Shocko@shockproofbeats

1. People asking about possibility of United Ireland as "solution". Here are my thoughts. Do not think it likely, or practical at all.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:09:48

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:09:48

Shocko@shockproofbeats

2. A poll (which was not massively rigorous, tbh) last year cited 14% favourability of reunification “soon”.  http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-34725746 …

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:10:46

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:10:46

Shocko@shockproofbeats

3. But UI not overwhelmingly popular, even in higher estimates, where wording changes to “in your lifetime”  http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1105/739708-cross-border-survey/ …

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:11:56

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:11:56

Shocko@shockproofbeats

4. Obviously, unionists’ feelings on UI well understood, but many Southern Irish also scathingly derisive of the idea of reunification.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:12:30

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https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/748126998896185348

— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:12:30

Shocko@shockproofbeats

5. As thousands upon thousands of comments in my mentions have been sure to remind me over the past few days.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:12:48

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https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/748127073827495936

— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:12:48

Shocko@shockproofbeats

6. Many in ROI see reunification as an economic quagmire, and a few liken it to inviting a mad boatload of nutcases into their house.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:13:11

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:13:11

Shocko@shockproofbeats

7. Can see where those arguments are coming from. Not an expert, but think it would be a car crash to combine those political landscapes.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:14:25

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:14:25

Shocko@shockproofbeats

8. Either way, North or South, no plurality in favour of immediate reunification, and those who are opposed are DEAD opposed.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:14:45

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https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/748127563793448960

— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:14:45

Shocko@shockproofbeats

9. SF Border poll was a likely – perhaps even democratically essential - fallout from Brexit, but debating this issue highly divisive.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:15:22

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https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/748127719112716288

— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:15:22

Shocko@shockproofbeats

10. Am lucky to have lived in era where NI has AT LEAST moved past constant, futile, repetitive bollocks about “the national question”.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:16:13

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:16:13

Shocko@shockproofbeats

11. Worry poll would dredge up old arguments, old divisions, old hatreds, and FOR NEAR-CERTAIN DEFEAT for UI; no real practical benefit.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:17:02

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:17:02

Shocko@shockproofbeats

12. In NI, maj. of opposition to reunification is cultural, historical; unconnected to impulses and motivations of conventional politics.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:17:54

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:17:54

Shocko@shockproofbeats

13. And there are solid economic and political arguments that could work against UI even *without* all those (unsubtractable) factors.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:18:33

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:18:33

Shocko@shockproofbeats

14. (NI is heavily propped by govt subsidies, and even many Irish-Identifying ppl nevertheless value NHS, British civil services etc etc).

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:19:01

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:19:01

Shocko@shockproofbeats

15. I’m NOT an expert, BUT some do suggest economic benefit of reunification – $36bn according to this report -  http://prcg.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Modeling-Irish-Unification-Report.pdf …

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:54:03

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:54:03

Shocko@shockproofbeats

16. But proving this to public would be a hard sell. In fact, even if PROVED to be economically better, huge opposition would still exist.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:20:58

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:20:58

Shocko@shockproofbeats

17. So, I think a border poll would be defeated at a canter, but will still have stirred up old tensions and enmities in the process.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:21:48

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:21:48

Shocko@shockproofbeats

18. Especially if agitated nationalists, republicans then come to terms with loss of EU funding AND aforementioned border restrictions.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:22:47

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:22:47

Shocko@shockproofbeats

19. NOW let’s imagine by some miracle, some greater % of Unionists were convinced and reunification DID happen. (Again, science fiction imo)

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:24:00

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:24:00

Shocko@shockproofbeats

20. Where does that leave unionists who are unconvinced? Big % of the community, civic structure, professional class, security services.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:24:30

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:24:30

Shocko@shockproofbeats

21. Those unionists within a United Ireland would be (quite rightly) angry at being now trapped in a country many (most?) have never visited

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:25:02

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:25:02

Shocko@shockproofbeats

22. Rather than centuries-old grievance that's muddled its way toward stable compromise they’d feel overnight AFFRONT unlike any since 1921.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:26:09

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:26:09

Shocko@shockproofbeats

23. And even in defeat, they'd have several large parties now absorbed into the Irish parliament whose only goal would be to leave.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:26:45

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:26:45

Shocko@shockproofbeats

24. Frustration, leading to violence, right back to were we were in the past, only with the sides of the chessboard reversed.

Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:27:26

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— Shocko (@shockproofbeats)Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:27:26