not a lawyer, but it seems to me that precedent argues against. Tenuous though my reasoning might be here, I would equate proxy voting with a poll tax, in the same sense that you cannot be required to pay for your vote nor can you designate someone else to vote for you.
This story has National implications…
On the heels of the allegations that Washington State Republican Chair Luke Esser called the race early for John McCain on Saturday, I decided to look further into it. What I’ve found convinces me that there’s more wrong than just the fact that Esser called the race early; he’s entirely misrepresenting the results of the State caucus, and calling McCain a “winner” based on faulty results.
I’ve written up my analysis and placed the article on my web site at more perfect. You can read it here:
http://www.moreperfect.org/wik.....og_Perfect
——
Did the Washington State Republican Party Misrepresent McCain’s Victory?
On February 9th, the Washington State Republican Party held statewide caucuses. The race for the GOP nomination has become Worldwide news, and all eyes were on Washington State; a rare position for this Western State.
It may very well be that the entire world has been misled regarding the results of this extremely important caucus.
Read the remainder of the article here: http://www.moreperfect.org/wik.....og_Perfect
@43 ArtFart
You make my point. While your Dad meant well, the potential for abuse is obvious. I also believe he broke the law!
@43 I believe that the law requires that you NOT submit a ballot filled out by someone else.
You gotta love this. First, the right wing turds that frequent this forum are fairly quiet on this one. No surprise. Second, you also have to love the few who pipe up and try to defend the GOP’s refusal to count all the votes.
There’s just so much material here. I love watching the GOP try to destroy themselves over and over. Hopefully one of these days it will work.
@43 Hey if Piper, Esser, Stefan, Klake, Marvin, etc. get to vote what is wrong with an old lady with Alheimer’s voting? There is no requirement that a voter be rational.
40 SJ
Voter fraud is a felony. The penalties for the multiple counts you propose really add up. This is why, you see, the people and situations you propose are straw men. They never did and never will exist, or, if by some chance of Darwin Award stupidity one eventually does, they’ll go to jail. And pronto, because even if you don’t realize it we take this sort of thing pretty damn fucking seriously in this state.
What you are proposing is that somehow massive multiple voter fraud will somehow occur quite publicly and the perps will not even be prosecuted. Riiiight.
So here we have a crime that does not exist. You propose that, because it might exist if we assume some extremely unlikely weird hypotheticals, that we should dismantle the extremely popular voting system in use in many states that 90% of our voters are using. Duh, how stupid does that sound?
Oh, and BTW:
First of all, saying that something has been around for 8 years and is therefore proven to work is absurd.
*sigh* If only I had said that. If only you had followed the link. If only you read for comprehension. We have had vote by mail in Washington State since 1915. I have been voting by mail for the better part of two decades. Vote fraud in mail-in ballots? Nope. Many years, plenty of chances, no fraud.
But here’s the real rub: There isn’t any vote by mail fraud. The isn’t any mass fraud being perpetrated. Your hypotheticals are ridiculous, and only you don’t understand this.
@29…Michael…
You needn’t feel sorry for me.
The caucus I conducted was orderly, respectful, dignified, and everyone who attended was accorded the fullest opportunity to say their piece, support their candidate, and generally participate.
My precinct was alloted three delegates in addition to me. Essentially, we sent three McCain delegates and one Romney delegate forward to the District Caucus and then the County Convention.
While it appears there have been some problems with a couple caucuses and some questions asked, we’ll sort them out fully and fairly. All political parties have their share of problems (consider the mess of so many Dem caucuses that disenfranchised potential attendees because they didn’t plan well enough, moved locations, etc.), and ours will be resolved in house.
But consider also the bigger, more dramatic picture, one that the HA Happy Hooligans rarely, if ever, grasp: No matter who wins in November, you lose.
Puddy consistently reminds you that most of you fall into what he calls the 16% group, a term he picked up from a CNN reporter commenting on the results of an early nominating process event. 16% on the extreme left-end of the political spectrum always crowing about how your time has come, you are the majority, this will be your moment in the sun, yada, yada, yada…
But it never happens, and you remain perpetually disillusioned and disappointed. Take ArtFart’s @30 comment as an example.
