- Le bureau des légendes djihadistes | Mediapart
On the spycraft of ISIS. - Algérie : Ahmed Ouyahia, une conception centralisée et autoritaire du pouvoir | Middle East Eye
Abed Charef. - Torture and National Security in al-Sisi's Egypt | HRW
HRW's website banned in Egypt over this. - La Tunisie expulse manu militari le prince Moulay Hicham - Le Desk
Why would Tunisia kick out a dissident Moroccan prince? - What’s Behind Saudi Arabia’s Turn Away From the Taliban? | The Diplomat
- En Egypte, même la jeunesse aisée rêve de quitter le pays
In Egypt, even elite youth want to leave. - Qatar row: Gulf hoaxers lobby UK parliament | al-bab
- Soros Slander Reveals Anti-Semitism at the Heart of the Far Right | The Nation
These mainstream right-wing attacks against Soros are really vile. - Senate Panel Slashes Military Aid to Egypt | US News
- Libya: Open letter - European governments are feeding the business of suffering | Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) International
- Jadaliyya | Egypt’s Power Game: Why Cairo is Boosting its Military Power
Nael Shama. - Morocco: King Brushes Off Evidence of Police Abuse | HRW
Prosecutors claim "silmya" ("peaceful") chant is code word for: attack the police - Nouvelles révélations sur l'espionnage marocain en France - Le Desk
- Imagined Arabies - Carnegie Middle East Center
Charles Paul Freund on Arab speculative/dystopian fiction - The Evolution of Morocco’s Human Rights Movement | Arab Reform Initiative
- Malise Ruthven · The Saudi Trillions · LRB 7 September 2017
- Morocco’s Refusal to Listen - The New York Times
- Morocco’s Stability Is Roiled by Monthslong Protests Over Fishmonger’s Death - The New York Times
Aida Alami reporting from Hoceima. - Europe's "Migrant Hunters" | Foreign Affairs
- Since Trump’s Mideast visit, extrajudicial killings have spiked in Egypt - The Washington Post
- Google Critic Ousted From Think Tank Funded by the Tech Giant - The New York Times
Shame on New America. - 'I Am Not Useful for My Camera if I Die': A Syrian Photographer's View - The New York Times
Such courage. - Backed by Italy, Libya enlists militias to stop migrants - The Washington Post
- White House 'pressuring' intelligence officials to find Iran in violation of nuclear deal | The Guardian
- Bloodshed, Liminality & The Ends Of Egypt’s Revolution | CONNECTED in CAIRO
- Middle East Critique: Vol 26, No 3
Issue on The Ends of Revolution in the Arab Middle East - An Unpopular Referendum - Carnegie Middle East Center
Interview with Joost Hiltermann on Kurds
Majda Rumi edition.
Hat tip @liamstack, who also linked to this wonderful cover of this song by a young performer on the Arabic version of The Voice Kids.
- How a Shadowy Imam Evaded Scrutiny and Forged the Barcelona Cell - The New York Times
- Washington's Unfocused Decision on Aid to Egypt - WINEP
Eric Trager - Cutting Off Cairo - Carnegie Middle East Center
Michele Dunne - US aid cuts to Egypt 'will not alter Sisi's behaviour' | Egypt | Al Jazeera
- The limits of Egypt's role in the Syria crisis
- Q&A with Jalel Harchaoui: A Libyan ‘agreement’ in Paris? | MadaMasr
- Algeria’s Black Fear – Africa is a Country
- Egypt’s North Korea Connection | Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED)
- POMED Snapshot – Why Did the Arab Uprisings Turn Out as They Did? A Survey of the Literature | Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED)
- Trump has sent the right signal to Egypt. But there’s more he needs to do. - The Washington Post
Editorial says take aid away from Egypt and give it to Tunisia - Saudi Arabia’s attempt at a Qatari coup backfired - now wait for the blowback | Middle East Eye
Interesting details on tribal influences - by Madawi al-Rasheed - A New Tune on Women’s Rights in the Arab World - The New York Times
Shereen El Feki. - Egypt imprisoned me for defending human rights. But I haven’t lost hope. - The Washington Post
Aya Hijazi calls for withholding US human rights aid - Israel has a gas conundrum
Who's behind Dolphinus Holdings, the Egyptian consortium buying Israeli gas?
Rather predictably – as predictable as his bid for the presidency was after he led the 2013 coup – Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi has been in recent months airing trial balloons on amending the 2013 constitution (supposed to be, in theory at least, a consensual text that brings together a variety of political factions, even it excluded the Muslim Brotherhood and others) to allow himself to become, like his predecessors, a president for life. Cue the protests from his defenders that these are ill-advised initiatives by his over-eager fans; but of course even if Sisi may not be as daring as pushing for such changes now, he is certain to do so after he wins what was supposed to be his second and last term in the 2018 presidential elections. You can expect him to reluctantly answer the popular cry for him to serve his country, sacrificing himself (he had been looking forward to quiet retirement, etc.) as countless other dictators have done so before him, from Sisi's friend Vladimir Putin to his arch-enemy Recep Tayyep Erdogan.
