When their finals hopes first started to fade amid an alarming slump that consumed the second half of their season, the Dragons simply needed to start winning football games again.
Now, after a 24-12 defeat at the hands of Brisbane, they must win their final two games, then hope for the best. Somehow, after winning six of their first seven games, their fate lies partly in the hands of others.
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Dragons in free fall after loss to Broncos
After falling 2 points behind early on, Brisbane bounced back to grab an easy win over St George.
St George Illawarra were hit with some late injury blows but managed to produce a spirited performance against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, a venue where they hadn't won since 2009. Now, in one of the great lop-sided recent runs, Brisbane have won 15 of their past 16 meetings against the Red V.
They tried and tried and tried some more. In the second half, the battered the Broncos line time and again, mostly coming up short. Undone by the quality of their opposition and a kicking game that spluttered badly all night, it never looked entirely convincing.
Brisbane paid the price for Anthony Milford's wobbly kicking. He converted just two of Brisbane's five tries and they would have won far more handsomely should Jordan Kahu not have carried a groin injury.
But the Broncos five-eighth was superb in general play, ending the night with a try of his own and having a hand in two others. Like many of Wayne Bennett's squad, he is hitting top gear at exactly the right time of the season.
The equation now for the Dragons looks dire. They have no choice but to beat the Panthers (away) and Bulldogs (ANZ) and hope that teams like the Cowboys, Manly and Penrith go ice cold over the final two rounds.
Had they not dropped matches to the Knights and South Sydney - in fairness, teams that are enjoying late-season bumps in form - they could have already sewn up a spot. Now they seem destined to be on the outside looking in once again.
If Josh Dugan recorded the game at home, he would be well advised to fast-forward the first 11 minutes. This wasn't the start the Dragons needed if they were to give themselves any chance of an upset.
After just four minutes, Dugan looked to be in the right place as he swallowed the flat cross-kick from Milford right on his own line. But he couldn't drag it onto his chest, instead watching it bobble in the tackle of Tautau Moga and be flopped upon by a waiting Alex Glenn.
Up the other end, Dugan had the perfect chance to make amends. But with the tryline begging - he quite literally had to fall over and he would have scored - he lost the ball once more, this time as Corey Oates made a desperate lunge from behind.
Then, a ray of sunshine. Dugan helped his side get on the board when he poked a grubber through and prop Paul Vaughan leapt like a Springbok to score under the posts.
As it was for most of the night, it was a short burst for the Dragons before any hope was quickly snuffed out. Milford danced his way over on 20 minutes, then Ben Hunt served up a sensational cross-kick, on the second tackle, to send Kahu racing down the touchline.
That's the kind of play Hunt can produce and they would be hoping he continues that sort of bold approach when he joins the Red V for the 2018 campaign. For now, he might have been the man that sunk their season.
Glenn scored again after 50 minutes to make it 20-6, before the Dragons gave a huff and a puff when Tim Lafai crossed to make it 20-12. They weren't losing through lack of effort but everything looked clunky compared to Brisbane's quick hands and fast feet.
Oates provided a stunning finish with ten to play when he took flight and somehow managed to avoid the touchline during his spectacular put-down. He's back in form and Brisbane are surely now a real and present danger to the dominance of the Storm.
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