I’ve said this before many times: no matter who wins in November, the realities of the world won’t change, and the new President will have to face them. Now, he or she can face them and win or retreat from them and lose, but they’ll still be there.
Again, again, again…November is a long way off, and there are a lot of bridges to cross (Thanks for the offer, Teddy, but I’d just as soon walk), water to spill over the dam, and best laid plans of mice and men to go asunder. Consider some pitfalls:
– Democratic Party super delegates constitute 20% of the nominating delegates. It’s very conceivable that BHO could go into Denver leading in primary/caucus delegates yet lose to HRC who will work her political brass knuckles to keep what she has and get more.
– Dem insider Susan Estrich wrote an interesting piece on what she calls “the Bradley problem.” As opposed to the “Bradley effect” named after former NJ. Sen. Bill Bradley, this refers to former L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley who polling data had getting elected Governor of California. Never happened. Why? According to Estrich, racism; voters tell pollsters what’s politically correct and what pollsters want to hear, but get them into the privacy of the voting booth, and all bets are off. Estrich finds evidence of “the Bradley problem” in the Dem nominating process – in the process of the party of tolerance and openness.
Read it at: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,330248,00.html
– Messianic figures are nothing new in American political history. “Follow me and I will lead you up the path to salvation,” is an old and nearly cliched message. Some candidates win with it, most don’t. Those who do, usually find the honeymoon short when it comes time to put up or shut up.
Just what are the specifics of BHO’s platform? He’s long on rhetoric and short on the politics of getting it done. And when the American people become more acquainted with him (consider: those who participate in the nominating process are but a fraction of the electorate who are, as yet, still uninvolved and uninvormed), will they jump on the band wagon of someone so liberal? So expensive to them?
Jimmy Carter got elected espousing similar themes, and we sent him packing after but a single term and post haste. Had we a Paliamentary system, he would have been gone much sooner than that!
– HRC isn’t beloved of anyone, but she is behated by many. Some 47% of the electorate politically gag at the sound of her name. If she’s the nominee, how many will reject her just to get a new last name in the White House? People make voting decisions on far less than that all the time.
In addition, the prospect of Hillary Care paid for by having your wages garnished is awfully Orwellian.
– Is the current neck and neck race healthy for Dems? I’ve yet to read anything to say that it is. If anything, it’s causing angst among the likes of Howard Dean and Harry Reid, who’s even now trying to mend some very badly broken fences in Nevada.
The conventional wisdom has BHO picking up the small and medium-sized states while Texas, with its huge Latino population, and Ohio loom large on the HRC horizon. The pundits are even calling the latter two, “Hillary’s firewall.” But then the pundits have been consistent only in their inability to call things correctly, so who knows?
Let’s say things continue to be split roughly down the middle; what then? Dems have primaries and caucuses all the way through Puerto Rico’s caucuses for 63-delegates in early June. If the blogs are any indication, Dem unity is thin. Sure, you can get a show of hands indicating they’ll rally round the nominee, but that means nothing in terms of ground game turnout.
What you could have is Dems continue to slug at each other such that they exhaust themselves physically and financially trying to get a nomination that, once gotten, may prove hollow. Remember Chicago in 1968.
BHO is galvanizing a lot of support among newbies who are there for BHO, not to participate generally in American electoral politics. If HRC snatches the nomination through some super delegate chicanry, then what? Where will all these new True Believers go? Back into the woodwork is my sense.
– Say what you will, but Iraq seems to have stabilized, and if that trend continues, public perception of it as an issue may be radically changed such that being stridently anti-war may not be politically the best thing. And the threat of terrorism continues. We’ve been blessed not to have experienced a successful attack since 9/11, but anything can happen.
For me, Iraq and the general War against Terror remain the single overriding issue; everything else comes in at #4 or lower. If we lose that, then the rest is superfluous since Islamic jihadists have no preference between BHO’s or HRC’s national health; they have a plan for our national death. The biggest thing John McCain has going for him is that he’s been there, done that.
