U.S. House Financial Services Committee Needs New Leadership

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 12, 2017

Jeb Hensarling, Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, at FSOC Hearing, December 8, 2015

Jeb Hensarling, Chair of the House Financial Services Committee

When members of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee question Fed Chair Janet Yellen this morning following her testimony on monetary policy, many Republicans on the panel will be posturing for their money masters who fund their political campaigns rather than asking questions that benefit the average American.

You can tell that there has been a Koch Network-corporate takeover of the House Financial Services Committee by the statement that its Chairman, Jeb Hensarling, plastered on the front page of the Committee’s web site following the heroic actions of the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Richard Cordray, on Monday. Cordray reopened the nation’s courts to millions of Americans who have been the victims of predatory actions by the banks that fund Hensarling’s seat in Congress.

On Monday, Cordray went up against the most powerful players on Wall Street and the entire Big Bank lobby, and issued a final rule that restores the rights of citizens to sue predatory credit card companies and banks as a group in a legal technique known as a class action. Republicans in Congress should have heralded this move as a fundamental right under the U.S. Constitution and one of the very tenets on which this nation was founded.

One of the documents supposedly cherished by Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee is the U.S. Declaration of Independence. That founding document cites the tyranny of King George III and his infringement on access to the courts by citizens as a grievance. The founding fathers wrote that King George III “has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries” and, furthermore, he was “depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury.”

The U.S. Bill of Rights’ Seventh Amendment to the Constitution guarantees the rights of citizens to access the nation’s courts. It reads:

“In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.”

Hensarling didn’t see it that way. He posted a statement to the Committee’s web site that sounded like it had been quickly dashed off by corporate lobbyists. Using Orwellian Reverse-Speak, Hensarling called Cordray’s action “anti-consumer,” said it should be “thoroughly rejected by Congress,” and claimed “the American people voted to drain the D.C. swamp of capricious, unaccountable bureaucrats who wish to control their lives.”

Americans certainly never envisioned that draining the swamp meant putting corporate billionaires and multi-millionaires in charge of the U.S. Treasury, State Department, Commerce Department, Education Department; putting former investment bankers from Goldman Sachs in key posts; and putting Wall Street’s lawyers in charge of Federal financial watchdogs. Donald Trump’s SEC Chair has represented eight of the ten largest Wall Street banks in the past three years. Millions of Americans have awakened to the sad reckoning that draining the swamp actually meant restocking it with more powerful players.

Hensarling has become a corporate mouthpiece because he is a product of America’s broken corporate campaign finance system. Wall Street powerhouse, JPMorgan Chase, is Hensarling’s largest political career donor, followed by another mega bank, Bank of America. Third on the list is the banking industry’s trade group, the American Bankers Association. Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Wells Fargo also rank in Hensarling’s top 20 career donors. Koch Industries, the sprawling international conglomerate that is majority owned by the Koch brothers, Charles and David, also made the list. This data comes from the Center for Responsive Politics which notes that “The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations’ PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals’ immediate families.” (Corporations are not legally allowed to donate directly to campaigns.)  

Increasingly, Congressional hearings chaired by these corporate-financed mouthpieces are productive viewing only to learn who has sold their soul outright and to get an early heads up on what new attack on citizens’ rights is in the works.

Court House Doors Will Reopen for Millions of U.S. Consumers

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 11, 2017

Richard Cordray, Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Richard Cordray, Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Yesterday, Richard Cordray, the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) that was created in 2010 under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation, did what few Americans thought he would dare to do: he stood up to threats of being fired; threats of backlash from Wall Street titans; threats of having his agency’s budget gutted; and Congressional threats of being put on a leash by a commission appointed by the President. Despite all of these threats and more, Cordray issued the final rule that allows consumers who have been defrauded in financial transactions involving credit cards and bank accounts to have access to file a group action (known legally as a “class action”) using the nation’s courts.

The rule mandates the following wording in bank account and credit card contracts: “You may file a class action in court or you may be a member of a class action filed by someone else.”

The final rule issued by the CFPB throws a monkey wrench into the gears of Wall Street’s institutionalized wealth transfer system which has for decades been seamlessly moving the meager life savings of the 99 percent to the heretofore impenetrable vaults of the 1 percent. It guts Big Banking’s private justice system known as mandatory arbitration, which has previously been described as McJustice by Gloria Steinem and kangaroo courts by women’s groups. (For background on this rigged wealth transfer system, see related articles below.)

