Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast
- period
- 28-day
- 12-month
high
high
med
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are eight main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 August to 16 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 24 August to 28 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 July to 28 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 August to 8 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 12 August to 16 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Melbourne weather: 100kph wind gusts hit Victoria, emergency crews attend hundreds of calls
23:52 EST
Melbourne is mopping up after wind gusts of more than 100 kilometres per hour hit the Victorian capital, while a severe weather warning remains in place across the state.
Water Police advise to avoid the ocean as wild weather approaches the south-west
19:58 EST
Water Police are urging people across Western Australia's southern half, including Perth, to avoid the sea or ocean amid "atrocious" conditions.
Unseasonable warmth heads east, taking records with it
14:43 EST
The past few days has seen the warmest July days in more than 50 years in parts of Western Australia, Saturday was South Australia and Victoria's turn and on Sunday the focus will be on New South Wales and Queensland.
