Brexit

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Brexit is the process by which the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union (EU).[1] The British government led by David Cameron held a referendum on the issue on 23 June 2016; 51.89% voted to leave the European Union. On 19 June 2017, negotiations to leave the European Union started.

The UK remains a full member of the European Union as the terms of withdrawal are being negotiated.[2] British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the UK government would not seek permanent membership of the single market or of the customs union[3][4] and promised a Great Repeal Bill that would repeal the European Communities Act and incorporate existing European Union law into UK domestic law.[5]

The UK joined the European Communities in 1973,[6][7] confirming membership in a referendum in 1975. Although initially withdrawal from the EC was advocated mainly by Labour Party and trade union figures, from the 1990s the main advocates of withdrawal were the newly founded UK Independence Party (UKIP) and an increasing number of Conservative MPs.

The term "Brexit"[edit]

Brexit (like its early variant, Brixit)[8] is a portmanteau of "British" and "exit". It was derived by analogy from Grexit, referring to a hypothetical withdrawal of Greece from the eurozone (and possibly also the EU).[9][10] The term Brexit may have first been used in reference to a possible UK withdrawal from the EU by Peter Wilding, in a Euractiv blog post on 15 May 2012 (given as the first attestation in the Oxford English Dictionary).[11][12][10] The terms "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit" are much used unofficially,[13] and are understood to describe the prospective relationship between the UK and the EU after withdrawal, ranging from hard, that could involve the UK trading with the EU like any other non-EU-member country under World Trade Organization rules but with no obligation to accept free movement of people, to soft, that might involve retaining membership of the EU single market for goods and services and at least some free movement of people, according to European Economic Area rules.[14]

Historical background[edit]

Since 1977, both pro- and anti-European views have had majority support at different times, with some dramatic swings between the two camps.[15] In the United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum of 1975, two-thirds of British voters favoured continued EC membership. The highest-ever rejection of membership was in 1980, the first full year of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's term of office, with 65% opposed to and 26% in favour of membership.[15] After Thatcher had negotiated a rebate of British membership payments in 1984, those favouring the EC maintained a lead in the opinion polls, except during 2000, as Prime Minister Tony Blair aimed for closer EU integration, including adoption of the euro currency, and around 2011, as immigration into the United Kingdom became increasingly noticeable.[15] As late as December 2015 there was, according to ComRes, a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU, albeit with a warning that voter intentions would be considerably influenced by the outcome of Prime Minister David Cameron's ongoing EU reform negotiations, especially with regards to the two issues of "safeguards for non-Eurozone member states" and "immigration".[16] The following events are relevant.

EU roots and British accession (1957–1973)[edit]

See also: Accession of the United Kingdom to the European Communities

The UK was not a signatory of the three original treaties that were incorporated into what was then the European Communities, including the most well known of these, the 1957 Treaty of Rome, establishing the European Economic Community (EEC). The UK's applications to join in 1963 and 1967 were vetoed by the President of France, Charles de Gaulle, who said that "a number of aspects of Britain's economy, from working practices to agriculture" had "made Britain incompatible with Europe" and that Britain harboured a "deep-seated hostility" to any pan-European project.[17] Once de Gaulle had relinquished the French presidency in 1969, the UK made a third and successful application for membership. The question of sovereignty had been discussed at the time in an official Foreign and Commonwealth Office document (FCO 30/1048); this was made open to the public in January 2002 under the rules for availability after thirty years. It listed among "Areas of policy in which parliamentary freedom to legislate will be affected by entry into the European Communities": Customs duties, Agriculture, Free movement of labour, services and capital, Transport, and Social Security for migrant workers. The document concluded (paragraph 26) that it was advisable to put the considerations of influence and power before those of formal sovereignty.[18] The Treaty of Accession was signed in January 1972 by the then prime minister Edward Heath, leader of the Conservative Party.[19] Parliament's European Communities Act 1972 was enacted on 17 October, and the UK's instrument of ratification was deposited the next day (18 October),[20] letting the United Kingdom's membership of the EC come into effect on 1 January 1973.[21]

Referendum of 1975[edit]

Main article: United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975

In 1975, the United Kingdom held its first ever national referendum on whether the UK should remain in the European Communities. The opposition Labour Party, led by Harold Wilson, had contested the October 1974 general election with a commitment to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership of the EC and then hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EC on the new terms.[22] All of the major political parties and the mainstream press supported continuing membership of the EC. However, there were significant divides within the ruling Labour Party; a 1975 one-day party conference voted by two to one in favour of withdrawal,[23] and seven of the 23 cabinet ministers were opposed to EC membership,[24] with Harold Wilson suspending the constitutional convention of Cabinet collective responsibility to allow those ministers to publicly campaign against the government.

On 5 June 1975, the electorate were asked to vote yes or no on the question: "Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?" Every administrative county and region in the UK returned majority "Yes" votes, apart from the Shetland Islands and the Outer Hebrides. With a turnout of just under 65%, the outcome of the vote was 67.2% in favour of staying in, and the United Kingdom remained a member of the EC.[25] Support for the UK to leave the EC in 1975, in the data, appears unrelated to the support for Leave in the 2016 referendum.[26]

From Referendum to Maastricht Treaty (1975–1992)[edit]

Comparison of results of 1975 and 2016 referendums

In 1979, the United Kingdom opted out of the newly formed European Monetary System (EMS), which was the precursor to the creation of the euro currency.

