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Showers and some storms over northern WA, southern NT, southern Qld & northern NSW in humid, unstable air. A cold front has pushed showers over Tas, southern Vic and NSW. A high keeps SA & remaining WA dry while pushing humid & showery easterly winds over northeast Qld.
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11 Sep 2024, 6:46AM UTC
Hurricane Francine strengthens over Gulf of Mexico ahead of Louisiana landfall
Data captured by an aircraft flying through the core of Hurricane Francine has revealed the system is rapidly gaining strength as it approaches the coast of Louisiana, where it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday. Francine became a hurricane late on Tuesday afternoon as it drew energy from warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. At 7pm CDT Tuesday, Francine was located roughly 295 miles (475 km) to the southwest of Morgan City Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) near its core. Video: Hurricane Francine over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. Source: CSU/CIRA & NOAA By 10:20pm CDT, the hurricane had strengthened further, with data collected by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft revealing that Francine’s peak sustained winds had increased to 85 mph (140 km/h). By 1:00am CDT, Francine’s peak winds had increased even more, reaching 90 mph (150 km/h), making it a high-end category one system. Francine is expected to strengthen further on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with the National Hurricane Center anticipating the system may reach near category two strength on Wednesday morning before making landfall on the Louisiana coast in the afternoon or evening. Image: Forecast peak wind gusts at 9pm UTC on Wednesday, September 11, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. At this stage, landfall is expected to occur somewhere along the central coastline of Louisiana and a hurricane warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle. Hurricane Francine is expected to produce powerful hurricane force winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, a life-threatening storm surge, abnormally high tides and coastal inundation as it approaches and crosses the coast. Some of these impacts will extend beyond Louisiana and into parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Francine will begin to weaken after crossing the coast, although the decaying hurricane will continue to produce dangerous weather over the Southeastern United States into Thursday and Friday. Visit the National Hurricane Center website for the latest official information on Hurricane Francine.
11 Sep 2024, 2:22AM UTC
Bitter wintry chill returning this weekend
A two-pronged burst of cold weather is heading the way of southeastern Australia, bringing the sort of chill that was largely missing during Australia's warmest August on record. A relatively weak cold front passing through Tasmania this Wednesday will flick just enough cold air northwards to drop max temps by four degrees or more in cities in the SE corner of the mainland: Melbourne will drop from a max of 19°C on Wednesday to 15°C on Thursday. Canberra will drop from a max of 21°C on Wednesday to 17°C on Thursday. Sydney will drop from a max of 25°C on Wednesday to 19°C on Thursday. But that's just phase one of the return to wintry temperatures. On Sunday, a second surge of cold air will push onto the mainland as winds circulate around the high pressure centred over the Great Australian Bight. Sunday maximum temps in the three cities just mentioned are expected to be: Melbourne: 14°C Canberra: 15°C Sydney: 17°C All three cities will no doubt feel a lot colder than the still-air temperatures due to blustery winds out of the south, with showers likely in both Sydney and Melbourne. Indeed the apparent temp (or "feels like temp") is expected to be well below 10 degrees at midday in Sydney. Meanwhile an exceptionally chilly morning can be expected at the top of Thredbo on Sunday, with a minimum of –8°C. When the mercury dips that low overnight, it’s usually a sign of a dry airmass, and indeed any snow that falls on Saturday into Sunday morning will be short-lived, and definitely not enough to breathe life into the ailing ski season. As the airmass continues to dry out, a cold start to Monday can be expected right across the southeast, with a minimum of 0°C in Canberra and a single-digit low in Sydney. That’ll feel chilly for Sydneysiders, who probably threw the heavy doonas in the cupboard after a balmy minimum of 17.4°C on the last night of winter.
11 Sep 2024, 12:11AM UTC
Parts of WA facing prolonged period of extreme heat
The mercury is rising in WA over the coming days with parts of the Pilbara and Kimberley are forecast to see temperatures reach at least 36°C for five consecutive days. This prolonged period of spring warmth is being caused by a stubborn high pressure system sitting over the Bight for the rest of the week directing warm easterly winds from the interior of Australia to the west coast. There will also be a heat trough extending over the west coast from late Wednesday, generating some showers. Images: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) on Wednesday, September 11 and Sunday, September 15 (top to bottom). This stagnant pattern is allowing extreme heat to build over northwestern Australia, with some towns in the Kimberley and Pilbara set to endure five days in the high 30s to low 40s. Unfortunately, there will be no relief overnight with some locations only dropping to 24°C overnight. Images: Maximum temperature forecasts on Thursday, September 12 and Saturday, September 14 (top to bottom) according to ECMWF While the north of the state swelters, Perth will experience three days in the mid to high 20s, which is around 5 to 7°C above the September average. Perth’s minimum temperatures should also be around 4 to 5°C above average early Thursday to Saturday mornings, with the temperature failing to drop below 14 to 15°C. Looking ahead, temperatures should drop to the low to mid 30's in the Pilbara and Kimberley early next week when the high pressure system finally moves east away from the state. Meanwhile Perth's temperature should drop below 25°C from Sunday.
