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Salman Rafi

Salman Rafi

Salman Rafi Sheikh is a Pakistan based independent journalist and a research analyst of international relations and Pakistan affairs. His areas of interest include South and West Asian Geo-politics, the foreign policies of major powers, and Pakistani politics. He can be reached at salmansheikh.ss11.sr@gmail.com

South Asia security

‘Tough love’ approach to Pakistan has its limits

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

A bipartisan bill introduced in the US Congress last week seeks to end Pakistan’s status as a major non-Nato ally in the US-led "war on terror." The bill, introduced by Ted Poe, a Republican member of the Congress’s Foreign Affairs Committee and chairman of a sub-committee on terrorism and nuclear proliferation, hasn’t come in isolation. Rather, it has been tabled at a time when the Trump administration itself is contemplating changes in the US approach to Pakistan aimed at bringing...

Qatar Opinion

The Gulf crisis, the Muslim Brotherhood and regional flux

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Part of the crisis that has gripped the Persian Gulf owes its existence to the deep-rooted religio-ideological rift that has long pierced through the otherwise “Sunni” world. While undoubtedly a result of a power struggle between the House of Saud, a traditional autocrat monarchy, and Qatar, a self-proclaimed "moderate" Arab state, Qatar’s support for moderate – that is, non-militant – Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood has repeatedly landed it in hot water. At the heart of Qatar’s support for...

Afghanistan Opinion

Kabul, Islamabad flog the dead horse of ‘Taliban talks’

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had an unscheduled meeting  with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on the sidelines of this month's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana and decided to revive the moribund and potentially dysfunctional Quadrilateral Cooperation Group (QCG) to tackle "jointly" the irreconcilable Taliban groups. According to reports, the meeting was successful in reducing the tension that has gripped the Afghanistan-Pakistan region during past few months. However, reviving the QCG under the current circumstances seems to be flogging a dead horse...

Pakistan Opinion

Pakistan’s ‘war on terror’ falling short on two fronts

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Pakistan’s upbeat claims notwithstanding, terrorism in that country remains very much alive both as a disruptive force and as an ideological narrative. This is evident from the way numerous terror outfits are still able to operate on social media, if not on the ground. The very existence of these banned outfits flies in the face of a conspicuous absence of a coherent and wide-ranging anti-terror strategy. According to a recent report by the Dawn newspaper, at least 41 of the 64 banned terror...

Saudi Arabia United States

As in Syria, Trump has set Obama aside in Saudi too

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Regardless of the theatrics and the billion-dollar deals, Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia has accomplished one thing: reversal of the Obama administration's policy of gradual engagement with Iran and distancing the US  from Saudi Arabia. If there ever was any doubt about the Islamic Military Alliance (IMA) being a purely anti-terror coalition, it was effectively put to rest when the US president and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman chose to castigate Iran, accusing it of being the sole source of...

Pakistan Opinion

Pakistan’s tribal areas face restricted path to integration

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), otherwise known as a breeding ground of terrorism, have been since the country’s creation in 1947 one of its least integrated regions. And it is likely to remain so after the current government has apparently decided to abolish the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR), a British colonial legacy, and replace it with a Riwaj Act, roughly translated as the Customary Law Act. This replacement is part of the government’s bid to merge FATA into Pakistan’s third-largest province,...

Iran Pakistan

Pakistan, Iran cautiously shift toward ‘brotherly’ relations

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Pakistan’s decision to participate in the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance (IMA) certainly has attracted criticism from Iran, and it was perhaps the reason why Tehran initially reacted harshly to the border attack from Balochistan, Pakistan’s western province, which killed at least 10 Iranian border guards in April. However, the fallout from the attack appears to have been well handled diplomatically by both sides. Instead of sticking to the somewhat traditional way of engaging in a diplomatic spat, Iranian Foreign Minister...

Afghanistan Opinion

‘Afghan muck’ much thicker than Trump administration realizes

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

In what is being described as a “Groundhog Day” development for the US Marine Corps, its most recent arrival in Afghanistan's Helmand province marks a symbolic return to the peak days of US/Nato forces’ fight against the Taliban for control of the province. Helmand, where about 350 US marines have lost their lives in the past, is currently the Taliban’s stronghold. While the new arrival of 300 marines looks marginal when compared with the 40,000 foreign troops previously positioned in the province, it...

Politics Turkey

Erdogan’s referendum victory polarizes Turkey

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's narrow victory in the recent referendum notwithstanding, the results have clearly shown that his celebrated political ideal of achieving "stability" through a centralized system will be an extremely hard nut to crack. Instead, what he faces is a polarized Turkey and a vibrant opposition vote that is unwilling to succumb to the "one-man rule" model that is emerging. For the opposition forces, a victory by a margin of about 3% stands in stark contrast to...