The opposition Labour Party campaigned in the 1983 general election on a commitment to withdraw from the EC without a referendum.[27] It was heavily defeated; the Conservative government of Margaret Thatcher was re-elected. The Labour Party subsequently changed its policy.[27]

In 1985, the United Kingdom ratified the Single European Act—the first major revision to the Treaty of Rome—without a referendum, with the full support of the Thatcher government.

In October 1990—despite the deep reservations of Margaret Thatcher, who was under pressure from her senior ministers—the United Kingdom joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), with the pound sterling pegged to the deutschmark.

From Maastricht Treaty to present[edit]

Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister in November 1990, amid internal divisions within the Conservative Party that arose partly from her increasingly Eurosceptic views. The United Kingdom was forced to withdraw from the ERM in September 1992, after the pound sterling came under pressure from currency speculators (an episode known as Black Wednesday). The resulting cost to UK taxpayers was estimated to be in excess of £3 billion.[28][29]

As a result of the Maastricht Treaty, the European Communities became the European Union on 1 November 1993.[30] The new name reflected the evolution of the organisation from an economic union into a political union.[31] As a result of the Lisbon Treaty, which entered into force on 1 December 2009, the Maastricht Treaty is now known, in updated form as, the Treaty on European Union (2007) or TEU, and the Treaty of Rome is now known, in updated form, as the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (2007) or TFEU.

The Referendum Party was formed in 1994 by Sir James Goldsmith to contest the 1997 general election on a platform of providing a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.[32] It fielded candidates in 547 constituencies at that election, and won 810,860 votes or 2.6% of the total votes cast.[33] It failed to win a single parliamentary seat because its vote was spread out across the country, and lost its deposit (funded by Goldsmith) in 505 constituencies.[33]

Role of UKIP (1993–2016)[edit]

The UK Independence Party (UKIP), a Eurosceptic political party, was also formed, in 1993. It achieved third place in the UK during the 2004 European elections, second place in the 2009 European elections and first place in the 2014 European elections, with 27.5% of the total vote. This was the first time since the 1910 general election that any party other than the Labour or Conservative parties had taken the largest share of the vote in a nationwide election.[34] UKIP's electoral success in the 2014 European election has been documented as the strongest correlate of the support for the leave campaign in the 2016 referendum.[35]

In 2014, UKIP won two by-elections, triggered by defecting Conservative MPs, and in the 2015 general election took 12.6% of the total vote and held one of the two seats won in 2014.[36]

Controversy on the European Court of Human Rights in 2013[edit]

The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) was drafted in 1950, i.e. before the European Community, largely under British leadership, and its court (ECtHR) was established in 1953. EU institutions are bound under article 6 of the Treaty of Nice to respect human rights under the Convention, over and above for example the Law of the United Kingdom.[37] The Court was criticised especially within the Conservative Party for ruling in favour of British prisoners obtaining the right to vote, and this topic was a major factor prior to the Brexit referendum.[38][39][40][41][42]

Euroscepticism (1993–2016)[edit]

See also: Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom

In a statistical analysis published in April 2016, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University defined Euroscepticism as the wish to sever or reduce the powers of the EU, and conversely Europhilia as the desire to preserve or increase the powers of the EU. According to this definition, the British Social Attitudes (BSA) surveys show an increase in euroscepticism from 38% (1993) to 65% (2015). Euroscepticism should however not be confused with the wish to leave the EU: the BSA survey for the period July–November 2015 shows that 60% backed the option "continue as an EU member", and only 30% backed the option to "withdraw".[43]

Referendum of 2016[edit]

Main article: United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

Negotiations for EU reform[edit]

Main article: United Kingdom renegotiation of European Union membership, 2015–16

In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron rejected calls for a referendum on the UK's EU membership, but suggested the possibility of a future referendum to gauge public support.[44][45] According to the BBC, "The prime minister acknowledged the need to ensure the UK's position within the European Union had 'the full-hearted support of the British people' but they needed to show 'tactical and strategic patience'."[46]

Under pressure from many of his MPs and from the rise of UKIP, in January 2013, Cameron announced that a Conservative government would hold an in–out referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017, on a renegotiated package, if elected in 2015.[47]

The Conservative Party unexpectedly won the 2015 general election with a majority. Soon afterwards the European Union Referendum Act 2015 was introduced into Parliament to enable the referendum. Cameron favoured remaining in a reformed European Union, and sought to renegotiate on four key points: protection of the single market for non-eurozone countries, reduction of "red tape", exempting Britain from "ever-closer union", and restricting EU immigration.[48]

The outcome of the renegotiations was announced in February 2016. Some limits to in-work benefits for new EU immigrants were agreed, but before they could be applied, a country such as the UK would have to get permission from the European Commission and then from the European Council.[49]

In a speech to the House of Commons on 22 February 2016, Cameron announced a referendum date of 23 June 2016, and commented on the renegotiation settlement.[50] He spoke of an intention to trigger the Article 50 process immediately following a leave vote, and of the "two-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit."[51]

Campaign groups[edit]

Main article: Campaigning in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

The official campaign group for leaving the EU was Vote Leave[52] after a contest for the designation with Leave.EU.[53][54]

A "Vote Leave" poster in Omagh, saying "We send the EU £50 million every day. Let's spend it on our NHS instead."