Arguably, Egyptian constitutional principles have been eroded to such an extent under Sisi that this is simply making official a de facto state of affairs. The symbolism of the formal change, however, is serious, as could be legal repercussions that further enshrine today's state of emergency into the constitution. It would further push the regime's opponents – not all cuddly revolutionary types, to be sure – into a zero-sum logic and amplify the rationale that all hope is lost. Putting term limits on the presidency was, after all, one of the few political gains made among the generally meager returns of the Egyptian uprising. It offers, even from today's bleak prospects, the possibility of an eventual change in leadership that might prevent the ossification of the regime (see Algeria today, Egypt under Mubarak, etc.) This is why even mild-mannered critics of the current Egyptian regime who supported the 2013 coup and Sisi's presidential bid are aghast at this turn of events. The piece below, penned by the founder of the Social Democratic Party, is a case in point.
Thanks to our friends at Industry Arabic for making this feature possible. Please check them out if you need your documents translated into Arabic, they do a great job with a quick turnaround.
Amending the Constitution Is a Novel Egyptian Disaster
Mohammed Abou al-Ghar, al-Masri al-Youm, 21 August 2017
We have heard the voices of regime mouthpieces – who have personally benefited from the current regime in the form of high-level positions and other privileges – calling for the constitution to be amended. The reason? To extend the president’s term, possibly indefinitely. I would like to remind you that since 1952, none of Egypt’s previous presidents have voluntarily left office. Mohammed Naguib was deposed in a coup, Abdel Nasser died after 18 years in power, Sadat was assassinated after 11 years in office, Mubarak was overthrown by revolution after 29 years of rule, and Morsi was deposed by the people and the army after just a one year. So why would Sisi enter this vicious cycle? Is there some logic in his thinking?
Some say that under dictatorial rule, every president carries out unconstitutional and illegal measures, such that if he ever leaves office, he and his cronies would face trial and retribution. Therefore, in such systems, the president only leaves by force or in death.
The regime’s henchmen are the beneficiaries of this spectacle. They are the ones who adorn any president who undermines the constitution. Then they demand that he remain in office for life, not out of love for him, but out of love for themselves and their positions. Now, are there legal or popular challenges and problems to amending the constitution?
- Lawmakers must remember what happened in the days of Mubarak when parliament tried to make controversial amendments to the constitution. That was after all one of the reasons for the end of Mubarak’s rule. They must, no doubt, be cautious. Indeed, the skill, experience and intelligence of Fathi Sorour, the distinguished university professor and the brilliant lawyer, has no equal in the current parliamentary leadership.
- The world has completely changed in the 21st century. It is true that terrorism in the Middle East has given the Egyptian regime broad freedom to act with US, European, Gulf, and Israeli support, but these things do not last forever. Moreover, such support bears a high cost that is now being paid for by Egypt’s freedom to make its own decision. The time will come when the president will no longer be able to pay that price; the support will dry up, and with massive foreign and domestic debts, the situation will be an impossible one unless Egypt can maintain political cohesion and keep its people satisfied. The amendments will cause a new rift that will transform Tiran and Sanafir into a profound gulf, with the people on one side and the President on the other.
- Extending the president’s first term is legally impossible both in form and substance. The term is a legally binding contract between two parties – the people elected Sisi for 4 years, no more, no less. That cannot be changed with a law or a referendum or anything else, and any attempts at a referendum would be crazy.
- The constitution contains an article that clearly states that it is not permissible to change the articles pertaining to election of the president. The wisdom behind that article is well-established, because all of Egypt’s former presidents wanted to rule for life. Any change to this article would have the intention of keeping the president in office indefinitely. Egyptians want to see the day where a former president ends his term and leaves office: they want to experience rotation of power.
- Any planned constitutional amendments that have received approval to appear on a constitutional referendum must first present a referendum to abolish the constitution, as this article cannot be amended. Abolishing the Constitution would also mean abolishing the legitimacy of June 30, the very basis on which the current president was elected. Then we would write a new constitution to the current leadership’s liking before presenting it for referendum once again. Are you ready for two referendums in such a short time, followed by presidential elections, just to consolidate the president’s stay in office?
- Is the Egyptian regime capable of holding an honest referendum that gives everyone in the media the chance to speak their mind and then follow that up with presidential elections with the same level of transparency? Of course not. The media is almost completely nationalized and will not allow any competitor the opportunity to express his opinion or explain his point of view; it would just as soon assassinate him as let an opposition voice speak freely.
- The regime believes itself to be quite strong, and in fact it is quite strong with considerable foreign aid, but there are severe internal weaknesses, including terrorism and the serious erosion of the economy caused by misguided policies and an unwillingness to listen to any other point of view, and due to the imprisonment of thousands, the shredding of the constitution and the law, chaos, and corruption. In such circumstances, we must reach an understanding with the people and agree upon a future policy in order to overcome our terrible problems, and not by drafting dangerous constitutional amendments that paralyze the country and put us in the middle of yet another mess.
- Finally, I do not believe that this was [Speaker of Parliament Ali] Abdel Aal’s idea or that of his colleagues because when one of them brought it up not too long ago, he was told to shut up and be silent. Please be careful, Egypt has 21 million angry young men with no permanent or regular work.
Please think a little and wait until next time, there is no need to be so reckless. Leave well enough alone!
Rise up, Egyptian! Egypt always calls on you!
Most of these are from last week, as we slowly gear up after holidays...
