Given the lack of action on the baseball hot stove lately, I’m reviving the Evil Player program to generate a name. First off is Jeremy Hellickson.
Hellickson is an eight season veteran pitcher. His most impressive quality is his ability to limit hits despite a rather low K rate. This spreadsheet shows how a pitcher’s strikeout rate (K per 9) predicts hit rate (H per 9) for active pitchers with at least 400 IP in their career. He’s not the most extreme pitcher in the group (that would go to Brad Ziegler), but Hellickson is predicted to allow 9.2 hits per nine and only allows 8.5.
He did start his career with the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that tended to put their scant dollars into defense. His low hit rate continued however as he moved to the Phillies and Orioles. He is not an extreme pitcher, over his career giving up fly balls and ground balls at about the same rate. He gives up a normal number of line drives, so he’s not causing poor contact more than any other pitcher. What he has done over the years is change his mix of fastballs and sliders while maintaining his change up. His success may come from not allowing hitters to develop a good pattern recognizer against him.
I all my readers celebrating today, have a wonderful time with your family and friends! It’s snowing hard in this part of New England, so we are having a real white Christmas this year.
You may have seen the photo of Tim Lincecum training about 50 miles north of here at Driveline that’s flown around Baseball Twitter. The great Patrick Dubuque wrote about it at BP here, and he’s right – Lincecum doesn’t *need* to do anything more. His career – his meteoric rise to the top of baseball – was enough, and he has nothing left to prove. We all saw Lincecum’s last appearance in the bigs, pitching for the Angels, in what’s sure to be a tough pub quiz question 10 years hence. He pitched 3+ IP against Seattle, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits, and with an ERA standing at over 9, the Angels released him after that day in August of 2016. The statistical record looks pretty damning: declining velo leading to worse and worse results, and there you go – an early peak, an early fall, and hey, pitchers, amirite? As we’ve seen so often, though, players have much, much more control over their true talent than people like me ever imagined. Does this mean Lincecum’s back? Is Shawn Armstrong the next Nick Vincent? Will Ben Gamel hit 30 HRs? I don’t know, I don’t know, and I doubt it. But if I could make the M’s better than their rivals at any aspect of running a team, it’d be this ability to make a player unrecognizable – to blow the trend and the carefully-constructed scouting report out of the water. The Astros did this with a number of players, and that ultimately meant more to their World Series win than drafting Carlos Correa (though for the record, I’d like the M’s to draft the next Carlos Correa). The M’s trail the Astros in talent, and they need an out-of-nowhere leap in ability from a few of their players. That’d make a fine Christmas gift.
At one point in Moneyball, Billy Beane talks about how once a player reaches the majors, it’s tough to teach plate discipline. One thing that changed since that book is that teams found a way to get players to buy into change. Part of that is today’s hitters and pitchers grew up with stats on the internet. Part of that is teams do a better job of relaying the information. Players can change, and we are seeing that more today than ever.
Tom Tango uses a hockey analogy to re-examine production from barrelled balls. Although he doesn’t go in this direction in the post and comments, I think he is really evaluating hitters like Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire (barrelled balls tend to go for home runs) versus Mike Trout and Joey Votto (barrelled balls produce a diverse set of hits). Bonds produced a .285 career BABIP, McGwire .255, Trout .355, Votto .354. Lots of home runs can cover other weaknesses.
The Diamondbacks took a gamble on Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hiranoon the international free agent market. He will cost them just $6 million during his two-year contract. If he can land the closer’s job, the deal will be a big win for Arizona:
His repertoire consists of a low 90s fastball that’s complemented by a really devastating splitter and the occasional curveball. His game is mostly attacking the top of the zone with the fastball and the bottom of the zone with his splitter. This type of reliever is not unique to the Diamondbacks organization, as previous closers J.J. Putz and Jose Valverde were riser-splitter type pitchers and had great success in their tenures in Arizona.