The official campaign to stay in the EU, chaired by Stuart Rose, was known as Britain Stronger in Europe, or informally as Remain. Other campaigns supporting remaining in the EU included Conservatives In,[55] Labour in for Britain,[56] #INtogether (Liberal Democrats),[57] Greens for a Better Europe,[58] Scientists for EU,[59] Environmentalists For Europe,[60] Universities for Europe[61] and Another Europe is Possible.[62]

Referendum result[edit]

Main article: Results of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

The result was announced on the morning of 24 June: 51.9% voted in favour of leaving the European Union, and 48.1% voted in favour of remaining a member of the European Union.[63][64] Comprehensive results are available from the UK Electoral Commission Referendum Results site. A petition calling for a second referendum attracted more than four million signatures,[65][66] but was rejected by the government on 9 July.[67]


United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
Choice Votes  %
Leave the European Union 17,410,742 51.89
Remain a member of the European Union 16,141,241 48.11
Valid votes 33,551,983 99.92
Invalid or blank votes 25,359 0.08
Total votes 33,577,342 100.00
Registered voters and turnout 46,500,001 72.21
Voting age population and turnout 51,356,768 65.38
Source: Electoral Commission[68]; UNDESA (UK VAP); US Census Bureau (Gibraltar VAP)
Referendum results (without spoiled ballots)
Leave:
17,410,742 (51.9%)		 Remain:
16,141,241 (48.1%)
▲
Results by region (left) and by local council district (GB) & UK Parliament constituency (NI) (right)
  Leave
  Remain

Political effects[edit]

Main article: Aftermath of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

After the result was declared, Cameron announced that he would resign by October.[69] He stood down on 13 July 2016, with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister after a leadership contest. George Osborne was replaced as Chancellor of the Exchequer by Philip Hammond, former Mayor of London Boris Johnson was appointed Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, and David Davis became Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lost a vote of confidence among his parliamentary party, and an unsuccessful leadership challenge was launched. On 4 July, Nigel Farage announced his resignation as leader of UKIP.[70]

Outside the UK, many Eurosceptic leaders celebrated the result, and expected others to follow the UK example. The right-wing Dutch populist Geert Wilders said that the Netherlands should follow Britain's example and hold a referendum on whether the Netherlands should stay in the European Union.[71] However, opinion polls in the fortnight following the British referendum show that the immediate reaction in the Netherlands and other European countries was a decline in support for Eurosceptic movements.[72]

Procedure for leaving the EU[edit]

Main article: United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union

Withdrawal from the European Union is governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. Under the Article 50 invocation procedure, a member notifies the European Council and there is a negotiation period of up to two years, after which the treaties cease to apply. Although terms of leaving may be agreed,[73] aspects such as trade may be difficult to negotiate until the UK has left the EU.[74]

Although the 2015 Referendum Act did not expressly require Article 50 to be invoked,[75] the UK government stated that it would expect a leave vote to be followed by withdrawal[76][77] despite government refusal to make contingency plans.[78] Following the referendum result, Cameron resigned and said that it would be for the incoming Prime Minister to invoke Article 50.[79][80]

Letter from Theresa May invoking Article 50

The Supreme Court ruled in the Miller case in January 2017 that the government needed parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50.[81][82] After the House of Commons overwhelmingly voted, on 1 February 2017, for the government's bill authorising the prime minister to invoke Article 50,[83] the bill passed into law as the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017. Theresa May signed the letter invoking Article 50 on 28 March 2017, which was delivered on 29 March by Tim Barrow, the UK's ambassador to the EU, to Donald Tusk.[84][85][86]

Reversibility[edit]

Main article: United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union § Reversibility

The issue of whether the UK's invocation of Article 50 can be revoked is unclear. The EU Commission[87] and the European Parliament Brexit committee[88] have said that reversal has to be agreed by the other EU countries while its author Lord Kerr has asserted that the Article 50 notification is reversible unilaterally.[89] Jean-Claude Juncker has said that the EU should not negotiate in a way that Britain would hold a second referendum.[90]

Negotiations[edit]

Main article: Brexit negotiations

Timing[edit]

The British and EU negotiators agreed that initial negotiations, relating especially to residency rights, would commence in June 2017 (immediately after the French presidential and parliamentary elections), and full negotiations, relating especially to trading agreements, could commence in October 2017 (immediately after the German federal election, 2017).[91][92][93] The first day of talks took place on 19 June.[94]

History[edit]

On 28 June 2016, five days after the referendum, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced to the German parliament the forthcoming EU negotiation position: the UK could only remain in the European Single Market (ESM) if the UK accepted EU migrants. There would be no cherrypicking (Rosinenpicken - raisin picking) of the ESM's four conditions (free movement of goods, capital, services and labour). While she expected the UK to remain an important NATO partner, the EU's priority was unity and self-preservation. She warned the UK not to delude itself.[95] The next day, European Council president Donald Tusk confirmed that the UK would not be allowed access to the European Single Market unless they accepted its four freedoms of movement for goods, capital, services, and people.[96]

In contrast, at her October 2016 party conference, Prime Minister Theresa May emphasised that ending the jurisdiction of EU law and free movement from Europe were priorities. She wished "to give British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate in the Single Market – and let European businesses do the same here", but not at the expense of losing sovereignty.[97][98]

In November 2016, Prime Minister Theresa May proposed that Britain and the other EU countries mutually guarantee the residency rights of the 3.3 million EU immigrants in Britain and those of the 1.2 million British citizens living on the Continent, in order to exclude their fates being bargained during Brexit negotiations.[99] Despite initial approval from a majority of EU states, May's proposal was blocked by European Council President Tusk and German Chancellor Merkel.[100]