- Is Chechnya Taking Over Russia? - The New York Times
Interesting piece by Ekaterina Sokirianskaia. Perhaps this is the Russian model in MENA too. - Can Anyone Stop Iran From Taking Over Iraq? - The New York Times
Zaid al-Ali - You are the product · LRB 17 August 2017
Quit Facebook. - Tunisian president vows to usher in new era of gender equality | Middle East Eye
- Jihadists strike across West Africa | FDD's Long War Journal
- Beyond the Qatar Crisis - Carnegie
Consequences on energy and power markets in Gulf - Tunisia’s Risky War on Corruption - Carnegie
- Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood claims victory in local elections | Middle East Eye
- Egypt signs $1.24 bln light rail deal with AVIC, China Railway Group -Xinhua
Great if this is well-implemented, Cairo needs it. - Telling the truth in Tunisia
@ursulind on transitional justice and the hurdles it faces - How the Islamic State Rose, Fell and Could Rise Again in the Maghreb
New Crisis Group report. - The Waking Nightmare: Post-revolutionary Egyptian Dystopias
- Egypt opens military base, the largest in northwest region
- After Striking Deal With Hamas, Abbas Rival Mohammed Dahlan Says Gaza-Egypt Border to Reopen
- NYTimes: Saudi King’s Son Plotted Effort to Oust His Rival
- Egypt’s Copts keep the faith in the fight against Isis
Heba Saleh. - Ex-Al Jazeera staff 'linked to Egypt security agency'
This is getting sordid - and it's unclear whether it's about the case or the Qatar crisis. - Jack Shaheen, Who Resisted and Cataloged Stereotyping of Arabs, Dies at 81 - The New York Times
I visited Tunis last month and one thing I was interested in finding out more about was what kind of discussions Tunisian feminists are having in the aftermath of the Ben Ali regime -- and of the detailed and horrifying revelations of human rights abuses against women (particularly Islamist women) that took place in this most "feminist" of Arab countries, one that does have the most progressive legislation on women's rights in the region. I find the questions raised by state feminism and the divide between secular and Islamic feminists fascinating. I wrote about it for Al Fanar:
Meanwhile, independent female activists who criticized the regime faced harassment and vilification. And, as has been revealed by recent testimony collected by the country’s Truth and Dignity Commission, women associated with the Islamist movement were subjected to shocking abuse, including rape, torture in detention and forced divorce.
“Was the Tunisian regime ‘feminist’ out of political necessity and to mask a democratic deficit…or out of modernist conviction? Does it even deserve to be called feminist?” writes Bessis. “What’s certain is that the regime was masterful in its ability to use women.”
It was also successful in dividing women. Under Ben Ali, says Mahmoud, Islamist and secularist women “might as well have existed in two different universes.” Secularist leftist women “were engaged in a political struggle with Islamists” and “did not do much to document or help Islamist women with what they were going through.”
“The dictatorship broke relations between women,” Abdellatif told me.
Recent posts:
- On the protest movement in Morocco's Rif
- “a greater number of ignorant dumbos than any other republic”
- Sisi's "non-regime"
- Is the State Dept. losing patience with KSA/UAE over Qatar?
Recent links:
- Families say 3 Egyptians accidently killed by army airstrike - The Washington Post
- Rif : les sécuritaires déclarent la guerre à Driss El Yazami - Le Desk
- Elaine Mokhtefi · Diary: Panthers in Algiers · LRB
- Au Maroc, le Rif défie le roi, par Aboubakr Jamaï (Le Monde diplomatique, juillet 2017)
- Maroc : une guerre feutrée pour le pouvoir divise les islamistes
On division inside the PJD. - Egypt's Sisi Gives With One Hand, and Takes Away With the Other
David Butter. - Hamas to create buffer zone with Egypt to improve ties - The Washington Post
- A Way Out of the Qatar Mess - The New York Times
Senator Bob Corker wants to halt arms sales to all Gulf states. - Economists Puzzled By Unexpected Plunge In Saudi Foreign Reserves | Zero Hedge
- Corruption Crackdown Intensifies in Tunisia, and the People Cheer - The New York Times
- Cairobserver — Icon at Risk: Hotel du Lac in Tunis
- Saudi ups the ante: What next for embattled Qatar? | Middle East Eye
Christopher Davidson says dig in for the long haul. - Hamas goes to Cairo « LRB blog
Mouin Rabbani. - Will Get Fooled Again - Seymour Hersh, Welt, and the Khan Sheikhoun Chemical Attack - bellingcat
Elliott Higgins. - Syria: Trump‘s Red Line - WELT
Seymour Hesh claims US knew Assad not behind Khan Sheikoun attack. - If Baghdadi is dead, next IS leader likely to be Saddam-era officer | Reuters
Send Rumsfeld to cut a deal. - A Macron Doctrine?
Joseph Bahout. - The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya
Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, and Karim Mezran. - Is the Saudi Prince Up to His New Job? « LobeLog
Thomas W. Lippman. - Saudi succession reshuffle: A threat to the house of cards
Robert Springborg. - The long-term cost of Saudi succession shake-up
Bruce Riedel. - Libya's Shifting Sands: Derna | Al Jazeera
Interesting documentary on ISIS in Libya - Qatar Airways: Why the world's favorite airline wants a piece of No. 74 - American Airlines — Quartz
- The Rehabilitation of Africa’s Most Isolated Dictatorship | Foreign Policy
Eritrea comes out of the cold, with Gulf and Egyptian help - We Need Tunisia in the Fight Against ISIS - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- New book – Pop Culture in North Africa and the Middle East – Hammonda.