While the CFPB’s final rule leaves mandatory arbitration in place for individual claims, the CFPB notes that most individual consumers don’t bother to fight a $20 ripoff by a bank. The class action is a critical consumer weapon for the following reasons, according to an in-depth study conducted by the CFPB:

“…group lawsuits succeed in bringing hundreds of millions of dollars in relief to millions of consumers each year, and at least 34 million members of group lawsuits received payments over the five-year study period. Those payments totaled $1 billion in cash direct to consumers, net of attorney’s fees and expenses. Conversely, over the two years that we studied final results, in about one thousand arbitration cases, the arbitrators awarded a combined total of about $360,000 in relief to a total of 78 consumers. Therefore, by blocking group lawsuits, companies are able to avoid paying out significant amounts of money in private litigation when they wrong consumers.”

Unfortunately, the CFPB has no power over Wall Street brokerage firms. That’s the realm of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which has typically been led by lawyers from the very same Big Law firms that created Wall Street’s private justice system and enshrined it with iron clad clauses embedded in the copious text of Wall Street’s employment contracts and investment account agreements.

The big Wall Street firms that also own major retail banks like Citigroup’s Citibank, JPMorgan’s Chase Bank, and Bank of America will have to comply with the new rule for their credit cards and bank accounts but their tens of millions of brokerage accounts that restrict customers from using the nation’s courts and mandate instead mandatory arbitration remain unaffected. Still, this is a huge win for consumers. And to shine a bright light on how this insidious system evolved over the decades, the CFPB released a 775-page historical review which is must reading for anyone who seriously cares about the devolution of citizen rights in America.

Related Articles:

Wall Street’s Protection Racket: Mandatory Arbitration

Republicans Plan a Coup Today in the House, Gutting Established Class Action Law

Wall Street’s Kangaroo Courts Perpetuate a Business Model of Fraud

Theft of Your Money on Wall Street: Another GAO Report Won’t Help

New York Times Discovers Courts Have Been Privatized – 20 Years Too Late

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Cordray released the following remarks yesterday in announcing the final rule.

Prepared Remarks of Richard Cordray

Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Arbitration Rule Announcement

Washington, D.C.

July 10, 2017

Thank you for joining us on this call. Today, we are announcing a final rule that prevents financial companies from using mandatory arbitration clauses to deny groups of consumers their day in court. A cherished tenet of our justice system is that no one, no matter how big or how powerful, should escape accountability if they break the law. But right now, many contracts for consumer financial products like bank accounts and credit cards come with a mandatory arbitration clause that makes it virtually impossible for people to sue the company as a group if things go wrong. On paper, these clauses simply say that either party can opt to have disputes resolved by private individuals known as arbitrators rather than by the court system. In practice, companies use these clauses to bar groups of consumers from joining together to seek justice by vindicating their legal rights.

Group lawsuits, also known as “class action” lawsuits, have long been recognized as a means to secure relief under federal and state law. A small number of consumers can take a company to court to seek justice on behalf of all who were harmed by the company’s practices. By blocking group lawsuits, mandatory arbitration clauses force consumers either to give up or to go it alone – usually over relatively small amounts that may not be worth pursuing on one’s own. Including these clauses in contracts allows companies to sidestep the judicial system, avoid big refunds, and continue to pursue profitable practices that may violate the law and harm large numbers of consumers.

The breadth and application of these clauses can be unexpected and severe. For example, when Wells Fargo opened millions of deposit and credit card accounts without the knowledge or consent of consumers, arbitration clauses in existing account contracts blocked their customers from bringing group lawsuits for the unauthorized account openings. Companies have argued that group lawsuits are unnecessary because the government can pursue enforcement actions to address the same problems. But consumers should be able to stand up for themselves and pursue their own legal rights without having to wait on the government. And the government has limited resources and authority to respond to every problem that arises in these financial markets.

Originally, arbitration was primarily used for disagreements between two businesses. But over the last quarter century or so, companies started adding arbitration clauses to their consumer contracts, specifically to block group lawsuits and avoid legal accountability. In the last decade, Congress has addressed mandatory arbitration in a few key areas. In 2007, Congress passed the Military Lending Act, which disallows mandatory arbitration clauses in connection with certain loans made to servicemembers. Three years later, in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Congress went further and banned mandatory arbitration clauses in most residential mortgage contracts.

