How do you think the renewed same sex marriage debate will play for Malcolm Turnbull? Uncomfortably, would be a pretty safe bet, because, no matter how this proceeds, he has lost control.
It is a bizarrely weak position for a prime minister.
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Same sex marriage division
Coalition MPs are considering crossing the floor to make sure same sex marriage is legalised in Australia, and conservatives are unimpressed.
Marriage equality will return to the Liberal party room meeting on Tuesday with all the vengeance of justice denied.
A clutch of courageous backbenchers is angling for a free parliamentary vote, arguing that Tony Abbott's constitutionally superfluous plebiscite is a dead letter with no chance of revival this term.
Re-heating that parry in 2018, or its even more laughable variant of a voluntary postal vote, they say, is untenable. It had nakedly been a stalling tactic anyway.
Turnbull, who supports marriage reform, has put himself in the weakest place possible. Unable to vote with his own conscience, yet facing the possibility of a parliamentary vote being foisted on him.
In other words, he could get what he once wanted and yet still be defeated.
The Prime Minister may stand with the majority of voters, but because of a 2015 deal he reached with conservatives, can no longer say so. Thus he is condemned to the lame pledge that in a public plebiscite (which will never happen) he and Lucy would vote yes.
Feel the power.
The first crunch will come in the party room on Tuesday. As many as five backbenchers pushing for a conscience vote, senator Dean Smith, and MPs Warren Entsch, Trent Zimmerman, Tim Wilson, and Trevor Evans, want a debate to revise the government's position. Turnbull could either allow that debate or deny it. He may opt for a subsequent meeting but even that carries big risks.
The issue is not going away amid talk of crossing the floor.
In the Senate, where the government lacks a majority, the pro-change numbers look likely, assuming Labor's support.
In the House of Representatives, the rebels need an absolute majority of 76 votes for a procedural motion. At present, there are at best 72, so four Liberals would need to cross the floor.
Turnbull's backers see a silver lining if this vote gets up. At least it will have been removed from the agenda, they say.
But at what cost to his already questionable authority?
In any event, conservatives are fuming, seeding stories about leadership instability, and seeing Turnbull's fingerprints on the backbench push.
It's another fine mess.
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