Andrew Hammond has updated one of the best book on contemporary Arab culture - Saudi Arabia Deports 15,000 Qatari Camels | Foreign Policy
Absurd headline of the weak. - How to Save Libya From Itself? Protect Its Oil From Its Politics - The New York Times
- Libya’s Increased Oil Production Thwarts OPEC’s Reduction Plans - The New York Times
- The Siege of Doha « LobeLog
Gary Sick, always a must-read on Gulf affairs. - Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Qatar Crisis Heightens Obstacles to the Economic Reform Agenda
- Saudi Arabia Rewrites Succession as King Replaces Heir With Son, 31 - NYTimes.com
The protest movement (known as Hirak Shaabi or hirak for short) that has been going on in Morocco's northern mountainous Rif region for the last eight months was met with a police crackdown over the Eid holiday. In response for calls to protest in the town of Al Hoceima, police blocked roads between Al Hoceima and other towns and imposed what one observers called a "de-facto daytime curfew." Videos filmed by activists circulated online showing larger crowds marching on side streets, and being chased and beaten by riot police. You can see a number of such videos and photos embedded in this coverage by the local independent site Le Desk.
I've written a few things on this lately. For Al Fanar last week, I wrote about the reaction of Moroccan social scientists, who say the Rif region remains misunderstood and that the divisive coverage of the protests and the heavy-handed response of the authorities have missed an opportunity for a serious debate about unequal development among other topics.
For the New York Times Sunday Review, I wrote about what has sparked the protests -- going back to the death of a local fish-seller last Fall, and then much further, to the Rif's long history of revolt and violence. The historian Paul Vermeren calls the Rif’s history “a succession of tragedies.”
One could also say that it all started at least a century ago. In the 1920s, Abdelkrim el-Khattabi led the tribes of the Rif in an insurrection against Spain, establishing an independent territory. After the Spanish and the French -- Morocco's two colonizers -- launched a brutal attack on the region, bombing, gassing and burning villages to the ground, Khattabi was defeated and ended his days in exile in Cairo.
In the late 1950s, after Morocco's independence, the region rose up again. Then Prince Hassan II, future king and father of Mohammed VI, led a bloody military crackdown. He held a lifelong grudge against the region, calling its inhabitants "savages" in a televised speech and withholding public investment in services and infrastructure for four decades.
Mohammed VI reversed that policy. He initiated huge infrastructure projects -- a container port in Tangier, a high-speed train -- in the north of the country. Many other projects and investments have been promised or are underway. But so far the benefits have largely failed to reach the locals, even as they have raised their expectations.
Eric Hobsbawn, writing about leadership in the LRB, in 1991:
A rapid glance at the history of the USA also suggests scepticism about the impact of individual leaders. That great country has, by general consent, probably elected to its Presidency – the post of chief executive and (as we have been reminded recently) commander-in-chief – a greater number of ignorant dumbos than any other republic. It has indeed evolved a political system that makes it almost impossible to elect to the Presidency persons of visible ability and distinction, except by accident and, just possibly, at moments of national crisis. More than this, in the USA Presidents have quite frequently had to be replaced at short notice, whether because of assassination or malfeasance or for other reasons, by Vice-Presidents, who have usually been chosen for every reason other than their leadership potential. And yet the great US ship of state has sailed on as though it made very little difference that the man on the bridge was Andrew Johnson and not Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and not McKinley, Mrs Wilson and not Woodrow Wilson, Truman and not Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson and not Kennedy, Ford and not Nixon, or even that there was nobody in the White House at all – as under Reagan.
Already over a year ago Hisham Hellyer has described Sisi's Egypt as a "non-regime". Ashraf Sherif uses the same term in this POMED interview [PDF], describing an increasingly dire situation:
You have written that al-Sisi’s regime is a “non-regime.” What do you mean?
Under Mubarak, the state was corrupt and vastly inefficient, but it was more predictable. It had a coherent decision-making process and some degree of order to its public policies.
By contrast, the system over which al-Sisi presides is too chaotic to qualify as a modern authoritarian regime. It is a complicated structure of competing patrimonial, self-centered, and oligarchic Mafia-type institutions that act more like the gated fiefdoms of the Mamluk age than modern state bodies. Their incompetence and inefficiency is matched only by the viciousness of their conspiracy-mongering discourse.
Sherif doesn't hold back on other political actors, from Islamists to leftists and liberals, either. And the conclusion is bleak. Worth reading.
There was a statement yesterday by the spokesperson of the State Department, Heather Nauert, whose language and tone seemed to be shifting blame/responsibility for the continuing Qatar crisis on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. See the video below at 01:00.
Transcript here:
Since the embargo was first enforced on June the fifth, the Secretary has had more than twenty phone calls and meetings with Gulf and other regional and international actors. The interactions have included three phone calls and two in-person meetings with the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, three phone calls with the Foreign Minister of Qatar, and three calls with the Qatari Emir. Numerous other calls have taken place with the leaders of UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and others.
**Now that it has been more than two weeks since the embargo started, we are mystified that the Gulf States have not released to the public, nor to the Qataris, the details about the claims that they are making toward Qatar. The more that time goes by the more doubt is raised about the actions taken by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
At this point we are left with one simple question: were the actions really about their concerns regarding Qatar’s alleged support for terrorism or were they about the long, simmering grievances between and among the GCC countries?**
The Secretary is determined to remain engaged as we monitor the situation. He has been delivering the same message to other diplomats overseas. We are encouraging all sides to deescalate tensions and engage in constructive dialogue.
