Bring out your dead.

 

Here’s one.
That’ll be ninepence.
I’m not dead.
What?
Nothing. There’s your ninepence.
I’m not dead.
‘Ere, he says he’s not dead.
Yes he is.
I’m not.
He isn’t.
Well, he will be soon, he’s very ill.
I’m getting better.
No you’re not, you’ll be stone dead in a moment.
Well, I can’t take him like that. It’s against regulations.
I don’t want to go on the cart.
Oh, don’t be such a baby.
I can’t take him.
I feel fine.
Oh, do me a favor.
I can’t.
Well, can you hang around for a couple of minutes? He won’t be long.
I promised I’d be at the Robinsons’. They’ve lost nine today.
Well, when’s your next round?
Thursday.
I think I’ll go for a walk.
You’re not fooling anyone, you know. Isn’t there anything you could do?
I feel happy. I feel happy.

Ah, thank you very much.
Not at all. See you on Thursday.
Right.

Emphasis mine-

Neoliberalism’s “Die Faster” Is Helping Pension Funds…But Not Doing Enough for Young Homebuyers
by Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism
August 9, 2017

One of Lambert’s principles of neoliberalism, up there with “Because markets” is “Die faster”. It’s now playing out as US life expectancy hasn’t just stalled out but has actually declined as older people are shuffling off the mortal coil at a faster rate. But in our best of all possible worlds, Bloomberg tells us that this is a Good Thing because it’s helping reduce pension fund underfunding, since actuaries had assumed increasing lifespans. No joke, the headline is Americans Are Dying Younger, Saving Corporations Billions.

(T)he decline is recent, but the underlying causes have been grinding along for some time, like termites eating away at a foundation. Neoliberalism seeks to treat people as isolated actors operating in impersonal markets. Therefore social relations, like involvement in one’s community, attachments to colleagues at work, or even one’s family (caring for an aging parent, not moving to pursue a “better” job because it would be bad for the kids), are seen as secondary. If you make enough money (as in are a winner at playing the neoliberal game), these things are all supposed to take care of themselves.

Nevertheless, the crisis and the way it was resolved is a major contributor to the decay. 9.3 million families lost their homes, due either to foreclosure or forced sales, out of a total of 54 millionish homes with mortgages. This was a tsunami of financial and psychological trauma. During the “recovery,” until the last few years, only the top 1% benefitted from GDP growth, leaving everyone else in aggregate worse off. The racial wealth gap is now wider than in the 1960s.

And even those who on paper might be doing OK are generally not in a very secure position unless they are exceedingly affluent. Half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Ever-rising medical costs and loophole-filled insurance policies mean a costly medical problem will also lead to stressed finances and potentially a bankruptcy. Job tenures are short and if it takes more than 6 months to land a new job, you may be permanently unemployed. Until 2013, most of the jobs created in the recover were part-time, and even now, the level of part-time jobs is high for an economy which the Fed keeps pretending is near full employment. And those in part-time jobs are subject to depression at a 50% higher rate than those in full-time jobs. And even those who look comfortable on current income basis are unlikely to be putting enough away for retirement.

In other words, members of the shrinking middle class often recognize that the gap between them and the precariat is not large. As we pointed out from the inception of this site, high levels of inequality in and of themselves impair health and longevity, even among the top income group. Among other reasons, highly stratified societies have weak social ties, which is a negative for health. People at each level know they would lose their supposed friends if they were to suffer a meaningful fall in income. They’d no longer be able to afford to participate in the events that were normal for their peers (for the rich, catered dinner parties, memberships in the right clubs and boards, keeping a second or third or fourth home in a posh community, participating in the mutual backscratching of political and charitable fundraising).

