North Korea's successful testing of a long-range ballistic missile shows the rogue nation is close to achieving its long-stated, illegal ambition to develop intercontinental nuclear weapons. This is disconcerting, particularly given the belligerence and apparent recklessness of the country's young dynastic dictator, Kim Jong-un.
The test – which demonstrated North Korea had built a missile capable of reaching the US and Australia – is not only alarming in itself, but also because it was so foreseeable yet unpreventable. It was foreseeable because it was the latest in a long series of tests. It was unpreventable because of North Korean leaders' determination to build a nuclear military capability.
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Russia, China join forces over North Korea
Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping are calling on the US to sign up to a de-escalation plan for the Korean peninsula ahead of the G20 summit.
Mr Kim and his forebears have shown disdain for international law, and for economic sanctions and a range of measures from the UN, the US, South Korea, Japan and others. After this latest test, it would be prudent to assume that North Korea has all but reached its goal. It has developed nuclear warheads and, now, the means to drop them on distant targets. The final step is putting the two together.
The situation, which menaces the entire world, is complex and delicately poised. It pits North Korea's backers – China and Russia – against a coalition including the UN, the US and most industrialised nations.
But the US-led coalition – which dumped its long-standing "strategic patience" policy (doing nothing militarily provocative, while applying economic sanctions and hoping) earlier this year – appears to have few remaining options. The US has decided the status quo is not an option.
China is key. The US has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, but it knows Chinese intervention has the best prospect of calming and ultimately defusing the Korean Peninsula.
China's interests lie in propping up North Korea, as a communist state buffer. China, with Russia's support, has offered to broker the end of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs, but on the condition the US reduce its presence in the region and cease its military exercises with South Korea. That could prove unacceptable. A solution might lie in China giving North Korea permanent security cover under a nuclear umbrella.
The world is observing a grave impasse, where many are threatened but only a few have influence. Those few will gather in Germany in coming days for a meeting of the G20, the club of the richest nations. It's not on their official agenda, but the presidents of China, the US and Russia will have an opportunity to retrieve the situation from the brink to which it has been dragged by North Korea.
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