We once again call on all parties to focus on the core, regional and international goal of fighting terrorism, to meet the commitments that were made in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and to constructively resolve this dispute.
Recent posts:
Recent links:
- Trump sells Qatar $12 billion of U.S. weapons days after accusing it of funding terrorism - CBS News
- US naval warships arrive in Qatar for military exercise | Al Jazeera
- Egypt on the edge: how Europe can avoid another crisis in Egypt | European Council on Foreign Relations
- Au Maroc, le «Hirak» des manifestants de la région du Rif gagne tout le royaume | Mediapart
- Morocco’s Devolution Can Wait No Longer | Chatham House
- Hirak: qu’en disent des chercheurs en sciences humaines et sociales? | Telquel.ma
- Report: Egypt's Sisi secretly met Netanyahu in Cairo | Al Jazeera
Back in April 2016. - Édouard Louis’s Novel of the French Working Class
A French "Hillbilly Elegy," on the folks who vote Front National - Crise du Golfe: Mohammed VI propose ses « bons offices » - Le Desk
- The Rise and Fall of a Billionaire Arab Playboy
Adnan Khashoggi died last week. - Qatar-Gulf Crisis: Geoeconomic Implications « LobeLog
Esp. the Iranian perspective - Russia and the Qatar Crisis « LobeLog
Mark Katz - Will Qatar’s Crisis Become Turkey’s Too? « LobeLog
Giorgio Cafiero - What’s behind the Saudi blockade of Qatar? « LRB blog
Oliver Miles - Qatari capital brims with fear, uncertainty and resilience as Arab crisis intensifies
- Jérôme Tubiana · Migrant Smugglers · LRB
Good, sad piece. - TRANSLATED: “Emirati document: Qatar is in Tunisia and we are chasing it” | The Mideastwire Blog
- Les enfants, premières victimes de la guerre… de désinformation – Culture et politique arabes
On the propaganda use of child war victims - Faites l’amour (de la religion), pas la guerre : encore des récits et des manœuvres… – Culture et politique arabes
On that tasteless Ramadan music video - Historical Wounds Are Not Healing in Tunisia
- @ursulind was in Tunis recently, looking at transitional justice and history
- Fifty Years of Occupation | Middle East Research and Information Project
- Egypt’s Government Can’t Crush Independent Journalism - NYT
Lina Attalah - A Deeper Look at the Protests in Morocco | Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED)
- Tensions dans le Rif : "Le Maroc fait face à un désespoir social et économique" - France 24
Good commentary by @aboukbakrj - Blow by blow: the Gulf's extraordinary war of words over Qatar | al-bab
- Plongée dans la tête des kamikazes
- Power Balance Shifts Towards Haftar as LNA Seizes Jufra and Misratans & BDB Withdraw | Libya Analysis
- Why Qatar Is in the Naughty Corner - The New York Times
- The $1bn hostage deal that enraged Qatar’s Gulf rivals
- 5 Arab States Break Ties With Qatar, Complicating U.S. Coalition-Building - NYTimes.com
WTF?
There has been an avalanche of commentary on the crisis between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt (and a bunch of hangers-on) in the last couple of weeks. Some tell you one side or another is going to win, others worry it's the beginning of a new regional war. Everything is pointing to this crisis lasting longer than those who initiated it (Saudi and the UAE) intended it to. Whatever happens in the end, the crisis shows the interplay of several lines of tension among regional powers, from the Iran-Saudi divide to Islamist-anti-Islamist polarisation and revolutionary vs. counter-revolutionary narratives. The overlap is confusing, and so much of the media treatment (including in the US and UK press, a sad statement of the influence of Gulf money and ideology) absurdly biased.
The piece below is written by the noted Lebanese leftist intellectual Gilbert Achar, most recently the author of a well-reviewed book on the Arab uprisings, Morbid Symptoms. Although it is published in the Qatar-owned London-based newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi, Achcar has the merit of being a cheerleader for neither Qatar nor its opponents. He traces the history of Qatar's tensions with its neighbors, the spectacular rise and potential fall of its aggressive foreign policy, its bet on the Muslim Brotherhood, and its opponents' successful efforts to roll back the Arab uprisings. For Achcar, the fundamental difference between the two camps is that Qatar sought to adapt to the Arab Spring by banking on the Muslim Brotherhood successfully harnessing its energies, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE sought to roll it back and restore the establishments that were shaken by the uprisings. It is a view underpinned by his assessment, in Morbid Symptoms, that another revolutionary wave looms – one that may very well wash away those who seek to resist it and reward those that seek to ride it.
As always, this translation is made possible by Industry Arabic. Use them for your Arabic needs.
Campaign Against Qatar is Latest in Series of Attacks by the Region’s Old Establishment
Gilbert Achcar, al-Quds al-Arabi, 7 June 2017
To understand the significance of the violent campaign launched by the Saudi, Emirati, Bahraini, and Egyptian governments against Qatar, we must look beyond the vagaries of the Qatari ransom money allegedly held by Iraq and the charges leveled against Qatar of supporting terrorism. Such charges lose all credibility when they come from actors that have for decades engaged in just that, we must return to the scene before “Arab Spring” to see how it was affected by the Great Uprising.