This strikes as a possible low-risk high-reward type move that’s been Mike Hazen’s modus operandi since being hired as the GM of the Diamondbacks last offseason.
Enberg was a fixture in American households for years, calling NFL and MLB games and Wimbledon for NBC, CBS and ESPN. He was best known for his catch phrase, “Oh, my!”
He spent his later years in San Diego, calling games locally for the Padres.
The Padres released an official statement late Thursday night, saying, “We are immensely saddened by the sudden and unexpected passing of legendary broadcaster Dick Enberg. Dick was an institution in the industry for 60 years and we were lucky enough to have his iconic voice behind the microphone for Padres games for nearly a decade. On behalf of our entire organization, we send our deepest condolences to his wife, Barbara, and the entire Enberg family.”
My thoughts go out to his family, friends, and many fans throughout the sports world.
Both the baseball and football halls of fame honored Enberg’s broadcasting. His voice was immediately recognizable. He was clear, concise, and never overwhelmed the spectacle he broadcast. The state of Michigan honored him earlier this year.
“The DICAN stops me with rifles, they hit me, they throw me to the ground, they take my belongings, they crash my vehicle,” the post translates to, in part. “Today it is me, tomorrow it will be another player.”
DICAN, the Dominican anti-drug police, has been cited for extortion and drug trafficking charges on multiple occasions in recent years.
But a Wall Street Journal report Thursday indicated that Bowman shoved a member of the Boston Red Sox ownership group at an All-Star Game function in July and more recently verbally berated a staff member in the weeks before his departure.
More disturbingly, according to the Journal, citing people familiar with Bowman, he cultivated an atmosphere toxic to women employees, including propositioning them, engaging in relationships with subordinates and using pejoratives directly in their presence.
Then-commissioner Bud Selig was made aware of Bowman’s behavior by former chief operating officer Robert DuPuy. Yet no apparent action was taken against Bowman as he was building MLB’s advanced media wing into a virtual cash machine.
It seems to be a pattern lately that when one of these moguls starts to fall, the bad blood built up of the years comes back to haunt them.
I’ve been around a long time. I was in my early 20s when I came across the kind of behavior that hyper-competitive athletes exhibit, but it really generalizes to all professions. Some people just need to be the best, and will destroy anyone in their way. After a while, they don’t have any friends, and wonder why. They see themselves as someone striving to be the best, and don’t understand how they alienate people.
The joke when I worked at ESPN was that you cannot have a friendly game of checkers with a professional athlete. The athlete always felt the need to win. Ray Knight and Nancy Lopez could not play golf together because they could not turn off their competitiveness to enjoy a game as a couple. I suspect most of the people recently brought down by scandal are the same way.
They were all extremely successful, however. I like to think that the need to have the most money, the most women, the most trophies, isn’t required for great success, but right now it sure seems that way.
One thing I like about Tom Tango is that he tries to get people talking the same language in terms of sabermetrics. Here, he mathematically defines the strike zone, introducing the terms heart, shadow, and ozone to describe the areas in question. You may need to read it two or three times, but it’s well worth the effort. I suspect we are going to see some interesting research tied to this.
Free agent 1B Yonder Alonso in agreement with #Indians on two-year, $16M contract, sources tell The Athletic. Deal includes $8M vesting option for a third year. Agreement first reported by @BNightengale.
While Santana posted better number long term, Alonso posted a better 2017 season. They were very close in terms of OBP, but Alonso slugged at a higher rate. Alonso is also a year younger. If he can repeat his 2017 season, the Indians get a nice replacement for under half the cost per season.
Britton ruptured his right Achilles tendon yesterday while working out at agent Scott Boras’ training center in California. The Orioles found out about it last night, according to executive vice president Dan Duquette, who confirmed the injury.
“We’re trying to get our arms around it and it looks like surgery is indicated,” Duquette said.
