The superannuation saving pool is forecast to reach $3 trillion in just three years, up from $2.4 trillion now.
Continuing strong net contributions of between $40 and $50 billion a year and supportive investment markets are behind the fairly bullish forecast by stockbrokers Bell Potter.
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Targeting superfluous super
The Productivity Commission says we have too many superannuation accounts. Peter Martin explains the logic.
The key asset class is Australian shares. About a quarter of superannuation is invested in securities listed on the Australian sharemarket - equal to about 30 per cent of the market's capitalisation.
Lafitani Sotiriou, a senior analyst Bell Potter and co-author of the note on super and advice, expects not-for-profit industry funds to continue to gain market share at the expense, mainly, of the "retail" funds, such as those owned by the big four banks and AMP.
Self managed super remains the largest sector, representing around 30 per cent of super money.
However, its market share has remained static in recent years as more DIY fund trustees and members move into the retirement phase, drawing money from their funds.
Since 2004, industry funds have taken market share from all other sectors. It has risen from just under 15 per cent to almost 23 per cent as at December last year.
Over the same period, retail funds' market share has declined from about 33 per cent to just over 25 per cent.
Though retail funds are still in second place, Sotiriou expects they will continue to lose market share over the 3-year forecast period.
Another factor that could contribute to a further loss of market share is the trend for financial advisers to not align themselves with large institutions, such the big four banks or AMP.
The five institutions have the biggest adviser networks in Australia, accounting for over a third of all advisers. However, in the first six months of this year they lost more than 400 advisers, with AMP accounting for half of the losses.
"AMP has lost more than 1000 advisers since June 2014," Mr Sotiriou said.
"There's a serious strategic issue with AMP's direction and leadership."