Patersons' research head takes leave

Patersons Securities' well known head of research Robert Brierley has left the Perth-based stockbroking firm, which is believed to be keen to increase its focus on the east coast.

Patersons Securities' well known head of research Robert Brierley has left the Perth-based stockbroking firm, which is believed to be keen to increase its focus on the east coast.

Brierley is one of Perth's most senior research analysts with his in-depth knowledge across the state's resources sector, including the mid cap sector often overlooked by the top tier broking houses, one of the firm's point of difference.

Brierley spent more than a decade at Perth-based Patersons over the years, with his most recent stint since October 2012.

He left the firm on Friday.

Brierley has started as head of research at RM Capital but is also said to be open to exploring other corporate opportunities.

Patersons has appointed a Melbourne-based head of research, Cathy Moises.

Moises was most recently head of investor relations at Perseus Mining. Prior to this she was held roles as a senior analyst at Evans & Partners and Citi.

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Small caps discount at 16pc, CS says

Small cap fundies can start the new financial year with a spring in their step.

Small caps are trading at a bigger than usual discount to large caps, according to Credit Suisse.
Small caps are trading at a bigger than usual discount to large caps, according to Credit Suisse.

Small cap fundies can start the new financial year with a spring in their step. 

There is arguably a bit of a tailwind for small cap investors, with the small caps index discount trading at a bigger than usual discount to large cap rival. 

Credit Suisse analysts reckon the large caps index is trading at 17.7-times forecast one-year forward earnings, while small caps at back at 14.9-times. 

The 16 per cent discount is well above the long-term 12 per cent discount and the highest in more than one year, the analysts told clients on Monday morning. 

The question is whether that means small caps will be back on the radar of large investors searching for value.  

It comes after a tough year for small cap fundies, who missed out strong performance by large caps stocks which were fuelled by optimism in the US and global economies.

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Off balance sheet the key to any Telstra securitisation, JPMorgan says

Telstra would only securitise its NBN payments if ratings agencies allowed it to hold the new securities off balance sheet.

Telstra would only securitise its NBN payments if ratings agencies allowed it to hold the new securities off balance sheet. 

That's the view from JPMorgan analysts on Monday morning, who weighed into the NBN securitisation debate ahead of Telstra's full-year result on August 17. 

JPMorgan analysts told clients that Telstra could raise $13 billion to $18 billion if securitised its 30 year NBN payments, and use the proceeds to buy back shares and protect its dividend yield. 

"However, the bigger issue is whether the securitization could be deconsolidated and left off the balance sheet," JPMorgan analysts told clients.

"Off-balance sheet would be more accretive than on, as the latter would equate to taking out straight debt.

"We expect Telstra would only go ahead with the securitization if it's deconsolidated, at least in the view of the credit agencies." 

JPMorgan said its $13 billion to $18 billion proceeds was based on the net present value of net cash flow stream at a 4.25 per cent to 5.25 per cent discount rate. 

The analysts said if Telstra could hold the securities off balance sheet, the company could repurchase up to $20 billion of shares. That would the dividend payout ratio up to 13 per cent, increase earnings per share by 8 per cent on 2022 financial year forecasts and be 7 per cent accretive to shareholders. 

"Should the securitization be consolidated from both an accounting and agency perspective, we believe the company would be less than likely to go ahead with it as it equates to taking out straight debt. Accretion in such a scenario is minimal," JPMorgan told clients. 

It comes as fund managers and analysts prepare for Telstra to update the market on its capital management review next month. 

Telstra flagged that it was considering options for its NBN Co payments, including securitisation, at its investor day last November. 

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Inghams heads contenders for reporting season blocks

Preparation are under way for the biannual block trades season.

Preparation are under way for the biannual block trades season. 

Street Talk understands equities desks have started testing fast money hedge funds and domestic long-only funds' appetite for a host of block trade contenders which could be unleased next month. 

