Future of an Aging Court Raises Stakes of Presidential Vote

WASHINGTON — Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is not known for delivering laugh lines. But she drew chuckles from a group of liberal lawyers not long ago while recalling how Justice Elena Kagan, 52, had suggested during an oral argument before the Supreme Court that people born before 1948 were old.

“Next year I will turn 80, God willing,” Justice Ginsburg said. “ ‘I’m not all that old,’ I told my youngest colleague.”

Justice Ginsburg is the eldest member of a court that includes four justices in their 70s, making it among the oldest courts since the New Deal era. Its decisions during this historic “flood season,” as Justice Ginsburg described the end-of-term rush, are likely to make the panel — and the tenure of some of the justices — a significant issue in the presidential campaign.

On Monday, the court’s ruling in an Arizona immigration case delivered a partial victory to the Obama administration but also deeply disappointed some Latinos by upholding a requirement that police officers check the immigration status of anyone they stop if they suspect that the person is in the country illegally.

On Thursday, the court is expected to announce its decision on President Obama’s health care law, one of the most consequential cases in decades. This fall, the court will take on an affirmative action case that could end preferential treatment at public universities, and it might hear a case involving same-sex marriage.

The winner of the race for president will inherit a group of justices who frequently split 5 to 4 along ideological lines. That suggests that the next president could have a powerful impact if he gets to replace a justice of the opposing side.