And that's it for Markets Live for the day and the week.
Thanks for reading and for your comments.
Have a great and relaxing weekend and see you again Monday morning from 9.
Australian equity markets by Friday gave up the week's gains, despite enjoying the best day of the year on Tuesday, as a bond sell-off weighed on local equities.
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 55 points, or 1 per cent, on Friday to 5704, ending the week 18 points, or 0.3 per cent, lower. The broader All Ordinaries index shed 0.4 per cent over the five trading days, to 5743.9.
The losses came despite almost $10 billion in dividends paid to investors over the week, which traders had hoped would provide support to the index in what is traditionally a strong month. Listed property stocks were the worst performing corner of the market, falling 4 per cent as Australian 10-year government bond yields reached 2.73 per cent on Friday afternoon, their highest in over three months.
The market volatility is long overdue, said Argonaut executive director of corporate stockbroking James McGlew. "This has been one of the more volatile weeks we've had a while, but this was a long time coming."
The big four banks drove a $28 billion rally on Tuesday as the South Australian opposition announced its plan to vote against that state's bank tax, but ended the week mixed. ANZ lost 1.3 per cent on Friday and 0.4 per cent over the week. CBA shed 1.1 per cent, taking its weekly losses to 0.8.
NAB was down 0.9 per cent Friday but still up 0.7 per cent over the five sessions. Westpac shed 0.8 per cent on Friday but held on to a 0.3 per cent gain over the week.
Gains in the iron ore price helped the big miners limit losses in the index mid-week. But the sector came under some pressure on Friday, as the Department of Industry, Science and Innovation lowered its price forecasts for both coal and iron ore.
Pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue fell 1.3 per cent on Friday, and 0.6 per cent over the week.
BHP Billiton managed to close 1.2 per cent higher on Friday, making it one of the week's biggest gainers. It rose 5.6 per cent over the five sessions as analysts and investors warmed to the idea the miner would hive off assets. Rio tinto added 1.1 per cent on Friday and 2.8 per cent over the week.
Also helping on Friday were the ASX 200's largest lithium miners. The ASX's most highly-shorted stock, Orocobre, as well as Galaxy Resources, got a small boost on Friday as South Australia's government announced that Tesla would be building the world's largest lithium battery in the state. Orocobre rose 2.2 per cent on Friday and 8.9 over the week.
Galaxy Resources added 5.0 per cent on Friday. It's been on something of a rally of late, gaining 26.9 per cent over the five sessions, the largest gain on the ASX200.
As if billions of dollars of liquefied natural gas project cost overruns and the prospect of a glut well into the next decade weren't enough, proposed export sites now face increased competition from the world's biggest producer.
Qatar's announcement Tuesday that it would double production from the giant North Field comes as more than two-thirds of new projects due in the next decade from Texas to Australia are yet to take investment decisions. The sheikdom, which started some of the largest plants at the end of the last decade, has one of the lowest break-even prices, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Extending existing export facilities will likely be more successful than starting from scratch at new sites, according to Bernstein analyst Oswald Clint. Bernstein in May said more than two-thirds of LNG projects chasing to fill an expected supply gap in the mid-2020s are unlikely to be built. With a geographical location midway between major markets in Asia and Europe and access to cheap gas, expanded plants in the Middle East are the most competitive, according to the International Gas Union, a Vevey, Switzerland-based industry lobby group.
"The incremental LNG from Qatar is likely to be relatively low cost, so certainly able to undercut supplies from potential new greenfield projects," said Martin Lambert, managing director of Brightlands Energy Ltd., a UK consultant. "It will probably also undercut incremental supplies from the US or Australia."
The Gulf nation announced plans to boost annual LNG production to 100 million tonnes within seven years from 77 million tons now, potentially retaining its position of the biggest supplier even as Australia expands exports following $200 billion of investments.
Qatar's location makes it "well positioned geographically to be competitive and earn attractive returns" supplying both Asia and Europe, seen as the global sink for the fuel, according to Claudio Steuer, director of SyEnergy, a UK-based energy consultant.