– Republicans aren’t without their own challenges. We always compare everyone to Ronaldus Magnus Reaganus, and they always fall short so we get pissed at them. There was only one Lincoln, too, but Republicans kept getting elected.
We have issues: spending needs to be addressed with earmarks the #1 target. Sen. Ted Stevens can’t leave D.C. soon enough to suit me. We need to return to our values and our roots: fiscal discipline, low taxes and minimal regulation, uncompromising national strength supremacy, pro-family and pro-life social policies, and unabashed belief that America is the greatest nation in the history of the world.
Most Americans don’t hang on what the Danes or Slovaks think of us, and they don’t want their government formulating policies based on some silly UN General Assembly vote. Work with other nations respectfully, listen to their POVs, respect their right to disagree, but in the end, America first, foremost, and, if necessary, only.
Just some thoughts…
BTW…I’m selling several hundred old LP’s – late 60’s/early 70’s Rock, Classical, Jazz, Soundtrack/Broadway Cast Albums, Folk Music, Vocal Standards…tons of stuff. If you’ve ever wanted a vinyl copy of The Beatles’ White Album, Johnny Cash Live at Folsom Prison, Easy Rider soundtrack, Big Brother and the Holding Company, Art Blakey and the Jazz Messengers, Theolonius Monk, Alecia de la Rocha playing piano music by Isaac Albeniz, The Limelighters, the Kingston Trio, PP&M – TONS MORE…Then see my Craig’s List ad.
Make me an offer I can’t refuse!
The Piper
@42…RP…
2000? Weren’t you a Republican then? Fully subscribing to GOP values, strategies, and campaigns? So wouldn’t you have been fully in support of all GOP 2000 efforts?
Any idea when you’ll next change parties?
The Piper
Say what you will, but Iraq seems to have stabilized
*cough* bullshit *cough*
War News for Monday, February 11, 2008
The DoD is reporting the death of a Navy SEAL in an IED attack in Iraq on Thursday, February 7th. No other details were released. The Pilot on line reports that six other SEALs were wounded in the attack.
Mnf-Iraq is reporting the death of a Multi-National Divison – North Soldier from an IED attack in Iraq on Sunday, February 19th. Two other soldiers were wounded in the attack.
Security incidents:
Baghdad:
#1: Two car bombs rocked Baghdad on Monday, killing 11 people and wounding 30. Witnesses said the bombs exploded in the southeastern neighbourhood of Jadriyah around noon (0900 GMT) as Gates was about to leave the country.
#2: Around 8:30 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted a civilian car in Al Mashtal area, killing one civilian and injuring two others.
#3: Around 9 a.m. a roadside bomb exploded near Al Mansour fuel station injuring two people.
#4: Waheed also said authorities had found a huge bomb Monday at the entrance to the electricity ministry in Baghdad. The explosives were safely defused, but the discovery underscored the continued threat to government infrastructure despite stepped up security measures. “Today the bomb reached the ministry’s entrance,” Waheed told The Associated Press. “If there is no security or political stability I cannot promise people any progress in the electricity sector.”
#5: Five individuals were wounded on Monday when a booby-trapped car went off near a police station in southern Baghdad, a source from the Interior Ministry said.”A car bomb detonated, parked near Balat al-Shuhadaa police station in al-Doura neighborhood in southern Baghdad, injuring five, including two policemen,” the source told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq
#6: Around 6 p.m. a parked car bomb near a police station in Dora neighborhood, injured three civilians and two police officers.
#7: Police found three bodies throughout Baghdad, one in Fidhiliyah, 1 in Obeidi and one in Tobchi.
Diyala Prv:
#1: One U.S. soldier was killed and two others wounded on Sunday when a roadside bomb hit their vehicle in Diyala province, east of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.
Muqdadiyah:
#1: Gunmen kidnapped Dr. Ahmad Al Jubouri in Muqdadiyah
#2: Gunmen attacked an Iraqi army patrol in Muqdadiyah, three gunmen were killed.
http://warnewstoday.blogspot.com/
Goldy: TPM is now quoting your article in HA from 2006 where you quote from the UW column that Lesser wrote on how to suppress “lefty voters” back when he was a chubby UW daily writer.