During the reign of Emir Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, the Emirate of Qatar took an approach to regional affairs not unlike Kuwait’s after it declared independence from Britain in 1961. The announcement outraged the Republic of Iraq, which demanded the emirate be restored as part of its territory. But Kuwait benefited from the tension that existed between Iraq, under the leadership of Abdel Karim Qassim, and Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt, which advocated acceptance of Kuwait’s Arab independence over its status as a British protectorate. And in order to deter its Iraqi neighbor from ambitions of annexation, Kuwait pursued a policy of Arab neutrality, maintaining good relations with the two poles of the so-called “Arab Cold War,” Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
The similarity is that Qatar, as is well-known, has a historically strained relationship with its neighbor, Saudi Arabia, particularly since declaring independence from Britain in 1971. After seizing power in 1995, Emir Hamad pursued a policy that sought to make up for the emirate’s small size by reinforcing ties with the two main axes of regional conflict, as evident by extensive deployments of US troops throughout the Gulf: the United States and the Republic of Iran. Qatar’s success is most obvious in its ability to simultaneously host the United States’ most important regional airbase and cultivate its relationship with Iran and Hezbollah. The policy of good relations with opposing forces also manifests itself in Qatar successfully establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, while also supporting Hamas.
Qatar’s role during the reign of Emir Hamad was not limited to cultivating good relationships with different parties in the Kuwaiti sense, which is neutral and negative, but it also used its substantial wealth to play an active role in regional politics by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. When Saudi Arabia renounced the Brotherhood, after sponsoring it since its inception in 1928, due to its opposition to American intervention in Kuwait in 1990, the weight of Qatar’s political role greatly increased with the establishment of Al-Jazeera, which resonated with Arab society by welcoming Arab voices of opposition, in particular the Muslim Brotherhood.
So when the volcano of the Great Arab Uprising erupted in 2011, Qatar was able to play a significant role through its sponsorship of both the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Jazeera. As a result, the two axes of conflict that had dominated the Arab world – the old establishment and the fundamentalist opposition led by the Muslim Brotherhood – found support in the Gulf Cooperation Council. But while Saudi Arabia supported the old establishment throughout the region – with the exception of Libya where it remained neutral and Syria where sectarianism produced an alliance (between the Assad regime and) Iran – Qatar supported the uprisings, especially where the Brotherhood was involved, with the exception of Bahrain for obvious reasons. The conflict between the Emirate and the Kingdom since the onset of the “Arab Spring” was evident by Qatar’s support for the Tunisian uprising, while Saudi Arabia granted asylum to deposed Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Moreover, the Obama administration saw Qatar as a means to ward off the danger of Arab uprisings that might take root in a way that would threaten US interests. So it played both sides, at times supporting the old establishment with Saudi Arabia (as in Bahrain), and at others, trying to contain the uprisings with Qatar through the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates (like in Tunisia and Egypt). But Qatar’s role urging Washington to adopt a policy of keeping pace with the uprisings was a cause of Saudi indignation, and outraged the United Arab Emirates, which had designated the Muslim Brotherhood public enemy number one. The pressure the two Gulf countries placed on Qatar continued to build after Qatari bets on the Muslim Brotherhood failed to pay out when the Egyptian army overthrew President Mohammed Morsi and violently suppressed the Brotherhood. That was followed by Emir Hamad’s decision to step down in place of his son, the current Emir, Tamim, only to see Gulf pressure reach its first peak in 2014, forcing the new emir to change course.1
After the peak, it seemed that the Gulf conflict had come to an end. Through the consensus of the three aforementioned gulf states to support the Syrian opposition against the Assad Regime, which strained relations between Qatar (and with it, the Muslim Brotherhood) and Iran, and, later, Qatar’s participation in the military campaign against Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Houthis in Yemen – all against the backdrop of a new king ascending to the Saudi throne – it seemed as if peace between GCC members was possible. This trend has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s longtime pursuit of a Sunni consensus against Iran that includes the Muslim Brotherhood and coincides with tension between Riyadh and Cairo. The trend also aligned perfectly with the politics of the Obama administration.
However, Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States changed the equation. The new president is a supporter of a policy of confrontation in the face of change and revolution in the Arab world. He is also extremely hostile to Iran and has an intimate friendship with Israel. Some of his closest advisors have classified the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, concurring in this with the UAE (as evidenced by recently uncovered correspondence of its ambassador to Washington). This fundamental change in the equation led Saudi Arabia to reconcile with al-Sisi’s Egypt, who together, accompanied by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, launched the current frenzied attack on Qatar in order to impose a radical change on its policy.
Thus, the latest episode reversing the Great Arab Uprising and the counterattack launched by the ancien regime all across the region, supported in most arenas by the Gulf axis and by Iran in Syria and Yemen, is almost complete. But a new uncontainable wave of revolution is coming sooner or later (indeed, its harbingers are already visible in Morocco and Tunisia).2 If this day comes and there is no one to contain it, then Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may well regret eliminating Qatar’s role within this space.
Gilbert Achcar is a writer and academic from Lebanon
In the LRB:
Need is everywhere. But what is new is the sense of desperation, which can be felt in the boundaries people are now willing to cross, boundaries that were once inviolate. One day a well-appointed woman, her face fully covered by a niqab, arrived at the hotel where I was staying to beg. When asked politely to leave by the hotel staff, she aggressively refused and insisted on staying, obliging the hotel staff to escort her off the property with force. She wasn’t asking to beg but demanding to. I had never seen this before in Gaza. Another day a teenage boy came to our table quietly pleading for money for his family. By the time I got out my wallet, the staff had approached and gently ushered him out. He didn’t resist. He was educated and well-dressed and I kept thinking he should have been at home studying for an exam or out with his friends by the sea. Instead he was asked to leave the hotel and never return.