National Australia Bank is the latest major lender to threaten tougher credit controls on new loans and reassess its appetite for risk as household debt blows out to record highs.
Meg Bonighton, general manager for home lending, said she wants to stop borrowers from taking on too much debt and "putting undue pressure on their lifestyles" as the federal government and regulators continue to warn about its unsustainable growth.
It has taken the unusual step of claiming it will "start declining loans with a high loan to income statement" without specifying the new, lower thresholds that will trigger the refusal.
It follows similar moves by CBA, Westpac and AMP to review credit limits, remove high-risk products and continue turning the screws on interest-only loans by raising rates, loan to value ratios and serviceability criteria.
Lenders are reviewing underwriting standards as debt soars, incomes stagnate, property values continue to rise in Melbourne and Sydney, and evidence grows that households are increasingly drawing down credit from property equity.
But lenders still need mortgage growth to fuel profits and are refocusing on lower-risk principal and interest borrowers, those with less total debt, including credit card and personal loans, and demonstrable capacity to service the loan.
Australia has revised down the value of its resources and energy export earnings in the financial year ended June by 4.6 percent, or nearly $10 billion, due largely to falling prices for iron ore, its most valuable export.
The downward revision to $205 billion mainly reflects an earlier than expected decline in iron ore prices since the previous forecasts were published three months ago, the Department of Industry, Science and Innovation said.
Iron ore, Australia's top source of export revenue, should average $US62.40 in calendar 2017, down from an earlier forecast of $US65.20, the department said.
Iron ore has averaged about $US74 a tonne so far this year, implying prices will continue to deteriorate in the second half. The price was last quoted at $US63.28 a tonne.
"Global resource and energy commodity demand growth, particularly for steel making commodities, is expected to slow in the next two years, driven largely by a slowdown in infrastructure spending and construction activity in China," the department's chief economist, Mark Cully said.
"Lower demand growth is expected to adversely affect iron ore and metallurgical coal prices," he said.
Australia mined a record 873.5 million tonnes of iron ore in fiscal 2017, making it the world's top producer, department figures show.
The iron ore price was forecast to decline to $US48 a tonne in 2018, the department said.
The cuts were in line with other markets forecasts, with Citi recently slashing its 2017 average price forecast for iron ore to $US61 a tonne from $70, and to $US50 from $US53 for next year.
The department forecast metallurgical coal prices at an average $US191.30 a tonne in 2017, falling to $US137 next year.
It also revised down its copper price forecast for 2017 to $US5,667 a tonne from $US5,879 previously, contributing to the revisions in export earnings.
Elon Musk's Tesla and French wind farm developer Neoen have won a landmark tender to supply a 100 megawatt battery to shore up South Australia's fragile power grid, the first large scale battery contract to be awarded in Australia and one of the largest in the world to date.
South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill said the battery would be up and running in time for next summer - when further blackouts are feared.
"South Australia has been leading the nation in renewable energy – now we are leading the world in battery storage," Mr Weatherill said.
"Battery storage is the future of our national energy market, and the eyes of the world will be following our leadership in this space."
The battery will have capacity of 129 megawatt hours - enough to run for just more than an hour at maximum capacity - and will be the largest installed in the world to date, Neoen deputy chief executive Romain Desrousseaux said.
The battery will be paired with Neoen's Hornsdale wind farm to provide additional energy security when the wind drops during periods of high electricity demand.
The battery tender is part of a $550 million energy security plan announced by the Weatherill government in March in response to the wind and solar power reliant state's summer of blackouts, electricity shortages and soaring prices.
It was announced a few days after Tesla founder Elon Musk promised to solve SA's energy woes "in a hundred days or its free" in response to a challenge from Atlassian founder Michael Cannon-Brookes. The company successfully installed a larger battery in California last year.
Investors have hammered Coca-Cola Amatil after a double-shot of bad news the day before.
On Thursday it emerged that not only did supermarket giant Woolworths decline to stock its new sugar-free drink, but pizza chain Domino's was switching its beverage preference to Pepsi as part of a cost-saving drive.
The company's share price has fallen by more than 5.6 per cent to $8.44 following a dip of more than 3 per cent on Thursday. It is now testing multi-year lows.