Weather in Business
28 Aug 2024, 3:51AM UTC
Gales and crosswinds cause disruptions at Sydney Airport
Gale force west to northwesterly winds are creating havoc at Sydney airport on Wednesday afternoon, with all six landing and takeoff options impacted by very strong cross winds. Sydney airport saw gale force west to northwesterly mean wind speeds of 65km/h at 12:30pm, while the site has been gusting up to 82km/h. These winds are too strong for all three runways (six landing and takeoff options) to be used safely, airport traffic typically peaks during light winds. The image below shows that two of Sydney Airport’s parallel runways are orientated from north to south, and one single runway runs from west to east. Image: Sydney Airport runway orientation showing two parallel runways running north/south and one west/east, Source: Sydney Airport The west-east runway is the longest and can accept the largest aircraft, the A380. The gale force west to northwesterly winds on Wednesday are causing around 25 knots of crosswind on each of the six runway options. Image: Weatherzone’s cross wind calculator in our Aviation Dashboard showing cross wind or X wind of 24 to 25 knots. The term ‘crosswinds’ refers to winds that blow perpendicular to the runway, which can generate a significant lateral force on the aircraft, making it difficult for pilots to maintain a stable trajectory. The strong crosswinds can cause the plane to drift off course, posing a serious risk to both the aircraft and its passengers. Sydney Airport typically changes runways when there’s sustained crosswind gusts above 20 knots (37km/h). However, on Wednesday crosswinds are affecting all runways, meaning that aircraft are often opting to use the two north-south runways to increase traffic. This has meant that some flights have tried twice to land in these difficult conditions. It is very rare for crosswinds to impact all runways and therefore this event is causing significant disruptions at the airport on Wednesday. This event is not isolated to the Sydney area, numerous severe weather warnings for gales and damaging and/or destructive winds are in place across four states and the ACT, as a strong cold front lashes Tasmania and southeastern parts of the continent. So when will these winds die down? Conditions will ease somewhat by Wednesday evening, but not before the Sydney airport peak hour between 5 and 7pm. Winds will intensify again on Friday and into the weekend as further fronts whip through southern parts of the country.
23 Aug 2024, 5:01AM UTC
A great week for Tassie Hydro
Hundreds of millimetres of rainfall are forecast for western Tasmania in the next week, which will help replenish hydroelectric lakes in the region after some of the lowest rainfall on record. Hydropower is Tasmania’s main source of electricity, with frequent rain filling Tassie Hydro’s 54 major dams and feeding into 30 hydropower stations. In fact, during winter, the state usually exports electricity to Victoria, via the underwater Basslink. In summer, when it is usually drier, the state relies on the National Electricity Market (NEM) for a top up of power. Image: Hydroelectricity dam at Strathgordon in Tasmania According to Hydro Tasmania, they produce around 9000 gigawatts of clean renewable electricity from hydropower, enough to power 900,000 homes or businesses. The map below shows the catchments and power stations scattered across Tasmania; the largest lakes used for hydro are the Great Lake and Gordon-Pedder. The rain that falls in these catchments or dams is collected and used to generate electricity. Image: Hydro catchment areas. Source: Hydro Tasmania Usually, the west coast of Tasmania is the wettest due to prevailing westerly winds from cold fronts passing over the state, which tend to be blocked by vast mountains through central areas. During the past three months, unfortunately, this has not been the case for the west coast. Overall, the area has seen below average rain, reaching record lows in the far northwest, while the east coast saw average to above average rain. Image: Tasmania rain deciles between May 1 and July 31, 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology During July 2024, rain in western and central Tasmania was in the lowest 10% of Julys since 1900. The below average rain has affected water storage across western Tasmania, with some areas seeing record low or very much below average streamflow. The Great Lake was only 25.1% full by the end of July, which is a 10.4% decrease from the same time last year. Image: Streamflow decile categories for July 2024. Source: BOM The good news is that rain is on its way, with a complex low pressure system set to direct several cold fronts across the state in the coming week. Western Tasmania is forecast to see around 100 to 200mm of rain in the next 7 days, which could help fill up the western lakes, including the Gordon-Pedder. Eastern Tasmania, however, will see slightly less rain, with widespread falls of 30 to 50mm and isolated falls of 60 to 80mm. Image: Accumulated rain forecast for the next 7 days leading up to 10pm AEST on Thursday, August 29. Some of these totals will fall as snow as a cold airmass moves over the state from mid to late next week. Looking ahead, the rain should continue next Friday, August 30, and into the weekend as the low continues to linger over the region.