The Tally Room

I’ve pulled together the primary vote totals as of this afternoon and calculated swings for each council and ward in urban NSW.

I’ve restricted my analysis to councils between Newcastle and Shellharbour, as councils outside this area are almost always dominated by independents.

Across this region, here were the total votes for the three large parties:

Party	Votes	%	Swing
Labor	350,043	28.34	+5.62
Liberal	348,983	28.26	-3.54
Greens	124,154	10.05	+1.45
Others	411,937	33.35	-3.52

Labor and Liberal have polled pretty much exactly the same vote.

The Liberal swing would’ve been worse if not for the Northern Beaches council, where the Liberal Party ran for the first time in the former Pittwater and Warringah councils.

The Liberal Party polled almost 63% in the Hills, which is the only place where they polled a majority of the primary vote. Labor’s vote peaked at 49.75% in Burwood. The Greens polled 29.7% in the Inner West, as well as over 20% in Waverley and Woollahra.

Labor’s largest swing was in Ryde, where their vote increased by almost 14%. They also gained a swing of over 13% in the new Cumberland council, and swings of over 10% in both Wollongong and Newcastle.

The biggest drop in the Liberal vote came in Newcastle. The Liberal primary vote crashed from 29.5% to 15.6% after a number of the party’s lead candidates were disendorsed after nominations closed.

The Greens vote rose in most councils. The party gained a swing of 9.7% in Woollahra, 7.9% in Waverley and 6% in Hornsby. The Greens vote only rose slightly in the Inner West (arguably the Greens most important council), with swings ranging from 13% in Ashfield ward to -10% in Balmain.

I’ve uploaded the spreadsheet listing my estimates of vote totals and swings for each LGA and ward in the urban area and you can download it here.

I’ve also made this map where you can toggle between layers showing the swings for Labor, Liberal and Greens in this region (you can zoom out to see Newcastle and Wollongong/Shellharbour).

In this post I will quickly summarise the state of play in the 14 most populous councils I have analysed (excluding Ku-ring-gai, where no tickets are standing across multiple wards). I’ll be back later today with some analysis of the swings across the councils and over the coming days I’ll do deeper analysis of some of the more interesting councils.

Labor has won a majority in Canterbury-Bankstown and Newcastle, with a chance in Cumberland, Georges River and Wollongong.

The Liberal Party has won a majority in the Hills, and a majority in Hornsby with the casting vote of new mayor Philip Ruddock.

Independents or Greens hold the balance of power in the remaining councils.

Bayside

Labor has won at least six seats, with the Liberal Party on five, along with three independents. Greens candidate Greta Werner is leading Labor for the final seat in Mascot. If Labor win that seat they will hold seven seats. Labor is likely to run the council, with the support of Greens and independents.

Canterbury-Bankstown

Labor has won at least eight seats, and is leading in a ninth seat. The Liberal Party has won five seats.

Greens candidate Linda Eisler is currently leading Our Local Community for the third seat in Canterbury ward, while Labor’s second candidate is leading Our Local Community for the third seat in Revesby. Regardless of these results, Labor will hold an absolute majority.

Central Coast

Labor has won six seats on the Central Coast, with the Liberal Party on at least four. Five independents are currently on track to win, but two of these independents could potentially lose to the Liberal Party. So the best case scenario for the Liberals would put them even with Labor, with independents holding the balance of power regardless.

Cumberland

Labor has a real shot at a majority here. They have won at least six seats, with chances of three more, while the Liberal Party has won four. Our Local Community’s Paul Garrard has won a seat in South Granville. The Liberal Party will likely win a fifth council seat in South Granville, where they lead former Auburn councillor Hicham Zraika.

Labor’s second candidate is leading in Greystanes ahead of Our Local Community, while the second Labor candidate is leading a wide field of candidates with a shot in Wentworthville. The Residents Action Group Cumberland is leading the second Labor candidate in Regents Park. If Labor wins two of these three contests, they will hold a majority.

Georges River

Labor has won at least six seats, with a chance of two more which would give them a majority. The Liberal Party has won five, along with at least one independent and the Kogarah Residents Association.

A second independent is leading the second Labor candidate in Mortdale, while the Greens candidate is leading the second Labor candidate in Peakhurst. If Labor pulls ahead in both these races they will win a majority.

Hornsby

Former federal Liberal minister Philip Ruddock should easily win the mayoralty, with 47% of the primary vote. His party will win at least four out of nine seats on the council. His vote, plus a mayoral casting vote, should allow the Liberals to run the council.

The Greens have won at least two seats, while they are leading Labor for a third seat. Two other Liberals have a chance, but are currently trailing a Labor candidate and an independent in the B and C wards respectively.

Inner West

Labor and the Greens have each won at least five seats.

The Liberal Party has also won two seats, in Ashfield and Leichhardt. Progressive independent Pauline Lockie has also won in Stanmore ward.