Morgan Stanley analysts described the loss of the Domino's contract as a "turning point", even though the soft drink giant could probably weather the 1 per cent loss of revenue.
They slashed their price target for the stock from $10 to $8.
"By itself the contract loss is manageable, but given Domino's very strong brand, we think that it may provide validation to the Pepsi-Schweppes portfolio such that smaller operators are also inclined to make the switch," they said.
That was particularly so as small fast food outlets were pushing to maintain profitability in the face of rising wages, especially in the franchise sector, they said.
Macquarie Wealth's analysts were also downbeat in a note titled "Falling Dominoes".
"[Coca-Cola Amatil's] decision to introduce a third no sugar cola into the Australian market appears overly ambitious," the note says, in reference to the Woolworths decision which the analysts described as "unsurprising".
Sydney home owners now spend 45 per cent of their household income servicing their mortgage repayments, despite benefiting from record low interest rates.
The deterioration of housing affordability is best seen in the NSW capital, where the contrast between dwelling price growth and wage increases has been stark, new figures from CoreLogic and the Australian National University show.
"Capital cities are generally more expensive across all measures than regional markets despite household incomes generally being higher in capital cities," CoreLogic residential analyst Cameron Kusher said.
"Sydney is the least affordable housing market across most measures. Sydney's price to income ratio is significantly higher than all other regions analysed."
While the RBA kept the benchmark cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent this week and few economists expect rates to rise until next year, it suggests that when they do, Sydney households will come under pressure to meet their already-steep repayments.
But the figures also highlight the disparity between regions when it comes to housing affordability. While affordability on a price-to-income and saving for a deposit basis has deteriorated in Sydney and Melbourne - where households spend 39.4 per cent of income to service a mortgage with an 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio - it is relatively unchanged or slightly improved in most other capital cities, the figures show. In addition, lower mortgage rates have given some households additional income to reinvest or spending elsewhere.
At the end of March 2017, the discounted variable mortgage rate for owner occupiers was 4.55 per cent and a mortgage required 38.9 per cent of a household's income. Nationally, the proportion of household income needed to service a mortgage peaked at 51 per cent in June 2008, when mortgage rates were 8.85 per cent.
In Brisbane the proportion of income required to service a monthly mortgage is 31.8 per cent, Adelaide 34.5 per cent, Perth 32 per cent, Hobart 31.1 per cent, Darwin 23.7 per cent and Canberra 29.2 per cent.
Upmarket accessories retailer OrotonGroup is in play after British-based fund manager Highclere International sold its entire 7 per cent stake, the AFR's Street Talk column reports.
Highclere sold 2.9 million shares through Angus Aitken's new outfit, Aitken Murray Capital Partners, just before the market opened on Thursday at $1 a share.
It is understood Highclere's stake was not bought by institutional investors but by a listed player, with industry sources pointing at Gazal Corp, which distributes brands such as Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger.
Gazal Corp chief Patrick Robinson, a former senior executive at David Jones, could not be contacted for comment.
Solomon Lew's cashed up Premier Investments also springs to mind, but given the bath Premier has taken on its $101 million stake in Myer and its ambitious rollout plans for Smiggle, a tilt at Oroton seems unlikely.
Gerry Harvey was also mentioned as a potential buyer of the stake but ruled himself out on Thursday night.
Highclere was Oroton's fourth largest shareholder after the founding Lane family, Caledonia Funds Management chief investment officer Will Vicars and IOOF Holdings. It emerged with a substantial stake in 2015, when Oroton shares were trading between $2.12 and $2.69.
Highclere's decision to cut its losses speaks volumes about the prospects for Oroton, which has downgraded profit guidance twice this year and is expected to fall into the red in 2017.
OrotonGroup appointed investment bank Moelis & Co last month to conduct a strategic review and the board is considering options including a sale, a capital raising or refinancing of debt facilities after receiving approaches from potential buyers.
It is understood that a private equity firm with interests in retail - possibly Anchorage Capital Partners or Allegro Funds - has also taken a look at Oroton's books. A trade player is also said to have shown some interest and explored either making an outright offer or injecting capital into the company.