Perhaps the most alarming indicator of people’s desperation is the growth of prostitution – this in a traditional and conservative society. Although prostitution has always been present to a small degree in Gaza, it was always considered immoral and shameful, bringing serious social consequences for the woman and her family. As family resources disappear, this appears to be changing. A well-known and highly respected professional told me that women, many of them well-dressed, have come to his office soliciting him and ‘not for a lot of money’. (He also told me that because of the rise of prostitution, it has become harder for girls to get married – ‘no one knows who is pure.’ Families plead with him to provide a ‘safe and decent space’ for their daughters by employing them in his office.) Another friend told me that he had seen a young woman in a restaurant trying to solicit a man while her parents were sitting at a nearby table. When I asked him how he explained such incomprehensible behaviour he said: ‘People living in a normal environment behave in normal ways; people living in an abnormal environment do not.’
And this is something that is backed, made possible, even celebrated by not only Israel, but also every member of the Middle East Quartet and their Arab allies in the Gulf and elsewhere. What it reminds one of are the sanctions the UN Security Council imposed on Iraq in the 1990s, paving the way for the destruction of society and abberations we see today.
- By backing Saudi Arabia’s vision of the Middle East, Trump may be sowing the seeds of conflict - The Washington Post
- Comment la contrebande du pétrole libyen saigne le pays à blanc | Middle East Eye
Interesting piece on fuel smuggling from Libya - Kenza Afsahi et Khalid Mouna : Cannabis dans le Rif central (Maroc).
Long piece on cannabis and the Ref - relevant context to protests - Descendants of Saudi Wahhabism founder distance themselves from Qatar | Reuters
The latest Gulf spat. - Syria: Local Photographers Reflect on Powerful Images of War
- The Cynical Conspiracy War on Egypt’s Christians – Foreign Policy
Eric Trager on MB sectarianism. - After 2016 Assault, A Coptic Christian Grandmother In Egypt Fights For Justice : Parallels : NPR
- Libya's Ansar al-Sharia announces dissolution | Al Jazeera
So where will members go? - Manchester Attack Highlights Foreign Fighters in Libya - WINEP
Aaron Zelin. - ‘I hate tragedy’
@ursulind On the diaries of Egyptian novelist Waguih Ghali - In the Fight Against the Islamic State, U.S. Airstrikes Have Killed Hundreds and Possibly Thousands of Civilians - The New York Times
- Egypt blocks 21 websites, including Al Jazeera: state news agency | Reuters
Including Mada Masr. - Sudan Accuses Egypt of Backing Rebels Ahead of Foreign Minister's Trip
- Years of Tunisian protests converge into one demand: Economic justice | Middle East Eye
- The Lights Are Going Out in the Middle East - The New Yorker
Robin Wright. - Who Counts as al-Qaeda: Lessons from Libya - Lawfare
- No Rivals to the King- SWP
On Morocco - Why Jordan and Morocco are doubling down on royal rule - The Washington Post
- Trump to unveil plans for an ‘Arab NATO’ in Saudi Arabia - The Washington Post
Trump and MBS - what could go wrong? - Top U.S. diplomat for Middle East to retire, U.S. officials say | Reuters
Another one of the most experienced MENA hands is out. - Lesser Evils | The Point Magazine
@ursulind on the French election, seen from France's most Arab city, Marseille - US accuses Syria of mass executions and burning the bodies
Focus on Sidnaya, reminiscent of Auschwitz
I would also recommend this series of post on Mali on the excellent Bridges from Bamako blog:
- How did Mali get here? (Part 5: Institutional explanations)
- How did Mali get here? (Part 4: Geopolitical explanations)
- How did Mali get here? (Part 3: Anti-imperialist explanations)
- How did Mali get here? (Part 2: From military rule to multiparty politics)
- How did Mali get here? (Part 1: Echoes of decolonization)
(the links compiled here every few weeks are first out on our Twitter account, @arabist.)
Bidoun is back! And it has published a series of interviews with folks in Cairo. I know most of the people in these conversations, at least a bit, and I found them all well worth reading.
But my favorite is Lina Attalah -- editor of the independent news site Mada Masr, which has just been blocked -- interviewing Laila Soueif, professor, activist and mother of an extraordinary clan that includes Alaa Abdel-Fattah, Mona Seif and Sanaa Seif. Some of the other exchanges are clouded by a pained ambivalence over the uprising, its aftermath and its meaning. Whether you agree with Soueif's analysis or not, these two women talking to each other both have a hard-won, warm-hearted lucidity.
Here is Soueif on her children:
LS: I don’t think children eat up your career. Your free time, but not your career. But I didn’t mind. When Alaa was born, he became my primary source of entertainment and relaxation. I would only go to social events if I could take him along. Otherwise, I just didn’t go. You lose some freedom, of course, but it’s worth it. If Alaa hadn’t been with me in France, I would have gone mad.
For me, children are a source of emotional satisfaction in the face of distress. I knew of that at the time — once it was clear that Seif would be going to prison again, during that year that I was away from my PhD, I made sure to get pregnant. I knew I wanted to have another child to keep me busy, emotionally.
LA: Alaa always talked about his unique relationship with you, something far deeper than the traditional mother-and-son relationship.
