If Labor wins the next election, then Australians will be voting on an Australian republic by 2020.
That was Bill Shorten's announcement in Melbourne last night.
He made his commitment before a dinner of more than 800 republicans – the largest gathering of Australian republicans since the Eureka Stockade, all together in the building where Australia's first Parliament met. He far exceeded their expectations.
In doing so, Shorten has done three big things.
First, he has transformed the politics of patriotism in this country.
In thedivisive debate about "Australian values" that has dominated Australian politics in 2017 – and in some respects, in the 21st century – there is suddenly a new voice. What could be more "un-Australian" than the monarchical principle? Our political system enshrines inherited privilege at its highest point, in the head of state. What better way to share the ideals of citizenship and to ask everyone who lives here to 'sign up' than by saying the head of state is signed up too?
This is a big deal. Where 20 years ago the republic was seen as a distraction from bread and butter issues of jobs and the economy, today's daily politics and news is dominated by identity and nationhood as never before. By explicitly positioning the republic as an inclusive response to the deep anxiety in the community about how our society can remain cohesive in future years, Shorten turns the slightly abstract idea of an Australian head of state into an urgent social argument and a relevant political debate.
Second, this Labor leader has gone where Prime Minister Rudd at his most popular and Prime Minister Gillard at her most determined would not go.
The English novelist DH Lawrence visited Australia 90 years ago, he wrote that in this country "nobody felt BETTER than anybody else, or higher; only better-off". That egalitarian spirit fits the Labor leader's campaign against inequality and his campaign for an Australian republic equally well. So perhaps it is no surprise that it is this Labor leader, not his last two predecessors, who has put the republic on the front page.
A classless society cannot have a crown.
Of course, the paradox is that the republic can never succeed if it is a Labor cause. It is an Australian campaign, at its strongest when its leadership is bipartisan and its politics inclusive. Both patriotic conservatives and egalitarian progressives can embrace the essential republican message that Australia should choose its own system and have its own head of state.
And this is where the opposition leader has not only changed politics and gone far beyond his predecessors – the third thing he has done is even more remarkable.
Bill Shorten's speech created a shining opportunity for his opponent the Prime Minister.
At the 25th anniversary dinner of the Australian Republic Movement in Sydney in December last year, Mr Turnbull reflected on the difficulty of constitutional change in Australia. This, he indicated, is why Australians should debate this issue following the death of the present Queen.
Yet now, the PM has more than the general support of the Opposition Leader, the Premiers and Chief Ministers (Labor and Liberal) for his great conviction that Australia should have an Australian head of state. He has the direct commitment of the Labor Leader to a national vote in the next Parliamentary term.
The Prime Minister could simply say – yes.
He can rob the Opposition Leader of a populist campaign, exercise his authority over a matter not subject to the parliamentary numbers game, and even seek a mandate at the coming election to pursue it himself.
All Mr Turnbull really has to do is say: "I'm glad you finally agree with me – let's get it done."
Or will he allow Bill Shorten to be the only Republican bus leaving the station in 2019?
Michael Cooney is national director of the Australian Republic Movement.
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