In January 2017, the Prime Minister presented 12 negotiating objectives and confirmed that the UK government would not seek permanent single market membership.[101] The European Parliament's lead negotiator Guy Verhofstadt responded that there could be no "cherry-picking" by the UK in the talks.[102]

The statutory period for negotiation began on 29 March 2017, when the letter notifying withdrawal, signed by the United Kingdom's prime minister at 10 Downing Street, Westminster, was handed to the president of the European Council in Brussels. The letter calls for a "deep and special relationship" between the UK and the EU, and warns that failure to reach an agreement would result in EU-UK trade under World Trade Organisation terms, and a weakening of the UK's cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism. The letter suggests prioritising an early deal on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice-versa. In the letter, the Prime Minister reasons that as the EU leaders do not wish "cherry picking" of the European Single Market (ESM), the UK does not seek to remain within the ESM. Instead, the UK seeks a free trade agreement with the EU.[103] In response, German Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted that the EU would not discuss future cooperation without first settling the divorce, the European Parliament lead negotiator Guy Verhofstadt referred to the letter as "blackmail" with regard to the point on security and terrorism, and EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said the UK’s decision to quit the block was a "choice they will regret one day".[104]

On 29 April 2017, immediately after the first round of French presidential elections, the EU27 heads of state accepted, without discussion,[105] negotiating guidelines prepared by the President of the European Council.[106] The guidelines take the view that Article 50 permits a two-phased negotiation, whereby the UK first needs to agree to a financial commitment and to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, before the EU27 will entertain negotiations on a future relationship.[107] In the requested first phase of the withdrawal negotiation, the EU27 negotiators demand the UK pay a "divorce bill", initially estimated as amounting up to £52bn and then, after additional financial demands from Germany, France, and Poland, amounting to £92bn.[108] Nevertheless, a report of the European Union Committee of the House of Lords published on 4 March 2017 states that if there is no post-Brexit deal at the end of the two-year negotiating period, the UK could withdraw without payment.[109] Similarly, the Prime Minister insisted to EU Commission President Juncker that talks about the future UK-EU relationship should start early and that Britain did not owe any money to the EU under the current treaties.[110]

On the EU27 side, unflattering details of a four-way meeting between Prime Minister Theresa May, Brexit Minister David Davis, EU Commission President Juncker and his chief-of-staff Martin Selmayr were leaked to the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, presumably by Martin Selmayr.[111] According to the leaked description, Juncker claimed that Theresa May was "living in another galaxy" when suggesting that British and EU migrant rights could be rapidly negotiated and agreed in the course of June 2017. German Chancellor Angela Merkel concurred the next day by stating that there were "illusions" on the British side.[110] A few days later, Juncker disclaimed responsibility and called the leak a mistake, Der Spiegel magazine reported that Angela Merkel was annoyed with Juncker for the leak, while European Council President Tusk admonished participants to use discretion during the negotiations.[112] The background for German nervousness allegedly is the possibility that Britain may veto EU budget increases, which for example in the immediate term amount to 4 billion euros. A continued British veto would have far-reaching consequences and "will hurt us" according to German MEP Jens Geier.[113]

On 22 May 2017, the European Council authorised its negotiators to start the Brexit talks and it adopted its negotiating directives. [114] The first day of talks took place on 19 June, where Davis and Barnier agreed to prioritise the question of residency rights, while Davis conceded that a discussion of the Northern Irish border would have to await future trade agreements.[115]

On 22 June 2017 Prime Minister May guaranteed, at a European Council meeting in Brussels, that no EU citizen living legally in the UK would be forced to leave, and she offered that any EU citizen living in the UK for more than 5 years until an unspecified deadline between March 2017 and March 2019 would enjoy the same rights as a UK citizen, conditional on the EU providing the same offer to British expatriates living in the EU. The EU leaders did not immediately reciprocate the offer, with Council President Tusk objecting that the European Council is not a forum for the Brexit negotiations, and Commission president Juncker stating "I’m not negotiating here."[116]

The Prime Minister detailed her residency proposals in the House of Commons on 26 June 2017, but drew no concessions from EU negotiators,[117] who had declined to expedite agreement on expatriates by the end of June 2017,[118] and who are hoping for European courts to continue to have jurisdiction in the UK with regards to EU citizens, according to their negotiation aims published in May 2017.[119][120]

Post-Article 50 Legislation[edit]

Great Repeal Bill[edit]

Main article: Great Repeal Bill 2016

In October 2016, Theresa May promised a "Great Repeal Bill", which would repeal the European Communities Act 1972 and restate in UK law all enactments previously in force under EU law. This bill will be introduced in the May 2017 parliamentary session and enacted before or during the Article 50 negotiations; it would not come into force until the date of exit. It would smooth the transition by ensuring that all laws remain in force until specifically repealed.[121] Such a bill could raise constitutional issues regarding the devolution settlements with the UK nations, particularly in Scotland.[122]

Additional government bills[edit]

A report published in March 2017 by the Institute for Government commented that, in addition to the Great Repeal Bill, primary and secondary legislation will be needed to cover the gaps in policy areas such as customs, immigration and agriculture.[123] The report also commented that the role of the devolved legislatures was unclear, and could cause problems, and as many as fifteen new additional Brexit Bills may be required, which would involve strict prioritisation and limiting Parliamentary time for in-depth examination of new legislation.[124]

The House of Lords continued to publish a series of reports on Brexit related subjects including:

Voting on the final outcome[edit]