LS: The fact that Seif was in prison when Alaa was very young created a very special relationship between us. Alaa came with me to France when I did my PhD. I had to explain things that you should never have to explain to a child — why his father was in prison, that there are bad police and good police — the good ones, who catch thieves and organize traffic, and the bad ones, who arrest people who oppose the government. You don’t usually need to know these things when you’re four or five.
But Alaa was always sensitive to things. When we were in France, there was a wave of discrimination associated with Jean-Marie Le Pen and the National Front. There were anti-immigrant ads with nooses, and it touched Alaa. He knew that the ad was addressing him somehow. Later, anytime someone said something negative about Christians, I told him that people who say bad things about Christians are like the ones who posted those ads. He became aware.
I think our relationship is also a function of Alaa’s character, though. I’ll never forget — one day, when Mona was a baby in France, I overslept. I’d had a cold. When I woke up I was frantic. It turned out that Alaa had taken Mona from her bed and made her breakfast. He just did this automatically. When Sanaa came along, it was the same. He took care of her, too. Of course Sanaa was extremely headstrong from the beginning. She still is. But when we fought with her, Alaa would take her aside and deal with her.
And on the political situation in Egypt:
LS: Well, some things have changed. What happened in 2011 has changed the country. Where we will go is a different story. Sometimes, I think my life has had three stages. There’s everything before 2000, everything between 2000 and 2011, and then the period after 2011. Before 2000, you were always part of a small group. It might have had a certain significance, but you were always aware that you were in the minority — not only in relation to the authorities, but in relation to the people, too. Those were the years of the Islamists’ ascent. Then from 2000 to 2011, we began to see a movement in the streets that was not Islamist. Of course, the Islamist movement was bigger and stronger, but there was a non-Islamist movement as well.
LA: The era of Kifaya, March 9, and the April 6 Youth Movement.
LS: Yes. And then 2011 expanded that into a real popular movement, which succeeded in bringing down Mubarak and then suffered major defeats. But it was a real popular movement. There’s a big difference between being part of a defeated movement and being part of a defeated popular movement.
LA: What does that difference mean for you? For us?
LS: While our movement is defeated, it has an audience of sympathizers in the hundreds of thousands, if not in millions. It is scattered and confused; it doesn’t know where it wants to go, it’s leaderless, it has every problem in the universe… but it exists. We’ve never lived anything like this before. As someone who lived what feels like an entire lifetime in which there was no movement at all, I wouldn’t call this a desperate place. I wouldn’t call this situation we’re in, where we’re discussing real issues of human rights, a desperate situation. It’s a very developed situation. We’re fighting for the equality of women, against torture, against homophobia. It is a problem that these are tools that were developed in the last stage, when we were a minority dealing with a more careful regime, as opposed to the current one that beats everyone with abandon. But the situation has changed, and it changed because we became dangerous. That’s the significance of being a popular movement, even in defeat. The regime is lashing out because the regime itself is desperate. So the fact that we haven’t been able to develop new tools for the new situation doesn’t mean we haven’t progressed.
LA: What would you point to as evidence of progress?
LS: I find it odd when I hear people say that conditions for women were better in the past. Maybe things looked nicer on the surface, but the situation of women on the ground today is deeply different from the 1960s and 1970s. Try to make women stay at home today. No way!
Or people are always saying that the youth are apolitical — they’re disrespectful, they won’t listen to grown-ups, they just do what they want. When you get on a toktok in Boulaq al-Dakrour [a low-income area], you will hear rebellious, political songs. And then there are the informal settlements, the so-called ashwa’iyat where so much of the population lives. People have been forced to deal with their own matters, by themselves. They’re effectively outside the authority of the state. It’s not ideal, but this is the better-case scenario.
LA: So people’s relationship to authority is changing?
LS: I would say that the authorities are losing their grip on power. We’ve witnessed the collapse of the legend of the glorious national army; that can’t be reversed. We have more possibilities today than ever. But also more opportunities for a complete breakdown.
LA: You say that the problem is that we need new conceptualizations, new tools. But tools to do what, exactly? What does it mean to be politically engaged? What’s the purpose? Is it to create autonomous institutions, outside the system? To take power? To build power? To cause discomfort to those in power?
LS: It depends on when we are talking about, but I think the least we can do is give the bad guys a hard time. If you have any kind of public profile, this is the very least you can do. I get so angry at people who have audiences who choose to remain silent. They tell you it’s pointless, but that’s just not true. If your words can have an echo for people, how can you be silent? I like to think that we are sitting like Banquo’s ghost for them. Even when we fail… like in the case of Tiran and Sanafir, the islands the government gave to Saudi Arabia last year — we mobilized, organized protests, filed lawsuits. And okay, so we may not have been able to screw the marriage, but we definitely screwed the wedding. It was not a political win for the authorities.
But real politics is not about this. It’s about giving people more control over their own lives, making people’s lives better. It’s about development — making it so that people aren’t dying from curable diseases. Of course, at that level, what can be done in power is much more significant than what can be done from the outside.
I used to think that our worst nightmare would be for our revolution to end up like the Iranian revolution, but I think it turned out even worse for us. In Iran, the Islamists were part of the fight that ended the old regime, and then they turned against their allies on the Left and took power. And of course, there is oppression, and it is a terrible regime that we have to keep fighting. But there was development, too. Iran today has less poverty, more and better universities, greater industrialization. In Egypt’s case, I honestly thought there was going to be a period of reform when the Brotherhood came to power. But they didn’t have any sort of plan for development. It just wasn’t a priority. So we experienced the worst.