The Dodd-Frank Act also required the Bureau to study the use of mandatory arbitration for other consumer financial products and services. Congress further authorized the Bureau to issue regulations to limit or prohibit the use of pre-dispute arbitration clauses for consumer financial products or services if such a rule is in the public interest, for the protection of consumers, and if the findings of such a rule are consistent with findings from our study. We conducted the most comprehensive study of mandatory arbitration clauses ever undertaken. We found that these clauses now exist in hundreds of millions of consumer finance contracts affecting tens of millions of consumers. For example, credit card issuers representing over half of all credit card debt have arbitration clauses in their contracts with consumers. Yet few consumers are aware of these clauses and even fewer know how they work. Three out of four consumers we surveyed did not even know whether their credit card agreement contained an arbitration clause.

Our research showed that these little-known clauses are bad for consumers. They may not be aware that they have been deceived or discriminated against or even when their contractual rights have been violated. Moreover, very few people have the time or the money to fight on their own over a small amount of money, which is commonly the stakes in consumer financial matters, even though they can involve the same harm to millions of consumers. In most situations, hiring a lawyer to handle the consumer’s own individual case is not practicable. For example, when faced with the daunting prospect of expending all that effort to recoup a $35 fee or even a $100 overcharge, it is no surprise that few people bother to try. When we surveyed consumers with credit cards, only about 2 percent of them said they would consult an attorney or consider formal legal action to resolve a small-dollar dispute. By forcing people to go it alone, companies are less likely to face legal action from anyone who was wronged. As a result, consumers are hurt in two ways.

First, as compared to group lawsuits, individual arbitration means consumers are less likely to get relief for the harms they have suffered. According to the Bureau’s study, group lawsuits succeed in bringing hundreds of millions of dollars in relief to millions of consumers each year, and at least 34 million members of group lawsuits received payments over the five-year study period. Those payments totaled $1 billion in cash direct to consumers, net of attorney’s fees and expenses. Conversely, over the two years that we studied final results, in about one thousand arbitration cases, the arbitrators awarded a combined total of about $360,000 in relief to a total of 78 consumers. Therefore, by blocking group lawsuits, companies are able to avoid paying out significant amounts of money in private litigation when they wrong consumers.

Second, consumers are likely to continue facing ongoing harm that does not get corrected. Even if some consumers were to bring individual arbitration actions and recoup their own losses, that does not stop the same practices from happening again to them or to others. Resolving group lawsuits often requires companies not only to pay back everyone who was harmed, but also to change their conduct moving forward. This saves countless consumers the pain and expense of experiencing the same harms. The Bureau’s study found that in 53 group settlements covering over 106 million consumers, companies agreed to change their business practices or implement new compliance programs. Without group lawsuits, private citizens have much less power, on their own, to stop companies from pursuing profitable practices that may violate the law.

Today’s rule prohibits banks and other consumer financial companies from including mandatory arbitration clauses that block group lawsuits in any new contracts after the compliance date. The rule does not bar arbitration clauses outright. For these new contracts, however, these clauses have to say explicitly that they cannot be used to stop consumers from banding together to pursue relief as a group. The rule includes the specific language that financial companies must use. By restoring the ability of consumers to file or join group lawsuits, the rule gives companies more incentive to comply with the law. And the deterrent effect of such cases can more broadly influence the business practices of other companies as well.

Our new rule also requires companies to submit their claims, awards, and other information about the arbitration of individual disputes to the Bureau. This will help us better monitor arbitrations to make sure the process is fair for individual consumers. The companies are required to scrub these materials of personal information, and starting in July 2019, we will also post them on our website. This will promote transparency and give consumers, providers, and other regulators more insight into how arbitration works.

Our common-sense rule applies to the major markets for consumer financial products and services under the Bureau’s jurisdiction, including those in which providers lend money, store money, and move or exchange money.

To get it right, our process has been thoughtful and thorough. Before launching our study, we issued a Request for Information to obtain stakeholder input about the scope of the study and the available data. In November 2013, we issued the preliminary results of our study and described the scope of the remaining work. The study itself was published in March 2015. For over two years since, we have worked to determine whether new rules were appropriate based on the study results and the Bureau’s experience and expertise. We consulted with small providers that might be affected. Last May, the Bureau issued a request for public comment, and last August, we held a Tribal consultation. We ultimately considered more than 110,000 responses from consumers, consumer groups, industry, and other interested parties before finalizing the rulemaking. The text of the rule is direct and concise at only 12 double-spaced pages, with some further explanatory commentary.

I am, of course, aware of those parties who have indicated they will seek to have the Congress nullify this new rule. That is a process that I expect will be considered and determined on the merits. My obligation as the Director of the Consumer Bureau is to act for the protection of consumers and in the public interest. In deciding to issue this rule, that is what I believe I have done.