Two seats remain outstanding. #2 Labor candidate Linda Kelly has taken the lead ahead of independent John Stamolis and the Liberal candidate for the final seat in Balmain, while progressive independent Victoria Pye is narrowly leading conservative independent Victor Macri in Marrickville.

If Stamolis and Pye were to both win, it would allow Greens and independents to form a majority. If Kelly wins in Balmain, Labor would have a choice of working with Liberals or the progressive independents. If Stamolis and Macri win, Labor would need one of the independents and both Liberals to run the council. If Kelly and Macri win, Labor will have a wide range of options.

Newcastle

Labor has won a majority on Newcastle council. They will win the mayoralty, and second seats in Wards 3 and 4, giving them a total of seven out of 13 on the council.

The independents look set to win four seats. The Greens have won a seat in Ward 1. The Greens and Liberals are competing for the final seat in Ward 2. The Liberals have a substantial lead, but there is a large Labor surplus that could be enough to re-elect Greens councillor Therese Doyle.

Northern Beaches

No party will hold a majority here. Your Northern Beaches, led by former Warringah mayor Michael Regan, have won at least four seats and are leading in two others. The Liberal Party has won five seats. At least one other independent has won a seat.

The Greens are leading Labor for the final seat in Curl Curl. Your Northern Beaches are leading the Greens in Manly. The final two seats are a mess in Pittwater. Right now former mayor Alex McTaggart and Your Northern Beaches look set to win these two seats, but the Greens, and former Greens councillor (now independent) Selena Griffith are in with a shot.

Overall there are two blocks, and they will need to work with other independents and Greens to run the council.

Parramatta

Overall control of the council is still in play. The Liberal Party have won six seats, while Labor has won five. There are four wards where Greens and independents are competing for seats, and these races will determine the balance of power.

Michelle Garrard (daughter of former mayor Paul, who has been elected to Cumberland Council) is in the lead for the Our Local Community (OLC) party in Dundas, narrowly ahead of the Local Independent Party (LIP).

Independent Lorraine Wearne is in the lead in Epping, trailed by LIP and the Greens.

The Greens are leading for the final seat in Parramatta, ahead of LIP and OLC. Our Local Community is narrowly ahead of the Greens in Rosehill ward.

If the Greens win all three of the races they are contesting (very unlikely) they would be able to form a stable majority with Labor. The Our Local Community team has received preferences from the Liberals, which suggests something about how they might side on the next council. If they hold both of theirs, they’d be able to work with the Liberal Party. The Local Independent Party received preferences from Labor: if they did well then they could, together with the Greens, support a Labor-led majority.

Randwick

It appears that Randwick will elect five Labor, four Liberals, three Greens and three independents, including two on former mayor Noel D’Souza’s ticket. This is a shift away from the major parties, who each won six seats in 2012. A number of options will be available to form a majority.

Ryde

No party will win a majority in Ryde.

On current numbers, Labor and Liberal are winning four seats, along with two Greens and two independents. It is possible the second Liberal in Central ward could fall behind an independent, and it’s also possible the Greens could lose one of their two seats to the Liberals.

The Hills

No change in the Hills. The Liberal Party is on track to hold their nine seats, alongside three Labor. In addition, the Liberals will win the newly created directly-elected mayor.

Wollongong

There appears to be a close race between independent Gordon Bradbery (33.6%) and Labor’s David Brown 28.0%. The Liberal candidate is on 16.6% and the Greens are on 11%, so their preferences will be decisive.

There is one council seat in play – Labor is leading the Liberal for the last seat in Ward 2. If Labor wins both of these races they will hold a majority of 7 out of 13 seats.

10:21pm – Let’s look at Bayside. Labor is on six seats (thanks to a massive vote in the Port Botany ward), the Liberal Party is on five, there are three independents, and one seat is still in play. Greens candidate Greta Werner has a solid lead over the second Labor candidate.

9:58pm – Labor has a chance of a majority in Georges River. They are currently leading for seven seats. Their second candidate in Peakhurst ward is in danger of falling behind Greens candidate Anne Wagstaff. If they can hold on in Peakhurst, and overtake the independent in Mortdale, they will win 8/15 seats.

9:35pm – Let’s talk about Wollongong. It looks reasonably clear that Labor has won five seats, the Liberal Party has won three, the Greens have won two, and sitting mayor Gordon Bradbery has won an ordinary council seat (which will go to his running mate if he wins the mayoralty). The fourth seat in Ward 2 is a close race between Labor and Liberal. If Labor win that seat, that will give them six out of twelve ordinary seats.

In terms of the mayoralty, Gordon Bradbery leads on 32%, followed by 28.1% for Labor’s David Brown, 16.7% for Liberal candidate John Dorahy and 12% for Greens candidate Mithra Cox. Liberal and Greens preferences will be crucial, and if they swing the mayoralty to Labor it could give the party a majority.

9:31pm – Labor is currently on track for a majority on Cumberland council but that’s on the basis of three close races. Labor is narrowly ahead of Our Local Community in Granville, and even more narrowly ahead of the same party in Greystanes, while Labor is the clear leader in a wide-open race for the final seat in Wentworthville. Wins in those three races would give them eight out of fifteen seats.