Even though the author of Bloomberg article on pensions had the good sense to sound alarms about the broader societal implications, another Bloomberg story tonight is bizarrely depicting older Americans as selfish, or at best inconvenient, for staying in houses they’ve owned a long time: Baby Boomers Who Refuse to Sell Are Dominating the Housing Market. “Refusing to sell”? Why is anyone who owns anything obligated to sell? If you believe in markets uber alles, people who have property rights are free to exercise them as they please. And if there’s a dearth of new building, it’s simple-minded to blame existing owners, when longer term factors are often in play. For instance, as Robert Fitch has documented, New York City has had a long-term plan of turning Manhattan into a community for the wealthy since the 1930s.

The removal of what would have normally been starter homes for the young has increased generational stress, yet the article perversely heaps all blame on older stick-in-the-muds.

Particularly in light of a dearth of safe, income-producing investments and strained market valuations, many if not most retirees have become even more frugal with spending. That means if you are in a home at a low annual cost, staying there will often be cheaper than any other option. Moving to a smaller home means transaction costs, often fix-up costs, and given how high prices are, not necessarily a reduction in burn rate (as in freeing up equity is likely to translate no lower and probably higher current expenses).

Moving into a retirement community is even more expensive. Most require $400,000 to $500,000 deposits which are either not refundable or only partially refundable upon death. The big motivation for many to move in isn’t cost savings but the risk of needing more care later on (assisted living, nursing home care) and not being able to get into a “better” facility (retirement homes use the lower-cost “independent living” to subsidize the higher-care programs).

But even then, staying in one’s home and having care-givers come in is almost always cheaper than being in a nursing home…provided you can find a reliable service. That usually requires oversight by family members, and if they aren’t nearby, the higher-cost nursing home option is the default.

That is a long-winded way of saying that the Bloomberg posture of implicitly treating older people as selfish for not getting out of the way of young people ignores the realities of the need of retirees to minimize costs, which above all includes hanging on to housing. And that’s before you get to the psychological benefit of staying in a familiar setting with established neighbors and friends.

So you see, Zombie-Eyed Granny Starver is no exaggeration.

The Russian Connection: FBI Raids Before Dawn

While the news cycle was focused on almost White House communications director Anthony “Mooch” Scaramucci’s potty mouth, a raid was taking place in the predawn hours of July 26 in Alexandria, Virginia. The FBI was executing a search warrant on the home of former trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, looking to seize documents and other materials related to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

The search warrant was wide-ranging and FBI agents working with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III departed the home with various records. Jason Maloni, a spokesman for Manafort, confirmed that agents executed a warrant at one of the political consultant’s homes and that Manafort cooperated with the search.

Manafort has been voluntarily producing documents to congressional committees investigating Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. The search warrant indicates investigators may have argued to a federal judge they had reason to believe Manafort could not be trusted to turn over all records in response to a grand jury subpoena.

It could also have been intended to send a message to President Trump’s former campaign chairman that he should not expect gentle treatment or legal courtesies from Mueller’s team. [..]

The significance of the records seized from Manafort’s apartment is unclear.

Manafort has provided documents to both the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate and House intelligence committees. The documents are said to include notes Manafort took while attending a meeting with Donald Trump Jr. and a Russian lawyer at Trump Tower in June 2016.

The raid occurred the day after Manafort had met in a privates session with the Senate intelligence Committee and turned over the meeting notes to them. So why the raid? Speculation is special counsel Robert Mueller is trying to get Manafort to flip.

Over at Raw Story, Travis Gettys reported that Trump started tweeting a few hours after the raid.

He started his morning at 7:15 a.m. on July 26 by tweeting a complaint at Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had voted the day before against advancing the Republican health care bill that ultimately failed, and then at 8:55 a.m. the president announced a ban on transgender military service members.

But a pair of tweets, from 9:48 and 9:52 a.m., suggests Trump may have been tipped off to the FBI raid of his campaign chairman’s home in Virginia — which went unreported for exactly two weeks.