Over the past 50 years, Congress made the decision in many consumer financial statutes to allow individuals to sue to seek relief when they are harmed by violations of the law. Indeed, Congress frequently adopted special provisions to allow for class actions. Congress has acted selectively and carefully, sometimes authorizing such lawsuits so that individuals will not be dependent on the government to protect their rights, and sometimes disallowing them.

But in recent years, private companies have been able to override Congress’s decisions and sidestep accountability under the law, and millions of consumers have found the courtroom doors locked through mandatory arbitration clauses. This rule throws open those doors and allows harmed consumers to band together and seek justice for themselves and all others affected in the same way where Congress has authorized such lawsuits. Based on the study Congress authorized the Bureau to perform, that is the right answer to protect consumers and serve the public interest. Thank you.

 

Flash Crashes Are a Permanent Part of U.S. Markets: Should You Worry?

Flash Crash Chart of May 6, 2010

Flash Crash Chart of May 6, 2010

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 10, 2017

Over the past year, there have been flash crashes in multiple markets, raising concerns that fat fingers, algorithms and/or rogue hedge fund traders are still running amok. We’ll get to the specifics in a moment, but to put the unusual trading patterns in context, you need some important background information.

Wall Street On Parade began reporting on flash crash activity following the Granddaddy of all flash crashes thus far – the event on May 6, 2010 when the stock market did a bungee jump, briefly plunging 998 points, with hundreds of stocks momentarily losing 60 per cent or more of their value and knocking out stop-loss orders for retail investors. Former SEC Chair Mary Schapiro estimated at the time that individual investors had lost more than $200 million in these improperly triggered stop loss orders on May 6. (Read our skepticism on the official regulatory report here.)

What is a stop-loss order? Small investors frequently put in place standing stop-loss orders that rest on the stock exchange order books to sell a stock at a pre-determined exit price that is lower than the current market in order to “stop” further losses. Once the target price of the stop-loss order is reached, the order automatically becomes a market order and is executed at where the market happens to be. In properly functioning, orderly markets, this would typically mean the stop-loss order would be executed at, or close to, the designated target price. In flash crash markets, on the other hand, it can result in massive losses to the little guy. (Read more granular details on these types of orders here.)

A stock market where stocks can lose 60 percent of their value in minutes, lock in losses for the little guy, then stage a miraculous recovery, is not really the kind of place where most people want to put their serious money. Indeed, the May 6, 2010 flash crash, following the revelations of abject corruption on Wall Street that emerged from the 2008 crash, permanently destroyed the confidence in U.S. markets for millions of Americans.

Given the outcry over the May 6, 2010 flash crash, one would have thought that Federal regulators would have gotten a solid grip on the situation to prevent another major flash crash. But just a little more than two years later, Bloomberg News was reporting the following about insane market disruption from Knight Capital:

“Between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. EDT, one of Knight’s trading algorithms reportedly started pushing erratic trades through on nearly 150 different stocks, from Berkshire Hathaway to Nokia to Exelon. Trading volumes soared in many of them, so much so that the most traded stock on a typical day, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, finished the Aug. 1 session as the 52nd-most traded stock, according to Eric Hunsader, CEO of market data service Nanex.

“…Knight’s buggy algorithm was apparently buying high and selling low, the opposite of a competent trading strategy…‘It totally freaked us out,’ Hunsader says. ‘If it hadn’t been stopped, it would have been a total disaster.’ He adds that the glitch led to 4 million extra trades in 550 million shares that would not have existed otherwise.”

Two years later the U.S. experienced a flash crash in Treasury yields. Nanex, reported that between 9:33 and 9:45 a.m. on the morning of October 15, 2014, “liquidity evaporated in Treasury futures and prices skyrocketed (causing yields to plummet). Five minutes later, prices returned to 9:33 [a.m.] levels.” Nanex goes on to say that “Trading activity was enormous, sending trade counts for the entire day to record highs — exceeding that of the Lehman collapse, the financial crisis and the August 2011 downgrade of U.S. debt.”

Less than one year after the Treasury debacle, on Monday, August 24, 2015, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1089 points within the first few minutes of trading. By the closing bell, the Dow was down just 588 points. Big cap stocks like JPMorgan Chase, Home Depot, GE, Apple, Ford Motor, Colgate-Palmolive, Merck and Verizon briefly plunged by as much as 15 to 20 percent.