I love the old photo – the black rimmed glasses and plaid shirt. Also the part about how to stop lefties from voting….so precient ’cause now he is using against Huckabee. Once a voter suppressor – always a voter supressor.
Democratic unity is “thin?” Only until there’s a Republican in the race. Blue Tsunami, baby.
And this ain’t 1968, as much as you all love to wallow in the past and combat the Dirty Fucking Hippies again and again.
The war in Iraq is a loser, and McCain’s riding it down. The country’s in recession, and he has no economic knowledge, and economic plans beyond keep the tax cuts that aren’t working now. Even there, it’s clear he’s clinging to Bush, but Bush wrecked the economy and let bin Laden, the USS Cole bombers, and the anthrax terrorists go about their merry.
Yeah, looks like a banner year for the GOP.
@52: Piper
In honor of the recent events and Mike Huckabee:
Do you have the Beetles album with Back in the USSR on it?
Also: for Luke Esser and the WSRP I want to play:
Dead skunk in the Middle of the road
and for Mike Huckabee: Rocky racoon – hope you find that gideon’s bible.
@57…CnR…
That’s on White Album, and I have it. Also have a VERY old copy of Meet the Beatles, circa 1963.
Tell you what…you buy some of my LPs and I’ll throw in a couple cassette tapes of piping music.
The Piper.
YLD @54
Now run down the daily police blotter for L.A and explain how that city is in civil war.
@56…DL…
My reference to 1968 had nothing to do with hippies and everything to do with bitter divides within the Democratic Party INSIDE the convention hall. Anyone who either remembers those days or has studied them will tell you that Democrats were bitterly divided at the end of that convention. The public, on-air fight between Mayor Richard J. Daily and Connecticut Sen. Abraham Ribicoff eptomizes the divide.
The hippies were only icing on the already rancid cake.
The Piper
@60:right stuff – gee I haven’t noticed many CAR BOMBS in LA lately – I must get south more often! McCain has bet everything on the surge – of course, he thought we could win in Vietnam too if we just kept going….
gee- I love it when the wrong lessons are learned – but then again – McCain was actually in the Hanoi Hilton during a good part of the war.
I don’t begrudge McCain his war hero status – I would never do a swiftboat on him – he is an authentic hero. I just don’t trust his judgement.
58
Ah, a reference to Dead Skunk, and in an appropriate context, too. Kudos, dude. While the GOP is surely dead and stinking to high, high heaven, the party is not in the middle of the road, but way off on the right shoulder.
@61 Piper
Whayt you8 do not understand is that there is very little animoisuty between the Obama and the Clinton camps.
Each of these leaders offers her or his own skills to a common cause we all support. Join us! the grass is greener here!
Ironic minimizing or just head in sand?
Pooper @ 52
Yeah, Pooper, all it takes is lawyers, guns and money.
Piper: Desperately seeking ‘Fast Freight’ by the Kingston Trio. Got tune?
@56 McCain’s problems
You are dead on. The only way JM can win this race is if the Demo party falls apart or turns to far to the left.
Unlike past Reprican candidates and some Demos as well, BHO and Hillary are realists.
The ONLY way to run aginst them is whether better plans and as far as the I can see nor realistic plans will pacify the current GOP.
Too bad. I like John McCain. I wish he were a democrat. hew old be a good veep for BHO or HRC.
@61
There’s no bitter divide within the Democratic Party. You’re applying top down (Republican) logic to a bottom up (Democratic) system.
The two parties just work differently.
SJ @ 67: I consider McCain to be the best of a poor lot, but that’s not saying much.
Piper
Why the hell are you getting rid of your vinyl?
@66…P&E…
“Fast Freight” is on the first Kingston Trio album titled, of course, Kingston Trio. Yep…got it.
To keep things relevent? Libs will need a Fast Freight to blow town once they’ve been exposed as the charlatons and political alchemists they are.