Gettys notes that raid was also the same day that NBC broke the news that a close associate of Manafort’s was connected to top-tier Russian mobsters. And this:

The Manafort raid took place hours before some of the most important testimony yet in the congressional probe of Trump’s campaign ties to Russia.

Bill Browder — once the biggest portfolio investor in Russia but now a leading critic of Vladimir Putin — told the Senate Judiciary Committee that the Russian president was perhaps the richest man in the world but was unable to disperse his ill-gotten fortune due to U.S. sanctions.

Trump and then-communications director soaked up most of the day’s news coverage with their outrageous tweets and bizarre CNN interviews — and Anthony Scaramucci later that night threatened an FBI investigation against then-chief of staff Reince Priebus.

Scaramucci called in to CNN the following morning for an even more bizarre interview and capped off the following day with a profane rant to The New Yorker.

There is also more evidence that Trump is really scared. About an hour after the Washington Post story on the raid published, Trump’s favorite salacious tabloid The National Enquirer dropped a story implying Manafort was involved in a “sick sex scandal” that involved affairs with women who were significantly younger than his wife. What the purpose of that tidbit is unclear but the tabloid is Trump’s favorite place to smear his perceived enemies.

The Breakfast Club (Time)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:30am (ET) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

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This Day in History

The U.S. drops an atomic bomb on Nagasaki, Japan; President Richard Nixon resigns; Charles Manson cult murders actress Sharon Tate and four others; Singer Whitney Houston born; Musician Jerry Garcia dies.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

I think anytime you can affect people in general, in a positive way, then you’re a lucky individual.

Sam Elliott

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In Memoriam: Glen Campbell (April 22, 1936 – August 8, 2017)

Country singer, songwriter, musician and actor Glen Travis Campbell passed away today at the age of 81 from complications of Alzheimer’s Disease.

From 1969 to 1972, Campbell was the host of the Glen Campbell Goodtime Hour on CBS, a music and comedy variety show that aired 91 episodes. Among his 80 songs that charted on the Billboard Hot 100 or Billboard Country charts were hits such as Rhinestone Cowboy, By the Time I Get to Phoenix and his cover of John Hartford’s Gentle on My Mind.

Campbell recorded his final studio album, Adios, in Nashville in 2012 and 2013 after his Alzheimer’s diagnosis; it was released in June this year. The seventh of 12 kids, Campbell dropped out of school when he was 14, moving first to Wyoming and then to Los Angeles, where in the early 60s he appeared on the records of Elvis Presley, Merle Haggard and the Byrds. His first hit came in 1967 with By the Time I Get to Phoenix, written by Jim Webb. They would go on to collaborate on numerous records such as Wichita Lineman and the ballad Galveston.

He is survived by his wife, Kim Campbell, and eight children.

The Outsourcing of War

The Trump administration has a brilliant idea on how to deael with the conundrum of the 16 year war in Afghanistan: privatize it by outsourcing it to a private mercenary army.

Trump White House weighs unprecedented plan to privatize much of the war in Afghanistan
By Jim Michaels, USA Today

The White House is actively considering a bold plan to turn over a big chunk of the U.S. war in Afghanistan to private contractors in an effort to turn the tide in a stalemated war, according to the former head of a security firm pushing the project.

Under the proposal, 5,500 private contractors, primarily former Special Operations troops, would advise Afghan combat forces. The plan also includes a 90-plane private air force that would provide air support in the nearly 16-year-old war against Taliban insurgents, Erik Prince, founder of the Blackwater security firm, told USA TODAY.

The unprecedented proposal comes as the U.S.-backed Afghan military faces a stalemate in the war and growing frustration by President Trump about the lack of progress in the war. [..]

Prince said the plan will cost less than $10 billion a year, significantly lower than the more than $40 billion the Pentagon has budgeted this year.

The prospect of accomplishing more with less money could appeal to a career businessman like Trump.

Prince, who has met frequently with administration officials to discuss his plan, is the brother of Trump’s education secretary, Betsy Devos.