Replying to questions at a parliamentary committee about Parliament's involvement in voting on the outcome of the negotiations with the EU, the Prime Minister said that "delivering on the vote of the British people to leave the European Union" was her priority. The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, commented that the government did not want a vote at the beginning of the process, to trigger Article 50, nor a vote at the end.[125]

Consequences of withdrawal for the United Kingdom[edit]

Immigration[edit]

Immigration was cited as the second-most important reason for those voting to Leave. However, forecasts indicate that immigration flows to the UK will remain relatively high after Brexit.[126] Several thousand British citizens resident in other EU countries have after the referendum applied for citizenship where they live, since they fear losing the right to work there.[127]

Economic effects[edit]

Main article: Economic effects of Brexit

During the referendum, the economic arguments were a major area of debate. Remainers, including the UK Treasury, argued that being in the EU has a strong positive effect on trade and as a result the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.[128][129] Supporters of withdrawal from the EU have argued that the cessation of net contributions to the EU would allow for some cuts to taxes or increases in government spending.[130]

After the referendum, the Institute for Fiscal Studies published a report funded by the Economic and Social Research Council which warned that Britain would lose up to £70 billion in reduced economic growth if it didn't retain Single Market membership, with new trade deals unable to make up the difference.[131] One of these areas is financial services, which are helped by EU-wide "passporting" for financial products, which the Financial Times estimates indirectly accounts for up to 71,000 jobs and 10 billion pounds of tax annually[132] and there are concerns that banks may relocate outside the UK.[133]

On 5 January 2017, Andy Haldane, the Chief Economist and the Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics at the Bank of England, admitted that forecasts predicting an economic downturn due to the referendum were inaccurate and noted strong market performance after the referendum,[134][135][136] although some have pointed to prices rising faster than wages.[137]

Brexit requires relocating the offices and staff of the European Medicines Agency and European Banking Authority, currently based in London.[138] The EU is also investigating the feasibility of restricting the clearing of euro-denominated trades to Eurozone jurisdictions, attempting to end London's dominance in this sector. [139]

Effect on academic research[edit]

Main article: Brexit and arrangements for science and technology

The UK received more from the EU for research than it contributed[140] with universities getting a large proportion of their research income from the EU.[141] All funding for net beneficiaries from the EU, including universities, was guaranteed by the government in August 2016.[142] Before the funding announcement, a newspaper investigation reported that research projects were reluctant to employ British researchers due to uncertainties over funding.[143]

Currently the UK is part of the European Research Area and the UK is likely to wish to remain an associated member.[144]

Scotland[edit]

As predicted before the referendum,[145] the Scottish Government announced that officials were planning a second independence referendum on the day after the UK voted to leave and Scotland voted to stay.[146] In March 2017, the SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon requested a second Scottish independence referendum for 2018 to 2019 (before Brexit is expected to take effect).[147] The Prime Minister immediately rejected the requested timing (although not the referendum itself).[148] The referendum was approved by the Scottish Parliament on 28 March 2017. Sturgeon is calling for a "phased return" of an independent Scotland back to the EU.[149]

After the referendum, Nicola Sturgeon also stated that Scotland might refuse consent for legislation required to leave the EU,[150] though some lawyers argue that Scotland cannot block Brexit.[151]

International agreements[edit]

The Financial Times approximates there to be 759 international agreements, spanning 168 non-EU countries, that the UK would no longer be a party to upon leaving the EU.[152] This figure does not include World Trade Organisation or United Nations opt-in accords, and excludes "narrow agreements", which may have to be renegotiated as well.[152]

Options for continuing relationship with the EU[edit]

Main article: Continuing UK relationship with the EU

The UK's post-Brexit relationship with the remaining EU members could take several forms. A research paper presented to the UK Parliament in July 2013 proposed a number of alternatives to membership which would continue to allow access to the EU internal market. These include remaining in the European Economic Area,[153] negotiating deep bilateral agreements on the Swiss model[153] or exit from the EU without EEA membership or a trade agreement under the WTO Option. There may be an interim deal between the time the UK leaves the EU and when the final relationship comes in force.

Relations with the Republic of Ireland[edit]

The UK/Republic of Ireland border at Killeen marked only by a speed sign marked in km/h

The Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom as a whole share, since the 1920s, a Common Travel Area without border controls. According to statements by Theresa May and Enda Kenny, it is intended to maintain this arrangement.[154] After Brexit, in order to prevent illegal migration across the open Northern Irish land border into the United Kingdom, the Irish and British governments suggested in October 2016 a plan whereby British border controls would be applied to Irish ports and airports. This would prevent a "hard border" arising between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.[155] However, this agreement was never official and was met by opposition from political parties in the Republic of Ireland[156] and there is still great uncertainty in relation to a 'hard border' between the Republic and Northern Ireland.[157]

On 23 March 2017, it was confirmed that British immigration officials would not be allowed to use Irish ports and airports in order to combat immigration concerns following Brexit.[158] A referendum for the reunification of Ireland was suggested by Sinn Féin leader Martin McGuinness immediately after the UK EU referendum results were announced.[159] Creating a border control system between Ireland and Northern Ireland could jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement established in 1998.[160] In April 2017 the European Council agreed that, in the event of Irish reunification, Northern Ireland would rejoin the EU.[161]

Border with France[edit]

The President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand, stated in February 2016 that "If Britain leaves Europe, right away the border will leave Calais and go to Dover. We will not continue to guard the border for Britain if it's no longer in the European Union," indicating that the juxtaposed controls would end with a leave vote. French Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron also suggested the agreement would be "threatened" by a leave vote.[162] These claims have been disputed, as the Le Touquet 2003 treaty enabling juxtaposed controls was not an EU treaty, and would not be legally void upon leaving.[163]