There have been lots of other less notable events since 2010, including the events of the past year. Last Thursday, July 6, silver futures experienced a flash crash, plunging approximately 11 percent before bouncing back. On July 7, CNBC reported the following events which it has dubbed flash crashes:

“In other recent flash crashes, bitcoin rival ethereum crashed in New York afternoon trade on June 21 from near $317 to 10 cents on a major U.S.-based digital currency exchange called GDAX.

“On the evening of May 4, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell more than 3 percent from $45.36 to a near six-month low of $43.76 a barrel in about 15 minutes.

“In early October, pound sterling lost a 10th of its value in a sudden decline that sent the currency to a 31-year low.”

The overarching question for Americans is why Congress and Federal regulators continue to wear blinders to the destruction of confidence in U.S. markets.

These Charts Show the Fed’s Stress Tests as a Dangerous Illusion

Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) Stock Trading Pattern, July 6, 2017

Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) Stock Trading Pattern, July 6, 2017

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Trading Pattern, July 6, 2017

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Trading Pattern, July 6, 2017

 

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 7, 2017

Sometimes a picture really is worth a thousand words. The charts above show how four of the largest Wall Street banks traded like clones of one another yesterday. Their share prices rallied at almost identical times and the rallies faded at almost identical times. The chart contrasting the trading pattern of JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley is particularly interesting. JPMorgan’s Chase bank has thousands of retail commercial bank branches spread across the United States. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, has approximately 17,000 retail stockbrokers, now known as financial advisors. What both firms have in common is that they are among the five banks in the country that control a monster pile of derivatives on Wall Street. Ditto for the other two banks illustrated above: Citigroup and Bank of America.

According to the most recent data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks, as of March 31, 2017 the following five bank holding companies controlled the lion’s share of the derivatives market: Citigroup held $54.8 trillion in notional (face amount) of derivatives; JPMorgan Chase held $48.6 trillion; Goldman Sachs Group had $45.6 trillion; Bank of America held $35.8 trillion while Morgan Stanley sat atop $30.8 trillion. According to the OCC report, the top 25 bank holding companies controlled a total of $242.3 trillion in notional derivatives at the end of the first quarter of 2017, with these five bank holding companies accounting for 89 percent of that amount.

The Fed’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review stress tests (CCAR), the results of which were announced on June 28, gave the green light to these mega Wall Street banks to eat away at their capital through monster share buybacks and increases in their dividends to shareholders. This effectively ignored the concentration of derivatives held by these five firms and their heavily intertwined connectivity that results from the obvious fact that they share many of the same counterparties to these derivative contracts. The reason these mega bank stocks trade like a herd in a stressed market environment is because these banks are a herd.

Consider the situation just 18 months ago. We wrote on January 20, 2016:

“Two Wall Street banks, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, have seen their share prices decline by more than 30 percent since July. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have also experienced double-digit declines in the same period.

“The hubris of incompetent regulation of the behemoth Wall Street banks, which Congress not only failed to tame after the 2008 crash but allowed to grow much larger in terms of systemic risk, has now come home to roost. If these banks own up to losses and boost loan loss reserves for what is inevitably coming, their share prices will dive further. If they don’t, markets will assume they’re lying and guess at what their share price should be, potentially hurting them even more…”

On the morning of January 20, 2016, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America all traded at new 12-month lows after blowing through tens of billions of dollars of equity capital in a six month span.

On June 27 of this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke at the British Academy in London and explained what the Fed looks for in its stress tests in terms of liquidity at these mega Wall Street banks. Yellen stated:

“So suppose there were a scare and depositors decided ‘we want our money, we’re worried that there’s something wrong in your bank.’ Well, having enough liquidity that you would be able to meet deposit outflows that could occur, let’s say over a 30-day period even if they were severe, we’ve put in place for systemic banks – internationally-active banks, liquidity requirements they hold in order of magnitude more liquid assets.”

A 30-day safety net for banks that trade like a herd for as long as a year in a declining market is no safety net at all. The Fed battled in the courts to keep from revealing that it had given secret emergency loans – at almost zero interest rates – that cumulatively totaled $16 trillion from 2007 into 2010 to the Wall Street banks and their foreign counterparties in the last financial crash.

Against this background, it’s clear that the Fed’s stress tests are not the product of childlike naiveté. It’s clear that the Fed’s backup plan is more massive, secret emergency lending if something goes wrong. That may be a great plan for the unreformed banks, their obscenely paid CEOs and their largest shareholders but it’s a devastating plan for a nation saddled with a $20 trillion national debt – a large part of which came from shoring up the U.S. economy the last time Wall Street went on a binge as the Fed waved pom poms from the sidelines.