The Lane family, which owns at least 21 per cent, has ruled out privatising the company and appears to be willing to see its stake diluted or to exit altogether.
The thinly traded Oroton is pretty much unchanged this morning at $1.
No surprise that shares are sharply lower in early trade, following the global moves overnight.
The losses are indiscriminate - only eight stocks in the top 200 are higher at time of writing, and the benchmark index is off 47 points or 0.8 per cent at 5712.
Following the offshore sell-off in fixed income, Aussie 10-year bond yields have jumped 7 basis points to 2.71 per cent. The local dollar is down only a touch against its big brother at 75.8 US cents.
The morning's worst performer is Coca-Cola Amatil, as investors continue to dump the bottler as analysts downgrade the stock in the wake of yesterday's news that it had lost a contract with Domino's. It's off 5.7 per cent.
BHP is a rare winner, up 0.1 per cent as analysts upgrade the stock on the hope the Big Australian will spin off assets under the recently installed chairman.
SPONSORED POST
The bond market is getting interesting, and not in a good way, writes IG strategist Chris Weston:
Today is a fixed income story, with the ramifications of the trends developing in both nominal and 'real' (or inflation adjusted) bond yields having increasing bearings in equities, currencies and more progressively emerging markets.
The lead we have been dealt from offshore markets is undoubtedly negative and has been driven most prominently from the European bond markets. One just has to look at the German fixed income market, which to be fair was selling off into the ECB minutes (21:30 aest), but caught another leg higher with the market getting quite upset at the view that the bank was considering removing its easing bias on asset purchases. This really should surprise too greatly, but the impact of a market so long duration is that we have seen long-term interest rates selling-off fairly heavily, with the German 10-year bund up settling at the highest levels since January 2016. Adjust this for inflation expectations and we can see German (if we use this as a proxy of Europe) 'real' yields at the highest levels since February 2016.
In the US, most importantly we are seeing the five-year 'real' treasury breaking out to 25 bp and the highest levels of the year and the equity markets has caught on that this really does represent tighter financial conditions - the very thing the Federal Reserve wanted to see! Tech doesn't like this one bit, but neither does emerging markets and we can see the EEM ETF (iShares MSCI Emerging market ETF) falling 1.2%.
Hoo-boy.
Bellamy's Australia has put its shares in a trading halt as it determines the impact of the suspension of a key licence by Chinese authorities overnight at its recently acquired Victorian cannery, Camperdown Powder.
Last month, it raised $60 million to help fund the purchase of the cannery, which was supposed to deliver the company a key licence to allow its products to be sold into China, where regulations change in 2018.
The acquisition of a 90 per cent interest in Camperdown settled three days ago.
Camperdown Powder operates a canning line unit with capacity for up to 8000 tonnes a year, but Bellamy's estimates that it could be expanded to up to 15,000 tonnes within a year.
"The trading halt is requested to allow the Company to determine the reasons and impact of the Camperdown's suspension of its CNCA license by the China authorities overnight," Bellamy's said in a statement to the ASX.
The CNCA licenses are overseen by The Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People's Republic of China, which oversees foreign food imports.
China is in the midst of a number of changes to its import regime. Under new rules that will come into place in January 1, 2018, all manufacturers of infant formula products will need to be registered with the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA).
At the time the Camperdown deal, Bellamy's said the Camperdown acquisition "provides an opportunity to reduce key regulatory risks, by securing the element of the supply-chain responsible for controlling the CFDA registration submission" and "strengthens Bellamy's competitive position, by addressing trade and consumer concerns regarding CFDA registration and a contract manufacturing model".
In the last year Bellamy's has been rocked by plunging sales and earnings, the loss of its chief executive and a boardroom coup that saw new directors appointed.