Asked for a timetable, Duquette replied, “We have to get a little bit more information from the surgery, but it looks like six months.”
This is going to be a really interesting off-season for the Orioles. They don’t look like a very good team, especially if they trade away Manny Machado. Duquette is a very good GM, so I’m really interested to see if he tries to put together a better than expected team, or steps back to take a couple of seasons to rebuild.
By the way, here are Britton’s relative discussing politics:
In a combative interview on ESPN Radio, host Dan Le Batard told Manfred: “We are starting with a lie” when Manfred said he did not know the plans of new owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman during the approval process.
“I’m not going to have you call me a liar!” Manfred said.
Two people directly involved in the sales process said that Jeter and Sherman were required to tell other owners their intentions with payroll during the approval process, and that they informed the other owners that payroll would be cut from $115 million to the $85 million to $90 million range, with $85 million used at times and $90 million other times in those discussions.
Why are things never easy with the Marlins? My answer would have been, “Yeah I knew, but we had to get rid of the Loria clan, and this was the best group offering money. Plus, diversity!”
Derek Jeter took a lot of flak at a town hall meeting, but at least he put himself out in front of the fans. Better that fans are angry with him than at the players. If the team performs poorly, the fans won’t take it out on the team, but on the GM.
The 32-year-old is a three-time All-Star who has spent his entire 10-year career with the Rays and in many ways was the face of the franchise.
Longoria serves as a template for how a team gets the most out of a player. Signed to a six year, $17.5 million deal a few days after reaching the majors, the Rays made Longoria and the fans happy that they were willing to pay a top prospect to stay on the team. The Rays received about 35 fWAR from Longoria in those six years, worth about $237 million. The current contract is back loaded, so he’s still owed $81 million, more than half the contract. Given that he only produced 14.5 WAR over the last four seasons, the Giants are not getting the superstar the Rays fans knew and loved.
The Rays get Arroyo, who does a good job getting on base, Krook who blows away batters but has not learned control, and Woods, who is similar. I suspect all will see MLB action sooner than later.
The Giants plug a black hole at third base, where their crew posted a .216/.268/.300 slash line in 2017. Even a declining Longoria is much better than that.
Eno Sarris talked with front office and field managers about how the game is changing, and how to react to that change. There is so much good commentary in the article, but here is one response that resonated with me (emphasis added):
“I do think there’s been a fairly extreme shift in the makeup of front offices and even media coverage,” said the higher-up. “The general framework of a lot of conversations about the game has really changed. Roster-building is a year-round sport, and it does tend to feel at times like we’re all a part of some meta theater that’s somewhat loosely attached to dudes playing on a field. The focus of what it means to be a fan or follow a team has shifted at least somewhat from simply knowing the players and what happened in games toward some bigger picture perspective that accounts for assets in the farm system, where you are on the win curve, and how efficiently resources are being utilized.”
This is why some people rebel against analytics. They want Jack Morris in the Hall of Fame because pitching 10 shutout innings in game seven of the World Series confirmed everything we knew from watching Morris’s career. Analytics does take some of the romance out of the game.
Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball in Kent, Wash., posted a photo of the former Giants right-hander working out at the facility.
“Yes, this is Tim Lincecum at @DrivelineBB ,” Boddy tweeted from his KyleB@Driveline account. “Yes, Adam Ottavino took the picture while training here. Yes, Tim will throw for teams at a showcase in the near future. No, I have no other information for you.”
Lincecum looks ripped in the picture. He’s 33 so he may be able to make a return. Bartolo Colon when through a worse stretch at an older age and then came back strong for another solid six years.
That’s why this statement found on the history page of MLBPA’s web site is so comical:
“Each generation of players has passed along a legacy and a responsibility to the next generation — a legacy built on equality, loyalty and fair play.”
And the thing is, some sports columnists are so afraid of losing their access to the clubs they cover and write about, and they’re so petrified of not being able to talk to ballplayers, they don’t challenge the union over its hypocritical statement.