The Piper
@70…PL…
Why not? I’m looking to downsize, my turntable is kaput, and I had to make some choices like keep books or keep records. I can always replace the music via an ITunes download, but finding a replacement for the three-volume set of Douglas Southall Freeman’s “Lee’s Lieutenants” isn’t about to happen.
I’ll bet you’re a Gabor Szabo guy? Lightenin’ Hopkins? No? How about Meridith Wilson? Maybe Johnny Rivers or Marki O’Conner?
Don’t delay, call today!
The Piper
@68…Michael…
Go out and read some of the postings on many of the local political blogs, through and including this one. Some nasty trash has been talked between HRC and BHO supporters, including near-criminal-level accusaitons against BHO. That some of them are near letter perfect postings by allegedly different people tells me that someone is sending around talking points and posters are doing a copy/paste under their own name. How rude and crude is that???
I don’t listen to the “We’ll always be good friends” rhetoric of candidates since it has no meaning. I don’t think HRC has any friends, she only has interests. When those interests peter out, it’s under the bus with them as she moves on to others.
Even her “Crying Time Again, You’re Gonna Leave Me…” episodes are suspiciously timed shed tears in the last news cycle before a vote. Boo-de-hoo-hoo-hoo! How manipulative is that???
Now BHO is calling HRC your grandmother’s candidate as he pins the destructive and divisive politics of the past on her.
http://www.breitbart.com/artic....._article=1
There is no love lost between these two. No one runs for Prexy in order to be loved, he runs to be powerful. Wanna friend in politics? Buy a dog!
The Piper
Piper
I’ve been taking blues guitar lessons lately just to break out of old habits. I just became familiar with Lightnin’ Hopkins. Outstanding. Hold aside whatever you have. How about Big Bill Broonzy or Muddy Waters, got any?
Piper sez:
Boy, I can just picture the vast hordes of Islamic warriors crossing the sea in their armada; nothing but Islamic warships from horizon to horizon, filled with the high-tech warmaking gagetry that will render our own puny military hoplessly outmanned and outgunned.
So sad…we should just give up and hide under our beds right now.
That is, if there’s still room…what with all the Republican bedwetters already there.
@74…PL…
None of those, but I have some B.B. King circa 1969. a Wes Montgomery Trio, and one Woody Guthrie. You can learn some hot licks from them cats, fo sho!
Really want a connection to blues? I know a store on Beale Street in Memphis that sells nothing but…I have the phone number around here somewhere.
Better hurry…my phone is ringing off the hook!
The Piper
Just familiar with Lightnin’??? Wow! You been under a rock for a lot of years.
The Piper
#72 Piper Scott says:
Hit up SeattleJew. He thought I was the real Marvin Stamm and bought a couple of his CDs which he said he enjoyed. I also recommended some Pete Christlieb which I think he also bought.
Piper
Just hold the Lightnin’; I have plenty of Woody’s old disks. I’ll get on craigslist and figure out how to do the transaction. With regard to old blues, I readily admit I have been under a rock. Still, there ain’t nothing wrong with making new discoveries while entering the graying years.
@63: Just because it is dead in the middle of the road – doesn’t mean that skunk wasn’t on the right hand shoulder when it got hit…..
@56…DL…
Check out the most recent column by liberal Frank Rich of the NY Times who also makes the ’68 Democratic Convention comparison. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02.....ref=slogin
A point well made by Rich is what if HRC tries a convention credentials fight to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan, states where outlaw primaries were held and won by her and where BHO’s name wasn’t even on the ballot!
The very real possibility exists for Dems for all this thin-veneer unity to fracture and have things get real ugly and real dirty. Remember, you’re dealing with the Clinton’s!
The Piper
What honor? The GOP has no honor to defend.
Goldy, you wrote:
Pudge dismisses the whole hoohah, arguing that the caucuses were so chaotic and mismanaged that the result “literally means nothing at all.”
In fact, I never argued that the caucuses were chaotic or mismanaged. It was never implied or stated in any way, and on the contrary, I claimed that the caucuses were well-managed and conducted appropriately.
Please post a correction.