And here are the overnight market moves by the numbers:
Market Highlights
- SPI futures down 23 points or 0.4% to 5676
- AUD -0.3% to 75.83 US cents (Overnight range: 0.7577 - 0.7615)
- On Wall St, Dow -0.7%, S&P 500 -0.9%, Nasdaq -1%
- In New York, BHP +1.5%, Rio-0.4%
- In Europe, Stoxx 50 -0.5%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.5%, DAX -0.6%
- Spot gold -0.2% to $US1224.53 an ounce
- Brent crude +0.3% to $US47.91 a barrel
- Iron ore -2.1% to $US61.96 a tonne
- Dalian iron ore +0.6% to 469 yuan
- Steam coal +0.2% to $US83.20, Met coal -0.3% to $US158.50
- LME aluminium +0.8% to $US1944 a tonne
- LME copper +0.2% to $US5851
- 10-year bond yields: US 2.37%, Germany 0.56%, Australia 2.64%
On the economic agenda:
- Chinese foreign reserves data
- Tonight major US employment release in non-farm employment and unemployment rate
- Bank of England's Carney speaks, and Canada releases its jobs figures
- G20 summit begins tonight
Stocks to watch:
- Keep an eye on "bond proxies" such as listed property, utilities and infrastructure stocks
- Coca-Cola Amatil cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley
- Silver Lake raised to neutral at UBS
- Beadell raised to neutral at UBS
As we mentioned, the drop in global government bonds gathered pace overnight, spilling over to equities, as German yields climbed to their highest level in 18 months in a sign that a hawkish shift by central bankers is penetrating the market.
While analysts described the moves as technical, most remain bearish on bonds, as investors adjust to comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week that spurred speculation policy makers will announce a tapering of bond purchases before the end of the year. The sell-off extended into US hours, as 10-year Treasury yields reached the highest since May, and the selling should extend into local trade today.
Bonds across Europe fell after the results of a French debt auction showed a drop in excess demand for 30-year securities. Trading volumes in bund futures contracts jumped after the auction results were announced, sparking the surge in yields. The move gathered momentum as the yield rose above 0.51 percent, which Citigroup highlighted as "strong support."
"There was some heavy supply from France which I think started it," Antoine Bouvet, an interest-rate strategist at Mizuho International in London, said. "The magnitude of the sell-off is excessive compared to what you would expect from a soft auction."
According to FTN Financial strategist Jim Vogel, the underwhelming French bond auction was "a small event" but one that the "new bearish sentiment is incapable of taking in stride."
The yield on German 10-year bunds rose nine basis points to 0.56 per cent, reaching the highest level since January 2016.
There is "probably no justification for bund yields to trade above 0.50 percent," Bouvet said.
France's auction of 30-year debt saw a bid-cover ratio of 1.53 times, compared with 1.93 at the previous sale on Jan. 5.
Also making their mark were minutes of the ECB's policy meeting in June, which showed "broad agreement" among members to retain the easing bias and cautioned that "even small and incremental changes in communication could be perceived as signalling a more fundamental change in policy direction."
While the monetary authority is "not in any hurry to tighten policy, the break-out of the range in bunds that has prevailed for more than six months does suggest more upside for yields," Jan Von Gerich, a strategist at Nordea Bank, said.
The hawkish tone from developed-nation central banks continued to roil financial markets, with US stocks falling the most in seven weeks, Treasury yields rising to levels last seen in May and crude settling below $US46 a barrel.
The 10-year yield climbed to 2.37 per cent, with DoubleLine Capital's CEO Jeffrey Gundlach saying the selling has only just begun. The S&P 500 Index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in seven weeks, with yield-sensitive shares leading losses. The dollar weakened following a private report that showed the pace of US hiring moderated before Friday's government payrolls data. The yield on benchmark German bunds hit the highest since January 2016.
Central banks from Asia to Europe and the US have struck a more hawkish tone in the past few weeks as they seek to remove nearly a decade of accommodation. The rise in yields has started to weigh on equity markets just as data show growth in the American economy may be moderating.
European Central Bank officials considered when they met last month removing a pledge to increase bond-buying, while ADP Research Institute data showed companies adding fewer workers to US payrolls in June than than the prior month.
Back to topGood morning and welcome to the Markets Live blog for Friday.
Your editor today is Patrick Commins.
This blog is not intended as investment advice.
Fairfax Media with wires.
1 new post(s) available. View post(s) Dismiss