James Packer has power, wealth and fame. Why then is he marking his fiftieth birthday - an event most successful people use to celebrate their achievements and relationships - in seclusion at a ranch in north-east Argentina?
Surrounded by a small coterie of fiercely loyal acolytes, Packer's precise birthday plans for Friday are a CPH state secret. An official source says they will be "low key". They may involve a walking trip with a few male friends.
If Packer does plan to commune with nature, it will be a style shift. Although not apparently a big drinker, his partying with former business partner and film director Brett Ratner has attained legendary status on both sides of the Pacific.
Both men enjoy private jets, male company and glamorous women. A cocky player, Ratner dismissively bragged about sleeping with X-Men actress Olivia Munn and then claimed to have forgotten who she was.
Packer exceptionalism
Packer, the scion of a media dynasty, resents the attention paid to his personal life, especially in media outlets he considers hostile to himself and his family. Yet he fuels that attention with playboy-like behaviour that only a billionaire or movie star could get away with.
Call it Packer exceptionalism of the third generation.
Packer's wild ways have distracted attention from a serious analysis of his business decisions. In some tough industries, Packer's performance hasn't been bad.
Kerry Packer died on Boxing Day, 2005. An abusive father, Kerry had ridiculed the intelligence and business skills of his 38-year-son. History suggests he underestimated James.
Another Alan Bond
The month James turned 40 he sold half the family's media business, which included the Nine television network and ACP magazines, to a private equity fund, CVC. A year later he sold it the rest. The total price, including debt, was $5.3 billion, according to Reuters.
CVC was James's Alan Bond, who famously bought Nine from Kerry Packer and sold it back at a big loss. CVC's investment in television (it sold the magazines for $500 million) was mostly wiped out when Nine almost went bankrupt in 2012.
By putting aside family nostalgia, Packer saved himself from becoming another old-money victim of the historic advertising shift away from traditional media. Grandfather Sir Frank Packer, who started publishing popular women's magazines in 1933, might have been pleased at the wealth preservation. Kerry would have found some reason to criticise.
Casino riches
James moved the capital into gambling, where he has had more success than failures, although at a high reputational cost. He lost a lot of money in the US, which was more than offset by a $3 billion profit in Macau.
So far, the casino riches have covered many times the losses from bad fortune, bad timing and bad judgment that were the One.Tel, Network Ten, RatPac, Nobu and other investments.
The Sydney casino, which is also a property play, is his next big bet. Due to open in 2021, its success remains an open question. The rivers of Chinese gold flowing that underpin the grand project are slowing, as Packer must know.
In private, Packer rants that he doesn't get credit for his business acumen, say people who know him.
Turning 50
Now that he has turned 50, an age at which many people become introspective, Packer has an opportunity to recast his reputation.
He could swap the secrecy, the models and party boys in the South Pacific for a more conventional businessman's life.
He could lift some of the Packer mystique that served his bullying father so well and become a humbler, more open mogul.
He could show the world - not just pesky writers like me - that he's a man of substance.
Because the longer Packer continues his weird life, the less seriously it takes him.
Aaron Patrick is a senior writer at the Australian Financial Review and is writing a biography of James Packer tentatively titled The Curse of the Mogul.