The escrow release block trades are a legacy of private equity vendors making the most of an open IPO window over the past four years. Often firms have had to retain a 20 per cent to 50 per cent stake to get their company listed, and sit on that stake for at least 12 to 18 months. 

Equities desks expect it'll be a hard sell next month, with fundies extra cautious on anything from private equity at the moment.

But everything has a price, and so the process of price discovery has begun. 

The biggest new contender is chicken producer Inghams Group, which listed at $3.15 a share last November and will start this week at north of $3.40. Private equity firm TPG and its associates retained a 47 per cent stake at the float, now worth close to $650 million. 

There is no shortage of brokers lining up to test the potential Inghams trade. They know fundies have generally been impressed by Inghams and its no-nonsense management team over the past nine months, and applaud Inghams' move to sign multi-year supply agreements with some of its biggest customers including Woolworths. 

It also helps that six equities desks are also familiar with the story, having helped sell the float last year, and Inghams was added to the top-300 index in March. 

Whether TPG chooses to sell is another matter. The buyout firm has partner Ricky Lau and former dealmaker Simon Harle on Inghams' board. Inghams results are expected in late August. 

Other contenders for post-escrow blocks this reporting season include Bain's $880 million stake in MYOB (which has been out of a post-trade escrow for about six weeks already), as well as Ironbridge's $150 million stake in Bravura Solutions and GTCR Funds' $280 million investment in traffic advertising company GTN Ltd. 

Equities desks would welcome the deal flow, after a quiet half for equity capital markets activity and doubts about whether the IPO market will open following the upcoming earnings season. 

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IFM Investors, Netflow get serious about WestConnex, take pitches

The contenders are lining up to take on Transurban Group for NSW's $16.8 billion roads project, WestConnex.

The contenders are lining up to take on Transurban Group for NSW's $16.8 billion roads project, WestConnex. 

Street Talk can reveal two big global investors are actively seeking investment banks to help fund and advise on their respective bids and took pitches last week, while others are in Australia talking to potential bid partners, government representatives and advisers as they decide whether to take part in the upcoming auction. 

It is understood Australia's IFM Investors and Spanish-backed Netflow received written pitches from investment banks on Friday, and are separately expected to interview and mandate banks before the end of the month.

JPMorgan, Citi, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are among banks seeking a role for WestConnex's auction, and were expected to respond to the request for proposals. 

IFM Investors needs little introduction to NSW Treasury, dealmakers or potential bid partners, having been an active buyer of NSW infrastructure in the past decade. 

The firm is already one of the country's biggest infrastructure owners with stakes in NSW's Port Botany and Port Kembla, electricity distributor Ausgrid and airports in Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, among others. 

IFM is also no stranger to tollroads deals. The firm owns a minority stake in Sydney's Eastern Distributor motorway, alongside Transurban Group and UniSuper, and two tollroads in North America. 

Meanwhile Netflow is the company owned by Spanish tollroad operator Cintra and local infrastructure investor Plenary and put together to bid for new Australian road projects. It wants to create competition for Transurban, which has a stranglehold on tollroads in Sydney and Brisbane. 

And if Netflow wants to make a splash and show it is serious about its quest to push Transurban, WestConnex would be a very rare chance to land a meaningful portfolio in one strike. 

It remains to be seen whether IFM and Netflow's interest will extend to the auction. 

NSW has said it wants to sell at least a 51 per cent stake in Sydney Motorway Corporation, which owns tolling rights to the WestConnex roads. Analysts reckon the portfolio is worth $4 billion to $8 billion, depending on the deal structure. 

Of course IFM and Netflow would have to topple Transurban if either is to get its hands on WestConnex. 

Transurban has made its interest in the new roads well known, and is preparing its own bid with the help of a number of investment banks. 

NSW Treasury is seeking to have the auction up and running in October, with a deal finalised by mid next year. Goldman Sachs and Allens are advising on the sale. 

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