Maybe the New Year will be different. Maybe 2018 will finally see Clark come to his senses. Maybe he’ll live up to the nickname that was bestowed upon him when he was an All-Star in Detroit — “Tony the Tiger.”
‘Cause the way I see it, to paraphrase the late E.Y. Yip Harburg, this Tiger is just a dandelion. He has no courage.
Whenever a person or group goes into a negotiation, there are items there can can be abandoned so that a side can give up something, without losing anything it really wants. I suspect better benefits for former players is an easy one to toss aside.
In doing so, the Hamels are donating a 32,000-square-foot home in southwest Missouri to charity. The home, on Table Rock Lake, is being given to Camp Barnabas.
“There are tons of amazing charities in southwest Missouri. Out of all of these, Barnabas really pulled on our heartstrings,” Hamels said in a release. “Seeing the faces, hearing the laughter, reading the stories of the kids they serve; there is truly nothing like it. Barnabas makes dreams come true, and we felt called to help them in a big way.”
The house is worth nearly $10 million. It’s a wonderful Christmas present.
“We used the last couple of weeks continuing to lay the foundation for building a first-class, winning organization,” president of baseball operations Michael Hill said in a statement released after Realmuto’s request became public. “Should we feel like we need to make a trade involving any of our under-contract, controllable players, we will be the ones who initiate that conversation and always do what’s best for the organization.”
Players are pretty good at getting themselves traded. It’s pretty easy to become a clubhouse cancer. Complaining a lot usually gets one off the team. While the Marlins want to be in control of the situation, it’s tough to keep a player that doesn’t want to remain on the team.
The Phillies addressed a glaring offensive problem in the last few days, adding Carlos Santanaon a three-year deal and trading awayFreddy Galvis to the Padres. The Phillies posted a .315 OBP in 2017, ten points below the NL average. That ranked 13th in the league. First base came in at .309, while shortstop was a little better at .316. Galvis, however, holds a .287 OBP for his career, while his replacement, prospect J.P.Crawford did an excellent job of getting on base in the minors. Carlos Santana owns a .365 career OBP, and brings power to boot.
The Phillies may have gotten better on the other side of the ball, also. Enyel De Los Santos, the pitcher they received from the Padres, walks very few batters. Drawing a good number of walks while issuing few is a nice path to success.
The couple met during the 2013 baseball season when both were working for the Washington Nationals. Ms. Garagiola, new to the team’s marketing department, was given a tour of the stadium by Mr. Longosz, then the team’s coordinator of scouting.
Congratulations to the couple, and may they have many curly Ws.
Matt Kemp is heading back to Los Angeles and the path is officially cleared for superstar prospect Ronald Acuña after the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers completed an expensive five-player blockbuster.
Los Angeles sent veteran pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, utility option Charlie Culberson, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and cash considerations to Atlanta in exchange for Kemp. The Braves immediately designated Gonzalez, who waived his no-trade clause to complete the transaction, for assignment to allow him a chance to earn significant playing time somewhere in 2018. Atlanta’s 40-man roster is now full.
The Dodgers reportedly sent $4.5 million to balance the two salary dumps.
So the Dodgers can now dump Kemp and in one move pull themselves under the salary cap. If they stay healthy, Kazmir and McCarthy, but their injury history argues against that. Gonzalez was released by the Braves, and becomes a free agent.
I like the Zack Cozartdeal for the Angels. At $38 million over three years, the Angels are paying him for about 1.5 WAR per season. That’s pretty much his historical level. They were not tempted to over pay him after he posted a five-WAR season late in his prime. Even if Cozart fall apart in his early 30s, the Angels are not committed to him long term.
Right now, the Angels are doing a good job of putting capable veterans around Mike Trout on offense. With healthy pitching, they could make a better run for a wild card, or even a division title if the Astros falter.