South Asia Politics

Good fences make Pakistan and Afghanistan bad neighbors

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

"Friendship Gate" reads the sign at the main border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is a misnomer. Any remaining friendship between the governments in Islamabad and Kabul began to dissipate when Pakistan closed the border last month. Although Pakistan later re-opened the border on what it called humanitarian grounds, the fraught relationship seems set to continue deteriorating. The main cause of the deterioration is the recent decision by Pakistan to fence the border, which is over 2,000-km long, as...

Middle East Opinion

After Syria strike, will Trump end Obama’s Yemen policy?

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

After giving a clear indication of what the Trump administration is prepared to do in Syria, one is tempted to raise a question about what they will and can go for in Yemen? While the US’ Syria strike, coming in the aftermath of a far-from-confirmed gas attack by the Syrian government, certainly has raised the level of tension with Russia and Iran, the strike certainly has left a very positive impact on the dwindling US relations with its traditional allies...

Middle East United States

Can the US fight terror while sanctioning Iran, Syria?

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

On March 21, the US state department announced fresh sanctions on 30 individuals and entities involved in the supply of weapons and weapons-related technology to Iran, Syria and North Korea. The purpose was to prevent these countries – especially Iran, the most “destabilizing” force in the region – from creating any further problems. The sanctions imposed pursuant to the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Non-proliferation Act (INKSNA) will remain in effect for two years. The official statement specifically mentions Iran as...

Trump’s ‘do nothing’ Afghan policy is running the US out of options

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

The ongoing war in Afghanistan, the longest in US history, received only scant attention during the 2016 presidential election campaign that saw the unexpected election of Donald Trump. Trump, who appears to be indifferent to the war, has described the conflict as a "total disaster" for the US. And he has termed the vaunted "nation-building" project another disaster and has vowed to end it. The war is in its 16th year and according to General John Nicholson, commander of US-led...

Middle East Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s war in Syria isn’t over yet

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Hezbollah, the Party of God, has been fighting what has been termed a “necessary war” for Iran in Syria which – if it had failed to win it – could have meant its demise and ended its ability to project power beyond its borders. Yet the war has brought Hezbollah to a point where, despite being successful in protecting Bashar al-Assad, it now faces crucial challenges that involve not only compromises with groups – both jihadi and non-jihadi – who have been...

Middle East Politics

Iran is the number one enemy for the US – again

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Tension is mounting as Iran becomes the most serious threat to US interests in the Middle East. While an official declaration is yet to come, top American military brass think the threats Iran pose are far more serious than those presented by ISIS. Hence, the imperative of countering the threat is at the same level as the US anti-ISIS strategy. This was clearly evident from the way US Central Command head General Joseph Votel spoke during the Senate Armed Services Committee’s hearing held...

China Pakistan

CPEC the game changer might change nothing

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) continues to look like a mystery, wrapped in an enigma. In the absence of agreements stipulating and documenting both countries’ interests, the CPEC is creating problems that would strip Pakistan of whatever benefits the multi-billion-dollar project promises. Pakistan’s high-profile developmental claims notwithstanding, there are grey areas in which the CPEC appears to become a China-only project, stripping it of its game-changing elements for Pakistan and giving China a disproportionate presence in the country and the region. Yet Pakistan...

Pakistan Punjab

Pakistan’s skewed ‘war on terror’ reflects bigger problems

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

A massive anti-terror operation called "Radd-ul-Fassad" (Elimination of terror) has been launched in Pakistan's most populated province, Punjab, as part of the country's latest bid to wipe out the so-called "urban terrorism" and terror groups that, according to the official narrative, continue to receive "foreign support” both in terms of financial funding and territorial sanctuaries.  Since the start of the operation last week, hundreds have been arrested and many killed. At the same time, a continuation of military courts has...

South Asia Opinion

In Pakistan, roots of militancy are a lot deeper than Jihad

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

There exists a “nexus” of political and religious parties and terrorists, Pakistan’s former chief justice, Anwar Zaheer Jamali, said in September 2016 during a hearing on a Karachi law-and-order case – a fact that is crucial to understanding the anatomy of violence in Pakistan’s biggest city and its commercial hub. Not only was that a bitter assertion of the truth of what really goes into the making of militant groups in Pakistan, it equally points out that a jihadist ideology...

Middle East Battle for Mosul

US operations in Mosul take a dangerous turn

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

If nothing else, the US-led operation Fatah (victory) in the Iraqi city of Mosul has turned into everything but victory. On the other hand, “liberation” of the city is producing new conflict by reviving old ethnic and sectarian strife — a strife which, in turn, has a lot more to do with the economics of the city than mere ethnic and sectarian identities. What had earlier been conceived by the Obama administration as a quick walk over the city has...

Russia Vladimir Putin

Understanding Trump’s embrace of ‘the killer’ Putin

Salman Rafi Salman Rafi

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s projection as a ‘killer’ by Fox News's Bill O'Reilly signifies the attention the specter of Trump-Putin relations continues to receive in the US. While an automatic and easy transformation of US-Russia relations under the Trump administration doesn’t seem to fall in the realm of possibilities, what however can prevent it is not just media’s projection of Putin as a ‘killer’ but the conflicting policy positions that Trump has laid down in the first three weeks of...

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