After the Brexit vote, Xavier Bertrand asked François Hollande to renegotiate the Touquet agreement,[164] which can be terminated by either party with two years' notice.[165] Hollande rejected the suggestion, and said: "Calling into question the Touquet deal on the pretext that Britain has voted for Brexit and will have to start negotiations to leave the Union doesn't make sense." Bernard Cazeneuve, the French Interior Minister, confirmed there would be "no changes to the accord". He said: "The border at Calais is closed and will remain so."[166]

Gibraltar and Spain[edit]

Main article: Gibraltar after Brexit

During the campaign leading up to the referendum[167] the Chief Minister of Gibraltar warned that Brexit posed a threat to Gibraltar's safety.[168] Gibraltar overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU. After the result Spain's Foreign Minister renewed calls for joint Spanish–British control of the peninsula.[169] These calls were strongly rebuffed by Gibraltar's Chief Minister[170] and questions were raised over the future of free-flowing traffic at the Gibraltar–Spain border.[171] The British government states it will only negotiate on the sovereignty of Gibraltar with the consent of its people.[172]

Consequences of withdrawal for the EU[edit]

Structure and budget[edit]

Shortly after the referendum, the German parliament published an analysis on the consequences of a Brexit on the EU and specifically on the economic and political situation of Germany.[173] According to this, Britain is, after the United States and France, the third-most important export market for German products. In total Germany exports goods and services to Britain worth about €120 billion annually, which is about 8% of German exports, with Germany achieving a trade surplus with Britain worth €36.3 billion (2014). Should there be a "hard Brexit", exports would be subject to WTO customs and tariffs. The trade weighted average tariff is 2.4%, but the tariff on automobiles, for instance, is 9.7%, so trade in automobiles would be particularly affected; this would also affect German automobile manufacturers with production plants in the United Kingdom. In total, 750,000 jobs in Germany depend upon export to Britain, while on the British side about three million jobs depend on export to the EU. The study emphasises however that the predictions on the economic effects of a Brexit are subject to significant uncertainty.

According to the Lisbon Treaty (2009), Council of the EU decisions made by qualified majority voting can only be blocked if at least four members of the Council form a blocking minority. This rule was originally developed to prevent the three most populous members (Germany, France, Britain) from dominating the Council of the EU.[174] However, after a Brexit of the economically liberal British, the Germans and like-minded northern European countries (the Irish, Dutch, Scandinavians and Baltic states) would lose an ally and therefore also their blocking minority.[175] Without this blocking minority, other EU states could overrule Germany and its allies in questions of EU budget discipline or the recruitment of German banks to guarantee deposits in troubled southern European banks.[176]

With Brexit, the EU would lose its second-largest economy, the country with the third-largest population and the financial centre of the world.[177] Furthermore, the EU would lose its second-largest net contributor to the EU budget (2015: Germany €14.3 billion, United Kingdom €11.5 billion, France €5.5 billion).[178]

Thus, the departure of Britain would result in an additional financial burden for the remaining net contributors, unless the budget is reduced accordingly: Germany, for example, would have to pay an additional €4.5 billion for 2019 and again for 2020; in addition, the UK would no longer be a shareholder in the European Investment Bank, in which only EU members can participate. Britain's share amounts to 16%, €39.2 billion (2013), which Britain would withdraw unless there is an EU treaty change.[179]

Council of the European Union[edit]

The departure of the UK is expected to have a major effect on the EU. In many policy votes Britain had allied with the relatively more economically liberal Germany who together with other northern EU allies had a blocking minority of 35% in the Council of the European Union. The exit of the UK from the European Union means that this blocking minority can no longer be assembled leading to speculation that it could enable the other EU countries to enforce specific proposals such as relaxing EU budget discipline or providing EU-wide deposit guarantees within the banking union.[180][176]

European Parliament[edit]

UK MEPs are expected to retain full rights to participate in the European Parliament up to the Article 50 deadline. However, there have been discussions about excluding UK MEPs from key committee positions.[181]

The EU will need to decide on the revised apportionment of seats in the European Parliament in time for the next European Parliament election, expected to be held in June 2019, when the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs will have vacated their seats. In April 2017, a group of European lawmakers discussed what should be done about the vacated seats. One plan, supported by Gianni Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, is to replace the 73 seats with a pan-European constituency list; other options which were considered include dropping the British seats without replacement, and reassigning some or all of the existing seats from other countries to reduce inequality of representation.[182][183]

Fishing[edit]

The combined EU fishing fleets land about 6 million tonnes of fish per year,[184] of which about 3 million tonnes are from UK waters.[185] The UK’s share of the overall EU fishing catch is only 750,000 tonnes.[186] This proportion is determined by the London Fisheries Convention of 1964 and by the EU's Common Fisheries Policy. The British government announced in July 2017 that it would end the 1964 convention in 2019. Loss of access to UK waters will particularly affect the Irish fishing industry which obtains a third of its catch there.[187]

Public opinion and comment[edit]

Public comment up to February 2017 UK white paper[edit]