9:24pm – I’m calling a Labor majority for Newcastle council. On the basis of six and five booths respectively, Labor’s second candidate has a healthy lead in both Wards 3 and 4, which would give them seven seats including the lord mayor. The second Labor candidate is narrowly ahead of Greens councillor Therese Doyle in Ward 2.

9:19pm – Bayside council: current figures are 6 Labor, 5 Liberal, 3 independents and 1 Green, but Labor has a chance of winning a majority if their vote improves slightly in the Mascot and Rockdale wards.

9:09pm – The Greens are now leading for two seats on Parramatta council – with over 13% in Parramatta ward and 12.7% in Rosehill ward. At the moment this would produce a result of 7 Liberals, 5 Labor, 2 Greens and the last seat in Epping going either to Lorraine Wearne or the Local Independent Party, with that person effectively holding the balance of power.

9:02pm – In Balmain ward of the Inner West, John Stamolis has moved into third place. Labor’s vote is so high that their second candidate, immediate former councillor Linda Kelly, is in the hunt. Kelly is ranked fourth, with the Liberal candidate dropping to fifth.

8:48pm – Labor appears to be on track for a majority on Newcastle council. To achieve this they need to win a second seat in two wards, plus the mayoralty. They are well out in front for lord mayor, and are currently on track for a second seat in three out of four wards, which would give them eight out of 13 seats. I’ll wait for a few more booths, but it won’t be long before I’ll consider calling Newcastle.

8:42pm – On current figures in Georges River – Labor is on seven seats, Liberal 5, and three for independents.

8:31pm – The Cumberland administrator put up a question to the voters asking if they wished to maintain the council’s five pools – over 75% are voting Yes. Meanwhile Labor has a real shot at winning a majority on that council. They are currently leading for six seats and we have no real figures from Regents Park, so that would give them at least seven. They are also almost winning a second seat in Granville ward. A second Labor councillor in Granville or Regents Park (along with the second in Greystanes and Wentworthville where they are leading) would give them a majority.

8:24pm – The new Central Coast council looks set to be dominated by independents. On current primary votes the council would include 5 Labor, 3 Liberals and seven independents, although a small shift could see four of those independents lose, producing a result of 6 Labor, 5 Liberal, one Green and three independents.

8:12pm – The Greens and Labor will each win five seats on the Inner West council. It also seems likely that progressive independent Pauline Lockie will win a seat in Stanmore and that Liberal councillor Julie Passas will be re-elected in Ashfield. The other three seats will decide whether a bloc of progressive independents or Liberals will hold the balance of power. Currently left-leaning Victoria Pye is leading right-leaning Vic Macri in Marrickville, along with a big Greens surplus to help her along. The Liberal Party is over a quota in Leichhardt.

So the control of council will come down to Balmain, where the Greens are underperforming compared to their other wards, and progressive independent John Stamolis is just behind Liberal candidate Stephen Meates. Labor is polling very well so their preferences will be crucial in deciding that race.

8:08pm – Your Northern Beaches seem to have the edge on the Liberal Party in the Northern Beaches. On current figures the council will be 6 YNB, 5 LIB, 2 GRN and two other independents.

7:54pm – Looks like Labor has locked in a majority on Canterbury-Bankstown. They’re polling about 60% in Bankstown, Bass Hill and Roselands, giving them six seats, plus one each in Revesby and Roselands (although they have a chance of a ninth seat in Roselands).

7:44pm – I’m finding the Marrickville ward of Inner West interesting. Former independent mayor Victor Macri is trailing in a distant fourth behind newcomer progressive independent Victoria Pye – 20.7% to 12%. Meanwhile the Greens’ Col Hesse has a substantial surplus with Labor’s Sam Iskandar 23.5% – the Greens’ surplus will improve Pye’s position. If Pye defeats Macri it will strengthen the chance of the Greens forming a governing majority, rather than Labor.

7:41pm – Gordon Bradbery is now leading with 31.8%, ahead of Labor’s David Brown on 26.3%, Liberal John Dorahy on 18.6% and Greens Mithra Cox on 11.5%.

7:19pm – We’re getting small numbers of results from the Inner West, but I won’t make predictions yet.

7:18pm – Things are much less clear in Wollongong. Sitting lord mayor Gordon Bradbery (an independent) is in third place on 18.7% off two booths, trailing the Labor and Liberal candidates.

7:15pm – Labor lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes is looking good to win re-election in Newcastle – she’s on 43% off five booths, with her two closest rivals on about 18%.

7:10pm – Very small vote in all five wards in Northern Beaches currently has Your Northern Beaches on track for 6 seats, Liberal 5, Greens 2, and two other independents. The Liberals look unlikely to be able to stitch together a majority.

6:40pm – Polls have closed forty minutes in councils across New South Wales. Join me as I track the results. We should start to see some data after 7pm.