Financial System of U.S. Rests on Health of Just Five Mega Banks

Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo.

Five Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 6, 2017

According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), as of March 31, 2017 there were a total of 5,856 banks in the U.S. operating under its Federal deposit insurance umbrella. But according to government financial researchers, five of those banks pose an ongoing material threat to the U.S. financial system. Not surprisingly, those five banks hold insured deposits for savers while simultaneously engaging in highly leveraged, high risk trading on Wall Street.

On June 27, Janet Yellen, the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (the nation’s central bank) spoke at an event at the British Academy in London. She stated the following about the U.S. financial system:

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far, but I do think we are much safer, and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be.”

We hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, but there is no substantive data to support Janet Yellen’s view. In fact, the very body that provides the intelligence to the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC), the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (OFR), has been pumping out volumes of research that strongly suggest just the opposite. According to OFR’s research, those five Wall Street mega banks hold the fate of the U.S. financial system in their highly interconnected and highly dangerous hands. Tragically, that’s pretty much the same condition the U.S. was in heading into the crash of 2008.

According to OFR research:

“The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. The product of these three factors provides an overall measure of the contagion risk that the bank poses for the financial system. Five of the U.S. banks had particularly high contagion index values — Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs.”

According to data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), those same bank holding companies as of March 31, 2017 were sitting on astronomical levels of derivatives: in notional (face amount) of derivatives, Citigroup held $54.8 trillion; JPMorgan Chase held $48.6 trillion; Goldman Sachs Group had $45.6 trillion; Bank of America held $35.8 trillion while Morgan Stanley sat on $30.8 trillion. Graphs in the OCC report show that the top 25 bank holding companies held a total of $242.3 trillion in notional derivatives at the end of the first quarter of 2017, of which these five bank holding companies accounted for 89 percent of that amount.

OFR research has also found systemic risks exist from these five banks’ holdings of large foreign assets and/or intrafinancial system liabilities, writing:

“A bank that has large foreign assets and large intrafinancial system liabilities is a potential source of spillover risk. If a large loss in value in foreign assets caused such an institution to fail, the losses could be transmitted to the rest of the U.S. financial system. Five banks had large foreign assets (exceeding $300 billion) and Citigroup and JPMorgan had large figures for both foreign assets and intrafinancial system liabilities…Again, the largest banks are the most interconnected and they are involved in the most cross-jurisdictional activity.”

What is stunning about the interconnectedness of today’s big Wall Street banks is that it so closely parallels the research findings on the crash of 2008. In a 2011 paper prepared for the Money and Banking Conference in Buenos Aires, financial researcher Jane D’Arista wrote:

“Interconnectedness is one of the critical clusters of related causes of the crisis. It resulted from the extraordinary growth in indebtedness within the financial sector that facilitated higher leverage ratios and rising levels of speculative trading for institutions’ own accounts. As the amount of short-term borrowing and lending among financial institutions expanded, markets for repurchase agreements and commercial paper became primary funding sources, forging a chain that linked the fortunes of many institutions and various financial sectors to the performance of a few of the largest and exacerbated systemic vulnerability. Increased profits and compensation masked the growing vulnerabilities in the system but the crisis outcome was inevitable given:

— the buildup of unsustainable debt for individual institutions and the system as a whole;

— systemic undercapitalization as inflated on- and off-balance sheet positions increased risk from falling prices and the potential loss of funding, and;

— the heightened potential for loss of confidence as opaque markets for funding and OTC derivatives increased uncertainty about prices, volumes of transactions and the positions of counterparties.”

The reason that there has been so little meaningful reform since the 2008 epic collapse on Wall Street and the greatest taxpayer bailout in U.S. history, is that the U.S. political system is as broken as Wall Street’s structure.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, since 1998, Citigroup has spent more than $98 million lobbying Congress while JPMorgan Chase has spent approximately $85 million. Those figures are dwarfed, however, by the hundreds of millions of dollars that Wall Street’s trade groups spend lobbying Congress. It is also dwarfed by the corruption that flows from the disintegration of campaign finance laws which now allow the millionaires and billionaires on Wall Street to make obscene political donations to both of the major political parties as well as individual candidates. The will of the majority of Americans to shrink these Wall Street behemoths down to a non-dangerous size and restore credibility to the U.S. banking system has been completely drowned out by casino capitalism’s money spigot in Washington.