Various EU leaders have said that they will not start any negotiation before the UK formally invokes Article 50. Jean-Claude Juncker ordered all members of the EU Commission not to engage in any kind of contact with UK parties regarding Brexit.[188] In October 2016, he stated that he was agitated that the British had not developed a sense of community with Europeans during 40 years of membership; Juncker denied that Brexit was a warning for the EU, envisaged developing an EU defence policy without the British after Brexit, and rejected a suggestion that the EU should negotiate in such a way that Britain would be able to hold a second referendum.[189] On 5 November 2016, Juncker reacted to reports of some European businesses seeking to make agreements with the British government, and warned: "I am telling them [companies] that they should not interfere in the debate, as they will find that I will block their path."[190] Juncker stated in February 2017 that the UK would be expected to pay outstanding commitments to EU projects and pensions as part of the withdrawal process, suggesting such bills would be "very hefty."[191]

German foreign secretary Frank-Walter Steinmeier met Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson on 4 November 2016; Johnson stressed the importance of British-German relationships, whereas Steinmeier responded that the German view was that the UK should have voted to stay in the EU and that the German priority now was to preserve the remaining union of 27 members. There could be no negotiations before the UK formally gives notice. A long delay before beginning negotiations would be detrimental. Britain could not keep the advantages of the single market but at the same time cancel the "less pleasant rules".[192]

Newly appointed prime minister Theresa May made clear that negotiations with the EU required a "UK-wide approach". On 15 July 2016, she said: "I have already said that I won't be triggering article 50 until I think that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations – I think it is important that we establish that before we trigger article 50."[193]

According to The Daily Telegraph, the Department for Exiting the European Union spent over £250,000 on legal advice from top Government lawyers in two months, and has plans to recruit more people. Nick Clegg said the figures showed the Civil Service was unprepared for the very complex negotiations ahead.[194]

In the wake of the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, the Department for International Trade (DIT) for striking and extending trade agreements between the UK and non-EU states was created by Prime Minister Theresa May, shortly after she took office on 13 July 2016.[195] It employs about 200 trade negotiators[196] and is overseen by the Secretary of State for International Trade, currently Liam Fox.

On 17 January 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May, announced a series of 12 negotiating objectives in a speech at Lancaster House. These consist of an end to European Court of Justice jurisdiction, withdrawal from the single market with a "comprehensive free-trade agreement" replacing this, a new customs agreement excluding the common external tariff and common commercial policy, an end to free movement of people, co-operation in crime and terrorism, collaboration in areas of science and technology, engagement with devolved administrations, maintaining the Common Travel Area with Ireland, and preserving existing workers' rights.[197]

The Government has stated its intention to "secure the specific interests of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as those of all parts of England". Through the Joint Ministerial Committee on EU Negotiations (JMC(EN)), the Government intends to involve the views of the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Ireland Assembly in the process of negotiating the UK's exit from the EU. For instance, at the January 2017 meeting of the JMC(EN), the Scottish Government's proposal to remain in the European Economic Area was considered.[198]

Public comment pre- and post-Article 50 notification[edit]

EU negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament's chief negotiator has said that: "All British citizens today have also EU citizenship. That means a number of things: the possibility to participate in the European elections, the freedom of travel without problem inside the union. We need to have an arrangement in which this arrangement can continue for those citizens who on an individual basis are requesting it." The suggestion being an “associate citizenship”.[199]

An EU meeting to discuss Brexit has been called for 29 April, Donald Tusk stating that the "priority would be giving "clarity" to EU residents, business and member states about the talks ahead". Michel Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, has called for talks to be completed by October 2018 to give time for any agreement to be ratified before the UK leaves in March 2019.[200]

Sinn Féin has called for a referendum to create a united Ireland, following the Northern Ireland majority decision (56% to 44%) to vote no to Brexit and the 2 March election to the Northern Ireland Assembly wherein Sinn Féin increased its number of seats.[201]

In early May, Jean-Claude Juncker said that the UK leaving the EU was a "tragedy" and that it is partly the responsibility of the EU. "The EU, in many respects has done too much, especially the Commission", including "too much regulation and too many interferences in the lives of our fellow citizens". The European Commission has, following the "Better regulation" initiative, in place since before Brexit, reduced the number of legislative proposals from 130 to 23 per year.[202][203]

Post-referendum opinion polling[edit]

Following the EU referendum, there have been several opinion polls on the question of whether the UK was "right" or "wrong" to vote to leave the EU. The results of these polls are shown in the table below.