As the 2017 Cardinals lost steam and the focus turned to the future, the team decided it would look to move Piscotty — with a preference on sending him close to the Bay Area if a deal to do so was palatable. It worked out nicely that the A’s were shopping for a righthanded hitting corner outfielder with a locked-in contract.
“You are never making a player trade simply for geographic or sentimental reasons,” Mozeliak said. “It had to be something that made sense for us. There were certainly some opportunities to move him elsewhere. When you are looking at how to break a tie, clearly that (sending Piscotty home) did play into it.”
Although Piscotty hit poorly for average and power in 2017, he maintained his OBP. He hit well on a west coast trip in September, where his mother was able to attend games. It was only 26 PA, so take the .391 BA with a grain of salt. The A’s, however, should be optimistic that he did maintain his OBP, and that he will be playing for them in the middle of his peak years. He looks like a great candidate for bouncing back from an off year.
We are thrilled to welcome Alex Rodriguez, 3-time MVP, 14-time all-star, and World Series Champion, as a speaker at the 2018 Conference! His success extends beyond the field and includes investments, real estate and philanthropy. The insights of this all-time great will be one of the highlights of SSAC18, and we look forward to welcoming him to Boston in February!
The two prospects coming back to the Tigers will be outfielder Troy Montgomery and right-handed pitcher Wilkel Hernandez. They were ranked No. 20 and No. 24 in the Angels system, respectively.
…
The real prize is 18-year-old Wilkel Hernandez. Hernandez posted strong numbers in rookie ball last year for the Angels. He is a ways away, but has what Baseball Prospectur writer Mark Anderson calls “gobs of potential”.
Gobs of potential if he can stop walking over four batters per nine innings.
The Marlins made their final trade of a big contract player as they send Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals for four players:
The deal, first reported by SiriusXM, is pending a physical. In return, the Marlins will receive right-handed pitching prospect Sandy Alcantara, outfielder Magneuris Sierra, right-hander Zac Gallen and lefty Daniel Castano, according to the Miami Herald.
Ozuna was likely going to get a big raise in arbitration this season. The Marlins have cleared enough salary now to keep Christian Yelich.
Did the Marlins get a good haul? Alcantara got a taste of the majors in 2017 at seasonal age 21. He is a high K pitcher, but also walks lots of batters. Sierra went 19 for 60 with his cup of coffee, drawing four walks for a .359 OBP. That was his strength in the minors, as he shows little power. Gallen played 2017 as a 21 year old as well, visiting all three levels of the minors. He post great strikeout and walk numbers. Castano only played in the low minors so far, posting good strikeout and great walk numbers.
So the Marlins get two players who can help fill out the roster in 2018, and two pitchers who might be good someday. The Cardinals get Ozuna coming off a career year with three more prime seasons ahead of him.
The move made Wednesday by the Twins during baseball’s winter meetings was more for 2019, when Pineda will earn $8 million. He’ll get $2 million for the 2018 season, which he’ll likely miss while continuing the rehab following elbow ligament replacement.
Pineda’s procedure was performed July 18. The typical timetable for Tommy John patients to return to the mound is between 12 and 18 months.
If Pineda recovers quickly, this could be a great move for the Twins. If they are in contention again next season, getting Pineda for the stretch drive and/or the playoffs could give the team a nice boost late.
Why did Ohtani choose the Halos? What was the thing that tipped him over the edge into Angels territory, eschewing six other finalist teams in the process? Well, after reading Jeff Passan’s report this evening, I think I’ve got it: Ohtani chose the Halos because he felt, due to the amount of devastating and maddening elbow injuries their pitching staff has been dealt in recent years, that they’d be best equipped to handle the news that the stud Japanese ballplayer you just signed could possibly be another one added to that infamous injury list.
Basically, there was inflammation in the ligament, but no damage. It was treated with a plasma injection. All the teams knew this going in, and they all still wanted him. I suspect the worry level should be low at this point.