In a CNN panel discussion, Michael D’Antonio, author of The Truth About Trump, blasted the idea as one more way that the Trump is looting the US Treasury to enrich himself and his billionaire friends.

Then there is the Trump Organization the president has said he stepped away from to let his sons operate. D’Antonio recalled the press conference where candidate Trump appeared with a table full of file folders.

“We all knew most of them were empty,” he said. “We still are waiting for good information about the reality of these properties. So, it really does give a lot of us pause for concern.”

He brought up a what the public response would have been if there was an “Obama hotel” or “Bush resort.”

“There would be no end to the criticism of those presidents,” D’Antonio continued. “And rightfully so. This is why it’s so problematic for someone in that highest office to have such far flung business dealings. Today we hear that there’s contemplation of using a mercenary army in Afghanistan that is owned by his Education Secretary’s brother. You know, this is getting to the point where it looks like they’re looting the presidency for their own gain.”

Prince is making the rounds of cable news shows push his agenda which, he revealed would include taking over the hashish and heroin trade from the Taliban and making a profit for himself. He put that forth this morning on MSNBC in an interview with Stephanie Ruhle and Ali Veshi. The conversation is at the opening of the second video. (H/t to Frances Langum at Crooks and Liars. You can read the full transcript there.)

More Zombie TPP

As have I, Dean Baker has taken note of the recent spate of stories lamenting the abandonment of the Trans Pacific Partnership. Mostly the argument is- Trump Bad, Trump Kill TPP, TPP Good!

That is the shallowest, most cynical non-reasoned pleading I’ve heard in a long time. Look, I don’t like Trump but appealing to my personal antipathy to promote a trade policy that advocates Corporate Courts with superior jurisdiction to the Federal and State Judiciary (Investor State Dispute System) and guarantees protection for notional and potential profit over demonstrated damages as well as turning a blind eye to actual, factual chattel slavery (Malaysia) using it as a bludgeon to depress the wages of United States workers for minuscule benefits which mostly go to the wealthiest .01% is a dog that just won’t hunt.

I may have been born but it wasn’t yesterday.

My optimistic self tells me this is the last gasp of a dying Neo Liberal system that even under this regime could simply not sustain itself for long. My pessimistic side says that rather than accept the inevitable they will continue to stick stakes up the butts of long dead corpses in the hopes we will get tired or discouraged.

Media Continue to Mourn the Loss of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
by Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research
07 August 2017

Wow, we could have had another $10 billion in agricultural output after 15 years, if only Donald Trump had not pulled the plug. Hmm, $10 billion in additional agricultural output in 2032, is that a big deal?

Well, if we turn to the International Trade Commission (ITC) report cited in the piece, we see that it amounts to 0.5 percent of projected agricultural output in 2032. That’s about equal to six months of normal growth of the agricultural economy. This means that, according to the ITC report, with the TPP in effect, the agricultural economy would be producing roughly as much on January 1, 2032 as it would otherwise be producing on July 1, 2032 without the TPP.

Is this a “lifeline” for the agricultural economy?

There is also reason to be wary of the ITC report, since these models have been incredibly bad at predicting the outcome of past trade deals.

It’s also worth commenting on the apparent horror with which Politico views the possibility, “rival exporters such as Australia, New Zealand and the European Union to negotiate even lower tariffs with importing nations.” In the good old days, economists used to believe that the United States was helped by stronger trading partners. This was one reason the U.S. generally supported the process of economic integration that led to the European Union.

If other countries remove barriers between them, this could make some of their goods better positioned relative to U.S. exports, but it can also lead to more rapid growth in these countries, which will increase demand for U.S. exports. While both effects are likely to be small relative to the size of U.S. production, it is entirely possible that the growth effect will exceed the substitution effect. Long and short, there is no need for reasonable people to be terrified by the prospect of other countries crafting trade deals.