Date(s) conducted Right Wrong Undecided Lead Sample Conducted by Polling type Notes
21-22 Jun 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,670 YouGov Online
19 Jun 2017 Brexit negotiations begin.[204]
12-13 Jun 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,651 YouGov Online
8 Jun 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017
5-7 Jun 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 2,130 YouGov Online
30-31 May 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,875 YouGov Online
24-25 May 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 2,052 YouGov Online
16-17 May 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,861 YouGov Online
3-14 May 2017 45% 41% 14% 4% 1,952 GfK Online
9-10 May 2017 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,651 YouGov Online
2-3 May 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 2,066 YouGov Online
25-26 Apr 2017 43% 45% 12% 2% 1,590 YouGov Online
20-21 Apr 2017 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,590 YouGov Online
18-19 Apr 2017 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,727 YouGov Online
12-13 Apr 2017 45% 43% 12% 2% 2,069 YouGov Online
5-6 Apr 2017 46% 42% 11% 4% 1,651 YouGov Online
29 Mar 2017 The United Kingdom invokes Article 50.[205]
26-27 Mar 2017 44% 43% 13% 1% 1,957 YouGov Online
20-21 Mar 2017 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,627 YouGov Online
1-15 Mar 2017 46% 41% 13% 5% 1,938 GfK Online
13-14 Mar 2017 44% 42% 15% 2% 1,631 YouGov Online
10-14 Mar 2017 49% 41% 10% 8% 2,003 Opinium Online
27-28 Feb 2017 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,666 YouGov Online
21-22 Feb 2017 45% 45% 10% 0% 2,060 YouGov Online
12-13 Feb 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 2,052 YouGov Online
30-31 Jan 2017 45% 42% 12% 3% 1,705 YouGov Online
17-18 Jan 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,654 YouGov Online
17 Jan 2017 Theresa May makes Lancaster House speech, setting out the UK Government's negotiating priorities.[206]
9-12 Jan 2017 52% 39% 9% 13% 2,005 Opinium Online
9-10 Jan 2017 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,660 YouGov Online
3-4 Jan 2017 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,740 YouGov Online
18-19 Dec 2016 44% 44% 12% 0% 1,595 YouGov Online
4-5 Dec 2016 44% 42% 14% 2% 1,667 YouGov Online
28-29 Nov 2016 44% 45% 11% 1% 1,624 YouGov Online
14-15 Nov 2016 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,717 YouGov Online
19-20 Oct 2016 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,608 YouGov Online
11-12 Oct 2016 45% 44% 11% 1% 1,669 YouGov Online
2 Oct 2016 Theresa May makes Conservative Party Conference speech, announcing her intention to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[101]
13-14 Sep 2016 46% 44% 10% 2% 1,732 YouGov Online
30-31 Aug 2016 47% 44% 9% 3% 1,687 YouGov Online
22-23 Aug 2016 45% 43% 12% 2% 1,660 YouGov Online
16-17 Aug 2016 46% 43% 11% 3% 1,677 YouGov Online
8-9 Aug 2016 45% 44% 12% 1% 1,692 YouGov Online
1-2 Aug 2016 46% 42% 12% 4% 1,722 YouGov Online
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.[207]


In July 2017, LSE/Opinium research indicated that 60% of Britons wanted to retain EU citizenship after Brexit.[208]

Cultural responses to the referendum vote[edit]

For main article on Brexit in Art and Literature, see Brexit in Literature and the Arts.

Brexit in the visual arts[edit]

The response of artists and writers to Brexit has tended to be negative, reflecting a reported overwhelming percentage of people involved in Britain's creative industries voting against leaving the European Union.[209]

Responses by visual artists to Brexit include a mural, painted in May 2017, by the secretive graffiti artist Banksy near the ferry port at Dover in southern England. It shows a workman using a chisel to chip off one of the stars on the European Union Flag.[210]

In his 2017 art exhibition at the Serpentine Gallery in London, the artist Grayson Perry showed a series of ceramic, tapestry and other works of art dealing with the divisions in Britain during the Brexit campaign and in its aftermath. This included two large ceramic pots, Perry called his Brexit Vases, standing on plinths ten feet apart, on the first of which were scenes involving pro-European British citizens, and on the second scenes involving anti-European British citizens. These were derived from what Perry called his 'Brexit tour of Britain.'[211]

Brexit in novels[edit]

One of the first novels to engage with a post-Brexit Britain was Rabbitman by Michael Paraskos (published 9 March 2017). Rabbitman is a dark comic fantasy in which the events that lead to the election of a right-wing populist American president, who happens also to be a rabbit, and Britain's vote to leave the European Union, were the result of a series of Faustian pacts with the Devil. As a result, Rabbitman is set partly in a post-Brexit Britain in which society has collapsed and people are dependent on European Union food aid.[212]

Mark Billingham’s Love Like Blood (published 1 June 2017) is a crime thriller in which Brexit sees a rise in xenophobic hate crime.[213] In the novel The Remains of the Way (published 6 June 2017), David Boyle imagines Brexit was a conspiracy led by a forgotten government quango, still working away in Whitehall, originally set up by Thomas Cromwell in the sixteenth century during the reign of King Henry VIII, and now dedicated to a protestant Brexit.[214]

Post-Brexit Britain is also the setting for Amanda Craig's The Lie of the Land (published 13 June 2017), a satirical novel set ten years after the vote to leave the European Union, in which an impoverished middle class couple from Islington in north London are forced to move from the heart of the pro-European Union capital, to the heart of the pro-Brexit countryside in Devon.[215]

Brexit is also the baseline for Douglas Board’s comic political thriller Time of Lies (published 23 June 2017). In this novel, the first post-Brexit general election in 2020 is won by a violent right-wing former football hooligan called Bob Grant. Board charts the response to this of the hitherto pro-European Union metropolitan political elite.[216]

Stanley Johnson's Kompromat (scheduled for July 2017) is a political thriller that suggests the vote to leave the European Union was a result of Russian influence on the referendum, although Johnson has insisted his book is not intended to point the finger at Russia's secret services, but is 'just meant to be fun.'[217]

Brexit in theatre[edit]

In June 2017 the National Theatre in London presented a play by Carol Ann Duffy, entitled My Country; a work in progress. An allegorical work, the play uses the device of a convention called by the goddess Britannia, who is concerned about the future of the British people.[218] The play differs from some artistic responses in that Duffy and the National Theatre based the attitudes of the characters in part on the responses of ordinary people in interviews that were conducted by the regional offices of the UK Arts Councils, but excluding responses from London and the south-east of England, where most people voted not to leave the EU. As a result, according to Dominic Cavendish, writing in The Daily Telegraph, "the bias is towards the Leave camp".[219]

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Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]

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