Is the NYT Required to Lie to Push Trade Agreements?
by Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research
08 August 2017

I understand people can have reasonable differences of opinion on trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but why is it that the proponents have to insist, with zero evidence, that not doing the deal was an economic disaster? Yes, I know the political argument, which seemed to arise late in the game, that U.S. standing in the world has collapsed because we didn’t folllow through on the TPP. But, let’s just stick with the economics.

Yesterday, Politico ran a lengthy piece saying that the U.S. pullout from the TPP undermined the hopes for a revival of rural America. It cited as evidence a report from the United States International Trade Commission that projected the deal would increase agricultural output by 0.5 percent when fully phased in 15 years from now. Seriously folks, a 0.5 percent increase in output is going to save rural America? That’s 3 months of normal growth, who are you trying to fool?

The NYT joins the act this morning with a news article that starts out by pointing to the costs from the Trump adminstration’s ambiguities on trade policy. While the piece makes many reasonable points, it then turns to the losses from pulling out from the TPP.

While the piece tells us how important the Japanese beef market is, it would have been useful to get some sense of proportion. According to the piece, Japan’s entire market is $1.5 billion annually. U.S. beef production is currently $60 billion. This means that if U.S. producers were able to secure half of Japan’s market, a very impressive accomplishment for a country halfway across the world, it would raise the demand for U.S. beef by 1.3 percent.

The piece also misleads readers on the nature of global markets. If Australia gets preferred access to Japan’s beef market, then some of the beef that Australia used to export to other countries will be diverted to Japan. This will open up new export markets for U.S. beef. It is worth noting that, while the piece includes the exuberant praise of the TPP from Mr. Bacus, it does not quote or cite any critics of the deal.

The piece then turns to the tariffs imposed on Canadian softwood lumber, ostensibly because Canada subsidizes its lumber exports.

It’s not clear where Bloomberg gets its data, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that softwood lumber prices have increased by 9.7 percent over the last year, just over half of the 18 percent figure cited in the piece. We are currently building more (.PDF) than 600,000 new homes a year, with an average sales price of almost $380,000.

This puts the total value of new homes in the range of $220 billion. If we paid 24 percent more on $5.7 billion in softwood imported from Canada, as a result of the tariff, this would increase the cost by roughly $1.4 billion. That would imply an increase in costs of a bit more than 0.6 percent of the sales price. That is not altogether trivial, but it seems unlikely to wreck the housing industry.

The Breakfast Club (Wrestling)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:30am (ET) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

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This Day in History

President Richard Nixon says he’ll resign; Thieves stage Britain’s ‘Great Train Robbery’; Nazi saboteurs in the U.S. executed during World War II; Mexico’s Emiliano Zapata and actor Dustin Hoffman born.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

The art of living is more like wrestling than dancing.

Marcus Aurelius

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Marcy, Marcy, Marcy Media Madness!

Is she on a book tour or something? I’d call her a friend of the site except I suspect she hardly remembers we exist. In any event it’s always a genuine pleasure to promote her, here she is talking with The Real News about Robert Mueller and Russiagate.

Does Mueller’s Russia Probe Threaten Trump?

Meet The New Boss

Just as James Comey is not the knight in shining armor and beacon of integrity his current propaganda suggests, so too Christopher Wray, his successor as Head of the FBI, is no saint worthy of hagiography.

Marcy Wheeler explains on Democracy Now.

Wray Confirmed as FBI Director as Questions Swirl over His Past Record & Close Ties to Big Business

The Breakfast Club (Mountains)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:30am (ET) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

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This Day in History

U.S. embassies bombed in E. Africa; Congress OKs powers to expand the Vietnam War; The Battle of Guadalcanal begins; Kon-Tiki ends its journey; Comedy icon Oliver Hardy and news anchor Peter Jennings die.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

I think the most un-American thing you can say is, ‘You can’t say that.’

Garrison Keillor

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